Do faceoffs matter?

[Bounces R Way]

Have seen a lot of debate between hockey people on this subject. Many analytics types don't think they contribute much to overall success, while the old school has always placed a lot of importance on winning faceoffs.

I'm somewhere in the middle where I think some matter but not as much as they're portrayed. On special teams certainly winning a faceoff can mean the difference between a successful PK/PP, but a NZ 5v5 FO isn't real important IMO.

Was curious to see where HF stood on the debate.

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[Connor McConnor]

They can be deciding factors on the PP and PK so that alone makes them important. With that said, no you don’t need an elite face off specialist to be a good team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The worse thing about faceoffs is that they can be easily measured.

The impact of things that are easily measured is almost always overstated.

For instance, missed defensive assignments and defensive errors are way more impactful to the outcome of games, but that's not an easy thing to measure so it gets overlooked. If it were easily measured, it would be one of the most commonly cited stats out there.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

FO% itself has no positive or negative correlation in terms of how well a team performs. Outside of highly specialized situations such as Empty netters I think it's largely irrelevant. The players move to fast and possession of the puck switches between both teams to much for it too matter in most cases anyway

 

[wetcoast]

The worse thing about faceoffs is that they can be easily measured.

The impact of things that are easily measured is almost always overstated.

For instance, missed defensive assignments and defensive errors are way more impactful to the outcome of games, but that's not an easy thing to measure so it gets overlooked. If it were easily measured, it would be one of the most commonly cited stats out there.

This is a good response but I came here to say that they matter sometimes when they do then other times they don't.

All things being equal having possession in key moments does matter even if its only 6 out of 10 times because it's better than 4 out of 10 times.

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

They can be deciding factors on the PP and PK so that alone makes them important. With that said, no you don’t need an elite face off specialist to be a good team.

For me ya gotta have that pp1 guy good enough to win draws and most certainly need the same for the pk. For 5 on 5 I don’t care if your centre is suddenly legally blind when in a faceoff stance. Someone on the line can hack out like 45%.

 

[jcs0218]

They matter a lot.

I have seen many, many teams lose a defensive zone faceoff. Then get trapped in their own end on a penalty kill or while the other team has their goaltender pulled. And then it leads to a goal for the other team.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Special teams faceoffs do, not so much at 5v5.

 

[Panthaz89]

Faceoffs are pretty much the last thing I look at when evaluating a player....

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

This is a good response but I came here to say that they matter sometimes when they do then other times they don't.

All things being equal having possession in key moments does matter even if its only 6 out of 10 times because it's better than 4 out of 10 times.

Sure they matter, if you can win 75% of faceoffs.
That's happened in individual games 15 times in since 2005, and the teams doing so are 12-0-3 in those 15 games.

But in games where you win 60.8-61.0%?
Teams are 33-28 in regulation then.

 

[wetcoast]

Sure they matter, if you can win 75% of faceoffs.
That's happened in individual games 15 times in since 2005, and the teams doing so are 12-0-3 in those 15 games.

But in games where you win 60.8-61.0%?
Teams are 33-28 in regulation then.

Well I did say that your last post was a good one the last comparison doesn't really say much either way though and there are many facets to a game and I wonder what the record is for 42% and less and even there a great goalie performance can skew things up.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well I did say that your last post was a good one the last comparison doesn't really say much either way though and there are many facets to a game and I wonder what the record is for 42% and less and even there a great goalie performance can skew things up.

I think they definitely matter in individual games if you get on in the long tail. But player faceoff performance is measured in aggregate, and in aggregate team faceoff % has no relationship with success.

 

[wetcoast]

I think they definitely matter in individual games if you get on in the long tail. But player faceoff performance is measured in aggregate, and in aggregate team faceoff % has no relationship with success.

Fair enough and while I do think they can get over rated at times some people severely under rate them as well if you know what I mean.

Just from a practical standpoint when I played I'd rather have possession than the other team probably 95% of the time at least and I think most players would agree with this as well.

Goal events are very rare in hockey compared to SOG, face-offs and hits but the last 3 things matter quite a bit as well.

Put another way, does anyone thing Bergeron would be the elite Selke guy he is if he was a low 40% faceoff guy?

I mean I guess he could be but I doubt it.

 

[heretik27]

To paraphrase something I think Garret Hohl posted on the Jets forums a while back I believe he said the statistical importance between the difference of a team good at faceoffs vs bad was only a goal or two over the season. I don't remember the specifics, but the gist of it was that it was not of significant importance statistically.

I found an article he wrote on it here:

By The Numbers: Jets’ league worst face off percentage is a problem, but a small one

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jetsnation.ca

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

5 on 5 not too much. They are huge on the PP though.

 

[biturbo19]

Like others have said...they're a pretty huge component of good Special Teams play. Even just key moments, a defensive zone faceoff win at 5v5 can be absolutely huge. A random neutral zone faceoff at even strength in the middle of a game? Not so important.

But i think that imbalance of when a faceoff is or isn't as important, is something that the mathletes don't tend to account for appropriately when they discredit the value of faceoff wins. It needs to be a "weighted" stat somehow. Though it would ultimately come down a little bit to just...subjective categorization of "important faceoff" or not, and the analytics guys hate subjectivity with all the passion they lack for the "old school" elements of the game.

 

[Hisch13r]

Specials and late games matter. The vast majority have a minimal impact.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Like most things, it's hard to take them completely out of context and measure their value. If you truly wanted to analyze the importance of faceoffs you'd likely want to break them down by their position on the ice and the situation.
Winning a defensive zone faceoffs in a late game PK of a tie game can be huge. Losing 10/10 neutral zone faceoffs might not matter at all.

At the end of the day they are important but context is key.

 

[isles55]

A face off has value, a player being good at faceoffs has little value. And they’re talked about to death when they aren’t that important.

 

[MartinS82]

Face offs are huge. Straight percentages aren't all that important, but in a close game being able to execute a face off play to create a scoring chance or break the puck out of your own end can't be overstated.

 

[DuklaNation]

So, more possession time doesn't matter? Losing a draw in your own zone on the PK matters a lot.

 

[oXo Cube]

The issue with FO% isn't that they don't matter, it's that even the absolute worst teams in the league at this statistic still win 4.5/10 faceoffs. That differential needs sample sizes of entire seasons to adjust goal differential by a number higher than 1.

Additionally, the obviously higher impact faceoffs(special teams, empty net situations) are always taken by a 'specialist' who in general is more likely to win the faceoff than the team average, even on bad faceoff teams.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

The issue with FO% isn't that they don't matter, it's that even the absolute worst teams in the league at this statistic still win 4.5/10 faceoffs. That differential needs sample sizes of entire seasons to adjust goal differential by a number higher than 1.

Additionally, the obviously higher impact faceoffs(special teams, empty net situations) are always taken by a 'specialist' who in general is more likely to win the faceoff than the team average, even on bad faceoff teams.

This. Faceoffs matter in theory, but in reality the win range is really, what, 45%-55%, and a lot of those wins and losses aren’t at all clean. No one is that bad or that good to make it a defining feature to their game, you need the other skills first. Faceoff talent just adds or loses a bit of value.

Some examples: Paul Gaustad got a lot more interest than I thought he deserved because he was a 3/4C who could win draws. The other skills were still barely there, and the faceoff was like an add-on feature.

Cody Eakin- Did not deserve to play in the nhl last year, but he wins draws, so there was even trade chatter at the deadline. But it’s all he does, so no one is that dumb now, because even if he wins the draw- he’s gotta get the f*** off the ice or they’re playing with 4.75 nhlers, and that ain’t worth an occasional draw win.

There was an absolute beaut last year if I remember correctly- Eakin won the OT draw forwards as planned, but was immediately stripped of the puck. Other team scored. Like- it perfectly showed why faceoffs only matter once the other talents are there- because the moment it switched to regular play Eakin just did not think on that level. Man, if anyone has that vid it’s fantastic.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

They matter but as someone above mentioned, they can be random and don't vary much between teams over the long haul.

It only becomes a problem if you have a real liability who just can't flat out win a draw and gets beat cleanly or even make it 50/50 puck, which isn't that common. But the Rangers tend to have this problem as their centers and skill players are pretty terrible on draws. They will lose a faceoff badly/cleanly while in the Ozone on a PP and that bleeds 30-40 seconds off and makes them have to gain entry and try to setup again.

And if you lose one badly in the dzone, it can cause a good scoring chance against and put a lot of stress on your D/goalie.

 

[Love]

Of course they matter. But their importance is overstated because they have traditionally been used as something to measure if a player is good defensively or not.

But you can’t tell me that theyre not important at all. Take your teams 1 PP unit. Imagine if the centre was 60% on the dot. Now imagine he’s 40% on the dot. It’s really hard to argue that it doesn’t make a difference in specials teams scenarios.