Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[HTFN]

The point is scouting teams have kind of stunk at their jobs, because they ignore these very obvious talents when they aren't 6 feet tall.


View attachment 873672

How are you proving that, besides attributing all the successes to “giving analytics a shot” and the failures to “traditional scouting”?

 

[twabby]

How are you proving that, besides attributing all the successes to “giving analytics a shot” and the failures to “traditional scouting”?

In aggregate the nerds beat the pros. But certainly there are fine people on both sides of the issue!

 

[DWGie26]

One of the things I have liked about Carberry is that he has often cited fancy stats / analytics to back up his eye test. he is looking at both things which is productive.

gotta think Carbs is very involved with telling management what he needs to fill his gaps. What kind of player he is looking for. Carbs will factor in heavily with what GMBM goes after. If we make a run at Marner (or we don’t) that is going to be heavily influenced by what Carbs things.

 

[Kalopsia]

Ok, one last post fawning over the 4th line. Hopefully. I aggregated every individual forward season on Natural Stat Trick, limited it to seasons where the player had at least 200 5 on 5 minutes (total of 7461 player-seasons), then made this graph of OZ Faceoff Percentage vs GF Percentage. The individual 23/24 seasons of Beck, Dowd, and NAK are the three smaller red dots (in left to right order), and the big red dot is the aggregate of them together as a line. You can take my word for it that there's no other dots hiding underneath their bigger dots, those guys just inhabit their own little section of the graph.

In case anyone's as curious about outliers as I am, I'll identify some of the other potential dots of interest on this graph.

• The two dots just above and the right of the line dot are Paul Gaustad in 14/15 and Tomas Nosek in 22/23.
• The lonely dot in the bottom left that's the only other player besides Beck to have a <10% OZ Faceoff season is Paul Gaustad again in 15/16. They tried to give him the same workload two years in a row and the second time around he got caved in. Nashville went *extreme* on the focused deployments that year - at the same time Gaustad was setting the record for lowest OZ Faceoff percentage at 6.9%, Ribiero was setting the record for the highest at 84.9.
• The two unlucky bastards who managed to play 200+ minutes without a single goal for while they were on the ice were Phillippe Dupuis (237 minutes) and Eric Boulton (332 minutes), both in 11/12.
• The guy who barely managed 30% GF while getting almost 80% OZ Faceoffs was rookie Leon Draisaitl in 14/15. I forgot how brutal his introduction to the NHL was.
• On the opposite side of the graph, the guy with about 70% GF on only 20% OZ Faceoffs is Nick Foligno in 22/23. Didn't expect that one either.

 

[pman25]

Carbs is definitely a spreadsheet guy. That’s why he looks so mad on that bench. He wants to see his dashboards and numbers

 

[alphabetical]

ill gladly eat crow. think my brain crossed wires with sgarbossa

ftr, here's more edge records. Edge says i'm right about CMM vs Lappie, but the Edge score for Lappie (and AA) seems way off.

tossed in fat ass JC74 and slow poke GR8 for the lolz

MAL - Top Skating Speed (mph) 23.63 22.10 97
NAK - Top Skating Speed (mph) 23.42 22.10 94
CMM - Top Skating Speed (mph) 23.23 22.10 91
FVR - Top Skating Speed (mph) 23.08 21.67 87
Pro - Top Skating Speed (mph) 22.74 22.10 73
Mil - Top Skating Speed (mph) 22.61 22.10 68
Lap - Top Skating Speed (mph) 22.56 22.10 66

JC74 - Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.97 21.67 Below 50th
AA - Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.91 21.67 Below 50th
STM - Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.89 22.10 Below 50th
GR8 - Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.69 22.10 Below 50th
Mir - Top Skating Speed (mph) 21.19 22.10 Below 50th

The burst frequency may be a better indicator of playing speed than the top speed. For example, here's Mcmichael vs Lapierre:

While lapierre has a lower top speed, he does have more 20-22 mph speed bursts per game at 147/51 = 2.88 versus mcmichael's 180/80 = 2.25. There's a good reason lapierre stands out as faster to some people - he uses his speed more often even though he has less of it.

Another example of top speed being misleading is kuznetsov. His top speed this year was higher than mchmichael's, but his 20-22 mph burst frequency was only 95/63 = 1.5/game. That's why he looked so slow all year - he didn't skate fast in games despite being a fast skater.

Top speed shows which players CAN skate fast, but the speed burst count shows the players who DO skate fast.

 

[HTFN]

In aggregate the nerds beat the pros. But certainly there are fine people on both sides of the issue!

prove it, because the nerds also hyper-fixate on a few guys every year destined to become superstars or turn the corner that... don't.

you concluding this because it "feels right" when your whole point is that statistics should be able to outweigh feelings and the eye test is amazing.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The burst frequency may be a better indicator of playing speed than the top speed. For example, here's Mcmichael vs Lapierre: View attachment 873758
While lapierre has a lower top speed, he does have more 20-22 mph speed bursts per game at 147/51 = 2.88 versus mcmichael's 180/80 = 2.25. There's a good reason lapierre stands out as faster to some people - he uses his speed more often even though he has less of it.

Another example of top speed being misleading is kuznetsov. His top speed this year was higher than mchmichael's, but his 20-22 mph burst frequency was only 95/63 = 1.5/game. That's why he looked so slow all year - he didn't skate fast in games despite being a fast skater. View attachment 873770

Top speed shows which players CAN skate fast, but the speed burst count shows the players who DO skate fast.

This is a interesting metric. Stops and starts and the burst of speed out of a stop is huge. Who gets to the puck in the small time frame can change games.

 

[trick9]

Hindsight is always the best drafting GM.

Now let's see the receipts from when those past drafts were actually held. Go dig up your posts about who you thought then that we should have drafted at our spot and how many of those players turned into star players. If you find star players consistently i'd definitely recommend you to our scouting staff.

 

[Langway]

In aggregate the nerds beat the pros. But certainly there are fine people on both sides of the issue!

Same old off-season beanbag.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

In aggregate the nerds beat the pros. But certainly there are fine people on both sides of the issue!

I dunno. Isn’t Carolina the head of the nerds in the NHL? Feels like every year at the draft it’s, “zomg how did XX player fall to Carolina,” or “of course Carolina took the best hidden gems in the draft — that organization is playing a different sport than everyone else,” and what do they have to show for it? A lot of players who are pretty to very good and no stars. No stud 1C, no 1RD, no goalie. They’re the disappointment of the postseason year after year.

I’m a numbers guy myself so I’m by no means anti-metrics or anti-nerd but I think putting blind faith in the analytics in hockey is misguided due to the randomness of the sport and the complexity of the developmental ecosystem that — in aggregate — combines to make predicting performance of players in the NHL more difficult than in any other sport.

 

[twabby]

I dunno. Isn’t Carolina the head of the nerds in the NHL? Feels like every year at the draft it’s, “zomg how did XX player fall to Carolina,” or “of course Carolina took the best hidden gems in the draft — that organization is playing a different sport than everyone else,” and what do they have to show for it? A lot of players who are pretty to very good and no stars. No stud 1C, no 1RD, no goalie. They’re the disappointment of the postseason year after year.

I’m a numbers guy myself so I’m by no means anti-metrics or anti-nerd but I think putting blind faith in the analytics in hockey is misguided due to the randomness of the sport and the complexity of the developmental ecosystem that — in aggregate — combines to make predicting performance of players in the NHL more difficult than in any other sport.

I mentioned this last year but I'll say it again. It's not that I think just blindly following the numbers is the optimal solution (well at least until the metrics get better). It's just that blindly following the numbers right now is better than what most teams are currently doing.

I'm not sure where Carolina stands in their adoption of analytics vs. the rest of the league. They certainly have high profile analytics hires but how much do they rely on them? I kind of doubt the analytics folks wanted Kotkaneimi, for instance. That seemed very much like a spite move to "punish" Montreal. Who knows how many other huge decisions like that (including drafting) come down to some petty grievances or "hunches" or whatever.

 

[StrikingDistance]

First thing I heard in my brain is Pitt in Meet Joe Black.

Was on vacay visiting a couple caribbean isles and yes, this was my local bartender for 3 days. I couldn't interpret a lot of what he said, but all the weed talk seemed to resonate...

think I posted that at the bar...I think. haha

 

[StrikingDistance]

I dunno. Isn’t Carolina the head of the nerds in the NHL? Feels like every year at the draft it’s, “zomg how did XX player fall to Carolina,” or “of course Carolina took the best hidden gems in the draft — that organization is playing a different sport than everyone else,” and what do they have to show for it? A lot of players who are pretty to very good and no stars. No stud 1C, no 1RD, no goalie. They’re the disappointment of the postseason year after year.

I’m a numbers guy myself so I’m by no means anti-metrics or anti-nerd but I think putting blind faith in the analytics in hockey is misguided due to the randomness of the sport and the complexity of the developmental ecosystem that — in aggregate — combines to make predicting performance of players in the NHL more difficult than in any other sport.

See people and statbots, this is how you Nerd on here.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I've wasted way too much time in here already today so I'm not going to respond to your whole comment, but I do want to pointp out that it seems really weird to criticize MacLellan's drafting and then turn around and use McPhee's drafting as an example of doing it better, considering MacLellan was the second-in-command during the McPhee years and Ross Mahoney was running the draft for both regimes. Do you think MacLellan's been ignoring Mahoney's genius recommendations for a decade and Don's sticking around cause he doesn't mind?

As I said in an earlier post, finding talent late in the draft is overwhelmingly based on luck. If McPhee and Mahoney really had some inkling that Holtby was gonna be the best goalie in that draft, they wouldn't have passed on him with consecutive picks in the 2nd round. They had a minor hunch at best and it happened to pay off. Tampa had a run where they looked incredible, then they suddenly went ice cold. The Caps had the same thing happen. Dallas will probably hit a rough patch soon as they regress back to the mean. All you'll do by obsessing over the diamonds in the rough we missed out on is drive yourself crazy.

It always comes back to this…I can’t even read these long rambles about GMBM when he was there supporting McPhee as his number 1, and the player personnel people are all pretty much the same, and we KNOW those are the guys paid to set up draft targets. The drafting could certainly do better, but that’s an organizational effort, not one man.


Maybe @Vivaldi criticisms would resonate more if he acknowledged this.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Any source out there that's tracked nerd projections vs. scouting services vs. draft position?

We've got to be upwards of a decade with #fancystats widely available to the public. I'm genuinely interested in how they've done.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ondřej Kaše's path to NHL comeback looks clear 2 years after neurological issues derailed career — The Athletic

Kase, whose last NHL game was in 2022, had a rare healthy year playing at home in Czechia and is impressing at the World Championship.

apple.news

Hmmm…

 

[kicksavedave]

How patient is he going to be? We can’t teeter on the brink of mediocrity forever and expect to go anywhere, a direction needs to be chosen somewhat soon

He needs to be patient until Ovi, Backie, JC, Oshie and Kuzy are off the books. Then he needs to show he can build a team from nothing. So for Ovi, 895 or so. The cap will open up a lot next year. If he doesn't do something big then, it will be time to grump.

 

[pman25]

I dunno. Isn’t Carolina the head of the nerds in the NHL? Feels like every year at the draft it’s, “zomg how did XX player fall to Carolina,” or “of course Carolina took the best hidden gems in the draft — that organization is playing a different sport than everyone else,” and what do they have to show for it? A lot of players who are pretty to very good and no stars. No stud 1C, no 1RD, no goalie. They’re the disappointment of the postseason year after year.

I’m a numbers guy myself so I’m by no means anti-metrics or anti-nerd but I think putting blind faith in the analytics in hockey is misguided due to the randomness of the sport and the complexity of the developmental ecosystem that — in aggregate — combines to make predicting performance of players in the NHL more difficult than in any other sport.

Carolina has the 3rd best record in the regular season over the past five years.

Objectively, that’s elite. I get the postseason disappointments but winning in the regular season is what gives your team the best opportunity to win a cup. They’ve been doing that. Not sure if it’s because it’s nerd driven but they are a very good team year in and year out

 

[kicksavedave]

In aggregate the nerds beat the pros. But certainly there are fine people on both sides of the issue!

Terrible quote. Boo!

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Aho isnt a top player?

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

The last 2 years what moves were to be made that GMBM missed out on?

Not trading Sheery, Craig Anderson, TVR, Jensen, Dowd.
Not trading up in the draft... Leonard looks like a gem so thats a wash right now.

We just now got out of salary cap hell that we have been in for the last decade

Ahh yes the classic “what move did we miss out on” defense. Just because a move wasn’t made doesn’t mean one wasn’t available. I’ll give you one example off the rip. Ehlers was available last year. And again this year. You don’t think this team could use 25 more goals or 60 more points? Vs whomever they pick at 17 who we won’t see for 3 plus years?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I mentioned this last year but I'll say it again. It's not that I think just blindly following the numbers is the optimal solution (well at least until the metrics get better). It's just that blindly following the numbers right now is better than what most teams are currently doing.

I'm not sure where Carolina stands in their adoption of analytics vs. the rest of the league. They certainly have high profile analytics hires but how much do they rely on them? I kind of doubt the analytics folks wanted Kotkaneimi, for instance. That seemed very much like a spite move to "punish" Montreal. Who knows how many other huge decisions like that (including drafting) come down to some petty grievances or "hunches" or whatever.

I maybe misspoke or chose poor verbiage but I wasn’t insinuating that you personally blindly follow the numbers. Would assume if they hire a bunch of analytics people they’re not doing it to let them play video games all day and use their gut to make decisions.

Carolina has the 3rd best record in the regular season over the past five years.

Objectively, that’s elite. I get the postseason disappointments but winning in the regular season is what gives your team the best opportunity to win a cup. They’ve been doing that. Not sure if it’s because it’s nerd driven but they are a very good team year in and year out

This is a bit misleading though, yeah? Since they moved to Carolina they finished with a top ten league record one time since 1998 outside of the timeframe you’re discussing. They finished 4th in 2006 and got lucky as hell and won a Cup. In the 10 years prior to Covid they finished 11th, 21st, 21st, 18th, 26th, 24th, 26th, 23rd, 19th, and 24th, and this was pre-expansion so there were only 30 teams. They missed the playoffs nine straight years leading up to 2018-19. That’s an impressive level of futility and they should be good now drafting as high as they were for as long as they were. So sure, they’re good now, but they had to mostly suck for 20+ years to get there. How much credit do they get for being smart vs how much of it is actually not being objectively terrible with premium assets?

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

How long do you give Vanny and Sammy, in the NHL, to show if they can be stars or scrubs? Sammy and Vanny were the post Holtby plan. When it became apparent that neither one of them was really seizing the starting job, he signed Lundy as a stop gap. But no one predicted Lundy's heart condition, so that plan failed.

If Sammy or Vanny had developed like Holtby did, then we're not having these conversations and we likely win a few more playoff rounds since 2018.

Sometimes, things just don't work out.

But that’s the job lol. He’s paid to have things “work out”. Throwing your hands up and saying well hell I can’t predict the future is a cop out.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Aho isnt a top player?

Where do you rank him among centers in the league? Top 15?