Player Discussion: Dr CJ Suess... Is it time to take this kid a little more seriously?

[Mortimer Snerd]

It will be harder to move him for the reasons you just mentioned.

I suggested months ago that MP should have been the first to go this off-season. I love his play, his style and his personality. He has been my favourite Jet since we got him. But he faded badly last year as the season progressed. He managed just 1 pt in the playoffs. He has just 1 pt so far this season.

My thinking was - and is - that his style of play has worn him down physically at a relatively young age. His production from the last 50 or so games could be the early warning that he is about done. That means that we probably could have recovered some value, say at the draft, that we will never be able to get again. But also, and more importantly, it might have been our last best chance to dump a contract that he will never again earn. Even if the return would have been minimal, I think we should have done it.

I can't be certain of that, of course, but if we wait until we are certain, it is too late. Many are now saying that he will have to be moved next year for cap reasons. But he may not be easily moveable next off-season, much less get something in return.

I hope he makes me eat crow on this one. I hope he has his best season ever, but he is playing on the 4th line now. He might be pretty valuable, bringing a veteran presence to that young line. But I doubt his contribution will be worth the cost.

 

[garret9]

yet another example of statistics not being able to account for intangibles.

Emotion
Effort
Psychology of sport

Exactly why the stats community need a lot more work on how they present statistics

How is anything I said an example of statistics not being able to account for intangibles?

How do you account for intangibles anyways?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think you are selling Tanev short. He is good at forechecking seems to have good d instincts and his offensive instincts are growing every year.

That's all you got from my post? I must have missed the mark pretty badly then. How I am or am not assessing Tanev is the least important part of what I was trying to get at.

This also goes to your later question about direct and indirect measurement of players contributions. Everything a player does on the ice is eventually reflected in his team's shot attempts. It isn't necessary to collect a player's sweat and measure that to find the results of his efforts. That will tell you something about how hard he worked. It won't tell you how productive his effort was. But if he steals the puck in the O zone or misses a check in the D zone it will show up in the shot attempts, either for or against. Measuring the sweat is a direct measure of effort. Counting steals, checks, FO wins or hits are direct measures. Counting shot attempts is indirect. It is also easier, more objective and more predictive.

The point I was trying to make originally was that all those aspects of a player's contribution, his speed, his compete level, his puck handling, etc, etc, will show up in the shot attempts, for or against, at some point. So the fact that all of those things are not measured and counted individually and directly just doesn't matter. That's the beauty of Corsi. All of those things affect it and therefore are measured by it, indirectly.

Not trying to pick a fight here. Just trying to help.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Suess. CJ Suess. That's the topic of this thread, not Tanev. I get trying to compare the two, but a comparison usually involves discussing both players that are being compared.

kthnxbai!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not sure how that's related. We were talking about who Dr Seuss would replace. How replaceable Copp and Tanev are. Forward lines are another discussion.

Still in the context of Suess. The suggestion was that Dr. could replace Tanev. A possible landing spot. The discussion of whether he should or not would be premature at this point, IMO. As is the discussion of whether Tanev should be at the top of that list, or Copp should. Maybe it is neither. Maybe it is Lemieux, or Perreault.

yet another example of statistics not being able to account for intangibles.

Emotion
Effort
Psychology of sport

Exactly why the stats community need a lot more work on how they present statistics

Emotion, effort, and psychology all affect what a player does on the ice, or does not. What he does affects his team's shot attempts, one way or another, eventually. If all of Tanev's effort and emotion doesn't lead to him having a more positive impact on shot attempts than Suess would have then Suess should replace Tanev.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Still in the context of Suess. The suggestion was that Dr. could replace Tanev. A possible landing spot. The discussion of whether he should or not would be premature at this point, IMO. As is the discussion of whether Tanev should be at the top of that list, or Copp should. Maybe it is neither. Maybe it is Lemieux, or Perreault.



Emotion, effort, and psychology all affect what a player does on the ice, or does not. What he does affects his team's shot attempts, one way or another, eventually. If all of Tanev's effort and emotion doesn't lead to him having a more positive impact on shot attempts than Suess would have then Suess should replace Tanev.

But that's silly to argue when the CLT line has been the best line on the team. Also what if Tanev's play leads to an increase in fan revenues because of his effort and emotion? That plays a role in the bigger picture. Even if Seuss is a good player I'd wait till the line cools down before jumping all over possible replacements.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Suess. CJ Suess. That's the topic of this thread, not Tanev. I get trying to compare the two, but a comparison usually involves discussing both players that are being compared.

kthnxbai!

I was getting to Suess. Saying replacing Tanev when the CLT line is clicking and thinking of even potential replacements seems very premature and jinxing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wheeler did not peak for years. Tanev is a late bloomer. Regarding the rest, guilty as charged. I think certain players are core players at certain price points. If he stays at a mil keep him, if he wants anything more get rid of him. I feel the same way about copp that you can be a core at a certain price point. For instance, if Connor asks for 8mil not worth keeping him. If he is at 6mil great building block.

We are using the word core differently. I agree that price point is an important part of the process of assembling a team.

There can be some difference in when players peak, but not too much. I don't think Tanev is really a late bloomer. He was a little late to the party. Being a late bloomer would imply that he is going to continue improving until later than most and become a top 6 player or something at an unusual age. I think that blooming late usually means a lower peak, not a later peak.

I don't think it is as simple as saying, "if he stays at a mil keep him". We might be able to get a better player for 800k. Do we still keep him? Why? BTW, he is already well over a mil. I will still keep him unless someone else wants him badly enough to pay too much to get him. I thought Chevy overpaid him. Not because he might not be worth that much but because it probably wasn't necessary to pay that much. JMO.

I believe that some lower paid players are worth more than their contracts. At 1.15 Tanev may be one of those. He may still be one after his next raise. I think Copp is one of those, as was Armia. Those aren't the players I would look to move.

Even the cap argument may be weak. The replacement cost has to be included in the equation. Take Tanev at 1.15 and Suess at 792.5k. Is saving the difference of 375.5k in cap worth the difference in the players? If we need to save ~4 mil in cap space we would need to make that kind of move 10 times. The saving is really a drop in the bucket. You choose between those 2 contracts based on which player will have the greater effect on winning, not on the cost. Now if Tanev demands 2 mil, the equation is a little different.

For cap savings, I would look for players whose contribution doesn't justify their cap hit. Myers is one of those. Kulikov is another. Perreault might be, if his production doesn't pick up. Those 3 all have contracts large enough to make a difference.

 

[garret9]

But that's silly to argue when the CLT line has been the best line on the team. Also what if Tanev's play leads to an increase in fan revenues because of his effort and emotion? That plays a role in the bigger picture. Even if Seuss is a good player I'd wait till the line cools down before jumping all over possible replacements.

They have been good, very good, but is that because he's typically driving or riding the bus?

Looks like Seuss could do well on that line in replacement to Tanev provided he's equally good to the average non-Tanev players that have played on that line (which is also as good as when Tanev has played on that line).

 

[Adam da bomb]

They have been good, very good, but is that because he's typically driving or riding the bus?

Looks like Seuss could do well on that line in replacement to Tanev provided he's equally good to the average non-Tanev players that have played on that line (which is also as good as when Tanev has played on that line).

But as Mortimer said how much are you saving by replacing Tanev instead of keeping that line the way it is right now. Is Seuss going to play for a quarter of the money. It would have to be big savings to tinker with something that works instead of leaving it as is. It's not like changing Laine and Connor where the difference could be huge.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But that's silly to argue when the CLT line has been the best line on the team. Also what if Tanev's play leads to an increase in fan revenues because of his effort and emotion? That plays a role in the bigger picture. Even if Seuss is a good player I'd wait till the line cools down before jumping all over possible replacements.

It was just brought up as a possibility - at some unspecified point in the future. Don't get you knickers in a knot.

Someone else said it could happen - sometime. I agreed it was possible. I didn't say I preferred it, or that it would be my first choice. Only that, if Suess continues to play well and forces the powers that be to look for a place for him, that could be on the list. Nobody is promoting the idea. Nobody is even discussing it if you aren't being so defensive. Nobody, but noooobody even hinted that it should be done in the immediate future.

 

[sting13]

What does the DR stand for? I know he use to go by CJ Franklin.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

What does the DR stand for? I know he use to go by CJ Franklin.

Dr == Doctor. Dr Suess.

 

[garret9]

But as Mortimer said how much are you saving by replacing Tanev instead of keeping that line the way it is right now. Is Seuss going to play for a quarter of the money. It would have to be big savings to tinker with something that works instead of leaving it as is. It's not like changing Laine and Connor where the difference could be huge.

I'm not talking about Tanev today. I'm talking about Tanev with his next raise he's earned.

Every bit counts. It's asset managment and cap is an asset.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm not talking about Tanev today. I'm talking about Tanev with his next raise he's earned.

Every bit counts. It's asset managment and cap is an asset.

Yep that may be the case.

 

[Cellee]

_______________________________________________________

I think Tanev is way underrated on these boards, he's 2nd or 3rd right now in Jet's scoring, and it would not surprise me to see him score around 45 or more points this year. He's also the hardest working player on the ice most of the time.

The guy that would get replaced first is Copp, as in my mind, he's just an average grinder with not much scoring ability. He'd be the next to be replaced. It won't be Tanev--he's to good and improving all the time, and is also a great playoff performer.

He is way underrated.

I love that kid

 

[sting13]

Dr == Doctor. Dr Suess.

His name is not pronounced the same way.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

His name is not pronounced the same way.

I made no such representation that it was - I was simply responding to someone who was asking why the "DR" prefix was added to the thread title. I assumed that it was light-hearted banter / a joke, myself.

 

[Ducky10]

His name is not pronounced the same way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

His name is not pronounced the same way.

It isn't spelled the same way either, but since when do we need to be technically correct when attaching nicknames?

 

[voyageur]

He has to be our oldest rookie, at 24. He fits in the Tanev and Copp mold. Which is good because the Jets don't have to carry a Hendricks or Matthias this year for replacement level. Could see Veselainen-Suess-Roslovic being a good line down the road.