Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Weezeric]

I wonder if keeping Ehlers minutes down is partially about getting him matchups and partially about keeping him healthy. It seems like every second game he’s down in a heap at some point, he just plays the game so hard for a small guy. Happened again last night.

 

[Jetabre]

Ehlers is a gem. Always been one of my favourite players to watch, and this season he might be taking things to another level.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I wonder if keeping Ehlers minutes down is partially about getting him matchups and partially about keeping him healthy. It seems like every second game he’s down in a heap at some point, he just plays the game so hard for a small guy. Happened again last night.

Hopefully we'll have two alternating first lines when Dubois gets settled, and the ice time will even out between the two lines. There's nothing wrong with having two balanced scoring lines, but to do that you need some talent on both of them. Right now, at least at this very early juncture, there is very little to complain about offense-wise. Heck, wait until Perfetti comes on board as well!

 

[phrenssoa]

Props to Maurice for getting the most out of Ehlers right now. He's so fun to watch!

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Looking at offensive production, Ehlers is leading even McDavid on 5v5 Points, with much less ice time i might add (~26% less). Ehlers, McDavid and some other notable Jets 5v5 Points (small sample due to number of games played to date)

5v5 Points
Ehlers 8
McDavid 7 (in 8 GP)
Stastny 5
KC 5
Scheifele 4
Wheeler 2

Other notables:
Joel Armia 3 (in 5 GP)
Brandon Tanev 3 (in 7 GP)

 

[DRW204]

since 2018-2019 season

5v5 pts efficiency (per toi)

from last year-this year

 

[DRW204]

last year + this year

 

[Whileee]

True. That has been better. I still think Ehlers could do a "power kill" type situation.

No doubt. Ehlers was amazing to watch in the Q on the PK. At the NHL level, his speed is going to create fear and doubt in other teams because he can beat opponents flat out without any head start.

But I would still prefer using other forwards on the PK and preserve the best players for 5v5 and the PP, where they provide more advantage overall. Ehlers is a bit like a thoroughbred in that when his legs get fatigued his play drops quickly. He seems stronger each year, but he still can burn out his legs because he covers so much ice with such energy when he's on his game. It would be interesting to see data on individual player tracking (like they provide for the Liiga) in terms of total distance covered in a game. I would guess that Ehlers is at the top end of that range even with less ice-time than some other forwards.

 

[Spock]

I wonder if keeping Ehlers minutes down is partially about getting him matchups and partially about keeping him healthy. It seems like every second game he’s down in a heap at some point, he just plays the game so hard for a small guy. Happened again last night.

Does anyone get worried when Ehlers is down on the ice and the trainer comes running out anymore?

 

[LowLefty]

I don't think overplaying the 1st has anything to do with Laine's absence. For the record in that only game Laine played this season (and robbed those points for the Jets), he got 16:19 TOI.

Ehlers AVG TOI for this young season is 16:26. Or in other words: stupid.

Yes I am aware that things should change at least to some degree when PLD steps in, no doubt. But the usage scheme has been mostly the same last 3 seasons so it's not really a new thing for Mo and his 2nd line.

I am glad that you are aware - yes, it will change to a degree and that was my point. How much will soon be seen

 

[DRW204]

Does anyone get worried when Ehlers is down on the ice and the trainer comes running out anymore?

I was last night

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I Beginning to think that the Ehlers might be our best player.

He must definitely be the best player that Greenland has ever produced.

 

[Bob E]

Ehlers has good chemistry with Stastny. Both are smart players, see the ice well, and anticipate offence plays and opportunities in same way. In other words, they are on the same page. And Copp is that physical grinder that can chip in offensively.

Adding Dubois to that line likely won’t change much, other than Dubois is even more skilled than Copp. I think Dubois and Ehlers will mesh very well, and Stastny on that line for defensive awareness and “smarts” may just bring it all together as well.

Moving forward, I would like to see the Jets pair forwards, and I believe the Jets have solid pairs.

Connor/Scheifele/XXXX
XXXX/Dubois/Ehlers
Copp/Lowry/XXXX

Now you add Stastny and Wheeler as interchangeable parts in the top 6 and off you go.

If Dubois and Ehlers can generate the same chemistry as Stastny and Ehlers, that’s a very strong top 6.

Now just fix that D Chevy.

 

[DRW204]

I Beginning to think that the Ehlers might be our best player.

He must definitely be the best player that Greenland has ever produced.

there's no "might" anymore, he is.

 

[truck]

there's no "might" anymore, he is.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I'll always miss Laine no matter what happens, but it seems trading him lifted a giant weight off our shoulders. But Ehlers playing well with Copp and Stastny makes me wonder what will happen with Dubois.

I imagine on the third line Dubois should start to get comfortable, but would imagine with

But would also like to maybe see what happens and try him out with that line, but I wouldn't want to wreck a beautiful thing. Unless someone is shifted to the Scheifele Wheeler line in Connor's place, we roll with Connor-Dubois-Appleton. Just don't think it should be based on ice-time with the top three lines. If we gotta go against Tkachuk, roll out Lewis and Thompson. But maybe even try Lowry on the first line because he's earned it.

Lowry-Scheifele-Wheeler
Ehlers-Stastny-Copp
Connor-Dubois-Appleton
Perreault-Harkins-Lewis

We have such an underrated team so far.

 

[FonRiesen]

I'll always miss Laine no matter what happens, but it seems trading him lifted a giant weight off our shoulders. But Ehlers playing well with Copp and Stastny makes me wonder what will happen with Dubois.

I imagine on the third line Dubois should start to get comfortable, but would imagine with

But would also like to maybe see what happens and try him out with that line, but I wouldn't want to wreck a beautiful thing. Unless someone is shifted to the Scheifele Wheeler line in Connor's place, we roll with Connor-Dubois-Appleton. Just don't think it should be based on ice-time with the top three lines. If we gotta go against Tkachuk, roll out Lewis and Thompson. But maybe even try Lowry on the first line because he's earned it.

Lowry-Scheifele-Wheeler
Ehlers-Stastny-Copp
Connor-Dubois-Appleton
Perreault-Harkins-Lewis

We have such an underrated team so far.

That could be interesting. If Mau hates not playing the cliché "best on best", then Lowsy would definitely bring some defensive awareness to S-W.

Honestly, though, Schiefele has looked good for the most part - just not against McD.

 

[Gyldenlove]

I Beginning to think that the Ehlers might be our best player.

He must definitely be the best player that Greenland has ever produced.

He is from Jylland, not Greenland.

 

[DashingDane]

He is from Jylland, not Greenland.

Basically the same Anything outside of Copenhagen might as well be Mars

 

[truck]

I wonder if keeping Ehlers minutes down is partially about getting him matchups and partially about keeping him healthy. It seems like every second game he’s down in a heap at some point, he just plays the game so hard for a small guy. Happened again last night.

The matchups thing is generally nonsense in the NHL. Few players are actually hard matched often enough for Quality of Opposition to outweigh Quality of Teammate. More time with Scheifele should mean more points - as it has in the past.

His points per 60 have jumped to 2.99 when he's played with Scheifele in their 600+ minutes together (since 2018-19).


It isn't just his numbers that improve either...

Scheifele also scores a ton more when he plays with Ehlers, and the line doesn't get crushed.

Scheifele has been darn near break even in xGoals % with Ehlers, but his xGoals away from Ehlers is an abysmal 43.8%. Again, this is a two+ season sample.

 

[Whileee]

I wondered how rational playing time was in relation to offensive production in the NHL. Below are scatterplot graphs of the average time on ice vs. points/60 (5v5) for the NHL and the Jets over the past 3 seasons.

Generally, a fairly strong correlation in time and point production rates. So, most NHL teams including the Jets tend to give the most ice-time to the players that produce the most offense per minute. Not a big surprise.

Interestingly, there is very little correlation in the NHL between average ice-time (5v5) and xGF%, and the Jets have a fewer of their highest ice-time forwards with mediocre shot metrics (especially Scheifele, Connor and Laine). So NHL coaches tend to focus less on on-ice impacts on shot metrics, and more on offensive production. No Eureka moment, but there you go...

 

[Whileee]

The matchups thing is generally nonsense in the NHL. Few players are actually hard matched often enough for Quality of Opposition to outweigh Quality of Teammate. More time with Scheifele should mean more points - as it has in the past.

His points per 60 have jumped to 2.99 when he's played with Scheifele in their 600+ minutes together (since 2018-19).


It isn't just his numbers that improve either...

Scheifele also scores a ton more when he plays with Ehlers, and the line doesn't get crushed.

Scheifele has been darn near break even in xGoals % with Ehlers, but his xGoals away from Ehlers is an abysmal 43.8%. Again, this is a two+ season sample.

I still think that some players can handle higher minutes than others, especially over the course of a season. Also, the fatigue is not strictly related to time-on-ice, but also style and the distance skated. Stastny or Lowry skate much less distance than Tanev or Ehlers. I would bet that Ehlers is near the top of all Jets forwards in terms of distance traveled per minute. Based purely on per minute productivity I think Ehlers deserves more ice-time, but I'm not sure his effectiveness would be maintained if he was getting the kind of ice-time that Connor or Scheifele gets. His fitness has probably improved, but I recall watching camp fitness testing and players like Scheifele and Connor and Roslovic blowing away Ehlers in endurance tests like the Beep Test.

 

[Krauser]

Few players are actually hard matched often enough for Quality of Opposition to outweigh Quality of Teammate.

Not sure QoO outweighs QoT but the way Maurice matches lines there probably is some effect:

 

[DashingDane]

I still think that some players can handle higher minutes than others, especially over the course of a season. Also, the fatigue is not strictly related to time-on-ice, but also style and the distance skated. Stastny or Lowry skate much less distance than Tanev or Ehlers. I would bet that Ehlers is near the top of all Jets forwards in terms of distance traveled per minute. Based purely on per minute productivity I think Ehlers deserves more ice-time, but I'm not sure his effectiveness would be maintained if he was getting the kind of ice-time that Connor or Scheifele gets. His fitness has probably improved, but I recall watching camp fitness testing and players like Scheifele and Connor and Roslovic blowing away Ehlers in endurance tests like the Beep Test.

I think you very well could be right but we will never know until Paul actually give him that chance. Imo he has at least earned the shot to fail at more toi.

 

[truck]

I still think that some players can handle higher minutes than others, especially over the course of a season. Also, the fatigue is not strictly related to time-on-ice, but also style and the distance skated. Stastny or Lowry skate much less distance than Tanev or Ehlers. I would bet that Ehlers is near the top of all Jets forwards in terms of distance traveled per minute. Based purely on per minute productivity I think Ehlers deserves more ice-time, but I'm not sure his effectiveness would be maintained if he was getting the kind of ice-time that Connor or Scheifele gets. His fitness has probably improved, but I recall watching camp fitness testing and players like Scheifele and Connor and Roslovic blowing away Ehlers in endurance tests like the Beep Test.

We have no way of knowing if the bolded is true for the the long haul, but we do know that he's improved his scoring rates in his 600+ minutes with Scheifele (literally in Connor's role).

And that Scheifele performs better.

And that the line performs better in terms of xGoals.

I'm cool with him being kept off the PK to "rest" him, but I do think Ehlers could wreck games with a Panarin / P Kane level impact if he was given the ice time to do it.