Post-Game Talk: Devils beat Lightning 5-3!

[Zippy316]

The problem with Smith as I see it, is he is small and slow. Sitting him for a game is not going to fix that.

Shelter him like we did Butcher and he probably puts up really good #'s. And unlike then we have a top line, and a fwd group for that matter, which can handle a boatload of difficult minutes.

Is he making mental errors which go beyond small and slow? Could a game off help clear his mind? I guess, but the root issue here is the physical limitations.

It would also help Smith if we had a more defensive RD to pair him with. As of now, he’s with Severson and Subban who have the occasional mistake or turnover that expose Smith or Hamilton who pulls himself out of position a lot trying to read plays. That’s not a negative of Hamilton as he’s very effective at that, but when it backfires, Smith isn’t the guy that settles things down.

Ideally the Devils should look to see if they can swap Severson or Subban for a more defensive option this year. Obviously Subban would be expiring deal for expiring deal. Severson would be a longer-term fix.

 

[Buck Dancer]

I just don't see that happening.

If that’s the case, I just hope we won’t panic and offer Severson a long term deal.

 

[devilsblood]

Dawson Mercer did not have a really good d+1 year. He had the D+1 year that would be expected out of a player drafted 18th overall. Byfield, Perfetti, and Jarvis all had excellent AHL results for D+1 players. The only basis for him going top 3 in a redraft are these NHL games which have been excellent, but I'm not sure I would bet against a lot of these other guys who've had slower starts.

Are we going to parse the definition of really good? A goal heavy 1.5 pts/g in the reg season, and 2 pts/g in the playoffs? Would you at least acknowledge that is pretty good?

 

[Triumph]

The problem with Smith as I see it, is he is small and slow. Sitting him for a game is not going to fix that.

Shelter him like we did Butcher and he probably puts up really good #'s. And unlike then we have a top pair, and a fwd group for that matter, which can handle a boatload of difficult minutes.

Is he making mental errors which go beyond small and slow? Could a game off help clear his mind? I guess, but the root issue here is the physical limitations.

Smith is coming off an injury. You way overrate the idea of sheltering and how much it can do for a player - he is getting destroyed out there and it does not matter who he is playing against given his level of play, the notion that the Devils can just find a place for him to succeed right now in the NHL is ridiculous. And yes, he's making mental errors, and he can't afford to, because of the limitations in his game besides. But also he's slower this year than he was last year.

 

[Bleedred]

At this stage in his career, Subban is likely to go cup chasing, as he should. I see him bouncing around competitive teams for the next 2-3 years on cheap deals as he’s already made his money.

I think so too. And I do think there will be some good teams willing to sign him to a one year deal (maybe two) this off-season, just because he’s PK Subban and that’s a pretty big name, even if it’s not much of a relevant one anymore.

 

[devilsblood]

Smith is coming off an injury. You way overrate the idea of sheltering and how much it can do for a player - he is getting destroyed out there and it does not matter who he is playing against given his level of play, the notion that the Devils can just find a place for him to succeed right now in the NHL is ridiculous. And yes, he's making mental errors, and he can't afford to, because of the limitations in his game besides. But also he's slower this year than he was last year.

We saw Butcher put up fantastic #'s to the point where people here thought he was worthy of 1st pair minutes, in a sheltered role.

 

[Triumph]

Are we going to parse the definition of really good? A goal heavy 1.5 pts/g in the reg season, and 2 pts/g in the playoffs? Would you at least acknowledge that is pretty good?

No, I won't, because it isn't, and it's only 'really good' to someone who follows the Devils only, who haven't had a prospect do that in a D+1 CHL season since Scott Gomez. It's a progression, that's what's expected, something to get excited about, sure, but it's not a remarkable season for a 1st round draft pick.

 

[devilsblood]

It would also help Smith if we had a more defensive RD to pair him with. As of now, he’s with Severson and Subban who have the occasional mistake or turnover that expose Smith or Hamilton who pulls himself out of position a lot trying to read plays. That’s not a negative of Hamilton as he’s very effective at that, but when it backfires, Smith isn’t the guy that settles things down.

Ideally the Devils should look to see if they can swap Severson or Subban for a more defensive option this year. Obviously Subban would be expiring deal for expiring deal. Severson would be a longer-term fix.

Ya, and Graves is going to be the template now, but a righty Graves would be nice. Or a righty Sieg's on the 3rd pair.

 

[Triumph]

We saw Butcher put up fantastic #'s to the point where people here thought he was worthy of 1st pair minutes, in a sheltered role.

He was paired with a perfect partner for his game and he played well. Smith will not find such a partner, nor is he playing close to the level that Butcher played at in his rookie year, where he was among the best players in the league in successful zone exit passes. To play NHL-worthy defense as a small and slow player, you have to be near-perfect with the puck, and Smith is not doing that, so sheltering him will help, but it will not make him look good, because he's not good right now.

 

[Zippy316]

Ya, and Graves is going to be the template now, but a righty Graves would be nice. Or a righty Sieg's on the 3rd pair.

I was wondering if we would ever see Siegenthaler - Smith. But that leaves two righties together and neither Subban or Severson have looked good on the right side.

 

[devilsblood]

No, I won't, because it isn't, and it's only 'really good' to someone who follows the Devils only, who haven't had a prospect do that in a D+1 CHL season since Scott Gomez. It's a progression, that's what's expected, something to get excited about, sure, but it's not a remarkable season for a 1st round draft pick.

If I said remarkable I'd see your point.

I'll again lay out my full argument from above.

1)Mercer fell to 18
2)Mercer had a really good D+1
3)Mercer's play in preseason warranted him playing in the NHL.
4)The 16 game sample.

So it's more then just the 16 game sample. It's part of it for sure, no reason at all to ignore it, but it's more then that.

 

[devilsblood]

He was paired with a perfect partner for his game and he played well. Smith will not find such a partner, nor is he playing close to the level that Butcher played at in his rookie year, where he was among the best players in the league in successful zone exit passes. To play NHL-worthy defense as a small and slow player, you have to be near-perfect with the puck, and Smith is not doing that, so sheltering him will help, but it will not make him look good, because he's not good right now.

When playing against lesser comp, it's much easier to play better. Opposition gives up the puck more, they pressure less, you're not on your heals, you're not frantic, you have more confidence, you make better decisions.

But we do agree Smith is having issues. We just disagree on the solution. I think one game off isn't going to do much. I mean wouldn't just a couple days off between games do the same thing? Now I'm not against trying it, but I think in the long run it's more then that.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I was really happy to see Matty on TV again yesterday and he called the game really well.

It's hard to believe he's been with the team pretty much through my entire fanhood from the late 90s to now. He's truly a nice staple for the organization. You know he loves the team, he pretty much comes out for every team sponsored event to represent them. Genuinely nice, pleasant to interact with. Him and Chico are gems.

He and Bob Papa for the Giants. Gems for each franchise.

 

[Triumph]

When playing against lesser comp, it's much easier to play better. Opposition gives up the puck more, they pressure less, you're not on your heals, you're not frantic, you have more confidence, you make better decisions.

But we do agree Smith is having issues. We just disagree on the solution. I think one game off isn't going to do much. I mean wouldn't just a couple days off between games do the same thing? Now I'm not against trying it, but I think in the long run it's more then that.

A player cannot be sheltered to the extent that you pretend is possible. There's not 4 hockey games going on out there, there's 1, and while a player can be hidden a bit, teams will try to match up their best players against your weakest ones sometimes.

Smith might need to sit multiple games if Colton White plays well. He has to be sharp out there and he's not. It's not a punishment, he's just not playing NHL quality hockey right now. The Devils got a top pair to put above him and he's doing significantly worse so far this season.

 

[Triumph]

If I said remarkable I'd see your point.

I'll again lay out my full argument from above.

1)Mercer fell to 18
2)Mercer had a really good D+1
3)Mercer's play in preseason warranted him playing in the NHL.
4)The 16 game sample.

So it's more then just the 16 game sample. It's part of it for sure, no reason at all to ignore it, but it's more then that.

2) is not an argument for him going higher in a redraft. That kind of performance is what is expected out of top picks.

In 2018-19, Joe Veleno had 1.74 PPG in his D+1 season, he was taken 30th overall
In 2017-18, Max Comtois had 1.57 PPG in his D+1 season, he was taken 50th overall
In 2015-16, Timo Meier and Anthony Beauvillier had comparable numbers, as did Yevgeni Svechnikov, all 1st rounders out of the Q
In 2014-15, Nikolai Ehlers had 1.96 PPG in his D+1 year

We can keep going like this, but it's just that for various reasons, including drafting Pavel Zacha, the Devils just haven't had this sort of player in a long time who is actually putting up great performances in junior hockey.

Now that said, players do have worse seasons, Pierre-Luc Dubois had lower numbers and then walked into the NHL as a 2nd line player. So points aren't everything, as I think to some degree we're seeing. But I don't think Mercer would go top 3 or top 5 in a redraft.

 

[Nubmer6]

He is great. I enjoy his play by play a lot more than Cangi

Yeah, but does he say "hop, skip, and a jump"?

 

[devilsblood]

2) is not an argument for him going higher in a redraft. That kind of performance is what is expected out of top picks.

In 2018-19, Joe Veleno had 1.74 PPG in his D+1 season, he was taken 30th overall
In 2017-18, Max Comtois had 1.57 PPG in his D+1 season, he was taken 50th overall
In 2015-16, Timo Meier and Anthony Beauvillier had comparable numbers, as did Yevgeni Svechnikov, all 1st rounders out of the Q
In 2014-15, Nikolai Ehlers had 1.96 PPG in his D+1 year

We can keep going like this, but it's just that for various reasons, including drafting Pavel Zacha, the Devils just haven't had this sort of player in a long time who is actually putting up great performances in junior hockey.

Now that said, players do have worse seasons, Pierre-Luc Dubois had lower numbers and then walked into the NHL as a 2nd line player. So points aren't everything, as I think to some degree we're seeing. But I don't think Mercer would go top 3 or top 5 in a redraft.

2)Except some above him did not have a good +1. Holtz for instance.

Cherry picking guys in the past who put up good +1 #'s does not mean all guys in that range, or in this case drafted above Mercer, put up that level of production.

 

[devilsblood]

A player cannot be sheltered to the extent that you pretend is possible. There's not 4 hockey games going on out there, there's 1, and while a player can be hidden a bit, teams will try to match up their best players against your weakest ones sometimes.

Smith might need to sit multiple games if Colton White plays well. He has to be sharp out there and he's not. It's not a punishment, he's just not playing NHL quality hockey right now. The Devils got a top pair to put above him and he's doing significantly worse so far this season.

Butcher and Lovejoy put up top pairing #'s together. Why? Because they complemented each other so well that it overcame the fact that they were really 3rd pairing level players? C'mon, this isn't a romcom. Butcher played 40% of his minutes against 4th line level players. His cf% against that comp was 57%. He played less then 20% of his minutes vs elite level comp, his cf% vs that comp 48%. 60% offensive zone starts overall for Butch. He was sheltered, it's there in the #'s.

 

[Eggtimer]

I’m hoping Smith continues to develop and can improve still .
If he doesn’t , I can see him not being considered a core player and might be available once our other prospects come around. It will depend on the development of others. If Smith gets passed on the depth chart… he should be used as an asset to improve the roster elsewhere. I’m hoping that’s not the case and he becomes the player I think he can still be.

 

[devilsblood]

I’m hoping Smith continues to develop and can improve still .
If he doesn’t , I can see him not being considered a core player and might be available once our other prospects come around. It will depend on the development of others. If Smith gets passed on the depth chart… he should be used as an asset to improve the roster elsewhere. I’m hoping that’s not the case and he becomes the player I think he can still be.

It's a complicated projection. We do have 2 high end lhd prospects. But one is in Russia, and the other plays a bunch on the right side.

Then factor in Graves and his free agency in a a year. Does he stay? Does Smith struggling make it that much more important that we sign him?

One could say Smith on the 3rd pair, but we have Sieg's and like 4 other defensive oriented lhd prospects looking at that spot as well. Smith as a RHD on the 3rd, but then we potentially have 2 lefties playing right.

 

[Triumph]

2)Except some above him did not have a good +1. Holtz for instance.

Cherry picking guys in the past who put up good +1 #'s does not mean all guys in that range, or in this case drafted above Mercer, put up that level of production.

Sigh. Once again, you can't follow an argument. It's not cherry picking guys. It's basically going through every 1st round forward picked out of the Q. There have not been very many of them who played a D+1 year in the Q for various reasons. Mercer's production is right in line with those guys. It isn't anything out of the ordinary.

Butcher and Lovejoy put up top pairing #'s together. Why? Because they complemented each other so well that it overcame the fact that they were really 3rd pairing level players? C'mon, this isn't a romcom. Butcher played 40% of his minutes against 4th line level players. His cf% against that comp was 57%. He played less then 20% of his minutes vs elite level comp, his cf% vs that comp 48%. 60% offensive zone starts overall for Butch. He was sheltered, it's there in the #'s.

Yes, they did complement each other that well - Lovejoy was solid at entry denials and Butcher was solid at exits. I never argued that Butcher wasn't sheltered - I argued that it is not possible to shelter Smith to the extent that his numbers will look anything close to Butcher's. How about instead of going through numbers from 4 years ago for a player who doesn't play here anymore, you go through Smith's numbers from this year and look at those? I'll bet he's not getting 57% CF against 4th liners.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Nico is deservedly getting some flack but let’s not forget he’s being dragged down by Zacha at ES. Zacha is a really bad 5v5 player. So many possessions die on his stick

 

[Hisch13r]

Nico is deservedly getting some flack but let’s not forget he’s being dragged down by Zacha at ES. Zacha is a really bad 5v5 player. So many possessions die on his stick

*undeservedly

 

[13BearerOfHope]

Ya, and Graves is going to be the template now, but a righty Graves would be nice. Or a righty Sieg's on the 3rd pair.

Graves has been a superb acquisition, rock solid, plays a simple, reliable game. Surprised me. Him and Dougie are a top pair in the league. Siegs and Subban a strong 3rd pairing. El problemo is that couple 24 - 28…
I would probably wait till Ty picks his game up then trade both for another top D (bigger stronger faster smarter) and bridge with White or someone until the Russian monster or kiddo Hughes come into the lineup.

 

[Camille the Eel]

This topic has gone far astray but:

1. I think we’ve got little choice except letting Ty play through it and learn. And it’s a good idea even if we had a choice. And,

2. What I like most about Subban right now is that when teams take liberties with us he’s the one guy who will push back, spear and slash back, but not let it happen. We’ve got too little of that and will miss that element when he goes.