Does McDavid reach 2000 points?

[Cenzhin]

By the end of his career, do you think McDavid becomes the second player in NHL history to reach 2000 points? He hasn't missed too many games due to injury yet, but missed about a full seasons worth of games between the injury in his rookie year and the two COVID seasons. It took him just over 7 years to reach 700 points.

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[ricky0034]

any answer at this point would just be guessing

he will if he stays healthy which hasn't been an issue so far but he's also 25 and who knows what happens with that as he ages

 

[Dust]

It's crazy to think it's not out of the realm of possibility. At the same time, he'd have to play at a 100 point pace for roughly the next 12 seasons. I guess if he can put up a few 130 point seasons here that can balance it out a bit on the back half of his career. Crosby is still playing at that 100 point level at 35 so that gives you hope it could possibly happen.

 

[Mulletman]

Easily! Only 1285 points to go and he's only 25 years old. McDavid still has 34 games to play before he turns 26. That's 49 points with his career point per game for 764 career points on the day he turns 26. That would mean McDavid needs 1236 more points to hit 2000. Compare that to someone like Selanne who scored 1115 career points after turning 26, while missing exactly 250 regular season games until he retired. So McDavid will need to score just 121 more career points than Selanne after turning 26 in order to get the job done. Keep in mind that Selanne only had 2 100 point seasons after 26 and 2 more 90 points seasons. McDavid is hitting 90+ points basically every year... Like I said, Easily!

 

[bobholly39]

Crosby and McDavid are always great comparables. Similar era, 18 yr old prodigies, and so much of their careers (regular season especially) to date mirrors one another.

McDavid is 26 this year. Let's ignore this season, since it just started. At the end of his age 25 season - he had 697 points. At the end of Crosby's age 25 season - he had 665 points, 32 points behind. If you go by points per 82 game average, it's ~117 to ~116 for McDavid (in a mostly higher scoring league). So - neck and neck.

I bring Crosby up because Crosby:

- was relatively healthy ages 26 and above, playing in over 90% of his team's games
- Crosby aged better than almost any player in history (he may not be scoring at his peak levels anymore, but he hasn't dipped below a certain level, ever, whereas most players decline/have off-years - most consecutive ppg+ seasons in history)

Very few people believe Crosby has a chance at 2000 points today. McDavid is only 32 points ahead. Will McDavid:

- Be as healthy/healthier than Crosby in next 10 years? 90%+ of teams games. Hopefully yes - but good chance no as it's a high bar.
- Age as well as Crosby? It's possible of course - but it's an extremely high bar, with Crosby ageing better than most anyone in history

The one advantage for McDavid is that league scoring is currently up. But of course that fluctuates a lot over a 10 year period. If he can wrack up a lot of points in the next 2-3 years, maybe he can distance Crosby some more.

I still think it's more unlikely than it is likely - so I voted no.

 

[Machinehead]

He will unless scoring slows down again.

At this rate, he's going to be putting up 120+ every year.

We could very well see scoring go back down, though. The recent boom came out of nowhere.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

people need to understand that in Crosby's prime 100 points was only for the truly elite. now everybody n their grandma scores it. from 26- 29 Crosby was also in a dead puck era.

 

[norrisnick]

Crosby and McDavid are always great comparables. Similar era, 18 yr old prodigies, and so much of their careers (regular season especially) to date mirrors one another.

McDavid is 26 this year. Let's ignore this season, since it just started. At the end of his age 25 season - he had 697 points. At the end of Crosby's age 25 season - he had 665 points, 32 points behind. If you go by points per 82 game average, it's ~117 to ~116 for McDavid (in a mostly higher scoring league). So - neck and neck.

I bring Crosby up because Crosby:

- was relatively healthy ages 26 and above, playing in over 90% of his team's games
- Crosby aged better than almost any player in history (he may not be scoring at his peak levels anymore, but he hasn't dipped below a certain level, ever, whereas most players decline/have off-years - most consecutive ppg+ seasons in history)

Very few people believe Crosby has a chance at 2000 points today. McDavid is only 32 points ahead. Will McDavid:

- Be as healthy/healthier than Crosby in next 10 years? 90%+ of teams games. Hopefully yes - but good chance no as it's a high bar.
- Age as well as Crosby? It's possible of course - but it's an extremely high bar, with Crosby ageing better than most anyone in history

The one advantage for McDavid is that league scoring is currently up. But of course that fluctuates a lot over a 10 year period. If he can wrack up a lot of points in the next 2-3 years, maybe he can distance Crosby some more.

I still think it's more unlikely than it is likely - so I voted no.

There's a bit of fudging things around going on, namely that McDavid is still 25. Sid and Connor's birthdays are offset by less than half a year with Crosby's being just before the season starts and McDavid's at the mid-point of the season. Both were 18 when they started their NHL careers and after their first 7 seasons Connor had 697pts and Sidney 609. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the gap after year 8 is 150 points (if Connor hits 118pts).

 

[dirtydanglez]

people need to understand that in Crosby's prime 100 points was only for the truly elite. now everybody n their grandma scores it. from 26- 29 Crosby was also in a dead puck era.

nah. crosby never played in the dead puck era. the rules changed to open up the game with the introduction of the salary cap.

he came in at the perfect time.

 

[Video Nasty]

All depends on health of course.

McDavid is tracking to notch over 1100 points by the end of his age 29 season.

I gave him 70 more games out of 73 this year and 105 more points.

That’s 1.5 PPG- he’s been scoring over this since the start of the first half of the 2017-2018 season so I’m purposefully lowballing him). He could be sitting at 820 points by seasons end.

I again underestimated for his age 27, 28, and 29 seasons. I gave him 75 games each season and 1.4 PPG for 105 points each season. I don’t really believe he’ll score that little because I think he’ll be winning Art Rosses if healthy until he’s at least 30.

But I like doing the opposite of what I’ve seen members of the cult of the Penguin do: if I’m going to project, do it harshly and not always in the best case scenario.

Using these numbers, McDavid could have 1135 points before he enters his age 30 season. With those numbers, he’ll have done so in 791 games, the 4th quickest ever (Gretzky 464 games, Lemieux 550 games, and Bossy 725 games).

If he has over 1100 points before turning 30, I like his chances at 2000 career points if he has reasonably good health and continues playing in a league that encourages scoring.

 

[Holymakinaw]

By the end of his career, do you think McDavid becomes the second player in NHL history to reach 2000 points? He hasn't missed too many games due to injury yet, but missed about a full seasons worth of games between the injury in his rookie year and the two COVID seasons. It took him just over 7 years to reach 700 points.

Sure, why not? If anyone can, its McDavid.

 

[authentic]

nah. crosby never played in the dead puck era. the rules changed to open up the game with the introduction of the salary cap.

he came in at the perfect time.

If you totally ignore scoring levels and the state of the game at the time then sure. 2005-08 was a lot different than 2009-16. 2017-22 has been an upward trend in scoring back towards the middle to late 2000s if not higher. 2009-16 were dead puck era levels of scoring if not worse because the best players didn’t play as much of the game, almost all of the forwards were under 20 minutes.

 

[HotPie]

Yes with the caveat that he doesn't miss too many games due to injury.

 

[Garbageyuk]

No. He relies too much on his athleticism and speed for his production. That will wane soon. He will still be a good player, but probably not among the handful of best in the world in his later years.

 

[Dust]

No. He relies too much on his athleticism and speed for his production. That will wane soon. He will still be a good player, but probably not among the handful of best in the world in his later years.

Barring major injury, most great skaters remain that way for the entirety of their careers.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Barring major injury, most great skaters remain that way for the entirety of their careers.

He’s going to slow down and become less explosive, and he will lose that extra gear that gives him such a huge advantage. That’s a certainty. It doesn’t matter that he’ll always be a technically great skater. He won’t keep the athleticism of his younger years; nobody does.

 

[Albatros]

Mike Gartner was still in his late 30s as fast as McDavid is now.

 

[KevinRedkey]

people need to understand that in Crosby's prime 100 points was only for the truly elite. now everybody n their grandma scores it. from 26- 29 Crosby was also in a dead puck era.

What does this have to do with a thread about McDavid scoring 2000 points?

 

[DrDangles]

Outside of the impossible to predict health factor, I think this really depends on how long he can maintain the speed that truly sets him apart from the field. He doesn't take the same abuse his predecessors have, and I think the league will only get softer as we continue from here on out. If he can avoid major injuries, I think he will do it.

 

[Draiskull]

McDavid will keep up with Crosby so if Crosby gets to 2000 then McDavid is as well

 

[Connor McConnor]

people need to understand that in Crosby's prime 100 points was only for the truly elite. now everybody n their grandma scores it. from 26- 29 Crosby was also in a dead puck era.

 

[Super Hans]

Not even close. He's hockey's Barry Sanders and the Oilers are hockey's Detroit Lions.

 

[Fourier]

people need to understand that in Crosby's prime 100 points was only for the truly elite. now everybody n their grandma scores it. from 26- 29 Crosby was also in a dead puck era.

In the first 7 years of Crosby's career 15 different players had at least 100 points. In the first 7 years of McDavid's career 11 players had 100 points in a season.

 

[Hockeyholic]

He may hit 1000 points by age 28. That is about 27 months away.

Pending great health, he has a nice chance of reaching 2,000 points by age 39 or so.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Let’s break this down another way. Through 7 seasons, he’s at just over 700 points. If his next 7 are just as productive, which is optimistic to say the least, he’ll be sitting at just under 1450. He would basically need to hit 100 every single year after that to close out his career to make it to 2000. All of this also depends on him staying healthy. It is very unlikely to happen this way. I don’t think he makes it. He probably finishes with 1700-1800 in the best case scenario. Even that, I don’t know if I would bet on.