OT: CFL: Ottawa Redblacks

[operasen]

Last group of signings (18th) was heavy on US DBs and Receivers. Plus LB and OL. Tells me they are really looking for young difference makers at Receiver and DB but also a solid LT and one more LB. I’m on board with that thought process. the other pieces seem to becoming together.
Be interesting who they target at No 6 and No 10 in the Draft.

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[Larionov]

Last group of signings (18th) was heavy on US DBs and Receivers. Plus LB and OL. Tells me they are really looking for young difference makers at Receiver and DB but also a solid LT and one more LB. I’m on board with that thought process. the other pieces seem to becoming together.
Be interesting who they target at No 6 and No 10 in the Draft.

CFL draft is especially weird this year, as the two best Canadian born players are going to be high NFL picks. Therefore, it would be a complete waste of a pick to take either of them early. It means that CFL teams are left drafting guys who they believe will actually be in their camp in May.

Traditionally the CFL draft is where you go get offensive linemen and special teams depth. REDBLACKS are already deep in Canadian offensive linemen, and in fact may end up having to cut a pretty good one in camp this year. Therefore, I expect them to go after receivers in this one, seeing if they can find Sinopoli's successor. (Nate Behar auditioned for that role last year, and flamed out.)

 

[operasen]

So what are we looking at? Shorter season? No byes? Still time but getting tighter now.

 

[Larionov]

So what are we looking at? Shorter season? No byes? Still time but getting tighter now.

Exhibition games will go for sure, along with a couple of regular season games. They can also push the Grey Cup back a week, as it was scheduled to be a week early this year - that's an easy way to buy a week. I'm guessing on a 16 game season starting in early July...

 

[salomonster]

Less byes.
Later GC (where is should be to begin with IMO).

 

[mianjo]

Talk of a 8 game schedule, play every team once.

 

[Daffy]

Jalen Saunders is a huge add for this offense.

 

[Larionov]

Saunders probably came cheap as well - he's coming off a serious knee injury, so he couldn't drive a hard bargain. It's a risk, but if he returns to pre-injury form he'll be a steal.

Whether or not we get live sports back is going to be a huge fight. The CFL can't live without fans in the stands - it doesn't survive as a TV only league. Medical Health Officers are going to resist allowing big public gatherings, but at some point public and political pressure will win out, especially if it's already happening in the U.S. without problem.

 

[Sensung]

Saunders probably came cheap as well - he's coming off a serious knee injury, so he couldn't drive a hard bargain. It's a risk, but if he returns to pre-injury form he'll be a steal.

Whether or not we get live sports back is going to be a huge fight. The CFL can't live without fans in the stands - it doesn't survive as a TV only league. Medical Health Officers are going to resist allowing big public gatherings, but at some point public and political pressure will win out, especially if it's already happening in the U.S. without problem.

Not sure there is any basis for the "without problem" claim.

We'll have a much better idea in the coming weeks and months od the impact of those decisions.

The history from 1918 does not bode well for opening things up too early.

 

[Larionov]

Not sure there is any basis for the "without problem" claim.

Similarly, I'm not sure if there is any basis for the "second wave" claims, other than the history from a century ago from a different virus.

Related, I note that the "second wave" has now become the new "two weeks". When the predicted "surge" never materialized, the Doomers simply shifted to warning of a "second wave", or even "multiple waves". The truth is that the death rate from COVID-19 continues to drop - as more testing is done, the death rate is now heading down to the 0.1-0.2% range. The median age of death is 84, and in excess of 90% of those dying had at least one comorbidity. Over 80% had two or more cormorbidities. This is a serious virus that requires a serious response, but quarantining the healthy and shutting down our economy and everyday life, also causing significant damage to education and health in the process, no longer looks like a rational policy response in my view.

 

[operasen]

Going to miss Jeff Hunt. He really stepped up for two decades + for this city.

Really hope CFL can get something done so we don't lose the league. Halifax must be quite worried as well.

 

[Larionov]

The CFL, much like the NHL, is playing a waiting game. Basically, they are waiting for infections to drop to the point where governments are going to feel comfortable in allowing crowds at games, concerts, etc. It's a slow process - the public is just now warming up to the notion of going back out to a restaurant in a couple of weeks, so concerts and stadiums will be a while, and there is no chance that a politician wants to get too far out front of public opinion or advice from their Medical Health Officers.

I've got early July as a rough estimate for when the first provincial Premier might be willing to at least publicly discuss this possibility. That's seven weeks from now, so plenty will change between now and then. I don't think crowds will be allowed back then, but at least they might be willing to signal that they might allow it by September 1 if all goes well. That's what the CFL would need to squeeze in a half season plus playoffs. (Say, 10 regular season games plus playoffs.) It's certainly no guarantee, but I don't think that anyone is willing to throw in the towel on the 2020 season quite yet...

 

[Stylizer1]

The CFL, much like the NHL, is playing a waiting game. Basically, they are waiting for infections to drop to the point where governments are going to feel comfortable in allowing crowds at games, concerts, etc. It's a slow process - the public is just now warming up to the notion of going back out to a restaurant in a couple of weeks, so concerts and stadiums will be a while, and there is no chance that a politician wants to get too far out front of public opinion or advice from their Medical Health Officers.

I've got early July as a rough estimate for when the first provincial Premier might be willing to at least publicly discuss this possibility. That's seven weeks from now, so plenty will change between now and then. I don't think crowds will be allowed back then, but at least they might be willing to signal that they might allow it by September 1 if all goes well. That's what the CFL would need to squeeze in a half season plus playoffs. (Say, 10 regular season games plus playoffs.) It's certainly no guarantee, but I don't think that anyone is willing to throw in the towel on the 2020 season quite yet...

The CFL can't afford to play half a season with half the crowd. The CFL needs to wait for the big leagues to iron things out and get the public's confidence back first.

 

[Larionov]

Baseball will go first, which will be helpful. They'll be starting July 4, and they'll have live crowds in Arizona and Florida at least at the beginning, with probably others joining in as the summer rolls on. Good point on the public confidence - it's going to be a slow process, but it will get there eventually.

 

[operasen]

Hoping we get some positive opening news soon. If July is a target then information needs to flow soon. Maybe training camp games will count a point this year just to get more time into the schedule.

 

[Larionov]

Today marked a pretty important day with Ontario moving to Stage 2 coming Friday (a week later for the GTA). It's also worth noting that the numbers are improving in Ontario and Quebec, finally catching up with the drops in the rest of the country.

Finally, the World Health Organization said that asymptomatic people are not considered to be a major source of spread - in fact, WHO now says that this kind of spread is "extremely rare". This is huge because this was exactly the kind of spread that people worried about for large public gatherings. As it turns out, this virus is largely spread the old fashioned way, by people who are already having symptoms. Now that we are no longer chasing ghosts, it makes focusing on stopping the spread much easier.

I stand by what I said a while back - come early July, if numbers keep improving, you'll see the first politician talk about allowing large public gatherings again. There will be all kinds of caveats (wellness checks and vats of hand sanitizer at the door, etc.), but the public desire for a return to normalcy is going to grow by the day now, bit by bit...

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Finally, the World Health Organization said that asymptomatic people are not considered to be a major source of spread - in fact, WHO now says that this kind of spread is "extremely rare". This is huge because this was exactly the kind of spread that people worried about for large public gatherings. As it turns out, this virus is largely spread the old fashioned way, by people who are already having symptoms. Now that we are no longer chasing ghosts, it makes focusing on stopping the spread much easier.

Just a heads up, they’ve since walked that back

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/who-covid-19-asymptomatic-spread-1.5604353

they aren’t saying anything conclusively because it’s really hard to track. But I wouldn’t rule out asymptomatic spread at this point.

"Asymptomatic spread is a dumpster fire in terms of data."

 

[operasen]

Its unfortunate, but I think the bell has tolled on this season. No plans announced and its already almost July. Starting in September would just give a half season potential. Playoffs in December? Cup Christmas Day? Any longer delay and I think we have to pass.

 

[Larionov]

Its unfortunate, but I think the bell has tolled on this season. No plans announced and its already almost July. Starting in September would just give a half season potential. Playoffs in December? Cup Christmas Day? Any longer delay and I think we have to pass.

I love the CFL and would really love for them to be able to save the season, but the hour is growing pretty dark. I think they have about three more weeks or so - if there is no firm plan in place by the third week in July they'll have to call it. The problem is getting approval for fans in the stands. Could you see a scenario in Canada when they will allow fans back at games by early September? Maybe, but the CFL needs a good six to seven weeks to make plans for a quick training camp, get players here, etc., which means they need a decision in July. Allowing large public gatherings, even outdoors, is probably still going to be a tough sell a month from now. (I have totally dismissed the "hub city" model for the CFL - this league needs butts in the seats to make the economics work.)

 

[thinkwild]

Some of those large outdoor protests in Minny and New York did have a lot of mask wearing. New York is now being complimented for getting its numbers right down. Minny was also saying they didnt see the effect they were expecting yet. Maybe fans spread out, mask wearing, and in outdoor stadiums could work. I havent seen any data yet. The New Zealand rugby season is going ahead now with full stadiums. If we can get those numbers in Canada right down soon maybe there's hope here too.

 

[operasen]

This must really be an eye opener in Halifax.

 

[Larionov]

This must really be an eye opener in Halifax.

Yeah, I think the Atlantic expansion bid just got put in the deep freeze by COVID...

 

[ColinM]

Yeah, I think the Atlantic expansion bid just got put in the deep freeze by COVID...

Pretty much. Our city is broke so I can't see someone raising the money for a stadium. We'll do well to have Touchdown Atlantic in the future.

 

[DueDiligence]

The CFL is done as we know it. Regardless if they play games this year revenue will be so low many teams will be in trouble. All the Eastern teams plus BC might just pack it in unless there is massive government help.

 

[Fandlauer]

The CFL is done as we know it. Regardless if they play games this year revenue will be so low many teams will be in trouble. All the Eastern teams plus BC might just pack it in unless there is massive government help.

There will be. There won't be empty stadiums across the country wasting away.