Olympics: Could USA be the favorite heading into PyeongChang 2018?

[JackSlater]

That's not how statistics works lol...it's not you either win or you lose.

That's not how reading works. Odds means probability that something will happen. Even though Canada has the best roster, the odds of them winning is still much lower than 100%.

 

[Theokritos]

Yeah on paper Canada has the best team, like always. In a one game elimination tournament though I give Canada around a 50% chance of winning. There are too many variables.

That's not how statistics works lol...it's not you either win or you lose.

He's not saying Canada has a 50% chance (vs 50% for the opponent) in any given elimination game. He is saying Canada has a 50% chance in a tournament where the winner is determined through single elimination games. Canada 50%, Sweden 15% (to pull a number out of the hat), USA 15% and so on. That's what he's saying.

 

[ottawa]

He's not saying Canada has a 50% chance (vs 50% for the opponent) in any given elimination game. He is saying Canada has a 50% chance in a tournament where the winner is determined through single elimination games. Canada 50%, Sweden 15% (to pull a number out of the hat), USA 15% and so on. That's what he's saying.

thanks, that's a better explanation

That's not how reading works. Odds means probability that something will happen. Even though Canada has the best roster, the odds of them winning is still much lower than 100%.

That's not how writing works, I didn't expect this to be a literacy test where I'd have to take your poorly constructed sentence and rephrase it to understand it. Maybe you should get it proof read beforehand.

On topic, I don't think the odds of them winning are really as low as you claim, especially if you say they have a 50% chance of winning it while the rest of the teams have a combined 50%.

Those are great odds, and will only increase after every round.

 

[JackSlater]

thanks, that's a better explanation



That's not how writing works, I didn't expect this to be a literacy test where I'd have to take your poorly constructed sentence and rephrase it to understand it. Maybe you should get it proof read beforehand.

On topic, I don't think the odds of them winning are really as low as you claim, especially if you say they have a 50% chance of winning it while the rest of the teams have a combined 50%.

Those are great odds, and will only increase after every round.

Well considering that you needed a person using their second language to explain it to you, I'd say the fault is with you. In a tournament I would give them a 50% chance of winning. You for some inane reason assumed that I meant the odds of winning or losing in a given game were 50%. I wouldn't have said 'tournament' if I'd meant game. Basic English comprehension would explain that to you.

Your understanding of probability is also poor. The odds are not 50% at first and then increasing with each round, they start lower than 50% but rise as Canada advances. Anyway, it's all just conjecture on my part though, though much more realistic than your impossible suggestion that Canada has a 100% chance of winning.

 

[93LEAFS]

Canada barely beat the USA the last 2 times. Add Eichel, Mathews and Larkin at center and that drastically improves the US's chance of beating Canada or Sweden.

You do realize its not like Canada has stayed stagnate, you can apply the what ifs to McDavid, Mackinnon, Drouin, Strome, Marner, Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart etc. Canada has had the first overall pick in 7 of the last 10 drafts (McDavid, Ekblad, Mackinnon, RNH, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos). Could you beat us? Sure, but be favorites I doubt it. Also realize we didn't have 2 of our most talented players (who would be the #1 center on USA) by the gold medal game in Tavares and Stamkos.

 

[93LEAFS]

Well considering that you needed a person using their second language to explain it to you, I'd say the fault is with you. In a tournament I would give them a 50% chance of winning. You for some inane reason assumed that I meant the odds of winning or losing in a given game were 50%. I wouldn't have said 'tournament' if I'd meant game. Basic English comprehension would explain that to you.

Your understanding of probability is also poor. The odds are not 50% at first and then increasing with each round, they start lower than 50% but rise as Canada advances. Anyway, it's all just conjecture on my part though, though much more realistic than your impossible suggestion that Canada has a 100% chance of winning.

I know its not exact (because it is shifted by bets) but does anyone know what the lines were for winning it outright in 2014?

 

[JackSlater]

I know its not exact (because it is shifted by bets) but does anyone know what the lines were for winning it outright in 2014?

I believe the odds for Canada were around 2/1, which is actually roughly what they were for Russia as well.

 

[lawrence]

It's always been the big 5, and the USA is right up there with Canada, Russia, Finland and Sweden.

that said, when it's all one game elimination games, the USA can take the gold.

 

[KevinRedkey]

When you look at the array of talent they could suddenly be putting out there:

C
Jack Eichel
Tyler Johnson
Auston Matthews
Dylan Larkin
Kyle Connor
Paul Stastny
Joe Pavelski
Derek Stepan
Brandon Dubinsky
Kevin Hayes
Anders Lee

RW
Patrick Kane
Phil Kessel
Blake Wheeler
Craig Smith
Alex Tuch
Jeremy Bracco
Brock Boeser

LW
Max Pacioretty
Johnny Gaudreau
Nick Foligno
Justin Abdelkader
Jimmy Vesey


LD
Noah Hanifin
Ryan McDonagh
Justin Faulk
Keith Yandle
Alex Goligoski

RD
Erik Johnson
Seth Jones
John Carlson
Kevin Shattenkirk
Jacob Trouba

G
Ben Bishop
John Gibson
Connor Hellebuyck
Jon Gillies

In terms of raw talent, they seem to have a bigger pool to draw from than either 2010 or 2014. I'm sure I forgot a few names, too.

Bolded = Would be considered for team Canada
RED = Would definitely make team Canada
Regular = Would be left off the invitation list entirely

So 2 to 5 players (off that list) would make the Team Canada roster... They aren't even close in terms of being favored.

That said - they could beat Canada... just not on paper.

 

[Zippy316]

Canada is always going to have the best team on paper.

But USA, Russia, Sweden, and possibly Finland will always put out a roster that could beat Canada in a singular game. It's not like Canada is that much better then those nations, but they are definitely on a different tier.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Bolded = Would be considered for team Canada
RED = Would definitely make team Canada
Regular = Would be left off the invitation list entirely

So 2 to 5 players (off that list) would make the Team Canada roster... They aren't even close in terms of being favored.

That said - they could beat Canada... just not on paper.

Keseel makes it

 

[Siludin]

No offense to the USA team but half those players in the OP are 2nd/3rd liners in the NHL. The Canadian team always ices a team of 1st line stars across every position. For that reason, I say Canada is the favourite.

 

[93LEAFS]

Bolded = Would be considered for team Canada
RED = Would definitely make team Canada
Regular = Would be left off the invitation list entirely

So 2 to 5 players (off that list) would make the Team Canada roster... They aren't even close in terms of being favored.

That said - they could beat Canada... just not on paper.

McDonagh makes it over one of Vlasic or Hamhuis on the 2014 team and I don't think its close.

 

[JackSlater]

Bolded = Would be considered for team Canada
RED = Would definitely make team Canada
Regular = Would be left off the invitation list entirely

So 2 to 5 players (off that list) would make the Team Canada roster... They aren't even close in terms of being favored.

That said - they could beat Canada... just not on paper.

No way is Pacioretty a lock to make Canada. I think McDonagh definitely would though, and Faulk would get at least strong consideration.

 

[Canadian Finn]

Let's just see if USA can even medal at the next Olympics.

I still remember the Finns handing them their arses during the last Olympics.

Fondly remember the yanks on this board claiming "well, we don't want 3rd, so we are not trying....."

USA Favourite? Not likely! Let's just see if they can manage to get a medal this time.

 

[ikzu]

Anything can happen in one game. Therefore there will always be more possible gold medalists. We have seen that so many times, when ridicously better teams (on paper) have lost to team that has played more as a team.

Finland is great example for this. Nagano 1998, when they dropped Sweden and won Wayne Gretzkys Canada in a bronze medal game.

Other huge surprise was Torino 2006, when they were almost flawless throughout the tournament. I can still remember that finnish media and fans gave them no chance before the tournament. There was a lot of injuries and so on.

Also World Cup 2004 was a big surprise. 2010 and 2014 bronze medals wasn't that big of surprise anymore.

On last decades Somehow Finland have managed to be at their best always everytime in big tournaments. And i don't see any reason why that trend couldn't continue?

Yes, that is a fact that on paper Finland won't have as many huge superstars, but as we have seen on the future, the points that you have made in NHL doesn't play any role in international tournaments.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Canada is always going to have the best team on paper.

And pretty much on the ice from now until 2018 (more than likely beyond). I don't see any holes whatsoever.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

The USA is definitely on the rise. And is now Canada's biggest rival in international hockey.

But Canada has more skill in every position by a significant margin still.

 

[habsrule4eva3089]

The USA is definitely on the rise. And is now Canada's biggest rival in international hockey.

But Canada has more skill in every position by a significant margin still.

Not even close.

Canada vs. Russia is what epitomizes Hockey.

Who cares about the Americans, it's just another rivalry like Finland or Sweden vs the Russians it's so much more. It can't be explained.

It feels good beating the Americans because we're stuck with them but beating the Russians...incomparable.

 

[xxxx]

Both America and Canada are getting better in my opinion. That means, Canada is still the favorite, because the gap is still there and it's not small.

 

[xxxx]

Not even close.

Canada vs. Russia is what epitomizes Hockey.

Who cares about the Americans, it's just another rivalry like Finland or Sweden vs the Russians it's so much more. It can't be explained.

It feels good beating the Americans because we're stuck with them but beating the Russians...incomparable.

I think the rivalry with the US is more like between brothers...and it is exciting. But with Russia it's a different rivalry, it's a different style, different culture, everything. I like both

 

[DSuttersface]

No they aren't. But it's entertaining to see Bracco, Tuch and Boesner ahead of guys like Okposo and Pominville on the depth chart...

Also no mention on Johnathan Quick.

 

[moropanov]

Russia is too bad compared to Canada to be considered competitive rivalry nowadays.... of course history wise because of CCCP, but now difference in level between these those countries is about same as Finland compared Latvia/Belarus or somethink like that

 

[Hardyvan123]

​

* After Canada

And most likely Sweden and maybe Russia as well.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Not even close.

Canada vs. Russia is what epitomizes Hockey.

Who cares about the Americans, it's just another rivalry like Finland or Sweden vs the Russians it's so much more. It can't be explained.

It feels good beating the Americans because we're stuck with them but beating the Russians...incomparable.

I somewhat agree. The Russian international team doesn't like the Canadians for sure. But that because whenever we play best-on-best Canada crushes Russia.

That said in International hockey it's become Canada-USA that's the biggest rivalry. The new years eve game at the WJC has become somewhat of a classic. Canada and the USA always seem to meet in critical games and generally play really exciting hockey. The US is just a deeper, tougher team then the Russians are right now and they present more of an obstacle to Canada, and thus they are our biggest rivals.