Prospect Info: CHL, NCAA & European Prospects Thread | Part VIII

[NJDevs26]

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[BomaLightDevils]

Anyone thinking Brandon baddock have a chance to be a 4 line dirty checking center. He seems to be very popular by whl standards and he supposed to be a wrecking ball that can shut oppositions scoring line down.

Does he get a contract or is he to slow for the way Hynes/kowalsky wants to play. I like he's game and think he could really help lots of the young guys coming to the AHL the next couple of years.

 

[OmNomNom]

i could see him performing at the AHL level. added bonus, they had him on PK a lot last night, pressing the points. it seems they can rely on him in those situations

 

[Devils Dominion]

Anyone thinking Brandon baddock have a chance to be a 4 line dirty checking center. He seems to be very popular by whl standards and he supposed to be a wrecking ball that can shut oppositions scoring line down.

Does he get a contract or is he to slow for the way Hynes/kowalsky wants to play. I like he's game and think he could really help lots of the young guys coming to the AHL the next couple of years.

I don't think he has a chance to be a NHL player aside from a random call up for a game to drop the gloves.

He is wayyyy too slow for the NHL and not enough skill or tangibles.

Can he make Albany next Fall?
Possibly, but he would have to supplant a popular veteran like P3L.
And while Baddock is probably more skilled than Pierre, Leblond is a much better skater and he brings a fatherly figure presence to the locker room.

He's been the perfect watchdog on & off the ice for the young Albany players this season.

 

[BomaLightDevils]

I don't think he has a chance to be a NHL player aside from a random call up for a game to drop the gloves.

He is wayyyy too slow for the NHL and not enough skill or tangibles.

Can he make Albany next Fall?
Possibly, but he would have to supplant a popular veteran like P3L.
And while Baddock is probably more skilled than Pierre, Leblond is a much better skater and he brings a fatherly figure presence to the locker room.

He's been the perfect watchdog on & off the ice for the young Albany players this season.

Having actually watch him play a whole game so didn't know he was "that" slow.

Does he get a contract because if not don't you think Toronto will give him one. He's Contes and Lou's pick and they do love them big, nasty and slow

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Anyone thinking Brandon baddock have a chance to be a 4 line dirty checking center. He seems to be very popular by whl standards and he supposed to be a wrecking ball that can shut oppositions scoring line down.

Does he get a contract or is he to slow for the way Hynes/kowalsky wants to play. I like he's game and think he could really help lots of the young guys coming to the AHL the next couple of years.

Extremely doubtful.

Players with that kind of junior league production rarely ever make it to the NHL.

Off the top of my head, some prototypical fourth line checking centers include Jay McClement, Greg Campbell, Kyle Brodziak, Matt Hendricks, Boyd Gordon. All these guys were PPG players in juniors/college.

To be at 0.50 to 0.60 PPG in your fourth WHL season is pretty bad. One caveat is that Baddock's team is not the best offensively, however the fact that he's third among forwards in points shows that he clearly gets opportunities to score and isn't buried on the depth chart (like some say Quenneville was last season).

 

[thethinglonger]

I think Baddock has the potential to be a 4th line pain in the ass player, but I'm not sure. He does some real good things and is a pretty good skater, albeit slow...I'm wondering what it will be like for him when he's playing in a league where he's not the biggest guy on the ice and can just bulldoze over everybody

 

[thethinglonger]

So there's this website called the Projection Project. It basically compiles all the tangible stats and information for a player (draft pick, height, weight, scoring, etc.) and compares it on a database with other players and historical picks. It's a really raw way of looking at players, but it's really interesting and it's purely a statistical look and not an eye-test.

The creator of the site made a post in the Prospects board about it and ran some tests on request. Zacha's came out to this

PAVEL ZACHA

• DY: 42% chance of success
• DY-DY+1: 60% Chance of success
• Most likely level reached: Unknown (equal distribution of cohorts across 5 tiers [elite, 1st line, 2nd line, 3rd, 4th]
• Closest Player comps: Ryan Getzlaf (-1inch, =NHLE), Jordan Caron (-1 inch, -1NHLE) Radek Smolenik (-1inch, -1 NHLE)

I know I'm probably throwing a live grenade into the hype, but Zacha's numbers during his draft-eligible and draft year+1 seasons have been pretty similar to Getzlaf's. There's still a risk in his development, but an 18% jump in chance of success is great because that's just from a statistical sense and not including the eye-test.

You can look at the whole website and look players and prospects up here:

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/

 

[OmNomNom]

So there's this website called the Projection Project. It basically compiles all the tangible stats and information for a player (draft pick, height, weight, scoring, etc.) and compares it on a database with other players and historical picks. It's a really raw way of looking at players, but it's really interesting and it's purely a statistical look and not an eye-test.

The creator of the site made a post in the Prospects board about it and ran some tests on request. Zacha's came out to this



I know I'm probably throwing a live grenade into the hype, but Zacha's numbers during his draft-eligible and draft year+1 seasons have been pretty similar to Getzlaf's. There's still a risk in his development, but an 18% jump in chance of success is great because that's just from a statistical sense and not including the eye-test.

You can look at the whole website and look players and prospects up here:

http://www.theprojectionproject.com/

fun site to browse. i like the look of blake speers though they project santini and coleman to bust by a large percentage...

 

[Cheddabombs]

fun site to browse. i like the look of blake speers though they project santini and coleman to bust by a large percentage...

Just curious, why do they project Santini to bust? Is the system based on points? Because that would seem awfully misguiding for a defensive defenseman like Santini

 

[thethinglonger]

Just curious, why do they project Santini to bust? Is the system based on points? Because that would seem awfully misguiding for a defensive defenseman like Santini

Exactly. It just looks at points and other tangibles like size and draft position. It doesn't take into account the eye-test or playing styles, so a defensive defenseman like Santini isn't going to be viewed very highly

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Just curious, why do they project Santini to bust? Is the system based on points? Because that would seem awfully misguiding for a defensive defenseman like Santini

It's definitely not a great tool to evaluate defensive defensemen.

However, an important point to note is that a lot of defensive defenseman in the NHL were actually good scorers in juniors/college (off the top of my head - Karl Alzner, Willie Mitchell, Robyn Regehr, Chris Phillips, Jason Smith, etc.).

Players who are drafted as pure defensive defenseman from juniors/college have a higher bust rate than one might think. Same goes for forwards. Scoring points in juniors/college reveals basic skating, passing, and hockey sense skills that are important for succeeding in the NHL, even if the player doesn't end up as a scorer in the NHL.

The upshot with Santini is that he probably does have some untapped offensive skill that hasn't been revealed because he doesn't get powerplay time. Powerplay time is a huge determinant of points for defenseman, since they rely so much on secondary assists to accrue points.

I've made these comparisons numerous times, but BC's history provides some great comps for Santini: Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi and Nick Petrecki. They all profiled as similar defenseman and basically represent the spectrum of success to failure for Santini.

 

[Cheddabombs]

It's definitely not a great tool to evaluate defensive defensemen.

However, an important point to note is that a lot of defensive defenseman in the NHL were actually good scorers in juniors/college (off the top of my head - Karl Alzner, Willie Mitchell, Robyn Regehr, Chris Phillips, Jason Smith, etc.).

Players who are drafted as pure defensive defenseman from juniors/college have a higher bust rate than one might think. Same goes for forwards. Scoring points in juniors/college reveals basic skating, passing, and hockey sense skills that are important for succeeding in the NHL, even if the player doesn't end up as a scorer in the NHL.

The upshot with Santini is that he probably does have some untapped offensive skill that hasn't been revealed because he doesn't get powerplay time. Powerplay time is a huge determinant of points for defenseman, since they rely so much on secondary assists to accrue points.

I've made these comparisons numerous times, but BC's history provides some great comps for Santini: Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi and Nick Petrecki. They all profiled as similar defenseman and basically represent the spectrum of success to failure for Santini.

No doubt about it, I agree with you. Guys who struggle to put up much of anything in juniors/college and rely solely on their defensive play are probably less likely to translate to the NHL. But the leading defenseman on BC only had 7 more points than Santini, and like you said Santini doesn't play on the powerplay and he isn't exactly touted to be that offensive force anyway.

It's his ruggedness and style of play that I'm excited about, and something we sorely lack. That's why I like when Hulk is in the lineup because he can bring a bit of that, he just isn't that good at other parts of the game whereas Santini is more promising in those aspects. But that kind of stuff doesn't show on the scoresheet and maybe it's a bit overvalued at times but it's still something we need to add.

 

[VoidCreature]

No doubt about it, I agree with you. Guys who struggle to put up much of anything in juniors/college and rely solely on their defensive play are probably less likely to translate to the NHL. But the leading defenseman on BC only had 7 more points than Santini, and like you said Santini doesn't play on the powerplay and he isn't exactly touted to be that offensive force anyway.

It's his ruggedness and style of play that I'm excited about, and something we sorely lack. That's why I like when Hulk is in the lineup because he can bring a bit of that, he just isn't that good at other parts of the game whereas Santini is more promising in those aspects. But that kind of stuff doesn't show on the scoresheet and maybe it's a bit overvalued at times but it's still something we need to add.

The Greyhounds radio guys just interviewed Zacha between the periods. They asked him what his favorite memory from his Sarnia career has been so far, and he mentioned when they beat Eerie in the first game of their playoff series last year as his high point. Talked a lot about team concept and winning as a group.

Every time I've heard him talk I've been real impressed by how upbeat and goal-oriented he is. No points for him yet tonight, but he's been skating real well. Game is tied at 1 going into the second.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I can see why a site like that would consider Santini as a high bust candidate.

Nature of what kind of player he is and his role on his team doesn't leave you with the basic indicators that predict future success.

He more than a lot of our prospects would need to be watched every game to get a good indication of what he can become.

 

[VoidCreature]

Zacha scores. 2-1 Sarnia.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Zacha turned it the **** on this first round.

 

[thethinglonger]

Zacha looks great so far. His goal was tucking in a loose puck

 

[thethinglonger]

 

[Emperoreddy]

Konecny Who? It's the Paval Zacha show now.

 

[Cheddabombs]

The Greyhounds radio guys just interviewed Zacha between the periods. They asked him what his favorite memory from his Sarnia career has been so far, and he mentioned when they beat Eerie in the first game of their playoff series last year as his high point. Talked a lot about team concept and winning as a group.

Every time I've heard him talk I've been real impressed by how upbeat and goal-oriented he is. No points for him yet tonight, but he's been skating real well. Game is tied at 1 going into the second.

I remember seeing all his interviews last season and being pleasantly surprised with how excited he was to be here. I like his attitude, well at least how he portrays himself in interviews.

And nice to see him continue his scoring streak tonight. Speers scored as well, so that's great

 

[Devils Dominion]

Konecny injured?

 

[Emperoreddy]

Konecny injured?

He isn't our prospect so who cares. OUR prospect is lighting it up right now.

 

[thethinglonger]

Konecny injured?

Injured during Game 2. Apparently went to Philly to see a shoulder specialist and talk with the Flyers. He also apparently got a couple shots of cortizone and won't get surgery on it. He might even be back with the team for Game 5

 

[Cheddabombs]

3 Devils prospects scored in the that game with White getting on the board now too, and Speers had an assist on it. That's neat