OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 5

[JD1]

It seems to me that a lot of people don't get that you should still social distance when wearing a mask. I'm not sure the messaging on this has been clear enough.

All in all it's just covid fatigue imo. Younger adults never took it that seriously to begin with, then things start opening up, their already lower guards get lowered and away you go. People are generally tired of it and it's not surprising at all to me that with the "modelled" numbers never materializing and numbers trending down, people just relaxed. Hopefully things tighten up a bit and we see this thing plateau a bit and then head down again

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[Upgrayedd]

More concerning than this virus to me is the massive divide, attacks on both sides and constant virtue signaling and fear mongering, this virus has seemingly been a light one considering the numbers and target demographic...cant imagine if this one changes or the next one comes in worse...say one that attacked the large majority of the work force and or the youth. I can't really think of a positive solution right now, I'm hoping we come up with something, what were doing right now isn't working imo.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

More concerning than this virus to me is the massive divide, attacks on both sides and constant virtue signaling and fear mongering, this virus has seemingly been a light one considering the numbers and target demographic...cant imagine if this one changes or the next one comes in worse...say one that attacked the large majority of the work force and or the youth. I can't really think of a positive solution right now, I'm hoping we come up with something, what were doing right now isn't working imo.

Isn't society doing that with damned near everything these days?

Seems there's a determined group out there that profits on dividing society. Pushing the Alex Jones style stuff, the "if it bleeds, it leads" style media, the influencers, the followers....all just a mish mash of crap.

Can't even have a damned coffee cup in winter without some group having an aneurysm anymore.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Isn't society doing that with damned near everything these days?

Seems there's a determined group out there that profits on dividing society. Pushing the Alex Jones style stuff, the "if it bleeds, it leads" style media, the influencers, the followers....all just a mish mash of crap.

Can't even have a damned coffee cup in winter without some group having an aneurysm anymore.

Better be a reusable cup! I hear ya....seems everyone rightly or wrongly has an opinion on everything and one way or another you will hear it, I think theres certain hills to die on for everyone but maybe dialing back the amount of them might help a bit? I dont know really, I have lost alot of faith in society and its path to be honest.

 

[Larionov]

Better be a reusable cup!

Funny enough, one clear outcome of this crisis is that the "war" on single use plastics and cups has clearly been put on hold for a while. All of a sudden everyone sees the value of plastic, cleaning products, and single use cups. (Related, you can either declare war on plastic or on food waste. Pick one, because you can't have both.)

 

[Upgrayedd]

Funny enough, one clear outcome of this crisis is that the "war" on single use plastics and cups has clearly been put on hold for a while. All of a sudden everyone sees the value of plastic, cleaning products, and single use cups. (Related, you can either declare war on plastic or on food waste. Pick one, because you can't have both.)

Noticed this at the grocery no longer accepting reusable bags as well among many other things, this wouldnt be my method personally as I consider the pending climate battle to be beyond concerning as well but thinking long term or critically has never been a strength of our species at least among the masses.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

?... (Related, you can either declare war on plastic or on food waste. Pick one, because you can't have both.)

Sorry, I don't get this. Can you explain?

 

[dumbdick]

I still like the idea of planned strict FULL 2-week lockdowns. Say, from October 1-14, the entirety of Southern Ontario will be observing a complete lockdown to flush out any existing covid cases. Add severe punishments for breaking lockdown during that period.

Anyone who gets sick during that period will be asked to quarantine with their household for a while longer. Add mandatory temperature checks at schools and large workplaces for the next two weeks after lockdown.

Repeat it in January after xmas holidays and after march break. Cancel or delay the lockdowns if we're doing better than expected.

When not in lockdown it's the "new normal".

 

[coladin]

I have been reading your posts and many speak of testing...we are talking between $100-$150 per test.

ottawa has 1,000,000 people. If we assume a test every 5-7 days to capture the incubation part of the virus and minimize spread, we are taking $100-$120 million a week. So say 26 weeks to get a handle...$2.6 to $2.4 BILLION dollars. And we are not even beginning to address the logistics. A million people to be tested in 7 days. 140,000 a day....HOW??????

health care is ~ $1 million per day in ottawa. Police, fire department, schools..another $1 million per day. City total expenses, ~ $11 million per day (look it up, it is on the city's web site..2019 expenses ~ 5.3 billion). Covid testing for all 14-16 million per day. Where does the money come from and how long before it runs out?

there is no magic guys, we are screwed and come hell or high water, this virus is going to take a chunk out our ass.. We will be broke and still have many dead.

We need a vaccine ASAP...we need all people to hibernate..Drink your booze at home..

On day 1 of stage 3 and allowing large groups, i was jogging at a local school, around the football pitch. A coach comes by and I come to find out, a girls soccer practice..Day f'ng one. We cannot live without soccer for one summer. The practice fields for Ottawa South (off Mitch Owens) have been packed since June.

God help us all. Because, we sure as heck are not helping ourselves.

My daughter plays with OSU, and their practices, up to now, have been very spread out, no 1v1 drills. They just had a more formal practive this week

 

[The Lewler]

Sorry, I don't get this. Can you explain?

I'm assuming they are saying without plastic, food will spoil faster , (in packing / transport / display / home storage) because you are left with much more inefficient packaging options. Therefore more food will go to waste.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I still like the idea of planned strict FULL 2-week lockdowns. Say, from October 1-14, the entirety of Southern Ontario will be observing a complete lockdown to flush out any existing covid cases. Add severe punishments for breaking lockdown during that period.

Anyone who gets sick during that period will be asked to quarantine with their household for a while longer. Add mandatory temperature checks at schools and large workplaces for the next two weeks after lockdown.

Repeat it in January after xmas holidays and after march break. Cancel or delay the lockdowns if we're doing better than expected.

When not in lockdown it's the "new normal".

So have people not get paid for 2 week intervals?

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I still like the idea of planned strict FULL 2-week lockdowns. Say, from October 1-14, the entirety of Southern Ontario will be observing a complete lockdown to flush out any existing covid cases. Add severe punishments for breaking lockdown during that period.

Anyone who gets sick during that period will be asked to quarantine with their household for a while longer. Add mandatory temperature checks at schools and large workplaces for the next two weeks after lockdown.

Repeat it in January after xmas holidays and after march break. Cancel or delay the lockdowns if we're doing better than expected.

When not in lockdown it's the "new normal".

They should have absolutely done that in March when the weather isn’t great anyway. But November would be good too. It’s far easier to stay inside during the cold months.

 

[dumbdick]

So have people not get paid for 2 week intervals?

We just shut down for months and gave employers and workers no notice it was coming or when it would be over. Right now no one has any idea when the next lockdown will be or how long it will last.

Compared to that, i would say a transparent, well-planned two-week planned shutdown would be pretty welcomed news. If you want to toss employers forced to shut down a grant to cover payroll for two weeks, lots of time to plan that too.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I still like the idea of planned strict FULL 2-week lockdowns. Say, from October 1-14, the entirety of Southern Ontario will be observing a complete lockdown to flush out any existing covid cases. Add severe punishments for breaking lockdown during that period.

Anyone who gets sick during that period will be asked to quarantine with their household for a while longer. Add mandatory temperature checks at schools and large workplaces for the next two weeks after lockdown.

Repeat it in January after xmas holidays and after march break. Cancel or delay the lockdowns if we're doing better than expected.

When not in lockdown it's the "new normal".

What if hospitalizations are low and there is still plenty of ICU capacity? Would the two week lockdowns still be necessary?

 

[dumbdick]

What if hospitalizations are low and there is still plenty of ICU capacity? Would the two week lockdowns still be necessary?

As I said in the post, cancel or delay the lockdown if they aren't needed.

If the cases are spiralling out of control, though, I'd say still do them regardless of the hospital situation. If you wait until hospitalizations are spiralling, it's probably too late.

The whole thing is a big cost minimization exercise. Weighing health and lives against the economic hit taken. I think an occasional two week strict purge lockdown might be a good strategy to keep the cases low with a minimal hit on the economy.

The idea really is to give people and the economy notice about what to expect and let them plan accordingly.

 

[Larionov]

Lockdowns don't work. Period, full stop. We have been there, done that, and it barely put a dent in the virus. You can slow it down slightly (at massive economic and social cost) but in the end, virus gonna virus - it will spread until it runs out of hosts, or mutates and dies off.

Those saying we didn't lock down hard enough remind me of those who say that communism didn't fail - rather, no one ever tried a pure enough form of it. ;-) Seriously, I can recall a couple of months ago seeing Dr. Scott Gotlieb, a leading U.S. physician, on CNN expressing his surprise and disappointment that the initial March/April lockdowns didn't take a bigger bite out of the virus. Again, it's worth noting that quarantining the healthy has never been tried anywhere until now - this was the first experiment, launched in desperation, and not surprisingly it didn't go too well. The curve of this virus looks pretty much the same everywhere around the world regardless of if, when or how a country "locked down".

COVID is here, and it will be here until we hit some form of herd immunity or science finds a way to intervene with vaccines and therapeutics. We can slow it down somewhat, but we can't stop it. We knew that back in March, when the motto was "flatten the curve", but somehow the goalposts on that got moved to, "Don't let anyone get the virus, ever." That, of course, is doomed to failure.

The bad news is that it is far more communicable than they first thought. The good news is that it is far less deadly (by a factor of at least ten) than they thought. The Infected Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID may be as low as 0.25%, in fact. Given this, I think that getting on with our lives is a far better option than continuing to light our hair on fire and launching yet more pointless lockdowns.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

As I said in the post, cancel or delay the lockdown if they aren't needed.

If the cases are spiralling out of control, though, I'd say still do them regardless of the hospital situation. If you wait until hospitalizations are spiralling, it's probably too late.

The whole thing is a big cost minimization exercise. Weighing health and lives against the economic hit taken. I think an occasional two week strict purge lockdown might be a good strategy to keep the cases low with a minimal hit on the economy.

The idea really is to give people and the economy notice about what to expect and let them plan accordingly.

It’s not the worst idea and would probably help control the virus but I don’t think it’s very realistic.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Lockdowns don't work. Period, full stop. We have been there, done that, and it barely put a dent in the virus. You can slow it down slightly (at massive economic and social cost) but in the end, virus gonna virus - it will spread until it runs out of hosts, or mutates and dies off.

Those saying we didn't lock down hard enough remind me of those who say that communism didn't fail - rather, no one ever tried a pure enough form of it. ;-) Seriously, I can recall a couple of months ago seeing Dr. Scott Gotlieb, a leading U.S. physician, on CNN expressing his surprise and disappointment that the initial March/April lockdowns didn't take a bigger bite out of the virus. Again, it's worth noting that quarantining the healthy has never been tried anywhere until now - this was the first experiment, launched in desperation, and not surprisingly it didn't go too well. The curve of this virus looks pretty much the same everywhere around the world regardless of if, when or how a country "locked down".

COVID is here, and it will be here until we hit some form of herd immunity or science finds a way to intervene with vaccines and therapeutics. We can slow it down somewhat, but we can't stop it. We knew that back in March, when the motto was "flatten the curve", but somehow the goalposts on that got moved to, "Don't let anyone get the virus, ever." That, of course, is doomed to failure.

The bad news is that it is far more communicable than they first thought. The good news is that it is far less deadly (by a factor of at least ten) than they thought. The Infected Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID may be as low as 0.25%, in fact. Given this, I think that getting on with our lives is a far better option than continuing to light our hair on fire and launching yet more pointless lockdowns.

We have not been there done that.We didn’t lock down here or anything close to it. It should have been a total lockdown for two weeks at the start. Too many businesses remained opened that didn’t need to. It should have been like Italy where only one household member could leave the house for groceries or pharmacy. I have lots of friends who didn’t stop working at all, and their business should have never been considered essential. Constructions workers did not need to keep working, for example.

 

[Laphroaig]

As I said in the post, cancel or delay the lockdown if they aren't needed.

If the cases are spiralling out of control, though, I'd say still do them regardless of the hospital situation. If you wait until hospitalizations are spiralling, it's probably too late.

The whole thing is a big cost minimization exercise. Weighing health and lives against the economic hit taken. I think an occasional two week strict purge lockdown might be a good strategy to keep the cases low with a minimal hit on the economy.

The idea really is to give people and the economy notice about what to expect and let them plan accordingly.

I'm not opposed to this idea at all. As a retired person it would have no economic impact on me but I can understand why others would greet this with far less enthusiasm. Let's just hope it won't be necessary.

 

[Masked]

Lockdowns don't work. Period, full stop. We have been there, done that, and it barely put a dent in the virus. You can slow it down slightly (at massive economic and social cost) but in the end, virus gonna virus - it will spread until it runs out of hosts, or mutates and dies off.

When you look at Sweden not locking things down and how they've fared compared to comparable countries, it's silly to think that lockdowns don't work or that it didn't put a dent in the virus.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

As I said in the post, cancel or delay the lockdown if they aren't needed.

If the cases are spiralling out of control, though, I'd say still do them regardless of the hospital situation. If you wait until hospitalizations are spiralling, it's probably too late.

The whole thing is a big cost minimization exercise. Weighing health and lives against the economic hit taken. I think an occasional two week strict purge lockdown might be a good strategy to keep the cases low with a minimal hit on the economy.

The idea really is to give people and the economy notice about what to expect and let them plan accordingly.

I really like the idea in theory....but in practical terms, a full lockdown is impossible.

People still need groceries, so some stores will be open. Things still need to be delivered, so warehouses and truck drivers will still be working. And of course emergency services are always up and running.

If there was a way to do it by shutting all businesses down and somehow getting everyone the supplies they need before hand, it might work. But that is difficult...the supply chain still hasn't recovered fully from the spring, and a lot of folks living paycheck to paycheck could end up without food/medicine for two weeks. A lot of prep would have to be done beforehand...not just with governments, but with stores and suppliers to have a pile of goods onhand for people to buy in advance.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

We have not been there done that.We didn’t lock down here or anything close to it. It should have been a total lockdown for two weeks at the start. Too many businesses remained opened that didn’t need to. It should have been like Italy where only one household member could leave the house for groceries or pharmacy. I have lots of friends who didn’t stop working at all, and their business should have never been considered essential. Constructions workers did not need to keep working, for example.

Tell that to families that had already sold their house and had a hard move in/move out date. Imagine delaying construction for weeks and months and having this result in a whole bunch of families with no place to live. This is why new construction was stopped but construction in progress (property sold or building permit issued) was allowed to continue.

 

[Tuna99]

Lockdowns don't work. Period, full stop. We have been there, done that, and it barely put a dent in the virus. You can slow it down slightly (at massive economic and social cost) but in the end, virus gonna virus - it will spread until it runs out of hosts, or mutates and dies off.

Those saying we didn't lock down hard enough remind me of those who say that communism didn't fail - rather, no one ever tried a pure enough form of it. ;-) Seriously, I can recall a couple of months ago seeing Dr. Scott Gotlieb, a leading U.S. physician, on CNN expressing his surprise and disappointment that the initial March/April lockdowns didn't take a bigger bite out of the virus. Again, it's worth noting that quarantining the healthy has never been tried anywhere until now - this was the first experiment, launched in desperation, and not surprisingly it didn't go too well. The curve of this virus looks pretty much the same everywhere around the world regardless of if, when or how a country "locked down".

COVID is here, and it will be here until we hit some form of herd immunity or science finds a way to intervene with vaccines and therapeutics. We can slow it down somewhat, but we can't stop it. We knew that back in March, when the motto was "flatten the curve", but somehow the goalposts on that got moved to, "Don't let anyone get the virus, ever." That, of course, is doomed to failure.

The bad news is that it is far more communicable than they first thought. The good news is that it is far less deadly (by a factor of at least ten) than they thought. The Infected Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID may be as low as 0.25%, in fact. Given this, I think that getting on with our lives is a far better option than continuing to light our hair on fire and launching yet more pointless lockdowns.

this is stupid

 

[dumbdick]

I really like the idea in theory....but in practical terms, a full lockdown is impossible.

People still need groceries, so some stores will be open. Things still need to be delivered, so warehouses and truck drivers will still be working. And of course emergency services are always up and running.

If there was a way to do it by shutting all businesses down and somehow getting everyone the supplies they need before hand, it might work. But that is difficult...the supply chain still hasn't recovered fully from the spring, and a lot of folks living paycheck to paycheck could end up without food/medicine for two weeks. A lot of prep would have to be done beforehand...not just with governments, but with stores and suppliers to have a pile of goods onhand for people to buy in advance.

Yeah. My thinking was really to get as close to a full lockdown as possible. Not perfect, but still effective. Give everyone lots of lead time to prepare. Run essential services on skeleton crews with as much mitigating measures as possible for that two-week period (curbside only groceries, travel restrictions, one designated person leaving the house on specific times/days, etc.)

It won't eliminate the virus, rather just knock it back for as long as possible. Hopefully, it might buy us 4-6 months before it becomes in our interest to repeat the exercise.

 

[Sweatred]

We’ve also progressed through increased stages of social interaction. Increased transmission should be expected.