EV VsX for an average 2nd line player from 1946-2017

[Black Gold Extractor]

This is basically Canadiens1958's idea, but here is the even-strength VsX (normalized to 70 for the benchmark) for the "average 2nd line" player over every post-WWII-influenced season:

Season	Teams	Avg. 2nd liner pos.	PTS	EV VsX bench.	EV VsX (avg. 2nd liner)
1947	6	27	30	50	42.0
1948	6	27	27	44	43.0
1949	6	27	23	40	40.3
1950	6	27	32	52	43.1
1951	6	27	29	50	40.6
1952	6	27	30	43	48.8
1953	6	27	25	47	37.2
1954	6	27	25	38	46.1
1955	6	27	27	47	40.2
1956	6	27	27	48	39.4
1957	6	27	27	57	33.2
1958	6	27	29	49	41.4
1959	6	27	32	60	37.3
1960	6	27	32	55	40.9
1961	6	27	35	57	43.0
1962	6	27	33	55	41.7
1963	6	27	34	58	41.0
1964	6	27	31	52	41.7
1965	6	27	28	48	40.7
1966	6	27	35	54	45.4
1967	6	27	32	54	41.5
1968	12	54	33	60	38.5
1969	12	54	35	78	31.4
1970	12	54	30	58	36.2
1971	14	63	35	78	31.4
1972	14	63	35	77	31.8
1973	16	72	39	76	35.9
1974	16	72	37	83	31.2
1975	18	81	38	75	35.5
1976	18	81	38	79	33.7
1977	18	81	39	74	36.9
1978	18	81	37	88	29.4
1979	17	77	38	83	32.0
1980	21	95	39	91	30.0
1981	21	95	41	86	33.4
1982	21	95	44	87	35.4
1983	21	95	40	90	31.1
1984	21	95	40	90	31.1
1985	21	95	40	85	32.9
1986	21	95	40	87	32.2
1987	21	95	39	76	35.9
1988	21	95	36	74	34.1
1989	21	95	36	89	28.4
1990	21	95	37	79	32.8
1991	21	95	34	73	32.6
1992	22	99	35	74	33.1
1993	24	108	36	87	29.0
1994	26	117	33	70	33.0
1995	26	117	18	42	30.2
1996	26	117	31	76	28.6
1997	26	117	31	79	27.5
1998	26	117	26	64	28.4
1999	27	122	28	67	29.3
2000	28	126	30	59	35.6
2001	30	135	28	66	29.7
2002	30	135	29	59	34.4
2003	30	135	28	65	30.2
2004	30	135	26	57	31.9
2006	30	135	28	62	31.6
2007	30	135	29	63	32.2
2008	30	135	28	66	29.7
2009	30	135	30	63	33.3
2010	30	135	30	69	30.4
2011	30	135	31	62	35.0
2012	30	135	31	60	36.2
2013	30	135	17	40	29.8
2014	30	135	30	64	32.8
2015	30	135	30	59	35.6
2016	30	135	30	61	34.4
2017	30	135	31	61	35.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's pretty obvious that there was a huge drop-off with the 1967 expansion. More interestingly, there was not much change even with the rise of the WHA, or the merger with the WHA. Presumably, the league had expanded enough that there was a lot of interchangeable talent in the ranks. From about 1980 through about 2010, the average 2nd liner's even-strength VsX has been pretty flat, although it seems to dip again with the 90's expansion until it stabilizes after reaching 30 teams in 2000-01.

Also, there seems to be a gradual rise in ability between circa 2010 and 2017... so it seems that the NHL's decision to expand once more might be a decent one (if one's goal is to maintain the overall talent distribution per team post-1967 expansion).

Click to read more...

 

[Canadiens1958]

This is basically Canadiens1958's idea, but here is the even-strength VsX (normalized to 70 for the benchmark) for the "average 2nd line" player over every post-WWII-influenced season:

Season	Teams	Avg. 2nd liner pos.	PTS	EV VsX bench.	EV VsX (avg. 2nd liner)
1947	6	27	30	50	42.0
1948	6	27	27	44	43.0
1949	6	27	23	40	40.3
1950	6	27	32	52	43.1
1951	6	27	29	50	40.6
1952	6	27	30	43	48.8
1953	6	27	25	47	37.2
1954	6	27	25	38	46.1
1955	6	27	27	47	40.2
1956	6	27	27	48	39.4
1957	6	27	27	57	33.2
1958	6	27	29	49	41.4
1959	6	27	32	60	37.3
1960	6	27	32	55	40.9
1961	6	27	35	57	43.0
1962	6	27	33	55	41.7
1963	6	27	34	58	41.0
1964	6	27	31	52	41.7
1965	6	27	28	48	40.7
1966	6	27	35	54	45.4
1967	6	27	32	54	41.5
1968	12	54	33	60	38.5
1969	12	54	35	78	31.4
1970	12	54	30	58	36.2
1971	14	63	35	78	31.4
1972	14	63	35	77	31.8
1973	16	72	39	76	35.9
1974	16	72	37	83	31.2
1975	18	81	38	75	35.5
1976	18	81	38	79	33.7
1977	18	81	39	74	36.9
1978	18	81	37	88	29.4
1979	17	77	38	83	32.0
1980	21	95	39	91	30.0
1981	21	95	41	86	33.4
1982	21	95	44	87	35.4
1983	21	95	40	90	31.1
1984	21	95	40	90	31.1
1985	21	95	40	85	32.9
1986	21	95	40	87	32.2
1987	21	95	39	76	35.9
1988	21	95	36	74	34.1
1989	21	95	36	89	28.4
1990	21	95	37	79	32.8
1991	21	95	34	73	32.6
1992	22	99	35	74	33.1
1993	24	108	36	87	29.0
1994	26	117	33	70	33.0
1995	26	117	18	42	30.2
1996	26	117	31	76	28.6
1997	26	117	31	79	27.5
1998	26	117	26	64	28.4
1999	27	122	28	67	29.3
2000	28	126	30	59	35.6
2001	30	135	28	66	29.7
2002	30	135	29	59	34.4
2003	30	135	28	65	30.2
2004	30	135	26	57	31.9
2006	30	135	28	62	31.6
2007	30	135	29	63	32.2
2008	30	135	28	66	29.7
2009	30	135	30	63	33.3
2010	30	135	30	69	30.4
2011	30	135	31	62	35.0
2012	30	135	31	60	36.2
2013	30	135	17	40	29.8
2014	30	135	30	64	32.8
2015	30	135	30	59	35.6
2016	30	135	30	61	34.4
2017	30	135	31	61	35.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's pretty obvious that there was a huge drop-off with the 1967 expansion. More interestingly, there was not much change even with the rise of the WHA, or the merger with the WHA. Presumably, the league had expanded enough that there was a lot of interchangeable talent in the ranks. From about 1980 through about 2010, the average 2nd liner's even-strength VsX has been pretty flat, although it seems to dip again with the 90's expansion until it stabilizes after reaching 30 teams in 2000-01.

Also, there seems to be a gradual rise in ability between circa 2010 and 2017... so it seems that the NHL's decision to expand once more might be a decent one (if one's goal is to maintain the overall talent distribution per team post-1967 expansion).

Great effort. Very interesting results. Work stoppage seasons are represented accurately. Thank you.

Comments to come.

 

[Canadiens1958]

The post 1967 drop-off seems to reflect two factors. Deployment or slotting and roster churn.

Deployment or slotting. O6 era with sponsorship potential NHL players in junior were taught the various roles on a team. Integrating the junior team as 16-17 year olds as support players, stars as 19-20 year olds. As a result a fair number had long and successful NHL careers as foundation second or third line players who in a pinch could fill-in on the first line or out of team necessity play a lead role on the third line. Prime examples would be Ralph Backstrom, Claude Provost, Eric Nesterenko, Ken Wharram, George Armstrong, Dick Duff, Bob Pulford, Ron Stewart, etc. Most teams had about 4-5,only longevity varied.

Post expansion,no more sponsorship, junior teams focused on stars mainly. Very few teams produced forwards that could play thru the line-up. This continued with the European invasion which featured star players mainly from National teams. A few NHL teams would take the time to develop such players in the minors. From the late sixties, seventies you had Cliff Koroll, Don Marcotte, Nick Libett, Walt Tkachuk, Craig Ramsey, etc. 1980s,1990s you had the Mike McPhee, Guy Carbonneau, JimPeplinski, Sergei Nemchinov, Esa Tikkanen, Claude Lemieux, etc.Today you have Ryan Kesler, Alex Killorn, Brendan Gallagher, Patric Hornqvist, Chris Kunitz a few others. But,since 1967 the number of dedicated second or third liners has dropped - does not reflect a 4-5 per team level over 30 teams.

Basically in the Salary Cap era,the second to fourth lines are the domain of entry level or filler players. This impacts performance negatively.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

The post 1967 drop-off seems to reflect two factors. Deployment or slotting and roster churn.

Deployment or slotting. O6 era with sponsorship potential NHL players in junior were taught the various roles on a team. Integrating the junior team as 16-17 year olds as support players, stars as 19-20 year olds. As a result a fair number had long and successful NHL careers as foundation second or third line players who in a pinch could fill-in on the first line or out of team necessity play a lead role on the third line. Prime examples would be Ralph Backstrom, Claude Provost, Eric Nesterenko, Ken Wharram, George Armstrong, Dick Duff, Bob Pulford, Ron Stewart, etc. Most teams had about 4-5,only longevity varied.

This is a good point. While dilution of talent across the league is always brought up, oft-forgotten is the dilution and disruption "behind the scenes" so to speak.

I did a hard Vs3 and added the pre-WWII and WWII years to the chart, and I think that it illustrates what you're talking about pretty well.

Spoiler

Season	Teams	Avg. 2nd liner pos.	PTS	EV VsX bench.	EV Vs3 (avg. 2nd liner)
1937	8	36	19	34	39.1
1938	8	36	21	38	38.7
1939	7	32	22	37	41.6
1940	7	32	20	43	32.6
1941	7	32	23	37	43.5
1942	7	32	26	45	40.4
1943	6	27	34	56	42.5
1944	6	27	41	65	44.2
1945	6	27	32	59	38.0
1946	6	27	27	41	46.1
1947	6	27	30	49	42.9
1948	6	27	27	44	43.0
1949	6	27	23	40	40.3
1950	6	27	32	51	43.9
1951	6	27	29	50	40.6
1952	6	27	30	43	48.8
1953	6	27	25	47	37.2
1954	6	27	25	38	46.1
1955	6	27	27	45	42.0
1956	6	27	27	45	42.0
1957	6	27	27	54	35.0
1958	6	27	29	49	41.4
1959	6	27	32	58	38.6
1960	6	27	32	57	39.3
1961	6	27	35	57	43.0
1962	6	27	33	60	38.5
1963	6	27	34	55	43.3
1964	6	27	31	52	41.7
1965	6	27	28	52	37.7
1966	6	27	35	49	50.0
1967	6	27	32	52	43.1
1968	12	54	33	58	39.8
1969	12	54	35	72	34.0
1970	12	54	30	58	36.2
1971	14	63	35	77	31.8
1972	14	63	35	74	33.1
1973	16	72	39	75	36.4
1974	16	72	37	75	34.5
1975	18	81	38	75	35.5
1976	18	81	38	78	34.1
1977	18	81	39	74	36.9
1978	18	81	37	81	32.0
1979	17	77	38	81	32.8
1980	21	95	39	84	32.5
1981	21	95	41	78	36.8
1982	21	95	44	87	35.4
1983	21	95	40	81	34.6
1984	21	95	40	89	31.5
1985	21	95	40	85	32.9
1986	21	95	40	87	32.2
1987	21	95	39	72	37.9
1988	21	95	36	70	36.0
1989	21	95	36	100	25.2
1990	21	95	37	71	36.5
1991	21	95	34	73	32.6
1992	22	99	35	67	36.6
1993	24	108	36	83	30.4
1994	26	117	33	69	33.5
1995	26	117	18	45	28.0
1996	26	117	31	75	28.9
1997	26	117	31	76	28.6
1998	26	117	26	60	30.3
1999	27	122	28	65	30.2
2000	28	126	30	59	35.6
2001	30	135	28	64	30.6
2002	30	135	29	57	35.6
2003	30	135	28	63	31.1
2004	30	135	26	57	31.9
2006	30	135	28	62	31.6
2007	30	135	29	62	32.7
2008	30	135	28	65	30.2
2009	30	135	30	63	33.3
2010	30	135	30	72	29.2
2011	30	135	31	61	35.6
2012	30	135	31	60	36.2
2013	30	135	17	40	29.8
2014	30	135	30	64	32.8
2015	30	135	30	55	38.2
2016	30	135	30	59	35.6
2017	30	135	31	65	33.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There was a drop with the start of WWII, but the league appears to have been able to recover rapidly (although league contraction with the loss of the Brooklyn Americans helped). With the end of the war, the league appears to have been stronger than ever before... although the dip in the mid-to-late-50's is weird. I guess a lot of the wartime players (Kennedy, Lach, the Bentleys, etc.) started retiring around that time.

Post expansion,no more sponsorship, junior teams focused on stars mainly. Very few teams produced forwards that could play thru the line-up. This continued with the European invasion which featured star players mainly from National teams. A few NHL teams would take the time to develop such players in the minors. From the late sixties, seventies you had Cliff Koroll, Don Marcotte, Nick Libett, Walt Tkachuk, Craig Ramsey, etc. 1980s,1990s you had the Mike McPhee, Guy Carbonneau, JimPeplinski, Sergei Nemchinov, Esa Tikkanen, Claude Lemieux, etc.Today you have Ryan Kesler, Alex Killorn, Brendan Gallagher, Patric Hornqvist, Chris Kunitz a few others. But,since 1967 the number of dedicated second or third liners has dropped - does not reflect a 4-5 per team level over 30 teams.

Basically in the Salary Cap era,the second to fourth lines are the domain of entry level or filler players. This impacts performance negatively.

I think this is probably true post-1967 expansion through roughly 2010. The current decade seems to have seen a gradual but steady rise in relative EV scoring for the average 2nd liner. Over the last few years, the league appears to have been at its deepest post-1967 expansion (though it's still a far cry from pre-expansion). It will be interesting to see if it's repeatable, but the Vegas Golden Knights, made up of unprotected players from across the league, is almost certainly the most successful post-1967 expansion team. That probably would have been impossible without the current depth of the league.

 

[Canadiens1958]

This is a good point. While dilution of talent across the league is always brought up, oft-forgotten is the dilution and disruption "behind the scenes" so to speak.

I did a hard Vs3 and added the pre-WWII and WWII years to the chart, and I think that it illustrates what you're talking about pretty well.

Spoiler

Season	Teams	Avg. 2nd liner pos.	PTS	EV VsX bench.	EV Vs3 (avg. 2nd liner)
1937	8	36	19	34	39.1
1938	8	36	21	38	38.7
1939	7	32	22	37	41.6
1940	7	32	20	43	32.6
1941	7	32	23	37	43.5
1942	7	32	26	45	40.4
1943	6	27	34	56	42.5
1944	6	27	41	65	44.2
1945	6	27	32	59	38.0
1946	6	27	27	41	46.1
1947	6	27	30	49	42.9
1948	6	27	27	44	43.0
1949	6	27	23	40	40.3
1950	6	27	32	51	43.9
1951	6	27	29	50	40.6
1952	6	27	30	43	48.8
1953	6	27	25	47	37.2
1954	6	27	25	38	46.1
1955	6	27	27	45	42.0
1956	6	27	27	45	42.0
1957	6	27	27	54	35.0
1958	6	27	29	49	41.4
1959	6	27	32	58	38.6
1960	6	27	32	57	39.3
1961	6	27	35	57	43.0
1962	6	27	33	60	38.5
1963	6	27	34	55	43.3
1964	6	27	31	52	41.7
1965	6	27	28	52	37.7
1966	6	27	35	49	50.0
1967	6	27	32	52	43.1
1968	12	54	33	58	39.8
1969	12	54	35	72	34.0
1970	12	54	30	58	36.2
1971	14	63	35	77	31.8
1972	14	63	35	74	33.1
1973	16	72	39	75	36.4
1974	16	72	37	75	34.5
1975	18	81	38	75	35.5
1976	18	81	38	78	34.1
1977	18	81	39	74	36.9
1978	18	81	37	81	32.0
1979	17	77	38	81	32.8
1980	21	95	39	84	32.5
1981	21	95	41	78	36.8
1982	21	95	44	87	35.4
1983	21	95	40	81	34.6
1984	21	95	40	89	31.5
1985	21	95	40	85	32.9
1986	21	95	40	87	32.2
1987	21	95	39	72	37.9
1988	21	95	36	70	36.0
1989	21	95	36	100	25.2
1990	21	95	37	71	36.5
1991	21	95	34	73	32.6
1992	22	99	35	67	36.6
1993	24	108	36	83	30.4
1994	26	117	33	69	33.5
1995	26	117	18	45	28.0
1996	26	117	31	75	28.9
1997	26	117	31	76	28.6
1998	26	117	26	60	30.3
1999	27	122	28	65	30.2
2000	28	126	30	59	35.6
2001	30	135	28	64	30.6
2002	30	135	29	57	35.6
2003	30	135	28	63	31.1
2004	30	135	26	57	31.9
2006	30	135	28	62	31.6
2007	30	135	29	62	32.7
2008	30	135	28	65	30.2
2009	30	135	30	63	33.3
2010	30	135	30	72	29.2
2011	30	135	31	61	35.6
2012	30	135	31	60	36.2
2013	30	135	17	40	29.8
2014	30	135	30	64	32.8
2015	30	135	30	55	38.2
2016	30	135	30	59	35.6
2017	30	135	31	65	33.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There was a drop with the start of WWII, but the league appears to have been able to recover rapidly (although league contraction with the loss of the Brooklyn Americans helped). With the end of the war, the league appears to have been stronger than ever before... although the dip in the mid-to-late-50's is weird. I guess a lot of the wartime players (Kennedy, Lach, the Bentleys, etc.) started retiring around that time.



I think this is probably true post-1967 expansion through roughly 2010. The current decade seems to have seen a gradual but steady rise in relative EV scoring for the average 2nd liner. Over the last few years, the league appears to have been at its deepest post-1967 expansion (though it's still a far cry from pre-expansion). It will be interesting to see if it's repeatable, but the Vegas Golden Knights, made up of unprotected players from across the league, is almost certainly the most successful post-1967 expansion team. That probably would have been impossible without the current depth of the league.

I would use the word attrition to describe the period between consolidation and the O6. Going from 10 to 6 teams over 16 seasons with a few burps along the way - increased rosters starting in 1929-30 with a reduction in 1932-33 with the original salary cap.

You did not have significant new players entering annually until 1936-37. Even then the older players hung on, some assuming dual forward / defencemen roles.

Mid 1950s saw the attrition of many of the WWII rookies who became stars but they were promptly replaced, especially the 1955-56 Rookie Class arguably the best ever.

Vegas,more of and example of NHL teams not being able to recognize and integrate new talent than depth.