Rengorlex
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2021
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Found this graph in Twitter. WJC performance just doesn't seem to matter at all.
Found this graph in Twitter. WJC performance just doesn't seem to matter at all.
View attachment 628233
My guess (and this is only a guess) is that, over a sufficiently large sample size, there would be a moderate correlation between points in the World Juniors, and production at the NHL level (controlling for age - see next paragraph). The biggest problem is the WJ tournaments are short. Therefore any type of forward-looking analysis is based on a tiny sample size (which, in part, would explain the wide error bars).
Two other issues. First, "points in the WJ" doesn't take a player's age into account. 4 points in 7 games would suggest two very different career trajectories depending on if it's, say, a 17 year old vs a 19 year old putting up those numbers.
The other issue is this seems to be comparing offensive production with GAR. I'm not completely sold on the validity of any "all in one" hockey stat, but this doesn't appear to be an apples-to-apples comparison, since raw offensive production (points) is being compared to GAR (which, if I understand correctly, takes into account defensive play, penalties drawn, etc). The input (points in WJ) is measuring one thing, and the output (WAR at NHL level) is measuring something different. Maybe the correlation would be higher if strictly offensive production in the NHL was measured.