Speculation: Colton Parayko's next contract

[Spektre]

Ok so we guessed on Tarasenko:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1901799&highlight=tarasenko

I was right on at 7.5/yr and missed the year by 1.


We guessed on Schwartz:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2052337&highlight=schwartz

I was off by 100k and 2 years.


So what is Parayko going to get?

I don't care if we have to pay another team to take Lehtera he has to be moved and then sign Parayko long term.

I don't think Army believes in 8 year deals so my guess is Parayko gets 7 years @ $6,125,000/yr.


Edit 6/9:

With Ghost getting 6 years @ 4.5/yr I don't think it'll cost 6.125. Re-guessing 6 years @ 5,125,000/yr.

Click to read more...

 

[Oberyn]

6 years @ $5.65 AAV

 

[Linkens Mastery]

8yx6m

 

[AVictoryDive]

He'll get Toews are Kane money the way people around here talk him up haha. Nah, I think a 6-7 year deal between 5.5-6mil a year.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

6yrs @ 5.5mil or 8yrs @ 6.25mil

 

[KingBran]

If Army is still the GM I smell bridge contract at about 2 years 4.5m. A little high for an Army bridge contract but only 2 years.

 

[Majorityof1]

What I want: 8 x $6
What I think actually happens: 6 x $5.5 and we trade him to Edmonton in 5 years for a late first and some guy Lebrun doesn't know enough about to get his name right in the trade tweet.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I am expecting 6 x 6. I don't think a team has enough incentive to try an 8y deal on any player, unless you are trying to entice your elite UFA to re-sign with you.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

7 x 5.85

 

[Em etah Eh]

6 x 5.55

 

[MissouriMook]

I think it is about 50/50 that Army bridges him, and I think that deal ends up at 2 years, $6.25M ($3.125M AAV). I don't see him getting more than 6 years if they buy UFA years, because GMs these days don't seem to want to get backed into a corner deciding on a long-term deal on a player that is 31-32 years old. In that case I would think 6 years, $34.5M ($5.75M AAV) on a deal that takes him to 30 years of age (he'll turn 24 in May).

 

[542365]

Hoping for 7x5.5. He deserves more, but there are comps in that range.

 

[Brian39]

I hope we don't go 6 years. Tarasenko has 6 years left and I'd like to avoid both becoming UFA in the same summer. I'd like to see 7 or 8 years at around $6 mil per year.

 

[Majorityof1]

I hope we don't go 6 years. Tarasenko has 6 years left and I'd like to avoid both becoming UFA in the same summer. I'd like to see 7 or 8 years at around $6 mil per year.

Well, signing them both for 6 years gives you your window. If you don't win it all in 5 years, trade them all and rebuild in the 6th.

 

[carter333167]

7-8 years if Armstrong has any sense whatsoever. Parayko may only want to go 6 but, if he is willing to do 7-8, you do it all day long.

A 7-8 year deal will probably be in the 6.0-6.5 million range. Parayko only has three RFA years remaining and has arbitration rights which makes him a bit different than some of the 7 year, 5.5ish deals signed in the last few years (which typically were 4 RFA year deals and no arbitration rights scenarios).

A bridge would be a huge blunder and risks losing him in three years to UFA. We shouldn't give multi-year, team controlled years unless we are getting UFA years in return. If Armstrong gave him a two year bridge, and Parayko then decided he wanted to test UFA, he could simply file for arbitration on the third year salary and walk to UFA after he plays the third year. The Blues would have no leverage or meaningful response (which is why elite young players don't get bridged to within a year of RFA). We have some leverage now with three RFA years remaining....use it to get a 6-8 year deal.

 

[Brian39]

7-8 years if Armstrong has any sense whatsoever. Parayko may only want to go 6 but, if he is willing to do 7-8, you do it all day long.

A 7-8 year deal will probably be in the 6.0-6.5 million range. Parayko only has three RFA years remaining and has arbitration rights which makes him a bit different than some of the 7 year, 5.5ish deals signed in the last few years (which typically were 4 RFA year deals and no arbitration rights scenarios).

A bridge would be a huge blunder and risks losing him in three years to UFA. We shouldn't give multi-year, team controlled years unless we are getting UFA years in return. If Armstrong gave him a two year bridge, and Parayko then decided he wanted to test UFA, he could simply file for arbitration on the third year salary and walk to UFA after he plays the third year. The Blues would have no leverage or meaningful response (which is why elite young players don't get bridged to within a year of RFA). We have some leverage now with three RFA years remaining....use it to get a 6-8 year deal.

I agree with every word of this post and made a similar (albeit more snarky) post over on the asylum.

 

[Brian39]

Well, signing them both for 6 years gives you your window. If you don't win it all in 5 years, trade them all and rebuild in the 6th.

A 7 or 8 year deal gives you the same window with both of them but ensures that the value returned in a Parayko trade is significantly higher if we decide to rebuild after 5 years.

 

[Majorityof1]

A 7 or 8 year deal gives you the same window with both of them but ensures that the value returned in a Parayko trade is significantly higher if we decide to rebuild after 5 years.

True, and I agree. I said I wanted 8 years. 7 would be far better than 6 as well.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I'm betting he gets signed for 6Mx6, but I'm hoping that we'll get lucky with 6Mx8. I don't really see much incentive for Parayko to do either though, and he'll likely push for a bridge deal of 4Mx2.

 

[joshyhockey26]

6x6. Like many have already said haha

 

[Mike Liut]

If we went 6 yrs, is he an UFA after it?

 

[RORbacon]

If we went 6 yrs, is he an UFA after it?

Yes. IIRC, he has three RFA years left.

 

[simon IC]

7-8 years if Armstrong has any sense whatsoever. Parayko may only want to go 6 but, if he is willing to do 7-8, you do it all day long.

A 7-8 year deal will probably be in the 6.0-6.5 million range. Parayko only has three RFA years remaining and has arbitration rights which makes him a bit different than some of the 7 year, 5.5ish deals signed in the last few years (which typically were 4 RFA year deals and no arbitration rights scenarios).

A bridge would be a huge blunder and risks losing him in three years to UFA. We shouldn't give multi-year, team controlled years unless we are getting UFA years in return. If Armstrong gave him a two year bridge, and Parayko then decided he wanted to test UFA, he could simply file for arbitration on the third year salary and walk to UFA after he plays the third year. The Blues would have no leverage or meaningful response (which is why elite young players don't get bridged to within a year of RFA). We have some leverage now with three RFA years remaining....use it to get a 6-8 year deal.

Nobody here has mentioned a one year bridge. That would possibly buy a year of UFA, give Armstrong a year to deal with other contracts, (Lehtera), and removes the possibility of the arbitration scenario. Is this a possibility?

 

[carter333167]

I'm betting he gets signed for 6Mx6, but I'm hoping that we'll get lucky with 6Mx8. I don't really see much incentive for Parayko to do either though, and he'll likely push for a bridge deal of 4Mx2.

If Parayko really did refuse to trade any UFA years for RFA years (it doesn;t make sense that he would refuse to do so unless he just isn't sold on St. Louis), then the response is, "Fine, then you can have a one year deal, followed by another one year deal, followed by another one year deal. If you suffer a big injury in the meantime, then you will be bearing the risk."

To be sure, I think he will sign a long term deal (nothing about what we read suggests that dislikes St. Louis), but I'm playing out the hypothetical of him refusing to sell UFA years that you mentioned. The Blues have zero incentive to do multi-year unless he is giving up UFA years.

 

[Brian39]

Nobody here has mentioned a one year bridge. That would possibly buy a year of UFA, give Armstrong a year to deal with other contracts, (Lehtera), and removes the possibility of the arbitration scenario. Is this a possibility?

It is a possibility. I think it is actually the best option under 5 years. After a 1 year deal, Parayko could still go to arbitration. However, if he did, we would have the option of the arbitration award being a 1 or 2 year contract. We would almost certainly choose 1 year, because he would still be an RFA at the end of that contract. This isn't ideal, but it is better than him being a UFA at the end of that contract.

My order of preference for term is 8, 7, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 3 years. I go back and forth between 5 and 6 year deals. 6 is an extra year, but it also makes him a UFA at the same time as Tarasenko.

This is a long, roundabout way of saying I hope we do 8 or 7 years at $6.25 mil per year.