Draft Lottery - May 7th @ 6:30 ET, ESPN (upd: #1 SJS, #2 CHI, #3 ANA)

[Wallet Inspector]

I made this for fun, Each draw with chance of winning as the order number are 10-2-7 and 11

Team	Initial	1st Draw	2nd Draw	3rd Draw	Winner
SJS	18.5%​	18.9%​	15.2%​	45.5%​	100.0%​
CHI	13.5%​	13.0%​	21.2%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
ANA	11.5%​	11.2%​	12.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
CBJ	9.5%​	9.8%​	7.6%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
MTL	8.5%​	7.0%​	6.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
UTA	7.5%​	6.7%​	4.5%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
OTT	6.5%​	8.1%​	7.6%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
SEA	6.0%​	6.0%​	9.1%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
CGY	5.0%​	4.2%​	1.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
BUF	3.0%​	2.5%​	3.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
PHI	2.5%​	2.5%​	4.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
MIN	2.0%​	2.8%​	3.0%​	18.2%​	0.0%​
NJD	3.5%​	4.2%​	3.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
PIT	1.5%​	1.4%​	1.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
DET	0.5%​	1.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
STL	0.5%​	0.7%​	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​

Damn, Sens made it to the last round. GG Sharks.

 

[Saskatoon]

I made this for fun, Each draw with chance of winning as the order number are 10-2-7 and 11

Team	Initial	1st Draw	2nd Draw	3rd Draw	Winner
SJS	18.5%​	18.9%​	15.2%​	45.5%​	100.0%​
CHI	13.5%​	13.0%​	21.2%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
ANA	11.5%​	11.2%​	12.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
CBJ	9.5%​	9.8%​	7.6%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
MTL	8.5%​	7.0%​	6.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
UTA	7.5%​	6.7%​	4.5%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
OTT	6.5%​	8.1%​	7.6%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
SEA	6.0%​	6.0%​	9.1%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
CGY	5.0%​	4.2%​	1.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
BUF	3.0%​	2.5%​	3.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
PHI	2.5%​	2.5%​	4.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
MIN	2.0%​	2.8%​	3.0%​	18.2%​	0.0%​
NJD	3.5%​	4.2%​	3.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
PIT	1.5%​	1.4%​	1.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
DET	0.5%​	1.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
STL	0.5%​	0.7%​	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​

Yeesh Chicago was the most likely spot after 2nd draw.

Minnesota with 18% after 3rd draw is interesting

 

[Kingfan1967]

So the list of teams without a 1st OA just got a little smaller.

 

[llamateizer]

So the list of teams without a 1st OA just got a little smaller.

are you referring to the 5 years rule?



"Teams are only allowed to improve their draft positioning through the lottery twice in a five-year period beginning with the 2022 lottery"

2022.
MTL retained 1st overall
NJD improved from 5 to 2

2023
CHI improved from 3 to 1
ANA moved down 1 to 2

2024
SJS retained 1st
CHI retained 2nd



NJD = 1 ( 2 drafts left)
CHI = 1 ( 3 drafts left)

 

[themelkman]

No, the Blackhawks were slotted #2 before the draft and they are picking #2. Picking 1 or 2 only countsd for 2 in 5 year rule if you advance your position.

Neither SJ #1 pick or Chicago #2 pick count against the 2 in 5 years count becuase neither advanced their pre-slotted position.

Pretty useless rule then lol, guess it was just to shut twitter up

 

[ricky0034]

I made this for fun, Each draw with chance of winning as the order number are 10-2-7 and 11

Team	Initial	1st Draw	2nd Draw	3rd Draw	Winner
SJS	18.5%​	18.9%​	15.2%​	45.5%​	100.0%​
CHI	13.5%​	13.0%​	21.2%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
ANA	11.5%​	11.2%​	12.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
CBJ	9.5%​	9.8%​	7.6%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
MTL	8.5%​	7.0%​	6.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
UTA	7.5%​	6.7%​	4.5%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
OTT	6.5%​	8.1%​	7.6%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
SEA	6.0%​	6.0%​	9.1%​	9.1%​	0.0%​
CGY	5.0%​	4.2%​	1.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
BUF	3.0%​	2.5%​	3.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
PHI	2.5%​	2.5%​	4.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
MIN	2.0%​	2.8%​	3.0%​	18.2%​	0.0%​
NJD	3.5%​	4.2%​	3.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
PIT	1.5%​	1.4%​	1.5%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
DET	0.5%​	1.1%​	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
STL	0.5%​	0.7%​	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​

would have been funny to see people arguing that the league rigged the lottery for Minnesota

 

[LordZapp]

Watch the hawks get the 1st again.

 

[coooldude]

are you referring to the 5 years rule?

They were referring to the fact that the sharks have never drafted 1OA before now, so this is one fewer team that has never drafted 1OA.

The list of teams that has never drafted 1OA just got one team smaller.

 

[llamateizer]

They were referring to the fact that the sharks have never drafted 1OA before now, so this is one fewer team that has never drafted 1OA.

The list of teams that has never drafted 1OA just got one team smaller.

Oh, thanks.

It's nullified with the addition of Utah

 

[ES]

No, the Blackhawks were slotted #2 before the draft and they are picking #2. Picking 1 or 2 only countsd for 2 in 5 year rule if you advance your position.

Neither SJ #1 pick or Chicago #2 pick count against the 2 in 5 years count becuase neither advanced their pre-slotted position.

Will it count advancing if someone else (teams between Ducks and Sabres inclusive) had won the first lottery and then Blackhawks had won the 2nd? After all in that case they would have overtaken Sharks.

 

[Voight]

Would've loved to get first back to back years but I guess 2nd aint bad.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Would've loved to get first back to back years but I guess 2nd aint bad.

there is always next year

 

[CallMeShaft]

Will it count advancing if someone else (teams between Ducks and Sabres inclusive) had won the first lottery and then Blackhawks had won the 2nd? After all in that case they would have overtaken Sharks.

No, it wouldn't count.

Hawks had the second overall prior to the draft lottery and stayed there, hence it doesn't count as advancing, even if San Jose had dropped.

 

[ClydeLee]

Pretty useless rule then lol, guess it was just to shut twitter up

Plenty of people here complained the rule was too loose when made. Nobody before would of even been affected by it. Oilers fans made that clear right away. It should be more restrictive to do anything