GDT: Caps vs Canadiens 7pm Apr 6

[IafrateOvie34]

I doubt we'll ever see a player as durable as Ovy ever again.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

The crux of it appears to be... they haven't fixed it all RIGHT NOW. Therefore they're not going to fix anything. Therefore, they must be trying to gaslight us fans by focusing on Ovi's chase... which posters also now seem to believe is unspecial and will be duplicated by the two flavors of the day in short order.

It’s such a bizarre stance that seemed to pop up after they celebrated 802. It’s beyond my comprehension that people are diminishing Ovi’s record; it’s more likely this team wins a Stanley Cup before we ever see someone get this close (and hopefully pass) Gretzky again and poo pooing the accomplishment — and accusing the team of priortizing it over winning which again makes zero sense at all — is wild.

I mean, taking a step back, it’s really a question of how you look at life. Do you appreciate what’s been accomplished or only focus on what you failed to accomplish? As I see it, when Ovi hangs them up we may have gotten to see in a 20 year span a Stanley Cup, qualifying for the playoffs 17 times or so in those 20 seasons, multiple Presidents Trophies, and our homegrown star player break what was thought to be an unbreakable record. Not terrible.

 

[twabby]

McDavid is 26 and 84 days and has 301 goals. Ovy was 26 and 27 days when he hit 302. So 57+ days behind the curve.
Matthews has 297 and is 25 and 202 days, will likely hit 302 at a younger age than McDavid.

The exceptional thing about Ovechkin's goal scoring isn't what he did from ages 20-26, but rather what he's done from ages 27-38. The other players near the top of the goal-scoring leaderboard have had exceptional goal-scoring seasons until their late 20s but then fall off. Brett Hull for instance scored 72, 86, and 70 goals from ages 25-27 but then he only averaged around 30 or so goals per season in his 30s. Steve Yzerman was ahead of Ovechkin at age 26, but Yzerman only scored 30+ goals twice after the age of 30. And of course Wayne Gretzky was way ahead of Ovechkin at age 26, but simply couldn't maintain an elite pace into his 30s.

All of this is to say until I see someone like McDavid or Matthews putting up 50+ goals well into their 30s I don't think they'll eclipse whatever total Ovechkin ends up with.

 

[YippieKaey]

McDavid is 26 and 84 days and has 301 goals. Ovy was 26 and 27 days when he hit 302. So 57+ days behind the curve.
Matthews has 297 and is 25 and 202 days, will likely hit 302 at a younger age than McDavid.

Yeah, but McDavid has 0.49 goals per game up until last season, Ovi still has 0.61. Matthews has a similar gpg as Ovi up until last season. But the thing with Ovi is you have to play a large number of games whilst scoring about 50 goals per year on average. 16 seasons of averaging 50 goals per game to get to 800. And i highly doubt Matthews or McDavid is going to have that health and that consistency. There's a reason only three people in league history has even gotten close.

 

[g00n]

The red tank posts are stupid.

I built this one just for you

 

[Calicaps]

It’s such a bizarre stance that seemed to pop up after they celebrated 802. It’s beyond my comprehension that people are diminishing Ovi’s record; it’s more likely this team wins a Stanley Cup before we ever see someone get this close (and hopefully pass) Gretzky again and poo pooing the accomplishment — and accusing the team of priortizing it over winning which again makes zero sense at all — is wild.

I mean, taking a step back, it’s really a question of how you look at life. Do you appreciate what’s been accomplished or only focus on what you failed to accomplish? As I see it, when Ovi hangs them up we may have gotten to see in a 20 year span a Stanley Cup, qualifying for the playoffs 17 times or so in those 20 seasons, multiple Presidents Trophies, and our homegrown star player break what was thought to be an unbreakable record. Not terrible.

Yep. Also, there's no reason to think that if Ovi reaches 895 and is still enjoying playing that he's just gonna hang 'em up right then. Why not become the only player to 900... or beyond?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I didn’t say he was going to do it. I said he has a chance. You said he has no chance at 800. How you could possibly know that is beyond me.

Actually, a lot of what you post is beyond me.

I can tell. Dude has one great goal scoring season (in his 8th year no less) and now people are laughably talking 800+.

 

[Calicaps]

Yeah, but McDavid has 0.49 goals per game up until last season, Ovi still has 0.61. Matthews has a similar gpg as Ovi up until last season. But the thing with Ovi is you have to play a large number of games whilst scoring about 50 goals per year on average. 16 seasons of averaging 50 goals per game to get to 800. And i highly doubt Matthews or McDavid is going to have that health and that consistency. There's a reason only three people in league history has even gotten close.

In the ESPN special, Gretzky himself says exactly this. He says "Scoring 800 goals is really hard. It was hard for Gordie. It was hard for me. If it was easy everyone would do it." If either McD or Matthews hit 700, then we can talk about what's possible.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yep. Also, there's no reason to think that if Ovi reaches 895 and is still enjoying playing that he's just gonna hang 'em up right then. Why not become the only player to 900... or beyond?

I said it before…the ONLY member of the 900 goal club sounds dreamy.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Yep. Also, there's no reason to think that if Ovi reaches 895 and is still enjoying playing that he's just gonna hang 'em up right then. Why not become the only player to 900... or beyond?

Probably bad for the team or something.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

McDavid is 26 and 84 days and has 301 goals. Ovy was 26 and 27 days when he hit 302. So 57+ days behind the curve.
Matthews has 297 and is 25 and 202 days, will likely hit 302 at a younger age than McDavid.

When they hit 33+, that’s where you’ll see reality kick in…they won’t maintain. It’s what makes Ovechkin special.

McDavid is 26 and 84 days and has 301 goals. Ovy was 26 and 27 days when he hit 302. So 57+ days behind the curve.
Matthews has 297 and is 25 and 202 days, will likely hit 302 at a younger age than McDavid.

That’s one selective way to look at it. Otherwise you could just compare their first X number of season and see how far behind they really are.

 

[Corby78]

Lets be honest, were talking about the vast majority of players dropping off around 33/34. Ovie is older than that and still needs a couple of 30 goal seasons to be in the ballpark. This number is a very very high bar to reach. Even Ovie isn't assured to make it, there are still a couple more seasons to get through.

 

[YippieKaey]

In the ESPN special, Gretzky himself says exactly this. He says "Scoring 800 goals is really hard. It was hard for Gordie. It was hard for me. If it was easy everyone would do it." If either McD or Matthews hit 700, then we can talk about what's possible.

Yeah i mean the closest anyone else got was Jagr who is a comparable talent and played like 2000 games.

 

[YippieKaey]

If McDavid plays at the pace he has so far for 1000 more games, he'll end up with about 720 goals and around 2000 points. Very good, incredibly good. But nowhere near the scoring record.

Matthews would end up with about 780 goals and 1300-isch points. Which is also incredible.

But i highly doubt either of those will maintain their goalscoring levels through 1000 more games.

 

[Langway]

I wonder if age curves won't be defied by more elite talents going forward due to less wear and tear from physical play. It's perhaps higher impact in other ways, more taxing in its explosiveness and consistently higher pace but I'd take that trade-off pretty easily if I were a star player. Speed also may not improve considerably across the league in the next 5-10 years to age what's currently elite. Skill level probably will rise further as more limited grinders go the way of enforcers in the past. Ditto defensive D that aren't composed and can't make a first pass.

Overall I think there's a generational shift toward skill that may keep these inflated scoring totals going for quite some time. Goaltending is perhaps at a low point in recent history. Defense isn't all that much better aside from a couple teams. Boston and Carolina seem to be about the only teams that take pride in defending these days. So the environment for a McDavid, Matthews or, hell, even Bedard is about as favorable as you could draw it up now. You'd think at some point there should be a shift back to defense but defense isn't sexy and point scorers get paid. This shift also makes it exceedingly challenging trying to compete with a bunch of clearly post-peak players whose fundamentals were never a strong suit.

 

[RedRocking]

Style of play and durability are also hugely important. Matthews seems very injury prone as of late, and some Leafs fans say his wrist issues have already diminished his game (ofc who knows with that fan base). But sure, AM is a natural goal scorer, like Ovi. If I had to pick anyone to get to 800, it would probably be him.

McDavid OTOH, is not that kind of goal scorer. He’s not a sniper. He relies on his absurd speed and hands to fly by goalies and catch them out of position. His legs and hands won’t be the same as he hits 33+. Heck, look at what’s going on with Kuzy, at 30, in terms of speed/hands. So, McDavid won’t necessarily have that nasty slap shot or wrister to make up for his aging legs and hands.

It also remains to be seen how much of an outlier this season is for McD - his previous high was 44. This could just be like Sid’s 51 goal outburst in 2009-10.

 

[Ovi895]

McDavid and Matthews both have the advantage of starting at 18 while Ovi was about the latest 2004 draft eligible birthday he could be and started in 2005 at 20. Both haven't had to deal with a lockout yet either (so far) while Ovi dealt with 2. And scoring looks to be going parabolic while the league is replacing older physical/dirty players with newer softer players (fighting banned in juniors etc). Not impossible they both get there but until then Ovi getting the record with a single team is a bigger piece of history than any back to back cups could be

 

[Calicaps]

This whole threadjack about Matthews and McDavid is main-board level ridiculous. This place has gone nuts. One bad season and our posters lose their damn minds. Come the post-Ovie years, this entire board is gonna need a padded room.

 

[marcel snapshot]

in. The only thing I can think of is people interpreting them not doing a full tear down while Ovi is still playing as prioritizing Ovi scoring over winning. If that’s not your take please tell me how a skill drop off in the team helps Ovi but hurts the team. Tell me how players aging around him and regressing helps him but hurts the team. Making the team better helps Ovi and helps the organization try to compete and win. I fundamentally don’t understand how making the team worse helps Ovechkin catch Gretzky so I really want to hear about the moves the team is making to prioritize Ovi scoring over winning. Explain it to me like I’m five because these takes make zero sense.

It was clear several years ago that Ovi was going to challenge Gretzky. Certainly in 2018-19 that was clear - and to me that was the year in which the core of the Cup winning team rightfully deserved a shot at seeing what they could do in the playoffs with the momentum of that win.

They played with a lot of confidence in that Canes series, but also with some of the old complacency and inability to close that held them back some in the years leading up to the Cup. They lead that game 7 2-0 and 3-1 (after also leading in Game 6), and yes Holtby gave up 2 stinkers - but in OT the Canes obviously had more legs than we did and just out-played us by a wide margin.

The failure of that group to lock that game and series down said something. To a lot of people, it said Holtby was done and Todd wasn’t a good HC - and those takes weren’t wrong. But the same thing happened in the next 3 playoff years, only it got progressively clearer that the group didn’t have what it takes to win a playoff round. They got slaughtered by the Isles, failed to take advantage of their opportunities against the Bs, and declined the gift the Cats were offering.

I think it as the job of the front office to see what was happening earlier than they did, and do something about it. Instead, during that time, they signed 4 aging and very popular players on the wrong side of their career arcs to expensive contracts with a lot of term, and did little to integrate youth and speed into the core.

I think that reluctance to make bigger changes earlier - and to instead make decisions that now tie their hands and preclude big changes - was a managerial error, that grow out of the view that The Chase was imminent (which was correct, it’s here now), easily and readily saleable, and that making changes to the aging core was too risky and not necessary.

So, bottom line for me is that I think this has been mismanaged. I don’t know why management was reluctant to make moves that would transition away older non-Ovi guys earlier - but I think other teams in the NHL and other sports have faced this situation and managed it better.

Change is hard, especially when it involves disrupting something that’s been very successful. Reckoning with the declines brought on by age is hard, especially when it involves good people who have been instrumental to success. I think the ability to sell the pursuit of the record was a safety net they leaned on to avoid having to make uncomfortable decisions. But that’s their job. I don’t think they did it well.

Sorry for the length - but you asked. And remember, as Crash Davis said to Nuke LaLouche on the mound when Nuke was nervous about having his father see him pitch: “He’s just your Dad. He’s as full of shit as anybody.” My opinions are always offered in that spirit

 

[marcel snapshot]

The crux of it appears to be... they haven't fixed it all RIGHT NOW. Therefore they're not going to fix anything. Therefore, they must be trying to gaslight us fans by focusing on Ovi's chase... which posters also now seem to believe is unspecial and will be duplicated by the two flavors of the day in short order.

The first half of this is a plausible reading of my views as articulated by me after a few beers, so fair enough.

But I don’t in any way believe the record would be unspecial. Marcel Dionne as my favorite player growing up and it was awesome when Ovi passed him. I saw Gordon Howe play when I was 11, watched him post up in the slot and score a goal. And I saw Gretzky play live several times. I would not downplay passing those guys

 

[Ridley Simon]

McDavid is 26 and 84 days and has 301 goals. Ovy was 26 and 27 days when he hit 302. So 57+ days behind the curve.
Matthews has 297 and is 25 and 202 days, will likely hit 302 at a younger age than McDavid.

And here I thought it was about games played.

Connor = 566 games = 302 goals
Alex = 566 games = 324 goals

Age is a number. It’s going to be about games played.

This is such an odd take that’s really grounded in nothing. Please give me examples as to how the team is building around only wanting to get Ovi the record and not wanting to win. The front office has said they made a commitment to Ovi not to do a full rebuild while he’s still playing — is that what you’re referring to?

Otherwise I’m perplexed when people think the team is somehow making moves to let Ovi score more at the expense of trying to win. The only thing I can think of is people interpreting them not doing a full tear down while Ovi is still playing as prioritizing Ovi scoring over winning. If that’s not your take please tell me how a skill drop off in the team helps Ovi but hurts the team. Tell me how players aging around him and regressing helps him but hurts the team. Making the team better helps Ovi and helps the organization try to compete and win. I fundamentally don’t understand how making the team worse helps Ovechkin catch Gretzky so I really want to hear about the moves the team is making to prioritize Ovi scoring over winning. Explain it to me like I’m five because these takes make zero sense.

It was an Op Ed. That should be clear? At least I think it was

 

[Ridley Simon]

I said it before…the ONLY member of the 900 goal club sounds dreamy.

He won’t end at 895 unless injury or some crazy trauma. 900 is not the number. It’s 1000. That’s the dreamy for me

 

[Ridley Simon]

This whole threadjack about Matthews and McDavid is main-board level ridiculous. This place has gone nuts. One bad season and our posters lose their damn minds. Come the post-Ovie years, this entire board is gonna be padded room.

Exit, stage Left?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He won’t end at 895 unless injury or some crazy trauma. 900 is not the number. It’s 1000. That’s the dreamy for me

Can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen, but it’s nice to dream.

 

[Calicaps]

Can pretty much guarantee that won’t happen, but it’s nice to dream.

It's 105 past the record. not unthinkable. if he maintains a 40 goal pace from here for the next 4-5 years...