Draft Order / Lottery Improvement

[Ober]

Here is my solution:


MOST RECENTLY:
* Season ticket holders in far too many locations are being purposely and strategically forced to watch minor league rosters at major league prices for upwards of the last ¼ of the regular season WHICH IS A JOKE!
* What Buffalo did last season to “attempt to win†the Connor McDavid sweepstakes WAS A JOKE!
* What the Vancouver Canucks (and many other teams too) are putting on the ice the last month of this season IS A JOKE!
* The fact that the multi-year mismanaged Edmonton Oilers keep getting rewarded with high draft picks IS A JOKE!

PROBLEM:
* Being a “seller†at the trade deadline…should not be rewarded with a higher draft pick
* Organizational “tanking†and/or icing a minor league team…should not be rewarded with a higher draft pick
* Year after year of Management/Ownership incompetence…should not be rewarded by a higher draft pick
* Having games where losing effectively means more than winning at anytime during a regular season…should NEVER happen!

SOLUTION:
* FOR ALL THE NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS…THE RECORD IN THE FINAL 20-25 GAMES OF THE SEASON DETERMINES DRAFT ORDER (or at least determines your lottery odds)
* PLAYOFF TEAMS…CONTINUE TO PICK IN THE ORDER OF THEIR FINISH (ie: 16th place playoff team still picks 15th overall…2nd place still picks 29th…etc)

WHY THIS WORKS:
* Losing and poor management is no longer rewarded…Winning and solid management is rewarded!
* No Management Group will ever purposely ice a team to increase their chances of losing ever again!
* Winning becomes the only incentive for ALL 82 games each season…which is exactly how it should be!
* Playing well post trade deadline EITHER gets you into the playoffs OR gives you a higher draft pick (or better odds related to lottery)

Click to read more...

 

[gbill2004*]

The idea might need some tweaking, but I really like this concept.

 

[raideralex99]

You are correct about the fans getting ripped off for watching a minor league team but there is no right way to stop tanking.
I think it's a good thing for the teams out of the playoffs to bring up their players and give them a shot in the big leagues but they should lower the prices to the games because they have no problem jacking them up for the playoffs.

Maybe they should have a playoff for the non playoff teams for the #1 pick or maybe all the sellers at the TD should be penaltized ... the more trades they make the more their odds go down.

 

[Jetsetter]

I like what you've conceived! I would say that the last 20 games determines your lottery odds only. Then you cheer for your team to win. The end of the season means something for nearly every team in the league.

Good thinking!

 

[Ober]

...but there is no right way to stop tanking.

Your comment begs the question..."why are teams tanking in the first place?" Answer...for a higher draft pick! How do you stop tanking? Do not reward losing!

I would say that the last 20 games determines your lottery odds only.

I concur. A decision is made by each organization at the trade deadline to "sell or buy"....which for most teams means about 20 games left to play that season.

Under this proposal...FOR ALL TEAMS IN AND OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS...Winning games helps the organization...while Losing hurts! There is no reward for bad or mismanagement.

 

[Jetsetter]

Just thought of something that may have a negative effect by doing it this way.

This proposal is aimed at poorer teams that try and lose or at least assist in losing. Also maintaining a positive push for the fans.

What about the quasi good teams battling for a playoff spot and get bounced out of the playoff's on the last day of the regular season. They might have the best odds at getting the #1 draft chose and in the Central that team will be much better than the other bottom 10.

 

[Say What]

Novel idea, Kudos. However, the BOG would shoot it down...instantly.

IMO, the sticking point would be scheduling. Home vs Away games remaining, strength of opponent remaining etc.. The Lottery odds must be based on the overall league standings (more interconference/division games are played at the end), otherwise it's not grading apples to apples. Maybe there's a tweak available. I like the idea.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Maybe it should be calculated by the record after elimination.

 

[Evil Little]

One popular theory is to start counting the 'draft points' or 'lottery points' after a team is mathematically eliminated, but the loser point means that even terrible teams are eliminated very late and while the teams do need to win some games it does incentivize being terrible earlier in the season.

By this method the Oilers still get McDavid, too.

 

[Ober]

Looked at last year stats to come up with the following hypothetical. Based on each teams last years final 20 games and using this years Lottery% as comparison...here is how the odds would have been assigned based on this new proposal:

Last Year% W L OTL Pts Prop %
CBJ 06.00% 16 03 1 33 20.00%
DAL 02.50% 14 06 0 28 13.50%
COL 03.50% 12 07 1 25 11.50%
LAK 02.00% 11 06 3 25 09.50%
BOS 01.00% 10 05 5 25 08.50%
FLA 03.00% 11 07 2 24 07.50%
PHA 06.50% 07 06 7 21 06.50%
SJS 05.00% 10 09 1 21 06.00%
NJD 07.50% 07 09 4 18 05.00%
CAR 08.50% 06 10 4 16 03.50%
EDM 11.50% 06 10 4 16 03.00%
TOR 09.50% 05 12 3 13 02.50%
BUF 20.00% 04 13 3 11 02.00%
ARI 13.50% 04 15 1 09 01.00%

"Tanking" teams are punished!
No reward for losing games...Winning is what matters!
All 82 games become important for all teams...playoffs or not!
BOG may hate this proposal simply because sitting on your hands and/or bad management will no longer be rewarded!
As a season ticket holder....I LOVE IT

...the sticking point would be scheduling. Home vs Away games remaining, strength of opponent remaining etc...

There is already an imbalanced schedule regarding strength of teams played and/or stronger/weaker divisions so don't see that as being an issue. When the schedule is set all teams are considered "equal". Home vs Away games...maybe.

 

[Say What]

There is already an imbalanced schedule regarding strength of teams played and/or stronger/weaker divisions so don't see that as being an issue. When the schedule is set all teams are considered "equal". Home vs Away games...maybe.

Though the bolded is true in theory, that is based on the 'entire' schedule.

If a cut off is determined for draft positioning, then the schedule becomes imbalanced for some teams (unfair advantage gained or lost).

 

[RustyCat]

I like it. Like someone said, needs tweaking but I think you got yourself a pretty good idea.

 

[Boxertim]

....but the teams that are losing are bad....

Just make it a random lottery every year.

 

[BigZ65]

I don't believe that they care in a macro sense about the quality of the game on the ice. I believe a lot of people involved do, but on the whole the league doesn't.

The fact they are expanding when pretty much every game currently features every second-third shift with a slate of players essentially just trying not to mess up too bad with little ability to achieve the goal of the game (scoring goals) speaks to that. They don't care about the product.

 

[ellismate]

I like what you've conceived! I would say that the last 20 games determines your lottery odds only. Then you cheer for your team to win. The end of the season means something for nearly every team in the league.

Good thinking!

I'd prefer omitting the games after the trade deadline for draft odds. Take the standings up until teams give up on trying to win.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Here is my solution:


MOST RECENTLY:
* Season ticket holders in far too many locations are being purposely and strategically forced to watch minor league rosters at major league prices for upwards of the last ¼ of the regular season WHICH IS A JOKE!
* What Buffalo did last season to “attempt to win†the Connor McDavid sweepstakes WAS A JOKE!
* What the Vancouver Canucks (and many other teams too) are putting on the ice the last month of this season IS A JOKE!
* The fact that the multi-year mismanaged Edmonton Oilers keep getting rewarded with high draft picks IS A JOKE!

PROBLEM:
* Being a “seller†at the trade deadline…should not be rewarded with a higher draft pick
* Organizational “tanking†and/or icing a minor league team…should not be rewarded with a higher draft pick
* Year after year of Management/Ownership incompetence…should not be rewarded by a higher draft pick
* Having games where losing effectively means more than winning at anytime during a regular season…should NEVER happen!

SOLUTION:
* FOR ALL THE NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS…THE RECORD IN THE FINAL 20-25 GAMES OF THE SEASON DETERMINES DRAFT ORDER (or at least determines your lottery odds)
* PLAYOFF TEAMS…CONTINUE TO PICK IN THE ORDER OF THEIR FINISH (ie: 16th place playoff team still picks 15th overall…2nd place still picks 29th…etc)

WHY THIS WORKS:
* Losing and poor management is no longer rewarded…Winning and solid management is rewarded!
* No Management Group will ever purposely ice a team to increase their chances of losing ever again!
* Winning becomes the only incentive for ALL 82 games each season…which is exactly how it should be!
* Playing well post trade deadline EITHER gets you into the playoffs OR gives you a higher draft pick (or better odds related to lottery)

You have come up with an interesting concept. I'm all for the tank but at the same time I hate it. I cheer for the Jets to play well. I want them to win, I just don't want the 2 points. Your idea gives at least some meaning to the end of the season.

It would affect TD selling also. Do we sell this player or use him to try for a better lottery pick?

I would say make all 14 non-playoff picks in the lottery and the last 20 games determine the lottery odds. This makes the last 20 games mean something but at the same time does not make them worth too much. Parity is generally a good thing so we want to provide bad teams a way to improve.

Making the late games mean better odds is all it would take to end deliberate tanking. Building teams might still take advantage of the late season to bring up prospects but only those who will not hurt their lottery chances. The same would apply to selling at the TD. Is the return worth the risk of lower odds?

Yup. I think I like it. And I didn't expect to when I started reading your OP.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Though the bolded is true in theory, that is based on the 'entire' schedule.

If a cut off is determined for draft positioning, then the schedule becomes imbalanced for some teams (unfair advantage gained or lost).

No system is perfect. I would not bias the odds too steaply from top to bottom. That wouldn't be necessary. Just enough of a slope in the odds to encourage trying to win. It wouldn't take much. The top is the team that finishes 1st in the standings for the last 20 games. The bottom is 14th. The winner has a little more than 2.5x the chance of the loser. That is plenty of incentive.
10.25
9.75
9.25
8.75
8.25
7.75
7.25
7.25
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd prefer omitting the games after the trade deadline for draft odds. Take the standings up until teams give up on trying to win.

So what do you do with a team that is in the PO race until the last game? Teams don't give up because there is a TD. They make a decision to be buyers or sellers or neither. Related but not the same. So then the sellers don't tank but they certainly quit trying. They just go through the motions. No, I think some incentive to win the last 20 games is much better.

 

[razorsedge]

I'd just rather the odds be a bit more balanced, making it a true lottery. So a "bubble" team has just as much of a chance picking first as a "tanking" team. Its a team game and foregoing scouting for talent is put aside to just draft first overall. The Oilers are a prime example of figuring that drafting top 5 every year is a way of building a team instead of trying to build a team by putting effort in scouting and getting the best player with all their picks.

 

[ellismate]

So what do you do with a team that is in the PO race until the last game? Teams don't give up because there is a TD. They make a decision to be buyers or sellers or neither. Related but not the same. So then the sellers don't tank but they certainly quit trying. They just go through the motions. No, I think some incentive to win the last 20 games is much better.

If a team is in the PO run until their last game like the Jets were last season, I'd say their team isn't in dire need of a draft lottery. Also, the TD was just an arbitrary point in the season, and is often when the decision to start the tank starts. It had little to do with the TD itself, but lets say if you trade your top D and vet winger for a couple of people on IR, they'd make that decision around the TD.

Then what about teams that are legitimately awful? It would appear that the team 10th from the bottom would have a serious edge over the team that held the basement for the entire first 60 games. Also, the idea of them being non-playoff teams seems a little weird since you'd like... have to be clinched out of playoffs before we could even start that. What if a team who was in a basement race with 25 games to go went on a tear because their starting goalie came back from injury or something?

 

[Ober]

Root of my proposal is really to eliminate so called "tanking" and the subsequent reward given to an organization that (in many cases) simply purges/sells players at the trade deadline and/or ices minor league squads late in the season for the main benefit of getting higher odds of obtaining a high draft pick.

THE CURRENT DRAFT LOTTERY REWARDS ORGANIZATIONS THAT LOSE...and this allows management an opportunity (especially in the last 25% of the regular season) to manipulate their iced rosters to enhance "not winning" which in turn rewards that organization for doing so. This is just simply wrong as it becomes more beneficial to lose...AND THIS SHOULD BE ELIMINATED.

...odds be a bit more balanced, making it a true lottery.

...build a team by putting effort in scouting and getting the best player with all their picks.

100% agree. Odds should be tightened somewhat and organizations should not be given a simple out due to incompetence or bad management.

If a team is in the PO run until their last game like the Jets were last season, I'd say their team isn't in dire need of a draft lottery...Then what about teams that are legitimately awful?

Just as making the playoffs does not automatically make you "great"...missing the playoffs does not automatically make you "bad". Currently organizations are allowed to manipulate their success and then effectively get rewarded for losing. This should not happen.

No system is perfect...I would not bias the odds too steaply from top to bottom.

100% agree...tighten them up

...Just make it a random lottery every year.

Random lottery would eliminate tanking...but does nothing for fans of teams out of playoffs to help give significance to final 25% of regular season!

 

[ellismate]

Okay just to remind people, the team that finishes in dead last atm, has a 47% chance of picking 4th still.

 

[Gil Fisher]

This is a decent proposal, but I really like the idea of a single-elimination tournament running opposite the playoffs, perhaps on off-days, for the seeding order. That would be a lot of fun.

 

[Boxertim]

This is a decent proposal, but I really like the idea of a single-elimination tournament running opposite the playoffs, perhaps on off-days, for the seeding order. That would be a lot of fun.

This would never be allowed by the players association

 

[kylbaz]

Here is mine I posted on the main boards. APparently someone else also came up with the idea:

When a team is mathematically eliminated, a new season starts, best team gets #1 pick

So when your team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, your new season starts. In a separate stat/column, your point total would start at zero. Whoever has the most points since they were eliminated until the end of the season gets the #1 lottery spot, and so on.

It keeps the games for the non play off teams competitive. They have to go out and want to win every night.

It keeps games entertaining for the fans, if their team wins they get a top pick and the team is still putting an effort out.

ie Toronto is eliminated with 14 games left. After that they go 5-9 for 10 points.

Columbus is eliminated with 8 games left. They go 5-2-1 for 11 points. Columbus would get the #1 spot.