Clutch Goalies (2004)

Discussion in 'By The Numbers' started by Hockey Outsider, Jan 10, 2006.

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  1. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    There are a number of statistics used to evaluate clutch scorers, such as game-winning goals, third-period points, etc. (Whether these are valid stats or not is another topic). As far as I know, there has been no research done about clutch goalie stats. So I calculated which goalies had the best save percentage in "clutch situations" in 2004. I've defined clutch situations are third period in overtime in ties or one-goal games. (I can change this definition if anybody is truly curious).

    Results (min 100 shots faced):

    Goalie Shot? Goal? Sv%
    KIPRUSOFF_CGY 242 11 95.5%
    THIBAULT_CHI 109 5 95.4%
    BELFOUR_TOR 248 13 94.8%
    TOSKALA_SJS 148 8 94.6%
    RAYCROFT_BOS 384 22 94.3%
    ROLOSON_MIN 325 20 93.8%
    DIPIETRO_NYI 216 14 93.5%
    GERBER_ANA 182 12 93.4%
    LUONGO_FLA 620 43 93.1%
    TURCO_DAL 331 23 93.1%
    NORONEN_BUF 143 10 93.0%
    GARON_MTL 114 8 93.0%
    LEGACE_DET 142 10 93.0%
    AEBISCHER_COL 354 25 92.9%
    CONKLIN_EDM 203 15 92.6%
    VOKOUN_NAS 403 31 92.3%
    ESCHE_PHI 178 14 92.1%
    CARON_PIT 215 17 92.1%
    AUBIN_PIT 100 8 92.0%
    BIRON_BUF 287 23 92.0%
    BURKE_PHO 235 19 91.9%
    THEODORE_MTL 344 28 91.9%
    SAUVE_COL 122 10 91.8%
    GRAHAME_TBL 134 11 91.8%
    BOUCHER_PHO 255 21 91.8%
    FERNANDEZ_MIN 229 19 91.7%
    NABOKOV_SJS 323 27 91.6%
    NURMINEN_ATL 400 34 91.5%
    GIGUERE_ANA 364 31 91.5%
    DENIS_CBJ 469 40 91.5%
    CLOUTIER_VAN 302 26 91.4%
    HUET_LAK 245 22 91.0%
    POTVIN_BOS 155 14 91.0%
    WEEKES_CAR 370 34 90.8%
    Total 14359 1337 90.7%
    CECHMANEK_LAK 253 24 90.5%
    SNOW_NYI 199 19 90.5%
    KOLZIG_WAS 385 37 90.4%
    MARKKANEN_NYR 104 10 90.4%
    HACKETT_PHI 172 17 90.1%
    MCLENNAN_CGY 101 10 90.1%
    JOSEPH_DET 161 16 90.1%
    KHABIBULIN_TBL 319 33 89.7%
    BRODEUR_NJD 381 40 89.5%
    SALO_EDM 190 20 89.5%
    LALIME_OTT 261 28 89.3%
    OSGOOD_STL 397 43 89.2%
    LEIGHTON_CHI 229 27 88.2%
    PRUSEK_OTT 117 14 88.0%
    DUNHAM_NYR 275 33 88.0%
    FLEURY_PIT 142 19 86.6%

    Miika Kiprusoff tops this list. This doesn't surprise me based on what I've seen the past two seasons. Kiprusoff's ability to shut down opponents in key situations is especially important since Calgary relies on him so heavily.

    Things get interesting at the bottom of the list. There are some goalies that have the reputation of being chokers (Lalime, Salo, and some put Joseph in this category as well), but there are two allegedly clutch goalies (Brodeur and Khabibulin). This raises the question: are their reputations unjustified? Are there limitations in the data (ie small sample size, arbtirary definition of clutch situations)? Perhaps they didn't play like clutch goalies in the 2004 regular season, but Brodeur surely has done so earlier in his career, and perhaps Khabibulin just raised his game during the playoffs.

    (Some people say that clutch regular season play is meaningless, and that the playoffs are all that matter. They have a point. I'm working on the 2004 playoff data. It will be interesting to see how that turns out)

    Overall, I'm not entirely sure if this list is meaningful, or if it's statistical mumbo-jumbo. What do you think?
     
  2. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Brodeur's sv% suffers due to the fact that teams visiting New Jersey often have their shot totals under counted.

    It makes the team defense look better, but it hurts Marty's stats. Opposing teams seem to get shortchanged 3-5 shots a night. If you figure Brodeur starts 35 home games a year he gets shortchanged out of about 140 or so saves a year.
     
  3. Butchered

    Butchered I'm with Kuch

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    Khabi in the last playoffs. Damn near every must win was won because of his play alone, not to mention keeping the lead in the final 5-6 minutes of the final game 7 while pretty much facing the Calgary team on his own.
     
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