Draftin Europe April Ranking

NikF

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Sep 24, 2006
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Before the top division U18s kick off the last major tournament of the season for draft eligible prospects, we have released our updated rankings for the 2018 draft. Nothing has changed at #1 or #2 as Dahlin and Kotkaniemi remain untouched for us. After that, the last 2 months of hockey has brought some interesting developments and performances, which resulted in some movement inside our Top 10. This is our last public update to the rankings before the June draft guide release. We are currently scouting the U17 5 Nations tournament in Basel, but right after refining our 2019 draft ranking as a result of that tournament, our focus will move back to the 2018 class for the final stretch of the season.

2018 Draft April Top 10 – Draftin Europe
 

Subzero

Registered User
Jul 28, 2006
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Before the top division U18s kick off the last major tournament of the season for draft eligible prospects, we have released our updated rankings for the 2018 draft. Nothing has changed at #1 or #2 as Dahlin and Kotkaniemi remain untouched for us. After that, the last 2 months of hockey has brought some interesting developments and performances, which resulted in some movement inside our Top 10. This is our last public update to the rankings before the June draft guide release. We are currently scouting the U17 5 Nations tournament in Basel, but right after refining our 2019 draft ranking as a result of that tournament, our focus will move back to the 2018 class for the final stretch of the season.

2018 Draft April Top 10 – Draftin Europe
How do you rank the goaltenders in this draft?
 

NikF

Registered User
Sep 24, 2006
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I can’t get on board with Olofsson over most of the people on that list, especially Boqvist.

Olofsson before Kaut?

Keep in mind , Olofsson and Kaut are now closer than in the past on our list, and as you can notice from the overall value column they're in the same tier.

As we've mentioned in the past, Olofsson's ranking depends a lot on how more skilled players (Boqvist and Bokk being easy examples) do, he is probably a safer option but doesn't quite have the same talent and upside. Olofsson didn't have the best last two months (though he did pick it up recently in the qualifiction series for SHL against Karlskrona), and for NA viewers probably didn't blow anyone's socks off in Plymouth, but we're trying to consider the big picture of what we saw in him for 2 years now. As mentioned in the write-up, we were close to moving him down a bit further, but ultimately decided against it for now. There are still the U18s coming up that will factor in how that group of players gets ranked in our final rankings.

As for Kaut, we actually had him high even before he became a "popular" pick, he was in our Euro top 15 last season already, early 2nd overall and #11 in Europe at the start of this season and as a 1st rounder for a while, so safe to say we've liked the kid for more than a year now.
 

Draftin Europe

@draftin_europe
Oct 21, 2017
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How do you rank the goaltenders in this draft?
Making a comparison with last year, entering the season we had Tarasov and Luukkonen as the most relevant goalies, one didn't play at all, the other had an underwhelming season.

Before this season Skarek was the goalie clearly leading the pack, but didn't take as much of a step forward as one could think after what he showed at the very young age, so you can find a similarity in that there is no prominent goalie prospect going into the draft on a strong note.

This year's ranking appears to be wide open, but overall we find this crop to offer a few more interesting options than last year’s one.
 
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Draftin Europe

@draftin_europe
Oct 21, 2017
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Thanks for posting this, I'd have Boqvist up there in the 2nd spot though.
Talent wise that could make sense, on the other hand if we went with how he performed at a higher level against tougher competition (SHL) he should actually be lower than Lundkvist and Lundestrom... so, weighing in everything, his current ranking ends up being quite the compromise between the goods and the struggles
 

Zaddy

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Feb 8, 2013
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Talent wise that could make sense, on the other hand if we went with how he performed at a higher level against tougher competition (SHL) he should actually be lower than Lundkvist and Lundestrom... so, weighing in everything, his current ranking ends up being quite the compromise between the goods and the struggles

I'm surprised you guys put that much weight on limited ice time in one of the best leagues in the world for a 17 year old defenseman who is nowhere near physical maturation, but that does explain your ranking of him.

On the flipside that makes your ranking of Denisenko look rather strange, he is even less proven and his numbers in juniors regressed this year compared to last. Boqvist at least dominated his junior league and put up stronger numbers as a d-man than a forward who, from what I've seen, is a pure skill guy.

I'd be curious to know what your rationale is behind that decision?
 
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Castle8130

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May 9, 2017
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I think people base their rankings so much off of the average consensus that they find it super weird when people have completely out of the ordinary rankings. For example, people freaked out when Elias Pettersson was picked #5 and bashing benning for doing so right after the draft (he was ranked 9-12 for most people). Now people are saying he is going to be possibly the best player of the draft. I respect all rankings people have.
 

NikF

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Sep 24, 2006
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I'm surprised you guys put that much weight on limited ice time in one of the best leagues in the world for a 17 year old defenseman who is nowhere near physical maturation, but that does explain your ranking of him.

On the flipside that makes your ranking of Denisenko look rather strange, he is even less proven and his numbers in juniors regressed this year compared to last. Boqvist at least dominated his junior league and put up stronger numbers as a d-man than a forward who, from what I've seen, is a pure skill guy.

I'd be curious to know what your rationale is behind that decision?

To help explain what we meant, it would maybe be better if we try to illuminate the context we're looking at. Part of the confusion might come from the fact that Boqvist has been very high (mostly top 10 if not top 5) on most other lists since the start of the year, while he has never been a top 10 prospect overall for us. So we're not "dropping" Boqvist because of the lack of performance against pros, rather we're not putting him any higher because in pros (he did total 125 minutes on SHL ice this season, and while obviously we didn't watch all of them he also appeared in 7 Allsvenskan games when he was on loan with Almtuna) some of our concerns were confirmed rather than getting 'addressed'. The difference is when playing against juniors for example it rarely matters if his intensity or defensive zone game aren't the best, but they can still be observed. Another 17yrs old defenseman like Lundkvist didn't find success at SHL level because he has more talent or better physical qualities than Boqvist, nor do we think it's just "player usage", Lundkvist at this point just has things that make him a successful SHL defenseman that Boqvist has yet to show. Right now Lundkvist's level of engagement and defensive game are such that he can play SHL hockey. Keep in mind we do have Boqvist ahead because as the more talented of the two he offers more upside, but it's not a surefire thing that those kind of attributes will automatically get much better with age (getting stronger is something that can be counted on, but mental attributes are a little harder to improve). Had we seen shifts at the pro level where Boqvist did show those things will for sure come for him, we would be much more comfortable placing him higher right now. There are still the U18s coming up and although it's not pro-hockey, we can still observe whether those attributes will look better or not. So it's not like he's blocked from moving higher on our board if he does manage to show a step forward in those aspects.

In reference to your mention of Denisenko, assuming for a second you're correct in your evaluation one could ask.. is it more concerning to be a pure skill guy for a forward or for a defenseman?
 
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Zaddy

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Feb 8, 2013
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To help explain what we meant, it would maybe be better if we try to illuminate the context we're looking at. Part of the confusion might come from the fact that Boqvist has been very high (mostly top 10 if not top 5) on most other lists since the start of the year, while he has never been a top 10 prospect overall for us. So we're not "dropping" Boqvist because of the lack of performance against pros, rather we're not putting him any higher because in pros (he did total 125 minutes on SHL ice this season, and while obviously we didn't watch all of them he also appeared in 7 Allsvenskan games when he was on loan with Almtuna) some of our concerns were confirmed rather than getting 'addressed'. The difference is when playing against juniors for example it rarely matters if his intensity or defensive zone game aren't the best, but they can still be observed. Another 17yrs old defenseman like Lundkvist didn't find success at SHL level because he has more talent or better physical qualities than Boqvist, nor do we think it's just "player usage", Lundkvist at this point just has things that make him a successful SHL defenseman that Boqvist has yet to show. Right now Lundkvist's level of engagement and defensive game are such that he can play SHL hockey. Keep in mind we do have Boqvist ahead because as the more talented of the two he offers more upside, but it's not a surefire thing that those kind of attributes will automatically get much better with age (getting stronger is something that can be counted on, but mental attributes are a little harder to improve). Had we seen shifts at the pro level where Boqvist did show those things will for sure come for him, we would be much more comfortable placing him higher right now. There are still the U18s coming up and although it's not pro-hockey, we can still observe whether those attributes will look better or not. So it's not like he's blocked from moving higher on our board if he does manage to show a step forward in those aspects.

Fair enough, although I obviously disagree with your assessment of him as a player. Personally speaking I don't think it's worth putting that much weight on what a 17 year old, physically underdeveloped kid does against grown men. If Boqvist didn't show any aptitude defensively in juniors either then yes that would obviously be a concern, but to me he has showed that he has what it takes to be a solid defender. The things that he does and the way he defends against players his own age will translate to the pros when he gets older and matures physically.

Also the way I read your explanation above it seems to me that you have questions about his hockey IQ? I don't. I think he's a very smart player and that's one of the main things that makes me confident in him being able to handle the transition to the pro game. He's not a toolsy guy with questionable hockey sense like Liljegren for instance, and Liljegren struggled not just in SHL last year but also in juniors with his defensive play. So him I was actually not a big fan of. Boqvist is different.

Obviously I could be super wrong about Boqvist and look like an idiot a couple of years down the road, but in my experience of evaluating prospects is that it's pretty much never a bad idea to bet on talent. If you're talented enough you usually manage to find a way to be successful, and talent is something Boqvist have in spades.

In reference to your mention of Denisenko, assuming for a second you're correct in your evaluation one could ask.. is it more concerning to be a pure skill guy for a forward or for a defenseman?

First of all I didn't say that Boqvist was a pure skill guy and secondly Boqvist is producing and at a better rate as a defenseman than Denisenko. And yes, I think it's always more concerning when a forward isn't producing like he should than a defenseman, because obviously the main objective of a forward is to score while the main objective for a defenseman is to defend.
 

NikF

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Sep 24, 2006
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Fair enough, although...

First off, thanks for your thoughts. We didn't want to turn the thread into a discussion about just one player, but it looks like we still need to further clarify a few points. Hopefully somebody will find it worthwhile to see our thought process behind our rankings even if he ends up disagreeing with our overall assessment.

1. A key contention seems to be that we are placing a lot of emphasis on his pro performance. We are not. Things we saw in Boqvist's JUNIOR game over last 2 years (part of the reason why we didn't rank him as high as others even prior to this season) which we feared might pose challenges to him when playing against pros (or NHL caliber competition down the line) were so far confirmed in the games we saw of him playing against pros. Those issues aren't completely gone when he plays against juniors, but they don't jump out nearly as much, mainly because junior players aren't good enough for the most part to challenge him in that way.

2. Those issues are not strictly related to physical development. We feel like his intensity and level of engagement defensively and away from the puck are not at that high of a level. Something we've been seeing for more than a year. That doesn't mean, he won't make the NHL or be a good player, it's just an issue we saw that makes us wonder how that will affect his ultimate impact down the line at a pro-level. Those issues to us seem more related to mental attributes than to the need of adding more strength. That doesn't imply bad hockey IQ, either.

3. Our claim is that it is not automatic that an attribute like that gets much better with age. Of course that doesn't mean it's impossible either.

4. All of this plays into our ranking of him. We are trying to gauge all of this and that's what is reflected in our ranking. We mostly agree on your comment relative to talent but we would say the talent is also reflected in our ranking of Boqvist. For some that might still be too low, but that's probably a good example of why NHL teams rankings going into the draft can be so different.

5. With the Denisenko question we made, the implication was that we consider Boqvist as much of a pure skill guy as him. Ironically, Denisenko is the guy of the two who has occasionally shown more willingness to be more than a pure skill guy, though his success through tough situations/plays still varies at this point in time. Still, it would be hard for us to find something in Boqvist's game that would imply he is something "beyond" a pure skill player that Denisenko also doesn't have. You can say that Boqvist is smart and not just skilled, but the equal holds for Denisenko in our mind.

6. Denisenko started his season cold, but since the Plymouth tournament has been scoring at a rate that is more in line with his skill level, so that eased some of our concerns regarding his production.

Anyways, I hope this gives a better picture of where we're at. Obviously this can still change and it's possible that our current opinion on that might be proven wrong down the line too, but we always try to explain why we rank certain players the way we do and try not to take the easy way out with adjusting to "consensus". Obviously the place where we especially do that is inside our draft guide.
cleardot.gif
 
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Lays

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Jan 22, 2017
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I think people base their rankings so much off of the average consensus that they find it super weird when people have completely out of the ordinary rankings. For example, people freaked out when Elias Pettersson was picked #5 and bashing benning for doing so right after the draft (he was ranked 9-12 for most people). Now people are saying he is going to be possibly the best player of the draft. I respect all rankings people have.
This. I have Wahlstrom at 3rd on my list and Hughes 4th, Zadina 5th. McLaughlin 20th. People may freak out over that but remember, drafts never end up anywhere near the consensus. If someone sees something in a prospect, they should be entitled to rank him wherever. I also guarantee if someone watched games of each and every player without looking at any other draft ranking and made their own, it would look nothing like the consensus
I had Rob Thomas top 15 at the time where he wasn’t ranked in the first round, more early second. Look how that turned up. EP for me was ranked top 5 the whole season, even when people had him 15-25 early-mid last season
Also see Lias Andersson and Chytil, Rangers got absolutely roasted, Chytil wasn’t close to most first round rankings and Lias was 13-18. They’re both looking like studs now
 

Castle8130

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May 9, 2017
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This. I have Wahlstrom at 3rd on my list and Hughes 4th, Zadina 5th. McLaughlin 20th. People may freak out over that but remember, drafts never end up anywhere near the consensus. If someone sees something in a prospect, they should be entitled to rank him wherever. I also guarantee if someone watched games of each and every player without looking at any other draft ranking and made their own, it would look nothing like the consensus
I had Rob Thomas top 15 at the time where he wasn’t ranked in the first round, more early second. Look how that turned up. EP for me was ranked top 5 the whole season, even when people had him 15-25 early-mid last season
Also see Lias Andersson and Chytil, Rangers got absolutely roasted, Chytil wasn’t close to most first round rankings and Lias was 13-18. They’re both looking like studs now
I can see a lot of others following Wahlstrom over Zadina. Neither of them are super fast and they are more agile/sniper type players. They both have similar skillsets, and Wahlstrom works really hard.
 

Draftin Europe

@draftin_europe
Oct 21, 2017
73
78
I also guarantee if someone watched games of each and every player without looking at any other draft ranking and made their own, it would look nothing like the consensus
THIS is in fact what we try to do. We realize it is impossible to be 100% free of 'consensus contamination' while being actually aware of several other rankings, but we do make an effort to base our judgements only on our viewings and ensuing feelings.

As we focus exclusively on prospects playing in Europe we probably watch more of them than those who have to compile overall rankings for all draft eligible players, so for us it would probably make even less sense to care about consensus when compiling our rankings.

That's how we felt when we put N.Hischier and E.Pettersson ahead of Liljegren already at the beginning of last season, or when we put little known (back then) R.Dahlin ahead of A.Svechnikov almost 2 years ago, or Kotkaniemi so far ahead of Kupari when he was behind on the other lists.
While the jury is obviously still out on these early calls (especially on Kotkaniemi), and while some unpopular rankings may bring criticism and look bad in hindsight if eventually proved wrong, we think this is the best way for us to add on what's already available out there and to remain passionate while keeping on doing it.
 
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pckstpr31

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Jul 13, 2010
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I also guarantee if someone watched games of each and every player without looking at any other draft ranking and made their own, it would look nothing like the consensus

I think this is a really important and well put point. We're exposed to so many different rankings without (for the most part) seeing enough actual gameplay, and form a baseline of knowledge that's based on consensus. So when something goes against consensus, it's really salient, and the initial reaction is to question it. It's sort of an unavoidable effect of the nature of these boards. That's why I appreciate threads like these that really go into the detail behind the ranking process.

@Draftin Europe I'd be curious to hear what you think about Bulat Shafigullin, and what you like about Kotkaniemi/Denisenko that they're higher than Kravtsov
 
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Draftin Europe

@draftin_europe
Oct 21, 2017
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@Draftin Europe I'd be curious to hear what you think about Bulat Shafigullin, and what you like about Kotkaniemi/Denisenko that they're higher than Kravtsov
About Denisenko/Kravtsov:
if you look at the overall 'value' column on the right of our ranking table you can see they're currently rated the same for that matter, so they're very close at this point for us.
The preference for Denisenko comes from the difference in their showings on the international stage over the last two seasons. The fact Kravtsov has never shined in international competition so far also probably explains some low rankings for him on North American scouting circles/services before his recent breakout during KHL playoffs.
There are obviously specific differences in their game and we will certainly go into that inside our draft guide, but you could make an argument going both ways off what one does better than the other.

As for Kotkaniemi, he has been a real favourite of ours since last season, we really like his tools and we feel he hasn't really showed yet what he could do once fully developed, partially because he has always been playing at least a level up than his age/development would suggest. With our ranking of him there is projection involved of course, which makes his ranking somewhat risky if you want, but we don't think you can even hope to have rankings to turn out 'right' eventually without trusting your educated feelings about the prospect’s mid/long term projection.

Lastly, we find Shafigullin to be an interesting prospect. We had him in our February release and we find it hard to understand how he was left out entirely from Central Scouting midterm list. We will definitely have at least a full page scouting report on him in our draft guide, like we do for all the top 50/60 draft eligible prospects we rank in Europe (others beyond that only get the regular profile).
 

TLP

Registered User
Apr 9, 2018
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We’ll see how Kotkaniemi and Kupari (if he comes) do in u18. Will answer critics and proponents of both.
 

NikF

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Sep 24, 2006
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We’ll see how Kotkaniemi and Kupari (if he comes) do in u18. Will answer critics and proponents of both.

It's not like the U18 will provide the ultimate truth though, especially when in Kupari's case (Karpat in Liiga finals) if he does end up playing there it will be for an even smaller sample of games.
 

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