Dustin Byfuglien - Part II

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1563389

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[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

 

[Hollywood3]

Buff for a Norris nomination?

 

[Romang67]

I think we should play him as both an LD and an RD on the same pairing.

 

[Jet]

Funny it did the exact opposite for me.

I'm sorry but I am going to have to call bs on this. The system that the Jets are playing is entirely predicated on an extremely aggressive forecheck in the offensive zone. Our defensemen are routinely pinching to keep the play alive in the offensive zone, even a stay at home guy like Stuart has been more active with the puck. It is not something "Buff is doing" it's the system (even acknowledged by Maurice in his presser). You can't have your cake and eat it too, pinching on plays like that to try to keep the play alive is precisely the reason why the Jets are giving so few shots against by largely playing in the offensive zone. Same with Pardy in the Buffalo game, he pinched and some people blamed him for it but I saw it as just a part an parcel of the system. The forward did not do his job. Buff was right to pinch. I would support him making that play even with the benefit of hindsight.

You can't go around tiptoeing around other team's top players otherwise you are going to end up playing 25 mins while they are on the ice in your own end. I find it a bit rich that people are suggesting that the Jets change their style based on who is on the ice, when the entire critisism against this team last season and in the Noel days was that they always tended to play based on how the opposition wanted them to play

Defensemen aggressively pinching does not mean defensemen pinching with ZERO awareness for the system.

For your information the pinch down that side is when the puck is being punched up the boards and guess who is supporting that defensemen??? The winger on that side!!! Guess where that winger is? Losing a puck battle for that puck! Byfuglien should have awareness to know that A> he has next to no chance to get that puck and B> HIS SUPPORT IS TRAPPED DOWN THE WALL!!!!! He's done this multiple times. Then you add the fact that there is no respect for the fact that the 2 most dangerous Flyers are on the ice and it's just plain stupid.

Saying it's 'the system' is completely false. You have to use common sense and when it comes to protecting his net, Buff is missing the boat.

How about this for a "giveaway behind the net"?

Bravo. Pick out a mistake by Bogosian and magnify it. First of all, it's not not germaine to this discussion. Second of all, it was an isolated error. But you can trot it out if you think it helps your argument.

I have seen Bogo and Trouba make as many if not more mistakes as Buff has. And in Bogo's case there hasn't been much offence to make up for it either.

Yes, Bogosian and Trouba make mistakes, as do EVERY defenseman in the NHL, but there is a pattern to Byfuglien's mistakes. Bogosian and Trouba are making errors in execution, which humans do. Byfuglien makes errors in judgement, errors that should be repaired by someone dedicated to playing defense, which it's obvious Byfuglien is not.

Buff had 0 to do with last night's loss, he was the reason we were dominating and controlling the game for 40 minutes. As has been pointed out multiple times, any player that does anything meaningful with the puck has a higher chance to mishandling it. Buff was matched up against the top 2 scoring players in the NHL and pretty much kept them docile the entire game and if the goalie had not crapped the bed it would have been an easy 2 points and we wouldn't even be talking about this

I already said I would be talking about this had we won. I am not blaming Buff solely on this loss. If we had a couple more saves, or if the rest of the team decided to come out for the 3rd period we would have won. It wouldn't have changed the multiple critical errors that Byfuglien made. It's what you get with Buff. Good and bad. Last night it was more bad than good.

You have got to be kidding me

It's obvious that Buff sees the puck and moves towards it but Kane quickly passes it back to Harrison. Buff moves towards him to support the puck seeing that a Flyer had dived in front, but the puck has a already been turned over to Vinny, Buff's entire body momentum is still taking him forward and by the time he even has a realistic chance to turn around, the puck has already been shot (and all of this happened over the course of a second). Mathematically both Kane and Halischuck are closer to Vinny than Buff. Buff is not The Flash

I am not kidding you at all. What in the **** is Buff doing cheating over to Harrison's side? I'll tell you what he is doing. He sees an opportunity to touch the puck and he forgets WHERE HIS POSITIONING IS. When your partner is engaged with the puck on his side of the ice, you do not go over to his side to help. That is the Oilers style of defending and it does not work.

The proper play is to be in front of the net and look for an open opponent in the slot. If there is one you make sure that opponent cannot play said puck should it get to him. That is D 101. This is BASIC stuff for guys at this level.

Byfuglien had a terrible night and he was a very big factor as to why we lost.

 

[Ducky10]

Personally I think you're just as easily wrong, Buff had committed to supporting the puck along the wall before Ladd had even touched it, then Ladd whiffed on cylcling it to Little or eating it and allowing Buff to slide down the wall with it. In that particular forecheck Wheeler should be the guy covering for Chiarot who's job it is to slide over for Buff, which Chiarot does. Wheeler decides, or misreads that Ladd is going to cycle the puck around the net and floats down low, instead of angling towards the middle and being in better position to cover back in that situation. If you notice in the video it's Wheeler who is busting his ass to get back in the play, likely because he realized he was out of position, he was definitely the guy who did the least on that entire shift imo.

The Vinny goal imo was Buff thinking that the loose puck was floating back towards the goal, he moves to get it because Harrison is tied up and Kane swats it away from an approaching Buff. At that point the cluster ****** ensues, Buff is caught flat footed and Harrsion bats at the puck , the whole thing was a bunch of whack-a-mole gone bad, hardly Buff's fault.

The OT goal was every bit as much lack of execution on Buff's part as the Bogosian goal (or the Trouba pizza against Nashville) , he makes that play 9 times out of 10 and in a lot of those cases turns it up ice for a scoring opportunity.

Buff's mistakes are magnified disproportionately imo. He's way more valuable on the ice for 26 minutes a night as a D than for 18-20 minutes a night as a winger.

 

[KCjetsfan]

Personally I think you're just as easily wrong, Buff had committed to supporting the puck along the wall before Ladd had even touched it, then Ladd whiffed on cylcling it to Little or eating it and allowing Buff to slide down the wall with it. In that particular forecheck Wheeler should be the guy covering for Chiarot who's job it is to slide over for Buff, which Chiarot does. Wheeler decides, or misreads that Ladd is going to cycle the puck around the net and floats down low, instead of angling towards the middle and being in better position to cover back in that situation. If you notice in the video it's Wheeler who is busting his ass to get back in the play, likely because he realized he was out of position, he was definitely the guy who did the least on that entire shift imo.

The Vinny goal imo was Buff thinking that the loose puck was floating back towards the goal, he moves to get it because Harrison is tied up and Kane swats it away from an approaching Buff. At that point the cluster ****** ensues, Buff is caught flat footed and Harrsion bats at the puck , the whole thing was a bunch of whack-a-mole gone bad, hardly Buff's fault.

The OT goal was every bit as much lack of execution on Buff's part as the Bogosian goal (or the Trouba pizza against Nashville) , he makes that play 9 times out of 10 and in a lot of those cases turns it up ice for a scoring opportunity.

Buff's mistakes are magnified disproportionately imo. He's way more valuable on the ice for 26 minutes a night as a D than for 18-20 minutes a night as a winger.

said what i wanted to say but better.

 

[Shakey Rustie]

I think we should play him as both an LD and an RD on the same pairing.

And at RW simultaneously.

 

[Gm0ney]

Bravo. Pick out a mistake by Bogosian and magnify it. First of all, it's not not germaine to this discussion. Second of all, it was an isolated error. But you can trot it out if you think it helps your argument.

Yes, Bogosian and Trouba make mistakes, as do EVERY defenseman in the NHL, but there is a pattern to Byfuglien's mistakes. Bogosian and Trouba are making errors in execution, which humans do. Byfuglien makes errors in judgement, errors that should be repaired by someone dedicated to playing defense, which it's obvious Byfuglien is not.

Hang on...you're saying that Bogosian doesn't make as many errors in judgement as Buff? Preposterous. Bogo's game is entirely reliant on his athletic skill to overcome his poor judgement. He's like a more skilled Grant Clitsome...

Buff's judgement isn't perfect. He's saddled with a goalie who never bails him out of his mistakes. Seriously, the whole "Should Buff Play D" argument is out the window with halfway competent goaltending behind him. Even you noticed him "making the same mistakes" but they weren't ending up in the net when Hutch was playing.

The fact is, Buff is outscoring opponents 2:1 at evens right now - playing nearly 30 minutes a night against the toughest matchups with a 10-game NHL vet as his partner. If that's not good enough to convince you he deserves to stay on D, I don't think you'll ever be convinced.

 

[scelaton]

Hang on...you're saying that Bogosian doesn't make as many errors in judgement as Buff? Preposterous. Bogo's game is entirely reliant on his athletic skill to overcome his poor judgement. He's like a more skilled Grant Clitsome...

Buff's judgement isn't perfect. He's saddled with a goalie who never bails him out of his mistakes. Seriously, the whole "Should Buff Play D" argument is out the window with halfway competent goaltending behind him. Even you noticed him "making the same mistakes" but they weren't ending up in the net when Hutch was playing.

The fact is, Buff is outscoring opponents 2:1 at evens right now - playing nearly 30 minutes a night against the toughest matchups with a 10-game NHL vet as his partner. If that's not good enough to convince you he deserves to stay on D, I don't think you'll ever be convinced.

However one thinks about where Buff should play when the team is at full strength, this much is clear:
Buff is the undisputed on-ice leader of this team right now and is playing his heart out. It is worth reiterating that, since he moved to D, the team has garnered 11 of 16 available points in the standings, a significantly higher % than pre-Buff-on-D. This unlikely result has come with our entire top-4D out and LLW having gone quiet. Ladd has 1 point and is minus 5 in his last 5 games. Everyone has bad streaks, but in our moment of need, it is Buff who is leading the team through adversity.
I don't recall a more dominant performance by a Jet than Buff in the Philly game. He was likely guilty of trying too hard on the pinch and was completely bagged by the OT, but was not helped out by his team mates on either GA.
This is the most intense, committed and hardest working Buff I have yet seen and he deserves a lot more credit for keeping the team alive than he is getting here. The question of where he should play when Bogo and Trouba are back is still complicated and more related to our oversupply of RHD relative to forwards. But, for now, to focus on the few mistakes he makes while playing with a corps of rookies and scrubs entirely misses the point, namely, that he is carrying this team on his shoulders and contributing to a winning record in the face of unbelievable defensive adversity.

 

[KCjetsfan]

However one thinks about where Buff should play when the team is at full strength, this much is clear:
Buff is the undisputed on-ice leader of this team right now and is playing his heart out. It is worth reiterating that, since he moved to D, the team has garnered 11 of 16 available points in the standings, a significantly higher % than pre-Buff-on-D. This unlikely result has come with our entire top-4D out and LLW having gone quiet. Ladd has 1 point and is minus 5 in his last 5 games. Everyone has bad streaks, but in our moment of need, it is Buff who is leading the team through adversity.
I don't recall a more dominant performance by a Jet than Buff in the Philly game. He was likely guilty of trying too hard on the pinch and was completely bagged by the OT, but was not helped out by his team mates on either GA.
This is the most intense, committed and hardest working Buff I have yet seen and he deserves a lot more credit for keeping the team alive than he is getting here. The question of where he should play when Bogo and Trouba are back is still complicated and more related to our oversupply of RHD relative to forwards. But, for now, to focus on the few mistakes he makes while playing with a corps of rookies and scrubs entirely misses the point, namely, that he is carrying this team on his shoulders and contributing to a winning record in the face of unbelievable defensive adversity.

well said.

 

[truck]

However one thinks about where Buff should play when the team is at full strength, this much is clear:
Buff is the undisputed on-ice leader of this team right now and is playing his heart out. It is worth reiterating that, since he moved to D, the team has garnered 11 of 16 available points in the standings, a significantly higher % than pre-Buff-on-D. This unlikely result has come with our entire top-4D out and LLW having gone quiet. Ladd has 1 point and is minus 5 in his last 5 games. Everyone has bad streaks, but in our moment of need, it is Buff who is leading the team through adversity.
I don't recall a more dominant performance by a Jet than Buff in the Philly game. He was likely guilty of trying too hard on the pinch and was completely bagged by the OT, but was not helped out by his team mates on either GA.
This is the most intense, committed and hardest working Buff I have yet seen and he deserves a lot more credit for keeping the team alive than he is getting here. The question of where he should play when Bogo and Trouba are back is still complicated and more related to our oversupply of RHD relative to forwards. But, for now, to focus on the few mistakes he makes while playing with a corps of rookies and scrubs entirely misses the point, namely, that he is carrying this team on his shoulders and contributing to a winning record in the face of unbelievable defensive adversity.

I love this post - like a lot.

 

[Ducky10]

Bogo's game is entirely reliant on his athletic skill to overcome his poor judgement. He's like a more skilled Grant Clitsome...

Well that thought is thoroughly depressing ....Merry Christmas.

 

[Ducky10]

However one thinks about where Buff should play when the team is at full strength, this much is clear:
Buff is the undisputed on-ice leader of this team right now and is playing his heart out. It is worth reiterating that, since he moved to D, the team has garnered 11 of 16 available points in the standings, a significantly higher % than pre-Buff-on-D. This unlikely result has come with our entire top-4D out and LLW having gone quiet. Ladd has 1 point and is minus 5 in his last 5 games. Everyone has bad streaks, but in our moment of need, it is Buff who is leading the team through adversity.
I don't recall a more dominant performance by a Jet than Buff in the Philly game. He was likely guilty of trying too hard on the pinch and was completely bagged by the OT, but was not helped out by his team mates on either GA.
This is the most intense, committed and hardest working Buff I have yet seen and he deserves a lot more credit for keeping the team alive than he is getting here. The question of where he should play when Bogo and Trouba are back is still complicated and more related to our oversupply of RHD relative to forwards. But, for now, to focus on the few mistakes he makes while playing with a corps of rookies and scrubs entirely misses the point, namely, that he is carrying this team on his shoulders and contributing to a winning record in the face of unbelievable defensive adversity.

 

[SLAYER]

However one thinks about where Buff should play when the team is at full strength, this much is clear:
Buff is the undisputed on-ice leader of this team right now and is playing his heart out. It is worth reiterating that, since he moved to D, the team has garnered 11 of 16 available points in the standings, a significantly higher % than pre-Buff-on-D. This unlikely result has come with our entire top-4D out and LLW having gone quiet. Ladd has 1 point and is minus 5 in his last 5 games. Everyone has bad streaks, but in our moment of need, it is Buff who is leading the team through adversity.
I don't recall a more dominant performance by a Jet than Buff in the Philly game. He was likely guilty of trying too hard on the pinch and was completely bagged by the OT, but was not helped out by his team mates on either GA.
This is the most intense, committed and hardest working Buff I have yet seen and he deserves a lot more credit for keeping the team alive than he is getting here. The question of where he should play when Bogo and Trouba are back is still complicated and more related to our oversupply of RHD relative to forwards. But, for now, to focus on the few mistakes he makes while playing with a corps of rookies and scrubs entirely misses the point, namely, that he is carrying this team on his shoulders and contributing to a winning record in the face of unbelievable defensive adversity.

Most excellent, my thoughts exactly.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

 

[ps241]

However one thinks about where Buff should play when the team is at full strength, this much is clear:
Buff is the undisputed on-ice leader of this team right now and is playing his heart out. It is worth reiterating that, since he moved to D, the team has garnered 11 of 16 available points in the standings, a significantly higher % than pre-Buff-on-D. This unlikely result has come with our entire top-4D out and LLW having gone quiet. Ladd has 1 point and is minus 5 in his last 5 games. Everyone has bad streaks, but in our moment of need, it is Buff who is leading the team through adversity.
I don't recall a more dominant performance by a Jet than Buff in the Philly game. He was likely guilty of trying too hard on the pinch and was completely bagged by the OT, but was not helped out by his team mates on either GA.
This is the most intense, committed and hardest working Buff I have yet seen and he deserves a lot more credit for keeping the team alive than he is getting here. The question of where he should play when Bogo and Trouba are back is still complicated and more related to our oversupply of RHD relative to forwards. But, for now, to focus on the few mistakes he makes while playing with a corps of rookies and scrubs entirely misses the point, namely, that he is carrying this team on his shoulders and contributing to a winning record in the face of unbelievable defensive adversity.

Very good debate and an excellent post scelaton!

On the Big Show today they were referring to a Maurice interview yesterday where he apparently said he had watched allot of tape of Buff playing D last season and it didn't look like how Buff is playing D this season. Lawless mentioned Noel has been watching Buff play lately and Claude said that this is the guy they thought Buff could be on D but it’s not how he was playing last season when they made the switch. Right now I have no idea what they are going to do when and if everyone gets healthy on D again? I hope we are still in the hunt when Toby and Bogo start coming back.

 

[cbcwpg]

As a defenceman, I would never get rid of Buff. Does he make some mistakes? Sure, but I still think we are a better team with Buff as a D than Buff as a F. He's definitely more entertaining as a D. But that's JMO.

My concern with Buff has always been that it's going to always be up to Buff if he stays as a Jet long term, and not up to the Jets. If we use Buff the way he wants to be used I think we could keep him here forever, but if we don't... I just don't see him staying here past his current contract. And if he is going to leave, then we had better get something good in return.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Buff as a 20 min D-man is better than Buff as a 15 minute forward.

We really don't have a choice right now anyway. Buff needs to be a 30 min a night D-man.

 

[truck]

I am not kidding you at all. What in the **** is Buff doing cheating over to Harrison's side? I'll tell you what he is doing. He sees an opportunity to touch the puck and he forgets WHERE HIS POSITIONING IS. When your partner is engaged with the puck on his side of the ice, you do not go over to his side to help. That is the Oilers style of defending and it does not work.

The proper play is to be in front of the net and look for an open opponent in the slot. If there is one you make sure that opponent cannot play said puck should it get to him. That is D 101. This is BASIC stuff for guys at this level.

I didn't put this one on Buff at all. Harri should have pushed the puck to the wall, behind the net, not out front and if he had Buff would have been on the wall to get it. Regardless, Harri put the puck on the tape of an attacking forward. It was an accident. I classify that one as "**** happens." Not mad at Harri, definitely not mad at Buff.

The pinch play obviously hurt, but it is a play he usually makes to great success. As PoMo stated, somebody should have covered and not every two on one results in a goal against. The pinch wasn't the wrong play IMO. Sometimes you miss and it sucks when you do. Every D man misses on pinches though, I don't see this as an issue unique to Buff.

The OT goal is another where the mishandle sucks, but it didn't have to become a goal against. Turnovers in that area aren't all that uncommon. They don't always turn into goals against and the shot was stoppable. Buff messed up. Chiarot went the wrong way. Pav missed the save. Three big errors. I'd say this play was the most about Buff of the three, but meh. Not bagging the guy for any.

He has been rock solid since moving to D. The team defense has been pretty good despite some bad injuries. Bad games will happen and if this is as bad as it gets, I'll be very very happy.

 

[Bob E]

Hang on...you're saying that Bogosian doesn't make as many errors in judgement as Buff? Preposterous. Bogo's game is entirely reliant on his athletic skill to overcome his poor judgement. He's like a more skilled Grant Clitsome...

Buff's judgement isn't perfect. He's saddled with a goalie who never bails him out of his mistakes. Seriously, the whole "Should Buff Play D" argument is out the window with halfway competent goaltending behind him. Even you noticed him "making the same mistakes" but they weren't ending up in the net when Hutch was playing.

The fact is, Buff is outscoring opponents 2:1 at evens right now - playing nearly 30 minutes a night against the toughest matchups with a 10-game NHL vet as his partner. If that's not good enough to convince you he deserves to stay on D, I don't think you'll ever be convinced.

Not convinced either. Agree to disagree.

I find it hard to imagine Buff out scoring teams 2:1 but be a -4 in last 5 gms and basically even, since being a dman. My assumption is we're taking 5v5.

 

[wpgsilver]

Garret, do the stats take into account in any way the quality of the opportunities created when Buff is on the ice for and against.
For instance, take the 2 on 1 goal against last game. We had numerous shots on goal leading up to it, and they only had one shot on goal during the sequence. The difference is that their one shot was a prime scoring chance while ours (for arguments sake) were not.

Though I think Buff is a positive on D (or on O, I think he is one of the most gifted players in the entire league), when he does drop the ball on D it often leads to a grade A chance. Do the stats view every shot equally, so the 2 on 1 goal is viewed the same as a shot from the point?


I'm not sure if I'm totally clear in what I'm asking, but I'm wondering if stats are limited in how they assess chances for and against.

Repost from last thread.
Can any one answer this, I'm not baiting anyone, sincerely curious.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Repost from last thread.
Can any one answer this, I'm not baiting anyone, sincerely curious.

Those shot quality charts with the green and red hexagons should show that.

 

[Ducky10]

Karlsson is -14 so far this year, better move him to forward.

 

[garret9]

Garret, do the stats take into account in any way the quality of the opportunities created when Buff is on the ice for and against.
For instance, take the 2 on 1 goal against last game. We had numerous shots on goal leading up to it, and they only had one shot on goal during the sequence. The difference is that their one shot was a prime scoring chance while ours (for arguments sake) were not.

Though I think Buff is a positive on D (or on O, I think he is one of the most gifted players in the entire league), when he does drop the ball on D it often leads to a grade A chance. Do the stats view every shot equally, so the 2 on 1 goal is viewed the same as a shot from the point?


I'm not sure if I'm totally clear in what I'm asking, but I'm wondering if stats are limited in how they assess chances for and against.

Corsi and other shot differentials do not take into account quality, but they don't seem to need to. Both in a general sense and in this specific sense.

The specific bit is the what really gets me.

People are saying not all shots are equal (which is correct).
|Impact shot differentials| -> |impact shot quality| -> |impact goals|
Then people are saying that because of this they believe that Byfuglien's shot differentials undervalue his impact in goals.

There are two issues with this...

1) No model that attempts to take shot quality into account supports this claim.

a) I recently did shot differentials weighted by shot location (by areas that have 9%, 4%, and 2% chance in scoring, so nearly 2x the chance in each area) at Arctic Ice Hockey. They actually indicated that Corsi under values Byfuglien, because while Byfuglien saw a very slight increase in high % chances against, he also saw a very huge increase in high % chances for. Way larger in for than against.
You can see all the Jets here.

b) I also recently used weighted shot differentials, where goals, shots on goals, misses, and blocks are all weighed differently in value (sometimes noted as wSH or Tango). Byfuglien drops a bit but still stays in the black, while most of the Jets d-men are still in the red. Overall though you don't see much change because while goals are more importance; their rareness severely diminishes their impact in the model even though goals are weighted nearly 25x as meaningful per goal than per non-goal shot.

2) All of this becomes moot because (and I don't get why people don't take this into account) goals don't paint a different picture for Byfuglien anyways. Jets/Thrashers have a better goal differential with Byfuglien the d-man on the ice than on the bench. Jets/Thrashers have a worse goal differential than both of those with Byfuglien the forward.
So people are saying the disconnect in shot quality should lead to goals being different for Byfuglien than his shot quantity, we still see Byfuglien overall being a plus impact in goals anyways.

In the end, it really all seems to be that people don't like certain aspects of Byfuglien, so they evaluate with what they like and prefer, not what his impact is.