To better frame the “casino ups and downs” with regard to bitcoin, i recommend first reading about “Gartner hype cycles” to understand why the ups and downs occur, and then looking at a logarithmic chart of the bitcoin price over the past 15 years to understand just how often the ups have outpaced the downs, and to what orders of magnitude.
Here is a visual representation of my point above:
View attachment 799329
For the past 13 years Bitcoin has gone through a repeated pattern of Gartner hype cycles in which it experiences three straight years of significant upward volatility, followed by one year of significant downward volatility. Assuming this established pattern holds (not guaranteed obviously), then 2022 was the latest “crash year”, 2023 was the first green year (+150% or so), and 2024 and 2025 are both likely to be years in which we see continued significant upward volatility. This is of course in large part due to the halving which takes place in April 2024, and will probably be aided/magnified in part due to Bitcoin Spot ETFs likely being approved by the SEC this year which will allow larger pools of capital to take positions with significantly more regulatory clarity and ease of access.
So while Bitcoin's price is extremely volatile and difficult to predict on short time frames, it has (at least historically speaking) been very predictable on long time frames. Here's another way to visualize this phenomenon:
View attachment 799332
It is almost like clockwork when visualized properly, rather than just on a linear graph where it looks like one big a tulip bubble/crash.
As to when it is useful in society, I would argue that it already is. It allows people to store their wealth in a way that no one else can censor or confiscate it, and if they hold onto it long enough it has historically increased their purchasing power dramatically, which allows them to increase their ability to allocate capital in the economy. Bitcoin mining also has a very substantial benefit for environmental purposes between its ability to monetize waste natural gas that would otherwise be vented or flared into the atmosphere, to monetize stranded energy like hydroelectric dams that have insufficient demand for local delivery, to help new renewable energy projects reach break-even and profitability more quickly, and to help build a flexible base demand load which allows power grids to be stabilized and meet higher than usual needs during times of emergency. A whole essay could be written on this topic, but that's just a quick overview. Here's a whitepaper on the topic:
Bitcoin is Key to an Abundant, Clean Energy Future (ARK/Square)
bigtime.gg
