Player Discussion Dan Girardi: Part V

[Raspewtin]

How come the Rangers are in the very bottom of the league in Corsi but we are 8-2-2?

What is the explanation for that?

The guy with the .943 SV%

 

[Machinehead]

That is fine. But teams can have excellent Corsi and still have players whose Corsi counts are average at best. That does not define if said player is good or bad. Your point is valid on which teams have done well. But that is an overall statistic. They can have excellent offensive players. They can also have excellent defensive players whose Corsi is not so hot. But the players do in preventing goals helps the offensive players pad their Corsi.

Corsi is not something defensive players inherently struggle at. In fact many consider it to be a defensive stat.

You're right to say that good corsi teams have average corsi players. They don't have anchors. There's a difference.

How come the Rangers are in the very bottom of the league in Corsi but we are 8-2-2?

What is the explanation for that?

The Rangers aren't really near the bottom. They're 13th in close game situations and 11th in tie game situations. The overall number is skewed because the Rangers have had multiple 3 goal leads.

Regardless, teams near the bottom have won games. They never win the Cup though. In fact we'd be bucking the trend if we won the Cup at 11th

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Corsi is not something defensive players inherently struggle at. In fact many consider it to be a defensive stat.

You're right to say that good corsi teams have average corsi players. They don't have anchors. There's a difference.



The Rangers aren't really near the bottom. They're 13th in close game situations and 11th in tie game situations. The overall number is skewed because the Rangers have had multiple 3 goal leads.



Regardless, teams near the bottom have won games. They never win the Cup though. In fact we'd be bucking the trend if we won the Cup at 11th

The 09 Penguins were a 16th-best Close game Corsi team at 49.2%.
Their all-score-situation CF% was 19th best at 48.1%.

The 2011 bruins were 14th in all-situation CF% at 50.7.
When adjusting for score it brings them up to 10th at 51.6%. Still not a great or even good possession team.

I get your point. It's probably in a teams best interest to be the best possession team they can be, but those 2 teams are some examples of bad-mediocre teams that have won the cup. Again, cup winners are such a small sample size but Corsi for the most part certianly is on their side.

 

[The Gloaming]

The 09 Penguins were a 16th-best Close game Corsi team at 49.2%.
Their all-score-situation CF% was 19th best at 48.1%.

The 2011 bruins were 14th in all-situation CF% at 50.7.
When adjusting for score it brings them up to 10th at 51.6%. Still not a great or even good possession team.

I get your point. It's probably in a teams best interest to be the best possession team they can be, but those 2 teams are some examples of bad-mediocre teams that have won the cup. Again, cup winners are such a small sample size but Corsi for the most part certianly is on their side.

Then 09 Penguins also underwent a coaching change in the middle of the year, and I believe finished with a much better Corsi than they started with.

The 2011 Bruins will forever be an exception in Corsi and in "You need an elite center to win a Cup" (although Krejci and Bergeron certainly played like elite centers that year). Combine that with Tim Thomas having perhaps the best playoffs for a netminder since the 06 lockout, and you got yourself the 2011 Bruins SC Victory. Certainly possible, but your chances of winning the Cup increase with a top CF% and an elite center.

 

[nyrleetch]

Can you search corsi by situation?

I would like to know Girardi's because he's the guy on the ice at the end when we go into a shell.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Then 09 Penguins also underwent a coaching change in the middle of the year, and I believe finished with a much better Corsi than they started with.

The 2011 Bruins will forever be an exception in Corsi and in "You need an elite center to win a Cup" (although Krejci and Bergeron certainly played like elite centers that year). Combine that with Tim Thomas having perhaps the best playoffs for a netminder since the 06 lockout, and you got yourself the 2011 Bruins SC Victory. Certainly possible, but your chances of winning the Cup increase with a top CF% and an elite center.

This is true, but in the playoffs their CF% went back to 48.5% and 50% in close situations.

For the latter, Patrice Bergeron is absolutely an elite player from a possession standpoint. He was a 54.7% possession player in 2011. The bruins without him were a 49.5% possession team. Over the past 5 seasons, Bergeron is a 58.5% CF player and without him the 'Ruins are a 50.8% possession team. He literally is that team, from a puck possession standpoint.

Bergeron literally outpossess every single one of his top competition and opponents. Guy has puck magnets embedded in his stick blade.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=572&withagainst=true&season=2011-15&sit=5v5

 

[True Blue]

Corsi is not something defensive players inherently struggle at. In fact many consider it to be a defensive stat.

But "struggling" to get a better Corsi correlation is also affected by outside factors. Factors that Corsi does not consider. Let's blow this up to illustrate the point. Let's say that Girardi ONLY takes defensive draws while a Yandle or a Boyle ONLY takes offensive zone draws. Over the course of the season, Girardi would "struggle" to get a better Corsi correlation. Meanwhile, the other two will have an easier time achieving a better result.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

But "struggling" to get a better Corsi correlation is also affected by outside factors. Factors that Corsi does not consider. Let's blow this up to illustrate the point. Let's say that Girardi ONLY takes defensive draws while a Yandle or a Boyle ONLY takes offensive zone draws. Over the course of the season, Girardi would "struggle" to get a better Corsi correlation. Meanwhile, the other two will have an easier time achieving a better result.

You're overstating the impact of a zone start. In fact, you can ignore off/def zone draws completely and only examine what happens after neutral zone starts, or on the fly starts (coming of the bench during play) and the numbers remain the same.

I am not sure if your argument is 'Dan Girardi is actually an average or passable possession player, it's the numbers/situations that are skewed...' or 'Dan Girardi isn't a good puck possession player but he still is a good defenseman and hockey player and can succeed without the puck very much.'

 

[Machinehead]

But "struggling" to get a better Corsi correlation is also affected by outside factors. Factors that Corsi does not consider. Let's blow this up to illustrate the point. Let's say that Girardi ONLY takes defensive draws while a Yandle or a Boyle ONLY takes offensive zone draws. Over the course of the season, Girardi would "struggle" to get a better Corsi correlation. Meanwhile, the other two will have an easier time achieving a better result.

To an extent. Zone starts don't excuse just how bad Girardi drags down the Rangers in possession and scoring chances.

 

[TheTakedown]

What I don't get is how Corsi is being used as a means of predicting the future, but past results are being ignored.

For instance, LA had the #1 Corsi rating in the NHL last year, and they didn't make the playoffs.

This year, they are still one of the top Corsi teams, and are doing well (though after a rough start).

It smells like confirmation bias. Picking and choosing...

Also, I believe Carolina and Toronto are right there in the top 10 as well. They're not winning.

Don't get me wrong. CF is cool and I have enjoyed going through the stats recently. It seems like something is missing, though - like we're one piece away from figuring out a more perfect statistic for determining present and future success.

Last year the Flames made the playoffs with a terrible possession metric... this year, they can barely buy a win.

2 years ago the avalanche made the playoffs with low possession metrics and a VERY high (read: unsustainable) PDO. The following year, they missed the playoffs. Again this year, they don't look so good.

Since you're going to Cherry pick, we might as well too...

Corsi isn't perfect, but it plays a strong hand in predicting the quality of a teams play outside of the scoreboard

 

[TheTakedown]

The 09 Penguins were a 16th-best Close game Corsi team at 49.2%.
Their all-score-situation CF% was 19th best at 48.1%.

The 2011 bruins were 14th in all-situation CF% at 50.7.
When adjusting for score it brings them up to 10th at 51.6%. Still not a great or even good possession team.

I get your point. It's probably in a teams best interest to be the best possession team they can be, but those 2 teams are some examples of bad-mediocre teams that have won the cup. Again, cup winners are such a small sample size but Corsi for the most part certianly is on their side.

The following year the Bruins were ousted in the 1st round. The next year they made the cup final, the next year 2nd round, then missed the playoffs. There is more than just Corsi at play there though--their team makeup changed a lot.

The Penguins have only made it past the 2nd round ONCE since winning the cup. All other times have been 1st or 2nd round exits....I would say that indicates the quality of their play isn't what the scoreboard dictates. This assumes you understand the coaching change mid season when they did win the cup

 

[DanielBrassard]

Good to see Girardi feeling back to normal. -13 CF against a terrible Avs team who was on a BTB.

 

[BB58]

^ lol Almost everytime hes on ice, I'm sweating bullets.

 

[TheRightWay]

- The 15-16 Colorado Avalanche are the 2nd-worst possession team of the last decade. Only last year's Sabres were worse

- The Colorado Avalanche came into the game with the second-worst record in the NHL.

- Dan Girardi was given 4 offensive zone starts compared to 3. Only Keith Yandle was given a better ratio among Rangers' defensemen.

- Dan Girardi was last among Rangers' defensemen in event strength time-on-ice.

- Dan Girardi ranked dead last among Rangers in score-adjusted Corsi, at -9.9. The next worst was Ryan McDonagh, his partner, at -5.8. No other Rangers' defenseman was in the negative.

- Ryan McDonagh was 18.8% in possession when with Girardi and 66.7% away from him.

- Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello, the team's two best possession forwards, were on the ice for ZERO Rangers' shot attempts when Girardi was also on the ice. When Girardi wasn't on the ice, they were on the ice for 11 Rangers' shot attempts.

- Girardi got embarrassed by Nathan MacKinnon for the only Colorado Avalanche goal tonight.


Any questions?

 

[FLYLine27*]

That was quite the defensive play he had tonight on that first goal...

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Credibility is lost when you come here to criticize him for playing poorly today, which he did, after you weren't here the last five or so games where he's been very good. Thats not addressed to all the Girardi haters, by the way. Some actually gave him credit for playing well.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Not to mention...Hank wants that goal back.

Not good by Girardi by any means. But normally you let a guy shoot from there with all passing lanes cut off and it isn't a huge deal.

 

[The Gloaming]

- The 15-16 Colorado Avalanche are the 2nd-worst possession team of the last decade. Only last year's Sabres were worse

- The Colorado Avalanche came into the game with the second-worst record in the NHL.

- Dan Girardi was given 4 offensive zone starts compared to 3. Only Keith Yandle was given a better ratio among Rangers' defensemen.

- Dan Girardi was last among Rangers' defensemen in event strength time-on-ice.

- Dan Girardi ranked dead last among Rangers in score-adjusted Corsi, at -9.9. The next worst was Ryan McDonagh, his partner, at -5.8. No other Rangers' defenseman was in the negative.

- Ryan McDonagh was 18.8% in possession when with Girardi and 66.7% away from him.

- Derick Brassard and Mats Zuccarello, the team's two best possession forwards, were on the ice for ZERO Rangers' shot attempts when Girardi was also on the ice. When Girardi wasn't on the ice, they were on the ice for 11 Rangers' shot attempts.

- Girardi got embarrassed by Nathan MacKinnon for the only Colorado Avalanche goal tonight.


Any questions?

Yeah, the bolded. Is that a typo or something? We're talking about an 18% CF for McD with Girardi in this game? How is that even attainable if you're not Tanner Glass playing on the 14-15 Buffalo Sabres?

 

[Raspewtin]

Yeah, the bolded. Is that a typo or something? We're talking about an 18% CF for McD with Girardi in this game? How is that even attainable if you're not Tanner Glass playing on the 14-15 Buffalo Sabres?

Because Dan Girardi sucks at defending, attacking, and most things hockey related.

 

[Machinehead]

Of course it's a bad game. It's always a bad game when McCorsi and Girardi are together. Keep trying it, AV.

 

[TheRightWay]

Credibility is lost when you come here to criticize him for playing poorly today, which he did, after you weren't here the last five or so games where he's been very good. Thats not addressed to all the Girardi haters, by the way. Some actually gave him credit for playing well.

Forget about other games for now. I just want you to acknowledge that, against virtually the easiest opponent possible in pretty much ideal circumstances, Dan Girardi was historically dreadful in this game. We can move on to broader terms once you admit this instead of sidestepping it.

 

[anofsti]

Girardi is probably a serviceable 3. pairing defenseman by this point. No way he should be on the ice against any top forwards.

 

[Revel]

Last year the Flames made the playoffs with a terrible possession metric... this year, they can barely buy a win.

And last year Carolina was a Top 10 Corsi team that did not make the playoffs. This year, they are a Top 4 Corsi team, yet they only have 1 more point than the Flames.

Corsi isn't perfect, but it plays a strong hand in predicting the quality of a teams play outside of the scoreboard

I don't expect it to be. I did say that I enjoy it and think it's a cool stat.

 

[eco's bones]

Ironically Girardi was on the ice for the only even strength goal of the game--Lindberg's eventual game winner. He was +1.

More than less I could care less about all this ****. We won---which is what matters most to me. Time to move on to the next game.

 

[Carl Swaglin]

I just think he shouldn't be on the top pair anymore he should be on the second pair and Klein should be on the first which gives us a 1a 1b and what I would say is a 2b 3rd line.