Speculation: Erik Karlsson

[Stormbreaker]

July 1, 2019 is going to be as the kids say, LIT.

 

[J T Money]

California taxes are no joke. He'd have to sign for significantly more there to make the same (post taxes) that he would in Florida.

 

[Master P]

Don't worry guys, san jose can't compete with true love

 

[Todd1a]

California taxes are no joke. He'd have to sign for significantly more there to make the same (post taxes) that he would in Florida.

San Jose will offer him 11 per year for 8 years . Remember we could only offer a 7 year deal

 

[J T Money]

San Jose will offer him 11 per year for 8 years . Remember we could only offer a 7 year deal

That they would, just stating that taxes could be another factor in not staying with San Jose.

 

[Hoek]

That's a good point about the extra year. Of course the Sharks could also fail hard somehow this season and then we could trade for him (just have to replace that first rounder they would lose), and get that 8th year.

 

[DFC]

San Jose will offer him 11 per year for 8 years . Remember we could only offer a 7 year deal

We can probably do 10 or 10.5 on that 7 year deal though, which, I think, would make it pretty competitive.

 

[Sky04]

We can probably do 10 or 10.5 on that 7 year deal though, which, I think, would make it pretty competitive.

10.5 is extremely hard, even 10 was when crunching numbers and that includes moving one of Killorn or Johnson who have NTC's. I'd say our chances actually got worse because trading for him actually gives him a taste of what the teams like especially on a year poised for success - which could've driven his number down having played here for a year.

 

[Rschmitz]

10.5 is extremely hard, even 10 was when crunching numbers and that includes moving one of Killorn or Johnson who have NTC's. I'd say our chances actually got worse because trading for him actually gives him a taste of what the teams like especially on a year poised for success - which could've driven his number down having played here for a year.

Is there any increased cap factored into that? Players always elect for the escalator

 

[DFC]

Is there any increased cap factored into that? Players always elect for the escalator

Yeah, but you have to assume that increased cap will increase the opposing offer as well.

I don't see us getting a UFA Karlsson for Kucherov money or less. That said, I think we're gonna try hard to land him, even if it means giving up pieces we'd rather not give up (Gourde, UFA, for one).

 

[Sky04]

Is there any increased cap factored into that? Players always elect for the escalator

Right now the cap is 79.5m, I did a modest projection up to 82m and we'd still end up with 85m+ cap and that's IF we bring up 5 rookies that season. Joseph, Stephens, Volkov, Cernak and Foote to replace Paquette, Conacher, Erne, Girardi, and Stralman, Gourde walks, Point resigns for 5m and this doesn't even include a 13th forward/7th dman.

There's too much money spent on Killorn and Callahan who would be 3rd/4th line players eating up 10m in cap space. Without them we could just squeeze right at the cap but wishful thinking moving that much cap in our favor before a big UFA signing.

It was a lot easier to fit him before we resigned McDonagh/Miller - because keeping Stralman and Gourde wouldn't have been that expensive as alternatives. The year after that would require raises for Vasi, Sergachev, and Cirelli.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Check this out before you start talking about salary and what TBL can offer compared to SJ. San Jose is 136% more expensive in terms of cost of living than Tampa. For people that are making multiple millions per year, this is a significant factor.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

San Jose will offer him 11 per year for 8 years . Remember we could only offer a 7 year deal

This will get him about as far in San Jose as $6 Million would in Tampa.

 

[The Macho King]

Check this out before you start talking about salary and what TBL can offer compared to SJ. San Jose is 136% more expensive in terms of cost of living than Tampa. For people that are making multiple millions per year, this is a significant factor.

Those calculators have limits, especially when you start talking in the 8 digit range they oversimplify how CoL operates.

But SJ is definitely significantly more expensive than Tampa. Housing costs are nuts, taxes are significant. But it's also a pretty awesome place to live.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Those calculators have limits, especially when you start talking in the 8 digit range they oversimplify how CoL operates.

But SJ is definitely significantly more expensive than Tampa. Housing costs are nuts, taxes are significant. But it's also a pretty awesome place to live.

For sure, didn't mean to make it seem those numbers are exact. However, as you stated, the COL is significantly higher there. Sure, it's an awesome place to live but I have my doubts it's any more awesome than living in the Bay Area... So, I think that's probably a wash...

 

[DFC]

Check this out before you start talking about salary and what TBL can offer compared to SJ. San Jose is 136% more expensive in terms of cost of living than Tampa. For people that are making multiple millions per year, this is a significant factor.

While I think it's a consideration for players, I don't think it's the be-all end-all. It's not like Karlsson's living paycheck to paycheck. Most of his money is going to sit in the bank and/or investments for the rest of his career. Then he'll go retire wherever he wants (seems to be back in Ottawa, if you take him at face value) with a big chunk of change to live the rest of his life on. It's not like I know this for sure, but I'm guessing players of this caliber spend a small percentage of their money on day-to-day expenses.

 

[DFC]

Those calculators have limits, especially when you start talking in the 8 digit range they oversimplify how CoL operates.

But SJ is definitely significantly more expensive than Tampa. Housing costs are nuts, taxes are significant. But it's also a pretty awesome place to live.

Considering how much guys like Joe Thornton seems to love it, and Patrick Marleau definitely loved it, I think we can assume players in general don't mind the extra costs. They don't seem to want to leave.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Considering how much guys like Joe Thornton seems to love it, and Patrick Marleau definitely loved it, I think we can assume players in general don't mind the extra costs. They don't seem to want to leave.

Dammit... I am trying to talk myself into believing he's going to play this year in San Jose and will ultimately move on to the Bolts in free agency. You guys are crushing my dreams. LOL.

 

[DFC]

Dammit... I am trying to talk myself into believing he's going to play this year in San Jose and will ultimately move on to the Bolts in free agency. You guys are crushing my dreams. LOL.

I think we still have a pretty realistic shot. After the trade, at least a couple of reports came out saying Karlsson's preference was TB. And in a much more concrete way than anybody was saying prior to the trade. I'm just saying, players do seem to like SJ a lot. So we're not gonna be a slam-dunk or anything. But, if he does get to UFA, and he seemed pretty insistent on not signing a deal before the trade, we should be one of the frontrunners. He won't make as much money here, at least before taxes, but I think he knows that.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I think the chances he re-signs in SJ are pretty high. However if he makes it to FA, I think the chances he signs here are pretty high.

 

[God King Fudge]

I personally think he goes to FA regardless. Why not? You've gone this far, been traded from the team you've been playing for your entire career. You can still sign with SJ after you become a FA anyway, so why not just see what those teams that wanted to trade for you have to offer? TB, Vegas, Dallas.

I get that he loses a year if he goes that route, but we're talking about what's going to be (likely) 77 million dollar contract at least. For someone who will never see that kind of cash, seems like I'd rather lose an extra year to make sure I end up somewhere I absolutely want to be.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I personally think he goes to FA regardless. Why not? You've gone this far, been traded from the team you've been playing for your entire career. You can still sign with SJ after you become a FA anyway, so why not just see what those teams that wanted to trade for you have to offer? TB, Vegas, Dallas.

I get that he loses a year if he goes that route, but we're talking about what's going to be (likely) 77 million dollar contract at least. For someone who will never see that kind of cash, seems like I'd rather lose an extra year to make sure I end up somewhere I absolutely want to be.

Depends on whats important to him. Hes had a nasty injury before. Getting that long term contract could be important to him. We will see. Also will depend on how good SJ is.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

For someone who will never see that kind of cash, seems like I'd rather lose an extra year to make sure I end up somewhere I absolutely want to be.

Ya know, contracts are so front-loaded these days that it makes me wonder how important that 8th year is anyways.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Ya know, contracts are so front-loaded these days that it makes me wonder how important that 8th year is anyways.

The new CBA has made the 8th year extremely valuable and limits how much teams can front load. You don't see significant drop offs in salary for the big UFAs. San Jose has a big advantage with the 8th year. If he makes it to July 1st, however, that advantage goes away.

We have to hope for everything going wrong in San Jose this year, whether it be bad chemistry, older players falling off, or bad coaching. They're such a well-balanced team, it's an easy sell for Karlsson to stay there.

 

[God King Fudge]

Whew. Those SJ fans are suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuper sensitive about EK not resigning lol