overpass
Registered User
- Jun 7, 2007
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Using the game-by-game plus-minus correlation method I outlined here, I'm going to go through the careers of some of the great defencemen from 1960 to 2000 and identify who their defence partners were. Starting with the great Bobby Orr.
I'm bolding anything about 0.7 as more-or-less a full season partner. If there were other regular partners on the team, I'll put them in parentheses.
1966-67: Gilles Marotte 0.61, Dallas Smith 0.44, Bob Woytowich 0.42, Joe Watson 0.35, Ted Green 0.35
1967-68: Dallas Smith 0.30, Ted Green 0.23 (Awrey-Green 0.80)
1968-69: Dallas Smith 0.84 (Awrey-Green 0.81)
1969-70: Don Awrey 0.72, Gary Doak 0.41
1970-71: Dallas Smith 0.78 (Awrey-Green 0.77)
1971-72: Rick Smith 0.74, Don Awrey 0.44 (D. Smith - Green 0.84)
1972-73: Don Awrey 0.54, Dallas Smith 0.27 (Awrey-Vadnais 0.61)
1973-74: Al Sims 0.75, Daryl Edstrand 0.57 (D. Smith - Vadnais 0.74)
1974-75: Dallas Smith 0.56, Al Sims 0.51, Carol Vadnais 0.38
Comments:
Now I'll take a look at maybe a more interesting question, which is how much did Orr's plus-minus correlate with Phil Esposito's? This should help give some insight into how much the two of them played together and relied on each other. For this part, I'll post the Esposito-Orr correlation first, and then the average correlation of Esposito with the other D-men next. If the Espo-Orr correlation was substantially higher than the average Espo-other D man correlation, we can conclude that Esposito and Orr played together and influenced each others results more than we would expect if ice time for forwards and defence were unrelated.
1967-68: Esposito-Orr 0.21, with others 0.43
1968-69: Esposito-Orr 0.52, with others 0.47
1969-70: Esposito-Orr 0.48, with others 0.47
1970-71: Esposito-Orr 0.53, with others 0.31
1971-72: Esposito-Orr 0.36, with others 0.37
1972-73: Esposito-Orr 0.63, with others 0.48
1973-74: Esposito-Orr 0.66, with others 0.32
1974-75: Esposito-Orr 0.70, with others 0.42
Here's how I interpret the numbers above. While Harry Sinden was coaching the Bruins (through 69-70), Orr and Esposito did not play any more together than you would expect from a #1 D and a #1 C who played the minutes they did. Esposito's plus-minus was not any more related to Orr's than it was to the other defencemen.
In 1970-71, Tom Johnson's first season coaching the team, he may have relied on the Orr-Esposito combination a bit more. This was the season when the Bruins blew the league away, statistically speaking, in the regular season, but were upset in the playoffs. The next season, 71-72, Johnson went back to the Sinden coaching pattern where Orr and Esposito were largely independent and didn't play together any unusual amount.
In 1972-73, things start to change. Suddenly in the final 3 seasons of the Orr-Espo combination, you start seeing correlations that are what you might see from semi-regular partners or linemates. And in fact, the 1972-73 season can be broken down further. In the first 52 games that Tom Johnson coached, the Espo-Orr correlation was 0.52 (0.59). In the last 26 games coached by Bep Guidolin, the correlation shot up to 0.76 (-0.08). Guidolin was also the coach for 73-74, and Don Cherry was the coach for 74-75. So it looks like Guidolin and Cherry relied on putting Esposito and Orr out together as much as possible, unlike Sinden and Johnson.
What does this mean? Well, it suggests that Orr and Esposito's individual numbers from 72-73 through 74-75 may have been a little inflated relative to their earlier seasons, because they relied on playing together more often to post those statistics.
I'm bolding anything about 0.7 as more-or-less a full season partner. If there were other regular partners on the team, I'll put them in parentheses.
1966-67: Gilles Marotte 0.61, Dallas Smith 0.44, Bob Woytowich 0.42, Joe Watson 0.35, Ted Green 0.35
1967-68: Dallas Smith 0.30, Ted Green 0.23 (Awrey-Green 0.80)
1968-69: Dallas Smith 0.84 (Awrey-Green 0.81)
1969-70: Don Awrey 0.72, Gary Doak 0.41
1970-71: Dallas Smith 0.78 (Awrey-Green 0.77)
1971-72: Rick Smith 0.74, Don Awrey 0.44 (D. Smith - Green 0.84)
1972-73: Don Awrey 0.54, Dallas Smith 0.27 (Awrey-Vadnais 0.61)
1973-74: Al Sims 0.75, Daryl Edstrand 0.57 (D. Smith - Vadnais 0.74)
1974-75: Dallas Smith 0.56, Al Sims 0.51, Carol Vadnais 0.38
Comments:
- Orr's first two seasons were all over the place and it's hard to find a regular partner.
- Oddly enough, 1966-67 points to Gilles Marotte as Orr's most frequent partner. But Marotte finished the season a -41 and Orr a +1, so this doesn't make sense on the face of it. Why the high correlation? Well, in the games they both played, the plus-minus difference was "only" 33 (+3 and -30). They had the same plus-minus in 24 of 58 games, and were within 1 of each other in 46 of 58 games. In those 46 games Orr was -6 and Marotte was -16. 15 of the 33 point difference came from 3 games - Feb 16 against Montreal, Feb 25 against Chicago, and Mar 15 against Montreal, where Orr was a combined +7 and Marotte a combined -8. So maybe it's possible that Marotte played with Orr for some of the year and just happened to have a terrible plus-minus when he didn't. I don't know, it's a weird season.
- 1968-69 is probably Orr's closest season to having a full-time partner. After that, he was probably playing enough minutes that he would play with multiple partners on D even if he had a primary partner - which he usually did.
- In 1972-73, Orr appears to have mostly played with Dallas Smith in the first half of the season, and with Don Awrey in the secon half of the season. IN 1974-75, it looks like he started off with Al Sims and finished with Dallas Smith.
Now I'll take a look at maybe a more interesting question, which is how much did Orr's plus-minus correlate with Phil Esposito's? This should help give some insight into how much the two of them played together and relied on each other. For this part, I'll post the Esposito-Orr correlation first, and then the average correlation of Esposito with the other D-men next. If the Espo-Orr correlation was substantially higher than the average Espo-other D man correlation, we can conclude that Esposito and Orr played together and influenced each others results more than we would expect if ice time for forwards and defence were unrelated.
1967-68: Esposito-Orr 0.21, with others 0.43
1968-69: Esposito-Orr 0.52, with others 0.47
1969-70: Esposito-Orr 0.48, with others 0.47
1970-71: Esposito-Orr 0.53, with others 0.31
1971-72: Esposito-Orr 0.36, with others 0.37
1972-73: Esposito-Orr 0.63, with others 0.48
1973-74: Esposito-Orr 0.66, with others 0.32
1974-75: Esposito-Orr 0.70, with others 0.42
Here's how I interpret the numbers above. While Harry Sinden was coaching the Bruins (through 69-70), Orr and Esposito did not play any more together than you would expect from a #1 D and a #1 C who played the minutes they did. Esposito's plus-minus was not any more related to Orr's than it was to the other defencemen.
In 1970-71, Tom Johnson's first season coaching the team, he may have relied on the Orr-Esposito combination a bit more. This was the season when the Bruins blew the league away, statistically speaking, in the regular season, but were upset in the playoffs. The next season, 71-72, Johnson went back to the Sinden coaching pattern where Orr and Esposito were largely independent and didn't play together any unusual amount.
In 1972-73, things start to change. Suddenly in the final 3 seasons of the Orr-Espo combination, you start seeing correlations that are what you might see from semi-regular partners or linemates. And in fact, the 1972-73 season can be broken down further. In the first 52 games that Tom Johnson coached, the Espo-Orr correlation was 0.52 (0.59). In the last 26 games coached by Bep Guidolin, the correlation shot up to 0.76 (-0.08). Guidolin was also the coach for 73-74, and Don Cherry was the coach for 74-75. So it looks like Guidolin and Cherry relied on putting Esposito and Orr out together as much as possible, unlike Sinden and Johnson.
What does this mean? Well, it suggests that Orr and Esposito's individual numbers from 72-73 through 74-75 may have been a little inflated relative to their earlier seasons, because they relied on playing together more often to post those statistics.