News Article: Did Buffalo kill its chances of winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes?

[Jim Bob]

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/d...he-connor-mccavid-sweepstakes-does-it-matter/

I'm going to go out on a limb and say no.

Click to read more...

 

[haseoke39]

We'll just have to wait and see.

If we're in 26th place at Xmas, Murray will probably have the most important test of his tenure to rise to.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think Kay forgot about the players the Sabres lost and just how bad this team was last season.

They were 14 pts out of 29th.

Their goal differential was 19 goals worse than 29th.

Their goals for were 39 less than 29th.

And they lost their former Vezina winning goalie....

 

[TehDoak]

Yawn.

No matter how bad of a team we ice, we had a whopping 20% chance of getting 1st overall.

We still could easily finish last overall. Realistically, here are the changes we've made:


Ott -> Gionta
Ehrhoff-> Gorges
Miller -> Neuverith

+Mezaros
-Leino

I prefer Gio over Ott, and removing Leino is addition by subtraction.

Mezaros? Time will tell on that.

We're marginally better than last year depending on who you ask. Our improvements will be coming from our young players developing and playing better, not from the off season "changes" that were made.

 

[Paxon]

It's amazing how many people act like Buffalo loaded up in free agency. Yes, Buffalo improved a lot on July 1st over the roster from June 30th, but not over the pre-deadline team. We'll now have the scoring depth of Chris Stewart in addition to what we had last year, for example, but we're still missing Ryan Miller and we're still a damn bad team.

No team is worse on paper. Calgary is bad but not as bad. Florida and Edmonton made some strong additions. Everyone paced our actual roster improvements, if you can even say we made a net roster improvement (debatable).

 

[stokes84]

I think Kay forgot about the players the Sabres lost and just how bad this team was last season.

They were 14 pts out of 29th.

Their goal differential was 19 goals worse than 29th.

Their goals for were 39 less than 29th.

And they lost their former Vezina winning goalie....

Moulson-Ennis-Stafford
Hodgson-Girgensons- Gionta
Foligno-Reinhart-Stewart
Deslauries-McCormick-Kaleta

Larsson, Flynn, Mitchell

Gorges-Myers
Mez-Risto
Weber-Pysyk
Ruhwedel, McCabe, Zadorov

Enroth, Neuvirth

At no point did they ice a line up this competitive last year. They didn't kill their chances, but they are not nearly as bad as they were.

 

[Rastin]

Don't get me wrong, I liked the moves we've made this offseason but I seriously doubt we've improved over last year through them. I think people are confusing # of moves with actual improvement. Yes, we made a number of moves but most were to stay level. Some were small improvements, some were small downgrades.

There are only two ways I can see us being significantly better than last year. 1) Most of our young guys take HUGE steps forward this year or 2) Enroth or Neuvirth go nuts on the NHL and have a Vezina caliber season.

 

[old kummelweck]

But for every Sidney Crosby worst-to-first scenario (oh wait, there’s just one Crosby), there are examples of clubs who have been perennial bottom-dwellers (Edmonton, Florida) and didn’t reap the benefits or are still waiting to do so. Tanking, or being bad to be good, is not a guarantee of future success.

Exactly.

 

[slip]

The roster additions have not elevated us beyond bottom feeder status. Now, a couple of rookies firing on all cylinders could tip the scales from us being plain "awful" to just "bad" and thus bump us out of the top 5.

 

[ZZamboni]

The roster additions have not elevated us beyond bottom feeder status. Now, a couple of rookies firing on all cylinders could tip the scales from us being plain "awful" to just "bad" and thus bump us out of the top 5.

True. And yet, the Sabres would still technically be in the McDavid sweepstakes. Will the Sabres slip out of the bottom 10? I doubt it. So no, the chances are slim the Sabres will play themselves out of a chance at McDavid.

 

[Ruckus007]

We'll just have to wait and see.

If we're in 26th place at Xmas, Murray will probably have the most important test of his tenure to rise to.

That's being pretty dramatic, don't you think? On Christmas day there will still be 47 of 82 games to be played.

 

[haseoke39]

That's being pretty dramatic, don't you think? On Christmas day there will still be 47 of 82 games to be played.

Is the date the dramatic part for you? I don't think it's dramatic at all. The farther along you go in the season, the harder it is to influence the standings. 26th place in March is maybe a 15-20 point gap with 30th. You're not making it up. I also think we pretty much need to hold 30th from fairly early on this season just because we won't be selling very much at the deadline, and more teams than ever, if they're out of the playoffs, will have an incentive to sell heavily.

No, I think Christmas is just early enough to act and still do something. Wait too much longer, and you're probably not getting there.

That said, I still think 30th is our most likely position.

 

[Paxon]

That's being pretty dramatic, don't you think? On Christmas day there will still be 47 of 82 games to be played.

It's impossible to be overly dramatic about Christ's birthday

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

We're marginally better than last year depending on who you ask. Our improvements will be coming from our young players developing and playing better, not from the off season "changes" that were made.

I also think a full year of Nolan, after already having gone through the "getting to know you" portion of his tenure, could result in some positive results.

The absence on RonRol, and a full year of Nolan should be taken into account when comparing last year this upcoming season.

 

[TehDoak]

I also think a full year of Nolan, after already having gone through the "getting to know you" portion of his tenure, could result in some positive results.

The absence on RonRol, and a full year of Nolan should be taken into account when comparing last year this upcoming season.

Right, but even if they improve by 50 goals for (an amazing improvement) and maintain the same GAA (sans Miller, it likely will go up a bump)....they'll still at something like a -40 goal differential.

 

[Ruckus007]

Is the date the dramatic part for you? I don't think it's dramatic at all. The farther along you go in the season, the harder it is to influence the standings. 26th place in March is maybe a 15-20 point gap with 30th. You're not making it up. I also think we pretty much need to hold 30th from fairly early on this season just because we won't be selling very much at the deadline, and more teams than ever, if they're out of the playoffs, will have an incentive to sell heavily.

No, I think Christmas is just early enough to act and still do something. Wait too much longer, and you're probably not getting there.

That said, I still think 30th is our most likely position.

The date, the point gap at (last year it was 11 points, Calgary) and the idea that whatever that combination is would be Murray's most important test to date. Florida, for instance, was in 27th (10 points back), won the lottery and there isn't as much of a reward for 30th. I don't believe missing out on McDavid or Eichel is going to derail this process so I'm not going to spend the winter freaking out over the standings.

 

[haseoke39]

The date, the point gap at (last year it was 11 points, Calgary) and the idea that whatever that combination is would be Murray's most important test to date. Florida, for instance, was in 27th (10 points back), won the lottery and there isn't as much of a reward for 30th. I don't believe missing out on McDavid or Eichel is going to derail this process so I'm not going to spend the winter freaking out over the standings.

If you consider it v "this process" meaning everything else on the team, then no, Jack Eichel is not more important than every other player put together. But a top line center is the single most important piece he's going to add. He's not going to find that guy via trade.

If he doesn't make the Gionta pickup, or if he doesn't pick up Carrier, I'm not substantially rethinking our odds. If we don't get a franchise C out of the draft, yeah, I'm substantially rethinking our odds, so it's pretty much the single most important piece he's responsible for.

 

[Clock]

Yawn.

No matter how bad of a team we ice, we had a whopping 20% chance of getting 1st overall.

We still could easily finish last overall. Realistically, here are the changes we've made:


Ott -> Gionta
Ehrhoff-> Gorges
Miller -> Neuverith

+Mezaros
-Leino

I prefer Gio over Ott, and removing Leino is addition by subtraction.

Mezaros? Time will tell on that.

We're marginally better than last year depending on who you ask. Our improvements will be coming from our young players developing and playing better, not from the off season "changes" that were made.

That's about it.

Shamelessly bottoming out further than the Sabres already have to ensure last place only for a low chance at #1 is silly.

There's going to be a lot of bellyaching at every win this year.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I don't think the off-season moves do much of anything to change Buffalo's draft lottery odds. Last season's gap from 30th to 29th leaves a lot of wiggle room, and the lottery will still be the biggest factor anyway. I'll be MUCH more concerned with the lottery than Buffalo's spot in the standings at various points of the season.

At least this season, due to both FA vets and prospects, will be a lot more interesting to watch than last season's train wreck...on the ice anyway. Off the ice might be a little more quiet.

 

[haseoke39]

That's about it.

Shamelessly bottoming out further than the Sabres already have to ensure last place only for a low chance at #1 is silly.

I don't know if you missed the memo on Jack Eichel.

 

[haseoke39]

I'm just assuming we lose the lottery and want Eichel. 4 of 9 scouts had him ahead of McDavid in the last head-to-head poll. Obviously a lot of hockey to be played, but 30th place matters this year regardless of the lottery.

 

[Ruckus007]

If you consider it v "this process" meaning everything else on the team, then no, Jack Eichel is not more important than every other player put together. But a top line center is the single most important piece he's going to add. He's not going to find that guy via trade.

If he doesn't make the Gionta pickup, or if he doesn't pick up Carrier, I'm not substantially rethinking our odds. If we don't get a franchise C out of the draft, yeah, I'm substantially rethinking our odds, so it's pretty much the single most important piece he's responsible for.

Eh, I'm not convinced the latter is true and even if it is, there are other routes to getting that player that I haven't foresworn, yet.

 

[Zman5778]

We're going to be more competitive game in and game out. We're probably going to win a few more games than we did last year.

But last year we were HISTORICALLY bad. Which means a stepwise improvement still means that we're still in contention for 30th.

 

[paulmm3]

We were the worst team by a huge amount last year. We may have improved slightly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say no to this article's question. Still think we finish 30th.

 

[Chad Thundercock]

It's not the free agent signings that will likely make a difference, it's having a young roster that is eventually going to improve. Really, other than Moulson, I don't think any of them make a significant difference.