Cup dream keys (must haves for a cup win)

TheTechNoir

fall 2021 bull, probably
Feb 18, 2013
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I was talking to my buddy and sent him this message:

Man, wanna know something great about Makar?

His career points per game average is 1.06 in the regular season

His career points per game average is 1.11 in playoffs.
Keep in mind, he started his career in the playoffs. So it’s not like he only started in the playoffs after getting some seasoning and improvement, too

Then I ended up adding this:
Nathan MacKinnon?
Career ppg regular season: 1.14
Career ppg playoffs:1.31

Let’s compare that to Mitch Marner
Regular season ppg:1.11
Playoff ppg:0.91
Finally, I ended up just listing some things off the top of my head that I consider as some keys for a cup win, with examples (or examples of lacking it):

For cup dreams:
You need a good team (see McDavid - not on a good team for a lot of his career)

You need a playoff built team (see Edmonton - they can be good at this point in the regular season, but they haven't been built for a cup run)

A minimum of an average goalie helps tremendously (see Philly - they got to the finals with a sub-NHL calibre tandem because of being an elite team, but they lost to prime Chicago in a goal Kane didn't even know he scored, in game 6 of OT because their goaltending was horrible, and they had a really incompetent bottom d pair - if they had a playable bottom pair their top-4 wouldn't be burnt out, and/or if they had a league average goaltender, they probably win the cup; underrated great team and play-off built, minus those 2 crucial kinks in the armour)

Without an elite big game performing goaltender, you need a playable bottom defense pairing to win the cup, no matter how good your top-4 and fwd group is (see Philly from above example)

You need clutch, big game performers (see Justin Williams and his positive impact in multiple cup runs for multiple teams - Williams was never a superstar forward, and he never played on a prime Tampa Bay or Chicago or anything, but:
"Williams won the Stanley Cup three times: in 2006 with the Hurricanes and in 2012 and 2014 with the Kings. Nicknamed "Mr. Game 7", Williams played nine game seven playoff games in his NHL career, with his team sporting a 8–1 record in these games. He currently is tied for most goals in these games with Glenn Anderson at seven, and has the outright record for most game seven points, with 15. Williams won the Conn Smythe Trophy as most valuable player of the playoffs in 2014 with the Kings.")

You need your higher-end players to perform at their best in the biggest games (see Daniel Briere - a star forward in the regular season during his prime who became even better in the playoffs, especially at the most high pressure times)

If you don’t have an elite AND big game goaltender (see Patrick Roy in Montreal who won the cup in Montreal and had 10 straight play-off OT wins + Conn Smythe for a team that was over-wise not the best team in multiple series they played)
Then you need elite offence to outscore your problems, as well as star dmen who can log major minutes, or at least one Selke-level Fwd who can log major minutes (see Flyers with 6 20++ goal scoring fwds, timonen and pronger who almost won the cup with legit 2 average-good AHL goalies and a bottom d pair who didn’t belong in the nhl)

Having above average offence AND an elite big game goalie really helps a lot, and provides flexibility if your bottom d pair isn’t competent at all (see Tim Thomas in Boston - altho their bottom pair wasn’t THAT bad, and they didn’t have much star power at D, but they did have a game breaking Tim Thomas, and a prime Patrice Bergeron eating tons of minutes)

Also, mobile but physically strong forwards are crucial in the playoffs (see Montreal vs Philly sweep, Montreal was the tiniest teams in the league, and you had guys like Mike Richards and Scott Hartnell sit in front of Price at will with no chance for the Habs to do anything about it, much less stand up to Pronger in front of the Flyers end, or beat in for a puck in the corner)




I'm sure there are more, but I would bet that for the most part, any modern cup winning team more or less falls in line with these keys.

Like: This year's Toronto Maple Leafs: They don't have a true #1 D, and their defensive core overall is not very strong. They do have elite offence, but they have historically under-performed in the playoffs (see Marner), and to his credit, Matthews is one of the best defensive fwds this season, but he hasn't shown to be a consistently prominent big-pressure game player. Finally, they don't have a game-breaking goal-tender, so they don't have the keys. I think if your team is primarily offence as a strength, it's harder to satisfy all of these keys for a cup, then if your team is built out with physicality, goaltending, showing up to big games, and defense.

Compared to last years' cup winner, Vegas:
Alex Pietrangelo, a #1 D
Shea Theodore who can eat big minutes
A selke-calibre forward who can eat big minutes in Mark Stone
You had a star forward in Jack Eichel show up in big games
you had Jonathan Marchessault who is a bit underrated, but not generally looked at quite as a star player, really show up clutch
And you had Adin Hill put in a league average-or better goaltending performance in the playoffs.
You had big bodies that could handle physical edge

I suppose I should add that an adaptable coach, especially when it comes to playing a match-up against a team that you don't match-up well against stylistically can be crucial, as well. This has been demonstrated by some of the best teams many times when turning a series around, or running away with it.

I figured I would share here. It's really basic, but still figured I would.
 
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TheTechNoir

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Feb 18, 2013
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Having some veteran presence on a team is also important, both in the locker room and on the ice.

Or let's look at Vegas-Dallas now:
Dallas coach Pete DeBoer has never won a cup, though he spent a long time between a strong San Jose Sharks club, and then Vegas. Dallas has one of the deepest teams in the league, you could definitely argue they do have the deepest team. They match-up poorly vs Vegas stylistically (they need DeBoer to adapt to that, and now they have to go to Vegas where Vegas has last change advantage). You do have strong offensive tools like Jason Robertson, they aren't too small or physically weak of a team, they have a #1 D in Heiskanen, and they have Jake Oettinger who has shown to be a game-breaking level goalie in the playoffs before, but it's a small sample size, and he hasn't consistently proven himself to be elite in the playoffs. It doesn't help that they have 1 d-man with under 10 mins per game average so far. They do have veterans like Joe Pavelski. There is a lot to like about this club.

Vegas' forward group is led pts wise by their highest end offensive player in Eichel, Marchessault has is next-up, and Mark Stone (selke-calibre forward) who is just coming back from injury is averaging just under 18 mins of ice-time so far. The lowest ice-time any of their D have played is 15:30. Coach Bruce Cassidy won the cup last year with this team, someone like Alex Pietrangelo is an experienced veteran at this point, and still really good. Their goalie isn't exactly proven in the regular season yet, and definitely not in the post-season, but it's reasonable to call him at least in line around an average NHL goalie from what we have seen.
 

TheTechNoir

fall 2021 bull, probably
Feb 18, 2013
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If you compare the previous multiple-cup teams over the past 20 years you realize there is definitely more than one structure for a winning team. Pens vs Hawks vs Kings vs TBL were all very different.

Definitely all very different.

But all 4 of them had:
Ability to keep up with physicality
Some combo of: league average NHL goalie all the way to elite, play-off proven big game goalie, 6 D who could play 10+ mins per game each and not be terrible liabilities, or at least 4 + great goalie + a strong defensive fwd that could eat lots of minutes. They all had coaches that were able to adapt to any series if needed. They all had higher end players on the team perform big in big moments/games, as well as complimentary players who aren't quite at that level, also perform really clutch. All were play-off built teams (clearly), All had veteran presence.
 

SUX2BU

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Feb 6, 2018
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I was talking to my buddy and sent him this message:

Man, wanna know something great about Makar?

His career points per game average is 1.06 in the regular season

His career points per game average is 1.11 in playoffs.
Keep in mind, he started his career in the playoffs. So it’s not like he only started in the playoffs after getting some seasoning and improvement, too

Then I ended up adding this:
Nathan MacKinnon?
Career ppg regular season: 1.14
Career ppg playoffs:1.31

Let’s compare that to Mitch Marner
Regular season ppg:1.11
Playoff ppg:0.91
Finally, I ended up just listing some things off the top of my head that I consider as some keys for a cup win, with examples (or examples of lacking it):

For cup dreams:
You need a good team (see McDavid - not on a good team for a lot of his career)

You need a playoff built team (see Edmonton - they can be good at this point in the regular season, but they haven't been built for a cup run)

A minimum of an average goalie helps tremendously (see Philly - they got to the finals with a sub-NHL calibre tandem because of being an elite team, but they lost to prime Chicago in a goal Kane didn't even know he scored, in game 6 of OT because their goaltending was horrible, and they had a really incompetent bottom d pair - if they had a playable bottom pair their top-4 wouldn't be burnt out, and/or if they had a league average goaltender, they probably win the cup; underrated great team and play-off built, minus those 2 crucial kinks in the armour)

Without an elite big game performing goaltender, you need a playable bottom defense pairing to win the cup, no matter how good your top-4 and fwd group is (see Philly from above example)

You need clutch, big game performers (see Justin Williams and his positive impact in multiple cup runs for multiple teams - Williams was never a superstar forward, and he never played on a prime Tampa Bay or Chicago or anything, but:
"Williams won the Stanley Cup three times: in 2006 with the Hurricanes and in 2012 and 2014 with the Kings. Nicknamed "Mr. Game 7", Williams played nine game seven playoff games in his NHL career, with his team sporting a 8–1 record in these games. He currently is tied for most goals in these games with Glenn Anderson at seven, and has the outright record for most game seven points, with 15. Williams won the Conn Smythe Trophy as most valuable player of the playoffs in 2014 with the Kings.")

You need your higher-end players to perform at their best in the biggest games (see Daniel Briere - a star forward in the regular season during his prime who became even better in the playoffs, especially at the most high pressure times)

If you don’t have an elite AND big game goaltender (see Patrick Roy in Montreal who won the cup in Montreal and had 10 straight play-off OT wins + Conn Smythe for a team that was over-wise not the best team in multiple series they played)
Then you need elite offence to outscore your problems, as well as star dmen who can log major minutes, or at least one Selke-level Fwd who can log major minutes (see Flyers with 6 20++ goal scoring fwds, timonen and pronger who almost won the cup with legit 2 average-good AHL goalies and a bottom d pair who didn’t belong in the nhl)

Having above average offence AND an elite big game goalie really helps a lot, and provides flexibility if your bottom d pair isn’t competent at all (see Tim Thomas in Boston - altho their bottom pair wasn’t THAT bad, and they didn’t have much star power at D, but they did have a game breaking Tim Thomas, and a prime Patrice Bergeron eating tons of minutes)

Also, mobile but physically strong forwards are crucial in the playoffs (see Montreal vs Philly sweep, Montreal was the tiniest teams in the league, and you had guys like Mike Richards and Scott Hartnell sit in front of Price at will with no chance for the Habs to do anything about it, much less stand up to Pronger in front of the Flyers end, or beat in for a puck in the corner)




I'm sure there are more, but I would bet that for the most part, any modern cup winning team more or less falls in line with these keys.

Like: This year's Toronto Maple Leafs: They don't have a true #1 D, and their defensive core overall is not very strong. They do have elite offence, but they have historically under-performed in the playoffs (see Marner), and to his credit, Matthews is one of the best defensive fwds this season, but he hasn't shown to be a consistently prominent big-pressure game player. Finally, they don't have a game-breaking goal-tender, so they don't have the keys. I think if your team is primarily offence as a strength, it's harder to satisfy all of these keys for a cup, then if your team is built out with physicality, goaltending, showing up to big games, and defense.

Compared to last years' cup winner, Vegas:
Alex Pietrangelo, a #1 D
Shea Theodore who can eat big minutes
A selke-calibre forward who can eat big minutes in Mark Stone
You had a star forward in Jack Eichel show up in big games
you had Jonathan Marchessault who is a bit underrated, but not generally looked at quite as a star player, really show up clutch
And you had Adin Hill put in a league average-or better goaltending performance in the playoffs.
You had big bodies that could handle physical edge

I suppose I should add that an adaptable coach, especially when it comes to playing a match-up against a team that you don't match-up well against stylistically can be crucial, as well. This has been demonstrated by some of the best teams many times when turning a series around, or running away with it.

I figured I would share here. It's really basic, but still figured I would.

You didn’t make it basic
 
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DFC

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I think you need star players who are willing to work like grinders. You can't add grit and heart to the periphery of the team and think you'll be ok. Has to be in the core.
 

NyQuil

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2011 Bruins: Refs on your side, league office on your side, and a clean slate to dive and throw dirty hits with no consequences

Truly the dream

Ironically, the playoff avatars for the Canucks board that year were:

1714322601297.jpeg
 

VivaLasVegas

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IMHO, a team probably is not going to win a Cup unless they have at least the following:

(1) Goalie(s) playing well;

(2) Depth, since injuries will occur during a long playoff run and/or stars will just eventually exhaust themselves if they have to carry the full load over a long run;

(3) Stars who will set the example by playing a complete 200' game;

(4) Veteran leadership who will keep the team from getting too high or too low;

(5) Discipline to stay off the PP as much as possible and not get distracted by inconsequential events;

(6) A competent coaching staff capable of adjusting on the fly and which avoids at least the worst self-inflicted decisions; and

(7) A team's self-belief in its own Championship destiny.

Probably others can think of some more factors, but these come to my mind at least. Maybe a team can still win a Cup without one of these things if they are just hot, but if you don't have two of them, well, good luck and try again next year.
 
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BMOK33

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In general you need 2 dmen who are fairly elite and can play 35-40 a night. The Hawks obviously never had that and somehow did it with the likes of Roszival and playing 5dmen but chances anyone else could ever do that is near zero. You also need borderline short bus/special injury luck. I always point out the 03-04 Lightning of an example of this, a very fringe elite team who had 18 man games lost to injury, yes, EIGHTEEN for the entire season. A goalie who has at most 2-3 bad games, its rare you won't see around that many in a cup run but more than that the odds you can escape it are pretty low. 2 elite centers, and depth on all scoring lines. Since 05-06 I do not think many if any teams who won did not have all of these or close to all
 
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TheTechNoir

fall 2021 bull, probably
Feb 18, 2013
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2011 Bruins: Refs on your side, league office on your side, and a clean slate to dive and throw dirty hits with no consequences

Truly the dream

So you don't think Tim Thomas played a role? You don't think having 5 D who were capable of each 16 mins+ per game, and their 6th D playing 13 (plus having prime Patrice Bergeron playing almost 19 mins per game) played a role? Claude Julien's coaching, Mark Recchi's presence, a still good Lucic's physical presence, or Kreicji and Marchand's performances in key moments?
 

TheTechNoir

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I think you need star players who are willing to work like grinders. You can't add grit and heart to the periphery of the team and think you'll be ok. Has to be in the core.

I agree. Didn't specifically note this, but I think it falls under being a play-off built team, veteran presence, coaching, and physicality. Definitely important! Look at how crazy good the Avs team was that just won the cup - but even then, without MacKinnon's intense drive and competitive nature, backed up by some of their best players putting their bodies' on the line and setting an example, plus presumably some of their vet players and coach supplementing MacKinnon and Landeskog's leadership, that undoubtedly helped elevate them even further, especially when they faced a bit of adversity vs STL.
 

TheTechNoir

fall 2021 bull, probably
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In general you need 2 dmen who are fairly elite and can play 35-40 a night. The Hawks obviously never had that and somehow did it with the likes of Roszival and playing 5dmen but chances anyone else could ever do that is near zero. You also need borderline short bus/special injury luck. I always point out the 03-04 Lightning of an example of this, a very fringe elite team who had 18 man games lost to injury, yes, EIGHTEEN for the entire season. A goalie who has at most 2-3 bad games, its rare you won't see around that many in a cup run but more than that the odds you can escape it are pretty low. 2 elite centers, and depth on all scoring lines. Since 05-06 I do not think many if any teams who won did not have all of these or close to all

To be clear, you mean who *can* play 35-40 per night, not who do, right? Or not who do often. Having to rely on that (Philly needing to rely on Pronger-Carle, Timonen-Coburn exclusively, and their 3rd pairing being sub-NHL calibre and a death sentence to ice) getting burnt out by the finals due to over-use all playoffs long, paired with having Michael Leighton, a below average NHL back-up goalie at best, is why they lost to Chicago in the finals.

Last year, Vegas had 2 dmen average over 20 mins - Piet & Theo with 23 min and 20 min respectively. The year before, Toews & Makar averaged over 20 mins - 27 each, and 6 dmen avg 17 mins or more. Due to injury, though, their replacement for Girard, JJ avg'd only 11. The year before that, you see 24, 22, 21, 19, 14, 14 - or rounded up some are a few seconds shy of another minute.

Anyway, when an individual game calls for it, I agree that you need 2 dmen capable of playing at a high level and eating major minutes like that, but certainly not all playoffs long - historically we don't see that, and we do see over-reliance on the top pairs, unless backed with a minute eating selke-level forward and great goaltending, is a major hindrance in going all the way.

That Tampa squad is an excellent example of the injury luck - though I would say the more injury luck you have, the better your odds, of course, but plenty of teams have won the cup with some of their best players injured for some and/or all of their playoff run, but they were so good, and complete with all these other pieces, they were still able to take home the ultimate prize.
 

sbhnur

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Dec 26, 2020
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- Playoff experience
- good team defence and goaltending
- reliable scoring
- luck with injuries (not having severe injuries on key player)
- good special teams

You need at least 4 out 5 from these points to win the cup, usually 5 out 5.
 
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