Cap'n Flavour
Registered User
Who is claiming that advanced stats will predict the results of 8 game stretches anyways?
Corsi/Fenwick don't even have a strong correlation with goal differential over the course of a full season, it's something like 0.3. Special teams, goaltending (sv%), sh%, and luck have a major role in scoring goals and winning game too. Every time I read some half-baked criticism of advanced stats this is pointed out as if it's a fatal flaw of possession statistics. Newsflash, the people with a clue working on this stuff already realized all of this. Possession is still correlated with winning, though, so it's blindingly obvious that you want to have good possession to have a better chance of winning games without running on luck.
What people like Mirtle were saying is that the Leafs' play early on in the season was unsustainable. It was. They said that the Leafs' good record even through February was masking some quite poor on-ice play and was going to backfire sooner or later - maybe not enough for the Leafs to miss the playoffs entirely, but possibly during the playoffs themselves. That was and is also true. The point about the Leafs' abysmal ROW and dependence on shootout points to balance poor regulation+OT play also stands. Did Corsi predict that the Leafs would lose eight pathetic games in a row? No, but so what? It never claimed to. Plus every time I read ridiculous statements like that, I imagine that clueless blowhard Cox blaming Jim Corsi for personally predicting the result of every game, sometimes incorrectly.
Corsi/Fenwick don't even have a strong correlation with goal differential over the course of a full season, it's something like 0.3. Special teams, goaltending (sv%), sh%, and luck have a major role in scoring goals and winning game too. Every time I read some half-baked criticism of advanced stats this is pointed out as if it's a fatal flaw of possession statistics. Newsflash, the people with a clue working on this stuff already realized all of this. Possession is still correlated with winning, though, so it's blindingly obvious that you want to have good possession to have a better chance of winning games without running on luck.
What people like Mirtle were saying is that the Leafs' play early on in the season was unsustainable. It was. They said that the Leafs' good record even through February was masking some quite poor on-ice play and was going to backfire sooner or later - maybe not enough for the Leafs to miss the playoffs entirely, but possibly during the playoffs themselves. That was and is also true. The point about the Leafs' abysmal ROW and dependence on shootout points to balance poor regulation+OT play also stands. Did Corsi predict that the Leafs would lose eight pathetic games in a row? No, but so what? It never claimed to. Plus every time I read ridiculous statements like that, I imagine that clueless blowhard Cox blaming Jim Corsi for personally predicting the result of every game, sometimes incorrectly.
Last edited by a moderator: