Speculation: Contract Predictions 2021 and Beyond

[Sun God Nika]

Sens currently have a cap hit of 50.5M locked up for next year with actual salary at 49M. Cap Ceiling is likely 81.5M however unlikely sens ever spend near there.

21-22We have Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Artem Zub and Victor Mete being the most notable players who need a contract for next season.

22-23 Alex Formenton, Josh Norris, and Erik Brannstrom are the must sign guys

23-24 this is the more speculative year but you have Stutzle, Pinto, JBD and UFA Connor Brown up.

*Chris Tierneys 4.2M salary drops after 21-22 which frees up some dollars for 22-23. Daddanov contract ends when its time to renew that 23-24 group.
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i'm predicting the following

Brady Tkachuk 8.25M* 6 Years

Brady will show Ottawa some commitment to get the C by giving us 6 years of his career and a UFA year but it also gives him the opportunity if shit goes south to go somewhere else and cash in again in his prime as UFA.

Drake Batherson 5M * 4 Years

Ottawa will walk Drake right to UFA in order to get the lowest caphit possible to go on their FYOUS run. Theres risks on both sides of the deal. Batherson at 23 should be an is what he is type situation but if he regresses the sens get burned or if he continues to improve he left dollars on the table.

Artem Zub 3.75M * 3 Years

Top 4 Dman but due to the lack of track record in the NHL sens might get a deal on the $$$ if they offer a bit of term.

Victor Mete 1.1M * 1 year

Mete is a waiver pick up and has very little leverage

Click to read more...

 

[saskriders]

How many years until Zub is an UFA?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Brady Tkachuk has done absolutely nothing to justify over 8 mil. Long-term, short-term, whatever-term.

7 years 50 mil or 7.5 for brady

5.25x5/6 for Drake

3.75x3/4 for Zub

1.25 x 1 for Mete

 

[Sweatred]

I’d bridge Drake for two years and let him stay motivated to keep improving for his next deal.

The Colin White contract needs to be avoided for these guys who’ve put up part of a season of decent play. $20+ million is too much financial security to really foster that interest motivation to become the best player they can.

 

[Tuna99]

Why pay Mete anything beyond the minimum? I’m for giving him and extension but nothing over $1 million. He’s on a 2 way contract next year if Ottawa wants.

Brady needs to be paid like a Captain of a Canadian team. This guy is a legend in Ottawa already, pinching him on a contract right now and inking the water is the completely wrong thing to do. Might pay him more then his stats dictate, and he deserves every penny because he does way more then the stats show.

 

[Tuna99]

Brady Tkachuk has done absolutely nothing to justify over 8 mil. Long-term, short-term, whatever-term.

7 years 50 mil or 7.5 for brady

5.25x5/6 for Drake

3.75x3/4 for Zub

1.25 x 1 for Mete

Chabot is making $8 mill and Brady can’t be paid less then Chabot. Chabot might be a better player but his stats where no near justifying $8 million when he signed

I doubt Ottawa has any real signing bonus money for Brady (maybe a million here or there) so the AVV will have to be high because he won’t be getting the tax break on the signing bonus.

 

[BondraTime]

Chabot is making $8 mill and Brady can’t be paid less then Chabot. Chabot might be a better player but his stats where no near justifying $8 million when he signed

I doubt Ottawa has any real signing bonus money for Brady (maybe a million here or there) so the AVV will have to be high because he won’t be getting the tax break on the signing bonus.

Chabot scored 55 points in 70 games as a D when he signed

Tkachuk has a 45 point in 71 game career high as a winger at the point of his signing.

Stat wise, Chabot has Brady beat by a gigantic margin contractual wise.

 

[GCK]

Brady 8 x 8M
Batherson 6 x 5M
Zub 3 x 3M
Mete 2 x 1.5M
Norris 7 x 6M.

 

[Tuna99]

Chabot scored 55 points in 70 games as a D when he signed

Tkachuk has a 45 point in 71 game career high as a winger at the point of his signing.

Stat wise, Chabot has Brady beat by a gigantic margin contractual wise.

all good, Brady doesn’t play for less then Chabot. That only makes sense

 

[MCNSTY]

Brady 8 x 8M
Batherson 6 x 5M
Zub 3 x 3M
Mete 2 x 1.5M
Norris 7 x 6M.

Does Brady sign for anything longer than a bridge? I’d like to think he would after all the great things he has to say about Ottawa, but I’ve been trained to believe that he’s going bridge after all this time..

 

[Xspyrit]

I'm not able to predict anything Dorion does. He signed Anton Forsberg on a 1 year 1-way deal and I still have no idea why

I really hope Tkachuk signs 7 M$ x 8 years. I mean, he could probably get more but that's already a lot of money and it could really help build a championship team.

Look at the Bruins for example

Krejci 6 x 7.25 (28 y/o, coming off a 69 pts, +39 season, had already 2 really great playoffs runs on his resume)
Bergeron 8 x 6.75 (28 y/o, was already proven as a perennial Selke candidate, one of the best 2-way centers)
Pastrnak 6 x 6.66 (20 y/o, coming off a 34 goals/70 pts season)
Marchand 8 x 6.125 (28 y/o, coming off a 37 goals season)

That's the kind of contracts that put a team in a great position going forward and hopefully our guys are not too greedy

 

[BondraTime]

all good, Brady doesn’t play for less then Chabot. That only makes sense

How so? Contracts are made using precedent. There's no precedent of a forward who's career high is 45 points getting 8 million a year. None.

It's very likely he signs for 3 years, in the 6/6.5 range

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Maybe a glass half full if you think that Brady's preference is a bridge.\
3 x 6.5 not escalating.

 

[GCK]

I'm not able to predict anything Dorion does. He signed Anton Forsberg on a 1 year 1-way deal and I still have no idea why

I really hope Tkachuk signs 7 M$ x 8 years. I mean, he could probably get more but that's already a lot of money and it could really help build a championship team.

Look at the Bruins for example

Krejci 6 x 7.25 (28 y/o, coming off a 69 pts, +39 season, had already 2 really great playoffs runs on his resume)
Bergeron 8 x 6.75 (28 y/o, was already proven as a perennial Selke candidate, one of the best 2-way centers)
Pastrnak 6 x 6.66 (20 y/o, coming off a 34 goals/70 pts season)
Marchand 8 x 6.125 (28 y/o, coming off a 37 goals season)

That's the kind of contracts that put a team in a great position going forward and hopefully our guys are not too greedy

Forsberg was signed to protect against losing one of Gus or Daccord in the expansion draft. Sogaard is ECHL starter. Daccord or Gus is AHL starter with Mandolese as AHL backup.

 

[Xspyrit]

Forsberg was signed to protect against losing one of Gus or Daccord in the expansion draft. Sogaard is ECHL starter. Daccord or Gus is AHL starter with Mandolese as AHL backup.

Really? Didn't read about that. Please explain how. Last time I checked, both Daccord and Gustavsson would have to be exposed.

 

[GCK]

Really? Didn't read about that. Please explain how. Last time I checked, both Daccord and Gustavsson would have to be exposed.

You misunderstood, we will likely lose one in the expansion draft and this signing provides a backup for Murray. Dorion could have waited and signed him post expansion draft but as is his way he got trigger happy.

 

[TkachukMyAho]

I'd bridge them all, especially Batherson. He's not looking at 5M on a bridge.

Keep that competitive window open. Even for Brady, if you sign him to a bridge now ~5-6M instead of the 8M long term, it's not like he's goign to be commanding 12M when his bridge is over. It's just smart business.

 

[Xspyrit]

You misunderstood, we will likely lose one in the expansion draft and this signing provides a backup for Murray. Dorion could have waited and signed him post expansion draft but as is his way he got trigger happy.

Oh, you got me optimistic for a second... maybe your wording brought some confusion ("protect")

Well, this is what I would have done :

Protect Gustavsson, leave Murray and Daccord exposed

Seattle most likely don't pick Murray because his AAV is high and has 3 years left. There will be less risky options. Unless they want to take costly gambles right away, can't see it. They also probably don't take soon to be 25 y/o and unproven (and recently injured) Daccord who has a career 0.894 SV% in the NHL. There will be several better options

NHL : Murray, Gustavsson
AHL : Daccord, Sogaard
ECHL = Mandolese

Daccord would probably play a few games as goalies often get injured.

Notes : Sogaard is way too good to go to the ECHL, well at least IMO.
Mandolese is pretty young too, probably a good place for him to develop next season

 

[playasRus]

I see 0 scenario where Brady gets more money than Chabot per year, unless he's bridged and breaks out as a 70 pt player. The 8 mil x 8 years is already on the basis that we're paying him for intangibles, which is double what his production usually gets a player. I agree that he's a player you like to bridge 2-3 years and then sign 6-7 years at that 7-8 mil range after getting a couple years to see he can even hit that 60 pt threshold.

Feels like we're spinning it almost as if being Captain gets you an extra 4 mil in salary. 3 years at 6-6.5 mil is great for the team, not so good for him as he knows he can minimum get 7M x 8 y from the Senators. Passion and all, it's still a job and salary comes first.

Would start offseason with:

Batherson 5 x 5.0M - consistently > PPG in AHL, 0.5 PPG in NHL first two years with small samply size, and pacing 50 pts over 82 games in first "full" year. Likely to produce at 60+ point pace and has shown to improve every year at every level. Lock him up while we can on a value contract, as he'll likely command 6M per in 2-3 years.

Norris 5 x 5.0M - Same as Batherson but less track record, more pedigree. Kicks in a year later however.

Then tackle Brady. Can his agent argue >>> 5mil x 5 despite identical production to the above two purely from a leadership and physicality perspective?

Zub 4 x 3.75M - extends him one year past Zaitsev to give us some cushion on the right side in 3 years.

Mete 1 x 1.0M - show me, bridges to Sanderson's arrival as our #2LHD

Brannstrom 2 x 2.0M - show me. Buffer's Sanderson's arrival as our #2LHD for his rookie and sophomore.

 

[SensFactor]

I agree, north of 8 million for Brady is too much

7.65 x 7 years for Tkachuk (get him locked up long-term and give him the C)
5.25 x 3 years for Drake (I'd like to take a shorter term with him, he would still be an RFA after this contract)
3.25 x 4 years for Zub (4 years is better than 3 and he's worth it)
1.25 x 2 years for Mete (I'd give Mete the extra year here. Cheap contract and if he plays decent, I think he will have some better trade value than he did in MTL)

 

[SpezDispenser]

Just make sure they're all rfas when the contracts expire please and don't f*** up like we did with Stone and to a lesser degree Duchene again.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

I'm not able to predict anything Dorion does. He signed Anton Forsberg on a 1 year 1-way deal and I still have no idea why

I really hope Tkachuk signs 7 M$ x 8 years. I mean, he could probably get more but that's already a lot of money and it could really help build a championship team.

Look at the Bruins for example

Krejci 6 x 7.25 (28 y/o, coming off a 69 pts, +39 season, had already 2 really great playoffs runs on his resume)
Bergeron 8 x 6.75 (28 y/o, was already proven as a perennial Selke candidate, one of the best 2-way centers)
Pastrnak 6 x 6.66 (20 y/o, coming off a 34 goals/70 pts season)
Marchand 8 x 6.125 (28 y/o, coming off a 37 goals season)

That's the kind of contracts that put a team in a great position going forward and hopefully our guys are not too greedy

Krejci and Bergeron both signed into their 35s at a 11% cap hit. With today's salary cap, that's 9 million with the team risk of both of those players declining towards the end of their contracts. Certainly worth the money in their prime when they signed, but Boston got lucky that they've aged nicely.

I also hope we don't go full Dubas and start giving players blank cheques.

 

[Big Muddy]

Does Brady sign for anything longer than a bridge? I’d like to think he would after all the great things he has to say about Ottawa, but I’ve been trained to believe that he’s going bridge after all this time..

That's a good question, and something that I've wondered about as well. He has U.S. roots, so who knows?

 

[Sun God Nika]

Well I was off on zub. I wonder where he is gonna go in two years

 

[Xspyrit]

Krejci and Bergeron both signed into their 35s at a 11% cap hit. With today's salary cap, that's 9 million with the team risk of both of those players declining towards the end of their contracts. Certainly worth the money in their prime when they signed, but Boston got lucky that they've aged nicely.

I also hope we don't go full Dubas and start giving players blank cheques.

Unless my memory plays tricks on me, they were still considered friendly deals.

Tkachuk is only 21 y/o and hasn't produced more than 45 max yet...

Sure, if the pandemic didn't happen and the NHL market was continuing booming and the salary cap rising, 7 x 8 years would be very friendly. But now I'd consider it very fair.