Draisaitl vs Hughes

[Xirik]

How is this still open lmao?

Biased + Devils fans go hand and hand.

coming from someone who hides his profile, your words really really hurt.

 

[LeProspector]

coming from someone who hides his profile, your words really really hurt.

You cared enough to respond.

 

[North Cole]

You can see the relative stats here:

View attachment 636176
View attachment 636177

Keep in mind this includes hundreds of minutes with an all time great player too. When you control for that, it doesn’t look pretty. I’m not even saying it’s a 100% guarantee Jack will always be better than him, he has just been the better player this season. And very clearly.

I assume this is relative to team mates and not each other, as when I run this for Drai vs someone else the numbers appear to be the same. Sorry not familiar with using this tool.

It's interesting that Hughes "rel against" stats are all negative (not good) and Drai are mostly positive, considering you tout Hughes as better defensively than Drai.

EDIT - retracting statement about Hughest defensively, had my sign backwards on the -rel against stats which is interesting because he's way ahead of Hischier. Makes more sense for Drai being negative rel against, but I'm still not sure how much of this is driven by what I posted earlier. Drai only plays 40% with McDavid so doesn't it makes sense that his rel offensively is worse than Hughes by a bigger margin, not only is Hughes not competing against McDavid 60% of the time, his most common linemate and him have an over 70 xgf.

I fully admit Drai needs to be better defensively but the issue I have with the rel tools is that I'm not sure how much weighting it's putting on which team mates and how it accounts for Qual-comp, not to mention that Drai's shooting is way down this year, while McDavid's is way up which cuts both ways on his "for" stats.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I assume this is relative to team mates and not each other, as when I run this for Drai vs someone else the numbers appear to be the same. Sorry not familiar with using this tool.

It's interesting that Hughes "rel against" stats are all negative (not good) and Drai are mostly positive, considering you tout Hughes as better defensively than Drai. Are they negative because he is actually just not good defensively or is it because relatively speaking he looks like week old borscht defensively compared to guys like NH and Sieg?

Can you explain why Drai has positive stats in most of these categories and then in the aggregate % categories he is heavily minus? It strikes me as a quirk that he could be slightly positive in CF/60 rel and massively positive in CA/60 rel but then be significantly minus in CF%/60 rel... My assumption is that if you are ahead in both ends of the ice, you should be ahead in the % aggregate. Yet most of these stats he's actually positive rel at both ends of the ice and then his % aggregate is caved in to the minus. Is that because his goaltending weighs down the x% portions of these stats? Is it because the 60% of his 5v5 ice time he is not with an all-time great player (no idea why you keep bringing this up when he's less than half his ice time there), that outlier is bringing down the %?

Without some explanation or context to the above issue, all this seems to be saying is that Hughes is better offensively than his team mates while being worse defensively (expected given that NH is a beast) and Drai is better offensively than his team mates while being significantly better defensively (expected because our team outside of him and McDavid are shit). If anything, that strengthens the point about why his GF/GA spread is so awful. He's breaking even against the team offensively which kind of makes sense since we he's not playing w mcdavid he's losing ground offensively since McDavid is rel +9 (higher than Hughes too).

It just smells weird to me that CF/CA/C% McDavid can be 9.26/3.18/2.55 and Hughes can be 8.53/-8.25/7.17.

Negative rel against is a good thing.

 

[McAsuno]

A 217 over 65? Yeah, lopsided.
Draisaitl > Hughes.

 

[bobholly39]

In Draisaitl's d+3 and d+4 seasons, he had 147p in 160gp (0.92 PPG). 25th in PPG for all guys > 80gp in that span.

During his d+3 and d+4 seasons, Hughes has 110p in 92gp (1.20 PPG). 15th in PPG during that span.

I know the question is about who the better player is now, but it's pretty unfair to bring up Hughes' lack of track record at this point.

In Laine's D+2 season, 44 goals, 70 points.
In MacKinnon's D+2 seasons, 38 points....

Laine > MacKinnon.

Or - you know - development isn't linear.

The takes in this thread are just so bad....

 

[North Cole]

Negative rel against is a good thing.

My fault, I looked for a while for confirmation but I missed this table

That makes me feel better because Drai being better than his team mates defensively was throwing me for a big loop as it matches exactly zero minutes of watching him on the ice. But that doesn't make sense to me for Hughes because NH has been generating selke talk, yet in shot metrics Hughes is minus against everywhere and NH barely treading water. Is Hughes that much better defensively than NH?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

In Laine's D+2 season, 44 goals, 70 points.
In MacKinnon's D+2 seasons, 38 points....

Laine > MacKinnon.

Or - you know - development isn't linear.

The takes in this thread are just so bad....

Reading is hard.

 

[Dust]

I'd take Draisaitl right now, however if Hughes continues his development and can string together some full seasons the sky is the limit for him.

 

[goonybird]

In Laine's D+2 season, 44 goals, 70 points.
In MacKinnon's D+2 seasons, 38 points....

Laine > MacKinnon.

Or - you know - development isn't linear.

The takes in this thread are just so bad....

Devils fans aren't the ones using track record as their argument but go on chief

 

[Xirik]

My fault, I looked for a while for confirmation but I missed this table
View attachment 636367

That makes me feel better because Drai being better than his team mates defensively was throwing me for a big loop as it matches exactly zero minutes of watching him on the ice. But that doesn't make sense to me for Hughes because NH has been generating selke talk, yet in shot metrics Hughes is minus against everywhere and NH barely treading water. Is Hughes that much better defensively than NH?

I'm not a stats guy but I believe Nico usually takes the harder match-ups and has been able to beat other teams top line or at least take them out of the game.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.