Rumor: Columbus interested in Douggie Hamilton

[blahblah]

Exactly. And Phaneuf is only one of the bunch. Here's another example to compare.

22 years old Hamilton has played 72 games, scored 42(10+32) points
A few years ago another 22 years old D-man has played 68 games, scored 40(6+34) points. He also was a 1st round selection.
I know exactly that a lot of Jackets fans would have been happy to get him at that time. He is out of the league for a while now.

lol, cute. Was there anything that was supposed to come out of this? Evaluate the player in question and don't try and make a irrelevant comparison. There are players that have scored more or less, as well as the same over the course of their first few years. Some worked, some didn't. There is nothing to be learned form it since they are different people.

I haven't seen anything other than gut feel on this guy. Dougie is a pretty good player and will be in the league for a while.

 

[WannabeFinn]

lol, cute. Was there anything that was supposed to come out of this? Evaluate the player in question and don't try and make a irrelevant comparison. There are players that have scored more or less, as well as the same over the course of their first few years. Some worked, some didn't. There is nothing to be learned form it since they are different people.

I haven't seen anything other than gut feel on this guy. Dougie is a pretty good player and will be in the league for a while.

But isn't this a gut feeling as well?

 

[CBJFan827]

Exactly. And Phaneuf is only one of the bunch. Here's another example to compare.

22 years old Hamilton has played 72 games, scored 42(10+32) points
A few years ago another 22 years old D-man has played 68 games, scored 40(6+34) points. He also was a 1st round selection.
I know exactly that a lot of Jackets fans would have been happy to get him at that time. He is out of the league for a while now.

It took me about 10 minutes to find that you were comparing him to Cam Barker. Looking over both players' first three years head to head, Hamilton (statistically) looks to be a superior player with higher usage (albeit on better teams).

I think the better comparison is Jay Bouwmeester, who he was compared to during his draft year. His first three year numbers are comparable to J-Bo's from a decade ago. Obviously, there's no guarantee Hamilton will have the career of Bouwmeester, but it gives some hope (rather than a random comparison to another top 10 defenseman pick).

 

[major major]

This whole rumor is simply Boston media throwing crap against the wall and seeing if it sticks. columbus has tradable forwards, Boston isn't giving Hamilton 7 mil a season unless he changes his name to Weber overnight.

It's what I refer to as "the Horton effect" and Boston isn't the only one guilty of doing it to the CBJ, of course it might have been called "the Marchant effect" in the past.

A player is scooped up from your organization or on the rebound, is paid big money despite some questions surrounding them, from then on out, every player moving towards the door, logically, in that organization is going to be seen as "headed a particular location because that other organization has shown itself capable of doing dumb things iinvolving overpayment either as a trade or in FA or both".

philly did it for a while after the Jeff Carter trade, until they were robbed for Bob and took Mason off our hands.

? The Horton effect?

This has zilch to do with Horton. The Jackets have a shortage of top d, especially rhd, and Hamilton is a 21year old with franchise d upside. Of course the two will be linked. And when it comes to franchises to prey on, if anything Boston is a target after they failed massively in assessing Seguin.

And the case for Hamilton doesnt depend on stats.. no one is arguing that 40 pts at age 21 is all that meaningful. The case for or against Hamilton depends entirely on scouting.. some say he'll be a superstar, some, like Mayor Bee, think he will be more of a Phaneuf. Thats the entire debate.

 

[Mayor Bee]

lol, cute. Was there anything that was supposed to come out of this? Evaluate the player in question and don't try and make a irrelevant comparison. There are players that have scored more or less, as well as the same over the course of their first few years. Some worked, some didn't. There is nothing to be learned form it since they are different people.

I haven't seen anything other than gut feel on this guy. Dougie is a pretty good player and will be in the league for a while.

The fact that Cam Barker produced at a similar clip after being brought along "the right way" and then completely fell apart is absolutely an important consideration. A team that's looking to throw an offer sheet at someone will have to lay out (immense) salary and assets to be able to get him, and to compare to someone of the same age and pedigree and production to that point is a pretty logical thing to do.

Yeah, there have been 500+ pitchers who started their career out better than Sandy Koufax at the same age and never came close to what he did, and there have been 500 defensemen who started off well and continued to develop. But if you saddle your team with a crushing contract and the guy doesn't continue to develop into an actual top-level defenseman, you've just squeezed your team for the next decade.

 

[Mayor Bee]

It took me about 10 minutes to find that you were comparing him to Cam Barker. Looking over both players' first three years head to head, Hamilton (statistically) looks to be a superior player with higher usage (albeit on better teams).

I think the better comparison is Jay Bouwmeester, who he was compared to during his draft year. His first three year numbers are comparable to J-Bo's from a decade ago. Obviously, there's no guarantee Hamilton will have the career of Bouwmeester, but it gives some hope (rather than a random comparison to another top 10 defenseman pick).

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Bouwmeester has been a bit of a disappointment in the NHL. He came in as the most hyped defenseman prospect in almost a decade, he's never made a postseason All-Star team, he's never been a serious Norris candidate (let alone winning one), and he hasn't hit 10 goals or 30 points once since leaving Florida.

If there's a chance that Hamilton carves out that type of career, there's no way I'd extend an offer sheet his way at the expected cost.

And the case for Hamilton doesnt depend on stats.. no one is arguing that 40 pts at age 21 is all that meaningful. The case for or against Hamilton depends entirely on scouting.. some say he'll be a superstar, some, like Mayor Bee, think he will be more of a Phaneuf. Thats the entire debate.

To clear up, I don't think he'll be more of a Phaneuf; I was using a career comparison as a possibility. Peak early, have huge value, then get worse bit by bit over the ensuing years. Phaneuf at this point in his career was way ahead of Hamilton though.

 

[Fro]

To clear up, I don't think he'll be more of a Phaneuf; I was using a career comparison as a possibility. Peak early, have huge value, then get worse bit by bit over the ensuing years. Phaneuf at this point in his career was way ahead of Hamilton though.

not to turn this into a DP thread, but he was still good in Calgary...perhaps the Toronto effect and **** show there is part of his issue? DP may just need a change of scenery to get back to playing good hockey...

 

[KlichkoBro*]

lol, cute. Was there anything that was supposed to come out of this? Evaluate the player in question and don't try and make a irrelevant comparison. There are players that have scored more or less, as well as the same over the course of their first few years. Some worked, some didn't. There is nothing to be learned form it since they are different people.

I haven't seen anything other than gut feel on this guy. Dougie is a pretty good player and will be in the league for a while.

Are you mentally healthy? Cause you're the only one who's found in my post a reason to laugh out loud.

And the case for Hamilton doesnt depend on stats.. no one is arguing that 40 pts at age 21 is all that meaningful.

Since when is a young 42 point D man playing 21 minutes a night in 72 games coming off his break out season "unproven"?

Well, you've just called blahblah a "no one".

There were too many defensemen who's best year happened when they were 22-23 years old. Phaneuf and Barker are only two of many examples. Oleg Tverdovsky's best season was when he was 21 years old, Joni Pitkanen scored 88 points when he was 23... Their careers went downhill after that. And it's not about the stats only, they were regressing overall.

 

[KlichkoBro*]

not to turn this into a DP thread, but he was still good in Calgary...perhaps the Toronto effect and **** show there is part of his issue? DP may just need a change of scenery to get back to playing good hockey...

He went downhill in Calgary. I remember watching their games with a friend of mine who used to be a Flames fan and he was complaining about Phaneuf's regression all the time. Actually he got back on track when he was traded to Toronto.

 

[Mayor Bee]

not to turn this into a DP thread, but he was still good in Calgary...perhaps the Toronto effect and **** show there is part of his issue? DP may just need a change of scenery to get back to playing good hockey...

Sure he was still good; he put up big numbers despite being paired with either Adrian Aucoin, Anders Eriksson, Jim Vandermeer, or Adam Pardy, which is a miracle in itself.

I'd rather have Phaneuf than Hamilton. The assets laid out to get him in the first place are likely to be a lot less, and who knows much better he could play with an organization that isn't a gong show that's covered by a bunch of vultures in the media.

 

[Jackets Woodchuck]

The "happy medium" offer that one might expect is $7.3m/year for five years, which requires giving up next year's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Any more cash or term than that and 2017's 1st would also be included; much more than that and we hop straight to four 1sts.

As I've said elsewhere, I'd happily go for that, even though I think it extremely likely the Bruins would match. After all, Chara just this year started showing signs of regression and age, and not only is Hamilton his heir apparent, he's practically all they have in that direction. He's the sort of player you make room for, rather than move.

Do we lose the picks just for offer sheeting the guy or only if the Bruins don't match?

 

[major major]

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Bouwmeester has been a bit of a disappointment in the NHL. He came in as the most hyped defenseman prospect in almost a decade, he's never made a postseason All-Star team, he's never been a serious Norris candidate (let alone winning one), and he hasn't hit 10 goals or 30 points once since leaving Florida.

If there's a chance that Hamilton carves out that type of career, there's no way I'd extend an offer sheet his way at the expected cost.



To clear up, I don't think he'll be more of a Phaneuf; I was using a career comparison as a possibility. Peak early, have huge value, then get worse bit by bit over the ensuing years. Phaneuf at this point in his career was way ahead of Hamilton though.

I see Bouwmeester as close to Hamiltons floor. And that's comforting, because i don't think it would be "crippling" to have that kind of upgrade at $7m.

 

[Fro]

Sure he was still good; he put up big numbers despite being paired with either Adrian Aucoin, Anders Eriksson, Jim Vandermeer, or Adam Pardy, which is a miracle in itself.

I'd rather have Phaneuf than Hamilton. The assets laid out to get him in the first place are likely to be a lot less, and who knows much better he could play with an organization that isn't a gong show that's covered by a bunch of vultures in the media.

ok...i can live with that thought...hahahaha and yeah, those are some AWFUL partners, Murray is pretty much already better than all of them even with injuries sarcasm: if needbe)

 

[Mayor Bee]

Do we lose the picks just for offer sheeting the guy or only if the Bruins don't match?

Only if they don't match.

 

[Mayor Bee]

I see Bouwmeester as close to Hamiltons floor. And that's comforting, because i don't think it would be "crippling" to have that kind of upgrade at $7m.

If you're willing to take the gamble, more power to you. I wouldn't, but no one asked me; I simply offer my opinion everywhere and anywhere.

ok...i can live with that thought...hahahaha and yeah, those are some AWFUL partners, Murray is pretty much already better than all of them even with injuries sarcasm: if needbe)

My grandmother is a better defenseman than Jim Vandermeer, and she died six years ago.

 

[KlichkoBro*]

I see Bouwmeester as close to Hamiltons floor. And that's comforting, because i don't think it would be "crippling" to have that kind of upgrade at $7m.

Bouwmeester is Hamilton's floor? I would like to hear who you thought were Tverdovsky's, Pitkanen's and Barker's floor at the same age.
And what's so special about JBo?
26 years old Bouwmeester was traded for friking Jordal Leopold and 3rd round pick.

 

[Jackets Woodchuck]

Only if they don't match.

Thanks! That's what I figured, but I was worried that we might lose four first rounders for nothing.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Bouwmeester is Hamilton's floor? I would like to hear who you thought were Tverdovsky's, Pitkanen's and Barker's floor at the same age.
And what's so special about JBo?
26 years old Bouwmeester was traded for friking Jordal Leopold and 3rd round pick.

Both Bouwmeester and Leopold were pending UFAs; this was one of the first "UFA rights" deals that was made.

Bouwmeester had already stated his refusal to re-sign with Florida, so they tried to salvage something out of it rather than lose him for nothing a week later.

 

[major major]

Bouwmeester is Hamilton's floor? I would like to hear who you thought were Tverdovsky's, Pitkanen's and Barker's floor at the same age.
And what's so special about JBo?
26 years old Bouwmeester was traded for friking Jordal Leopold and 3rd round pick.

First of all, the case for Dougie doesn't depend on points at age, so i don't know where you re going with this.

Barker, despite his draft pedigree, was always considered a specialist.

And the other D, despite being disapointments, all would have made nice upgrades to our team.

 

[KlichkoBro*]

Both Bouwmeester and Leopold were pending UFAs; this was one of the first "UFA rights" deals that was made.

Bouwmeester had already stated his refusal to re-sign with Florida, so they tried to salvage something out of it rather than lose him for nothing a week later.

I didn't know that. I thought that he shouldn't have been UFA at 26. But JBo is 32 years old now and he still hasn't won a single playoffs series. He's been for 3 years on the good St.Louis team, but it doesn't seem like he's made them any better.

 

[major major]

I didn't know that. I thought that he shouldn't have been UFA at 26. But JBo is 32 years old now and he still hasn't won a single playoffs series. He's been for 3 years on the good St.Louis team, but it doesn't seem like he's made them any better.

At this point jbo is not a good dman, but there's no question he was for a solid 10 years.

 

[KlichkoBro*]

First of all, the case for Dougie doesn't depend on points at age, so i don't know where you re going with this.

Barker, despite his draft pedigree, was always considered a specialist.

And the other D, despite being disapointments, all would have made nice upgrades to our team.

But we're not looking for just an upgrade, I thought we're looking for a legit 1st pairing defenseman who would make us a contender! And neither of them would have done it.

What your belief about Hamilton is based on then? Cause he's nowhere near JBo defensively. He makes stupid plays in his own zone time after time. So you're confident that he will improve. I just don't see any base to it. and I still think that throwing a huge package and pile of money for him would be worse than Gaborik's trades.

 

[Mayor Bee]

But we're not looking for just an upgrade, I thought we're looking for a legit 1st pairing defenseman who would make us a contender! And neither of them would have done it.

What your belief about Hamilton is based on then? Cause he's nowhere near JBo defensively. He makes stupid plays in his own zone time after time. So you're confident that he will improve. I just don't see any base to it. and I still think that throwing a huge package and pile of money for him would be worse than Gaborik's trades.

I'm with you. Hamilton looks like a converted forward who never figured out what he's supposed to do in his own zone.

If Wisniewski was "overpaid" to bring offense but needed to be paired with someone to cover his own zone deficiencies, how much greater would it be with Hamilton?

 

[Viqsi]

I'm sure this will convince absolutely nobody, but... http://nhlnumbers.com/2015/6/11/5-things-the-value-of-dougie-hamilton

 

[major major]

I'm with you. Hamilton looks like a converted forward who never figured out what he's supposed to do in his own zone.

If Wisniewski was "overpaid" to bring offense but needed to be paired with someone to cover his own zone deficiencies, how much greater would it be with Hamilton?

Contrary to popular belief, wiz's d zone limitations had more to do with physical limitations than mental errors. He had to be paired with d who could make up for his mobility, not his giveaways.

Perhaps someone can make a good case against Hamilton based on poor defense, but it won't be a mobility issue, and video of the odd giveaway doesn't tell you much about overall d quality.