Drafting Forwards vs. Defencemen in the First Round

[ScoresFromCentre]

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[OMG67]

I have a new post up at the Hockey Writers, looking at the massive home runs Erie has hit by picking Strome, Raddysh, Lodnia, and McShane in four consecutive years. (I think even non-Otters fans might find it interesting!)

In researching my article, I noticed a couple things:

1) The Otters haven't picked a defenceman in the first round since 2006 (Mitch Gaulton, 4th overall).
2) Almost 80% of all players picked in the first round over the past seven years have been forwards.

Is this a coincidence? I know guys like Corey Pronman with ESPN have argued NHL teams should pick a forward over a defenceman at the top of the draft, all other things being equal. Is this true at the OHL level? Is it just safer to project high-end midget talent at forward than it is on defence?

With regards to the NHL where there is a salary cap, I have always said you should not pick a defenseman int he first round unless you project that player to push 50+ points per season and be a driving force #1 D-Man. Draft position and reputation have a lot to do with salary demands. If you pick a pure defensive D-Man in the top 10 of the NHL draft and they assert themselves as that defensive D-Man, it is likely they will demand upwards of $5+ mil whereas a free agent defensive D-Man picked lower int he draft but has more experiences and similar numbers would demand only $2mil. So, to me, if you are going to pay a D-Man $5+mil then that D-Man better be a higher end offensive d-Man.

In the OHL, I think a lot depends on organizational need because of turnover. But more importantly, it comes down to the effectiveness of your scouting int he 2nd and 3rd rounds where you unearth gems or duds. If you have a good number of 2nd through 4th round picks, you can quite often fill you defense corps with very serviceable players. It is harder to hit home runs on forwards in the later rounds.

The higher profile players, whether they are forwards or defense, are high picks through the middle of the second round. But, your question isn't necessarily looking at league leaders. It is about team and organization development. If you are picking top 10, that is your opportunity to draft your projected #1 centre. That player will usually have a bigger impact. If you are picking outside the top 10, I think it comes down to organizational need combined with best available with the tie breaker going towards centres and D-Men.

 

[rangersblues]

Very few defensemen are worthy of 1st round picks imo. Certainly not 5 out of 7 your first and second round picks in back to back to back years. That's where you need to pick high end scorers.

Good article by the way. You should send it to MM in Kitchener.

 

[EON]

Great article SFC. Erie definitely got lucky with Strome/Cernak returning this season but their drafting has been much better in the last few years and is a big part of the reason they're a title contender again this season. We'll see if the 2016 & 2017 drafts pan out, that will determine the success of their next cycle.

I would agree that picking a forward in the first round generally seems to be the better way to go. Defenseman and goalies seem to take a little longer to develop and are possibly harder to get a read on at the age of 16 (outside of the obvious talents).

 

[ScoresFromCentre]

With regards to the NHL where there is a salary cap, I have always said you should not pick a defenseman int he first round unless you project that player to push 50+ points per season and be a driving force #1 D-Man. Draft position and reputation have a lot to do with salary demands. If you pick a pure defensive D-Man in the top 10 of the NHL draft and they assert themselves as that defensive D-Man, it is likely they will demand upwards of $5+ mil whereas a free agent defensive D-Man picked lower int he draft but has more experiences and similar numbers would demand only $2mil. So, to me, if you are going to pay a D-Man $5+mil then that D-Man better be a higher end offensive d-Man.

In the OHL, I think a lot depends on organizational need because of turnover. But more importantly, it comes down to the effectiveness of your scouting int he 2nd and 3rd rounds where you unearth gems or duds. If you have a good number of 2nd through 4th round picks, you can quite often fill you defense corps with very serviceable players. It is harder to hit home runs on forwards in the later rounds.

The higher profile players, whether they are forwards or defense, are high picks through the middle of the second round. But, your question isn't necessarily looking at league leaders. It is about team and organization development. If you are picking top 10, that is your opportunity to draft your projected #1 centre. That player will usually have a bigger impact. If you are picking outside the top 10, I think it comes down to organizational need combined with best available with the tie breaker going towards centres and D-Men.

Great insight, OMG. I hadn't considered the financial implications at the NHL level, but that makes a ton of sense.

Very few defensemen are worthy of 1st round picks imo. Certainly not 5 out of 7 your first and second round picks in back to back to back years. That's where you need to pick high end scorers.

Good article by the way. You should send it to MM in Kitchener.

Thanks, RB! I hadn't realized the Rangers went quite that hard on defence early the last few years. Seems to really suggest they don't expect a few of those guys to show.

Great article SFC. Erie definitely got lucky with Strome/Cernak returning this season but their drafting has been much better in the last few years and is a big part of the reason they're a title contender again this season. We'll see if the 2016 & 2017 drafts pan out, that will determine the success of their next cycle.

I would agree that picking a forward in the first round generally seems to be the better way to go. Defenseman and goalies seem to take a little longer to develop and are possibly harder to get a read on at the age of 16 (outside of the obvious talents).

Thanks, EON! I'm hoping Erie can continue to contend (after the inevitable draft pick cupboard restock, of course). The Midwest has been much more interesting to follow with Erie and Owen Sound competitive again--though if all five of those teams get going at the same time (Guelph does still have seven 2nd round picks in the next two drafts.), things will be manic.