Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Habs accept Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), 2022 1st, 2022 3rd [Part II]

[Svechhammer]

Just cause you and others try to explain some narrative, it don't make others dumb if they disagree with your context or justification.

How about you try to explain it all over again? Maybe the 50th time might convince the world to think like you do?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Oh I totally get it for the Canes.

It's the old Massively overpay for a mediocre player at a position you don't need on a one year contract so he he accepts to play for you long-term on a cheap deal kind of gambit. Classic.

You guys are playing 6D chess down there.

I think people are trying to make too much out of it. As a Canes fan, I wasn't a fan of the move, but to me, it's simple.
- They wanted one more top 9 forward.
- They tried to get one in UFA and failed.
- They liked Kotkaniemi's skillset so they tried to trade for him.
- Once UFA options dried up and the trade route didn't work, they made an offer to a guy that has struggled, but still has potential and upside; and they had the cap space to do it. It's certainly a gamble and may not work out, but the Canes management thought it was worth the risk. They think he can play W for this year and if he re-signs, might be able to replace Trochek (UFA next year) or Staal (UFA in 2 years).

IMO, the only way this becomes a bad move is if the pick they gave up ends up being top 10, otherwise, for me it's not a big deal. By design, a successful offer-sheet is only successful if the offer is an overpayment.

 

[holy]

IMO, the only way this becomes a bad move is if the pick they gave up ends up being top 10

Inshallah.

 

[ole ole]

I think people are trying to make too much out of it. As a Canes fan, I wasn't a fan of the move, but to me, it's simple.
- They wanted one more top 9 forward.
- They tried to get one in UFA and failed.
- They liked Kotkaniemi's skillset so they tried to trade for him.
- Once UFA options dried up and the trade route didn't work, they made an offer to a guy that has struggled, but still has potential and upside; and they had the cap space to do it. It's certainly a gamble and may not work out, but the Canes management thought it was worth the risk. They think he can play W for this year and if he re-signs, might be able to replace Trochek (UFA next year) or Staal (UFA in 2 years).

IMO, the only way this becomes a bad move is if the pick they gave up ends up being top 10, otherwise, for me it's not a big deal. By design, a successful offer-sheet is only successful if the offer is an overpayment.

So we agree it was an overpayment.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

So we agree it was an overpayment.

Yes. This isn’t exactly a ground breaking concept. I’ll even quote my own post from a month ago where I said it was an overpayment:

That’s how offer sheets work my dude.

you need to overpay so the players current team has to actually decide if whether or not it’s worth matching the contract.

you know, like the Habs failed to do with Aho.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So we agree it was an overpayment.

Of course it was. You don’t have a successful offer sheet without an overpayment. Vast majority of Canes fans agree and acknowledge that. It’s an overpayment for 1 year, in a season where they had cap space to do so.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Some fans still haven't grasped the concept that a successful offer sheet has to be an overpayment. That or just desperately searching for reasons to mock the Canes so the Habs look good by contrast.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Wait you actually don't realize what a guy did at 19/20 doesn't determine what he does at 21, 22, etc?

Boy a lot of ahl and junior players better hang up their skates at 19/20. They'll never get better. Not to mention everyone knows there's a decent chance he takes a good long term deal

My favourite part is some of those who consider Kotkaniemi an over the hill bust excitedly discuss how Jake Evans might net 40-50 points this year as a 25 year old. Only certain players, aka the ones I like, are capable of developing.

 

[Moosetache]

Some fans still haven't grasped the concept that a successful offer sheet has to be an overpayment. That or just desperately searching for reasons to mock the Canes so the Habs look good by contrast.

Its both, honestly. Anyone from north of Philly will mock anything the Canes do just to do it. Also they dont understand that to get a player you need to make it unpleasant for the current team. Its only for 1 year which is the key here. If he signs a 4 year extension for 4 mil its potentially a great deal for the team. Not too many financial whizzes on these boards.

 

[AvatarAang]

Some fans still haven't grasped the concept that a successful offer sheet has to be an overpayment. That or just desperately searching for reasons to mock the Canes so the Habs look good by contrast.

These are the same fans that are think they got a cheaper upgrade because Dvorak makes less than Kotkaniemi.

They conveniently ignore the fact that Bergevin failed to get kotkaniemi signed to a cheap contract leaving him as a prime target for an offersheet. Nolan Patrick was similar a top draft pick that just signed a 2 year bridge deal for $1.2M. I would be pretty upset if my GM traded a 3rd overall pick, that could have been signed for less than 2M, for Dvorak.

Canes fans, just ignore the haters. The recent 3rd overall picks include players like Heiskanen, Stutzle, Dach etc. This pick was supposed to be a game changer for the habs franchise. Just put yourselves in their position, they went from having one of Tkachuk/Hughes to Dvorak.

 

[abo9]

My favourite part is some of those who consider Kotkaniemi an over the hill bust excitedly discuss how Jake Evans might net 40-50 points this year as a 25 year old. Only certain players, aka the ones I like, are capable of developing.

I'm honestly a fan of what Kotkaniemi can become in Carolina, but in Montreal, he was not showing signs of progress, even the opposite at times.

Evans and Kotkaniemi's paths could not be further apart, so it's gonna be interesting to see how it plays out. Evans played all his years of NCAA, spent 2 more seasons seasoning in the AHL, and is finally getting a good look, the biggest knock against him being that he's a former 7th rounder.

Kotkaniemi, for some reason, after being rushed to the NHL, the team preferred benching him rather than sending him down in the AHL for extended periods of times. All that because he was a 3rd OA. Weirdly, he was known as a project (ie long-term prospect) the day he was drafted... so this coming season might have been his 1st NHL season if he was developped as such, with little expectations to booth. If he can find it in him to hit 40 pts this year, I believe that Carolina will have won their bet.

 

[Moosetache]

I'm honestly a fan of what Kotkaniemi can become in Carolina, but in Montreal, he was not showing signs of progress, even the opposite at times.

Evans and Kotkaniemi's paths could not be further apart, so it's gonna be interesting to see how it plays out. Evans played all his years of NCAA, spent 2 more seasons seasoning in the AHL, and is finally getting a good look, the biggest knock against him being that he's a former 7th rounder.

Kotkaniemi, for some reason, after being rushed to the NHL, the team preferred benching him rather than sending him down in the AHL for extended periods of times. All that because he was a 3rd OA. Weirdly, he was known as a project (ie long-term prospect) the day he was drafted... so this coming season might have been his 1st NHL season if he was developped as such, with little expectations to booth. If he can find it in him to hit 40 pts this year, I believe that Carolina will have won their bet.

This is completely accurate. He wasn't ready to play in the NHL at 18, even tho his point production was pretty good. He as expected regressed the next year. He needs some time to develop like a kid does. Play a less responsible position for a while, put up points, have fun and move on to the next step.

I think he goes just shy of 50 points this year. My bold predection being 20 goals 30 assists. I think ultimately hes at like 43-47 points.

I do think he gets 20 goals tho playing wing.

 

[Hins77]

These are the same fans that are think they got a cheaper upgrade because Dvorak makes less than Kotkaniemi.

They conveniently ignore the fact that Bergevin failed to get kotkaniemi signed to a cheap contract leaving him as a prime target for an offersheet. Nolan Patrick was similar a top draft pick that just signed a 2 year bridge deal for $1.2M. I would be pretty upset if my GM traded a 3rd overall pick, that could have been signed for less than 2M, for Dvorak.

Canes fans, just ignore the haters. The recent 3rd overall picks include players like Heiskanen, Stutzle, Dach etc. This pick was supposed to be a game changer for the habs franchise. Just put yourselves in their position, they went from having one of Tkachuk/Hughes to Dvorak.

If montreal management didnt match the offer at 6. I hope you think its because he is far from guys like hughes/tkachuk. I followed him since 3 seasons. I have never seen a sign of real progression. Obviously, Habs management, think the same and he had many opportunity to make it. If he was as good as many outside fan think. We would have match the offer. Thats it

 

[abo9]

This is completely accurate. He wasn't ready to play in the NHL at 18, even tho his point production was pretty good. He as expected regressed the next year. He needs some time to develop like a kid does. Play a less responsible position for a while, put up points, have fun and move on to the next step.

I think he goes just shy of 50 points this year. My bold predection being 20 goals 30 assists. I think ultimately hes at like 43-47 points.

I do think he gets 20 goals tho playing wing.

Depends which line he plays, but probably if 2nd line. Probably the first year where he won't be expected to carry a line or some other ridiculous expectation.

I know a lot of people are down on the Canes after their off season, but I'm actually pretty high on them.

 

[Ninjadude]

Im thinking this will come back and haunt Carolina at the end of his contract, which is only 1 year.

 

[playasRus]

Im thinking this will come back and haunt Carolina at the end of his contract, which is only 1 year.

Because trading away a 1st round pick for a rental is a terrible move no one should ever make? Worst case scenario KK scores 5 pts over 82 games and gets put on waivers. Most likely scenario he scores 40 pts, team is a bubble playoff team.

Unless you mean that pick ends up being a top 5 pick. Then yes that may haunt them until that player retires.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Im thinking this will come back and haunt Carolina at the end of his contract, which is only 1 year.

Just curious, why? If he doesn't show improvement or doesn't work out, you walk away and it cost you no more than it would have cost for a deadline pickup. Unless the pick is top 10, it's not that big of a deal IMO.

If he works out well enough that it make sense to pay him more, then it means he's been good and you find a way to make it work out (let Trochek and Nino walk and backfill with young guys for example).

Canes have had 33 picks in the last 3 drafts and still have 8 in the upcoming draft along with Jarvis, Rees, Suzuki, Drury, Bokk and a host of others in the system so "assuming" it's a late 1st round pick they lost, it's not a huge deal.

It's definitely a gamble on this move and I wasn't a fan of it (would have rather gone after someone more proven like Tarasenko), but the downside isn't as bad as some are making it out to be, unless of course the Canes stink and it's a top 10 pick. If that were to happen, then it could come back to haunt them. But if the team is picking in the top 10, the season is a total disappointment regardless of the move to acquire Kotkaniemi.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Just curious, why? If he doesn't show improvement or doesn't work out, you walk away and it cost you no more than it would have cost for a deadline pickup. Unless the pick is top 10, it's not that big of a deal IMO.

If he works out well enough that it make sense to pay him more, then it means he's been good and you find a way to make it work out (let Trochek and Nino walk and backfill with young guys for example).

Canes have had 33 picks in the last 3 drafts and still have 8 in the upcoming draft along with Jarvis, Rees, Suzuki, Drury, Bokk and a host of others in the system so "assuming" it's a late 1st round pick they lost, it's not a huge deal.

It's definitely a gamble on this move and I wasn't a fan of it (would have rather gone after someone more proven like Tarasenko), but the downside isn't as bad as some are making it out to be, unless of course the Canes stink and it's a top 10 pick. If that were to happen, then it could come back to haunt them. But if the team is picking in the top 10, the season is a total disappointment regardless of the move to acquire Kotkaniemi.

This, plus their entire core is pretty young. It's not likely they'll need replacements for guys like Aho, Slavin, Pesce, Svechnikov, Necas, and Teravainen any time soon.

 

[Tryamw]

This, plus their entire core is pretty young. It's not likely they'll need replacements for guys like Aho, Slavin, Pesce, Svechnikov, Necas, and Teravainen any time soon.

Aho's contract isn't that much longer.. Bloody Habs.. Nor Slavin's.. A few more years but got to get some results soon.

 

[Fainting Couch]

Bergevin is Tom Sawyer and Kotkaniemi is the fence.

 

[islandersbob]

Just curious, why? If he doesn't show improvement or doesn't work out, you walk away and it cost you no more than it would have cost for a deadline pickup. Unless the pick is top 10, it's not that big of a deal IMO.

If he works out well enough that it make sense to pay him more, then it means he's been good and you find a way to make it work out (let Trochek and Nino walk and backfill with young guys for example).

Canes have had 33 picks in the last 3 drafts and still have 8 in the upcoming draft along with Jarvis, Rees, Suzuki, Drury, Bokk and a host of others in the system so "assuming" it's a late 1st round pick they lost, it's not a huge deal.

It's definitely a gamble on this move and I wasn't a fan of it (would have rather gone after someone more proven like Tarasenko), but the downside isn't as bad as some are making it out to be, unless of course the Canes stink and it's a top 10 pick. If that were to happen, then it could come back to haunt them. But if the team is picking in the top 10, the season is a total disappointment regardless of the move to acquire Kotkaniemi.

My biggest problem with the offer sheet is that Carolina blew their biggest TDL piece to pick up a giant question mark in Kotkaniemi. A veteran FA or even a small trade for a vet to be a place holder till the TDL or (slightly earlier) probably results in a better player for Carolina.

1st and 3rd at TDL gets you a more established, and probably better player with multiple prime years left. Boils down to I don't think Kotkaniemi is or will be a big enough difference maker this year compared to what a 1st and 3rd can get at the TDL.

Also, Carolina is not 100% guaranteed to make the playoffs. A good trade deadline pickup could also help swing what I believe will be a very tightly packed Metro division. Caps, Pens and Isles will all most likely make a TDL splash, and those all happen to be three of Carolina's biggest obstacles to getting one of the three auto Metro spots.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

My biggest problem with the offer sheet is that Carolina blew their biggest TDL piece to pick up a giant question mark in Kotkaniemi. A veteran FA or even a small trade for a vet to be a place holder till the TDL or (slightly earlier) probably results in a better player for Carolina.

That's potentially a concern, but there are more ways to skin a cat. Canes still have a 8 picks in this next draft to work with as well as a deep prospect pool so IF they want to make a TDL move, there is plenty of assets to do so.

re: "pick up a veteran FA, this has been covered multiple times. they tried (really went after Saad), but failed so at the point they made the offer-sheet, there weren't any decent FAs left.

1st and 3rd at TDL gets you a more established, and probably better player with multiple prime years left. Boils down to I don't think Kotkaniemi is or will be a big enough difference maker this year compared to what a 1st and 3rd can get at the TDL.

Also, Carolina is not 100% guaranteed to make the playoffs. A good trade deadline pickup could also help swing what I believe will be a very tightly packed Metro division. Caps, Pens and Isles will all most likely make a TDL splash, and those all happen to be three of Carolina's biggest obstacles to getting one of the three auto Metro spots.

Most often, TDL pick-ups are rentals with 1 (or maybe 2) years left, so not sure why you'd assume a 1st and 3rd would get a player with "multiple prime years left". Particularly if, like you said, Caps, Pens, Isles and other teams are also looking to make a splash as that would drive prices up. On the flip side, if Kotkaniemi works out he's a RFA and might possibly be under team control for many years vs. the idea of a "rental" at the deadline.

My point is there are no absolutes here like you are trying to portray. They can still get a TDL guy if they want even after this move. They may be able to get a better player with "multiple prime years left", but most often, deadline deals are soon to be UFAs that teams are moving on from.

Again, I've said from the beginning that I'm not overly fond of the move, but I do at least see some rationale from the Canes management and I don't think the downsides are as big a deal as many are making them out to be (unless of course, the pick is top 5-10).

 

[ottawa]

Nobody:

My parents when they text:

He's NOT even playing CENTRE for us lmfao my ASS off

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Nobody:

My parents when they text:

I'm assumed he was being sarcastic because the poster he was responding too has a history of excessive using his "LOLs" (and even LEL) and LMFAO. That poster has done that in not only this thread (go take a look), but other threads as well.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

Over 40 pages - part 3 here