ECHL Magic/Tragic numbers, 2012-12 season

[HansH]

We've started to have teams in the East clinch now, and in the West, it's now down mostly to a battle for seeding going into the post-season. We also have our first team mathematically eliminated from the post-season (sorry, Evansville, maybe next year!) and might have another eliminated after tonight.

And one point of terminology: ROW = "Regulation or Overtime Wins", i.e. non-shootout wins. This is the first tiebreaker for teams who finish with the same amount of standings points.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Magic Numbers
Reading - CLINCHED (7 games remaining) - (clinch Atlantic Division with 4 points, clinch Eastern Conference with 15 points or winning out due to ROW tiebreaker over Cincinnati)
Cincinnati - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (clinch North Division with 2 points)
Gwinnett - 7 points (5 GR)
Florida - 11 points (8 GR) - (clinch South Division with 15 points)
Elmira - 13 points (8 GR)
Greenville - 13 points (7 GR)
Toledo - 15 points (6 GR)
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On the Bubble -- both teams have a maximum of 87 points at the moment, and if they both finish there, one would be in and one would be out on tiebreakers.
South Carolina - 13 points (6 GR) - (currently holds the ROW tiebreaker over K-zoo 30-25, and would maintain it if both win out)
Kalamazoo - 19 points (9 GR)
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Tragic Numbers
Wheeling - 11 points (18 GR)
Fort Wayne - 7 points (15 GR)
Trenton - 6 points (16 GR)
Orlando - 2 points (15 GR)
Evansville - ELIMINATED (8 GR)

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Magic Numbers
Alaska - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (clinch Mountain Division with 5 points, clinch Western Conference _and_ Brabham Cup with 7 points)
Ontario - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (also clinched Pacific Division and no worse than #2 seed)
Idaho - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (also clinched no worse than #3 seed)
Stockton - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (clinch first-round home ice advantage with 10 points)
Colorado - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (can finish no lower than #7 seed, can finish no higher than #4 seed)
Las Vegas - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (can finish no higher than #4 seed)
Utah - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (can finish no higher than #5 seed, thus cannot get first-round home ice)
San Francisco - 7 points (8 GR) - (can finish no higher than #6 seed)
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Tragic Numbers
Bakersfield - 7 points (6 GR) - (can finish no higher than #8 seed)

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[HansH]

Update after games of 3/17

And a St. Patty's day update. Orlando has joined Evansville in booking tee times, while Cincinnati has clinched their division and Gwinnett has joined the post-season party.

Some numbers may look a little off, but that's because in some cases teams have already clinched the first tiebreaker over the key team -- for example, Kalamazoo (the bubble team in the East) can get at most 32 ROW if they win out, but Toledo, Elmira, and Gwinnett (among other teams) already have 33 ROW, so for those teams, a tie is as good as finishing ahead of the Wings. But South Carolina, Greenville, and Florida do NOT yet have 33 ROW, so until they get to that point, they still need to get a point ahead of the Wings' max in order to clinch.

Also, my apologies for some incorrect "Games remaining" reported for the Tragic number teams in the East in the last update.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Magic Numbers
Reading - CLINCHED (6 games remaining) - (clinch Atlantic Division with 2 points, clinch Eastern Conference with 11 points)
Cincinnati - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (also clinched North Division. Can guarantee no worse than #2 seed with 4 points)
Gwinnett - CLINCHED (4 GR) - (Clinch first-round home ice with 6 points.)
Florida - 5 points (6 GR) - (Clinch first-round home ice with 10 points.)
Greenville - 6 points (5 GR)
South Carolina - 6 points (4 GR)
Elmira - 6 points (7 GR)
Toledo - 8 points (6 GR)
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Tragic Numbers
Kalamazoo - 8 points (7 GR)
Wheeling - 6 points (7 GR)
Fort Wayne - 5 points (6 GR)
Trenton - 1 point (7 GR)
Orlando - ELIMINATED (7 GR)
Evansville - ELIMINATED (6 GR)

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Magic Numbers
Alaska - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (clinch Mountain Division with 5 points, clinch Western Conference _and_ Brabham Cup with 7 points)
Ontario - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (also clinched Pacific Division and no worse than #2 seed)
Idaho - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (also clinched no worse than #3 seed)
Stockton - CLINCHED (3 GR) - (clinch first-round home ice advantage with 6 points, will finish somewhere from #4 to #6)
Colorado - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (will finish somewhere from #4 to #7)
Las Vegas - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (will finish somewhere from #4 to #7)
Utah - CLINCHED (7 GR) - (will finish somewhere from #5 to #8)
San Francisco - 2 points (6 GR) - (can finish no higher than #7 seed)
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Tragic Numbers
Bakersfield - 2 points (5 GR) - (can finish no higher than #8 seed, loses ROW tiebreaker with every team in the league)

 

[HansH]

Update before games of 3/23/13

Going into the penultimate weekend of the season, Bakersfield is finally mathematically eliminated, Trenton is eliminated, and it's the end of an era in Fort Wayne, as the Komets are now mathematically eliminated from the post-season for the first time in I don't know how many years.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Magic Numbers
Reading - CLINCHED (5 games remaining) - (also clinched Atlantic Division, clinch Eastern Conference with 7 points)
Cincinnati - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (also clinched North Division. Can guarantee no worse than #2 seed with 4 points)
Gwinnett - CLINCHED (3 GR)
Elmira - 3 points (6 GR)
Florida - 3 points (6 GR)
Greenville - 3 points (3 GR)
South Carolina - 5 points (4 GR)
Toledo - 5 points (5 GR)
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Tragic Numbers
Kalamazoo - 5 points (7 GR)
Wheeling - 4 points (7 GR)
Fort Wayne - ELIMINATED (5 GR)
Trenton - ELIMINATED (6 GR)
Orlando - ELIMINATED (5 GR)
Evansville - ELIMINATED (5 GR)

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Magic Numbers
Alaska - CLINCHED (4 GR) - (clinch Mountain Division with 3 points, clinch Western Conference _and_ Brabham Cup with 7 points)
Ontario - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (also clinched Pacific Division and no worse than #2 seed)
Idaho - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (also clinched no worse than #3 seed)
Stockton - CLINCHED (3 GR) - (clinch first-round home ice advantage with 6 points, will finish somewhere from #4 to #6)
Colorado - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (will finish somewhere from #4 to #7)
Las Vegas - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (will finish somewhere from #4 to #7)
Utah - CLINCHED (5 GR) - (will finish somewhere from #5 to #8)
San Francisco - CLINCHED (6 GR) - (will finish either #7 or #8)
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Tragic Numbers
Bakersfield - ELIMINATED (5 GR) - (will clinch league's worst record with the loss of three points)

 

[HansH]

After Saturday's games:

ELIMINATED:
Wheeling, Fort Wayne, Trenton, Orlando, Evansville, Bakersfield (one point away from clinching league's worst record).

ON THE BUBBLE:
Greenville - 1 point to clinch a playoff spot (would have clinched already but don't have the ROW tiebreaker over Kalamazoo clinched).
Toledo - 1 point to clinch a playoff spot (HAVE clinched ROW tiebreaker over Kalamazoo).
Kalamazoo - MUST win all four remaining games AND have Greenville and Toledo both lose each of their three remaining games in regulation.

CLINCHED:

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Reading - clinched Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division, #1 seed.
Cincinnati - clinched North Division and #2 seed.
Gwinnett - 2 points from clinching South Division and #3 seed (could fall as far as 5th)
Elmira - 7 points to lock down #4 seed, could fall as far as 8th.
Florida - could still win South, could fall as far as 8th.
South Carolina - could finish between 4th and 8th.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
Alaska - clinched Brabham Cup (as well as Western Conference and Mountain Division titles). Will host San Francisco in the first round.
Ontario - clinched Pacific Division and #2 seed. Will host Las Vegas, Colorado, or Utah in the first round.
Idaho - locked into #3 seed. Will host Las Vegas, Colorado, or Utah in the first round.
Stockton - locked into #4 seed. Will host Las Vegas, Colorado, or Utah in the first round.
Las Vegas - will finish between #5 and #7, will play Ontario, Idaho, or Stockton in the first round.
Colorado - will finish between #5 and #7, will play Ontario, Idaho, or Stockton in the first round.
Utah - will finish between #5 and #7, will play Ontario, Idaho, or Stockton in the first round.
San Francisco - locked into #8 seed, will play Alaska in the first round.