Caps 2015 Pre-Draft Talk

AlexBrovechkin8

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I have a STEM degree. I took multiple classes on probability. I know what I'm talking about here. 70.67% of the registered ice hockey players in the world come from North America. No amount of specific skill sets or teaching techniques are going to override that massive hockey population advantage for North America.

If you were educated in Philly it doesn't count bro.
 

Turd Ferguson

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Apr 21, 2015
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I have a STEM degree. I took multiple classes on probability. I know what I'm talking about here. 70.67% of the registered ice hockey players in the world come from North America. No amount of specific skill sets or teaching techniques are going to override that massive hockey population advantage for North America.

Link? Not that I don't believe you. Registered ice hockey players I would assume would include the entire minor hockey's participants (i.e non competitive teams too). I'd be more interested in the total players in competitive leagues AAA, AA leagues. They've done breakdowns of the odds a kid in Canada has at moving up the ranks and they are rough. CHL has 60 teams with 22 man rosters. That is 1320 spots for players to participate in that league and get the best exposure to be drafted in Canada. NCAA has 59 schools, so 1298 spots to players to be on the biggest stage in the U.S besides the USHL. USHL has 17 teams and at 22 man roster, 374. These are all rough estimates. Assuming they are the regulars on the team, not call ups. So a total of 2992 players that within NA have the best exposure to scouting. 2992 players fighting to be one of the 210 players picked. This is without including all the amateur leagues in Europe that are looked at as well. What is it about these leagues that makes their players more desirable?

If you have the skills to play hockey, you'll move up the ranks. If your not taught how to play the game, you don't move up the ranks. Don't negate mentoring.
 

Hivemind

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Where can I register as an ice hockey player? DMV? or is there some other agency I need to contact?
This is numbers from the national association of each country. In our case, USA Hockey. Many (most?) youth leagues are affiliated with USA Hockey.
http://www.usahockey.com/membership

I provided the link on the last page.

If you were educated in Philly it doesn't count bro.
Fortunately for me, I went to a well-funded public school system (FCPS) as opposed to the underfunded mess that is Philadelphia schools. Only my University-level schooling was in Philadelphia.
 

g00n

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:facepalm:

Well I couldn't stop there, your idea of probability is horrendous. Have you ever looked at sports betting? Probability can be complicated :laugh:

More players doesn't always equal more quality. Haven't you ever been told that? How they learn to play the sport and what their being taught is just as important. I think your REALLY missing that point.

In a vacuum that could be true. But hockey has been around long enough for the data to have mostly normalized. It's less likely that there are areas of huge hockey interest and very little talent being developed, as over the years the rewards for talent would cause certain areas to thrive and others to fall off the map.

Canada/North America are highly competitive and have been for a long time, as you noted, and that tends to produce a lot more top tier talent simply by virtue of competition and drawing interest from coaches and scouts. It's the same reason the USA was so dominant in basketball for so many years, and why high schools with large population bases tend to have a better selection of talent compared to smaller schools.

Smaller markets need virtuoso talent and specialization to crack the ranks of larger pools.
 
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Turd Ferguson

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Number of registered hockey players, including male, female and junior, provided by the respective countries' federations. Note that this list only includes the 35 of 74 IIHF member countries with more than 1,000 registered players as of June 2015

This link is not relevant. It included female players too...
 

Turd Ferguson

Its a funny name
Apr 21, 2015
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In a vacuum that could be true. But hockey has been around long enough for the data to have mostly normalized. It's less likely that there are areas of huge hockey interest and very little talent being developed, as over the years the rewards for talent would cause certain areas to thrive and others to fall off the map.

Canada and North America are highly competitive and have been for a long time, as you noted, and that tends to produce a lot more top tier talent simply by virtue of competition and drawing interest from coaches and scouts. It's the same reason the USA was so dominant in basketball for so many years, and why high schools with large population bases tend to have a better selection of talent compared to smaller schools.

Smaller markets need virtuoso talent and specialization to crack the ranks of larger pools.

The original point of my argument, was that NA player development is very effective and that it translates well into their draft stock, hence impacting the high numbers representation in the draft. I know it very competitive in NA and that the numbers here in regards to participation are higher, but more then high turn out is needed to get good hockey players.
 

Hivemind

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Agreed. I never understood how so many around here were so enamored with that dumb game every year and seemed to pretend any of it meant anything.

Meant anything? Absolutely not.
But it was free hockey in the slowest part of the hockey year, and you also got to see a number of Capitals prospects play in person. It was an enjoyable experience. I'm betting this 4-team tournament won't be in the Washington DC (or Philadelphia) area.
 

AlexBrovechkin8

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Agreed. I never understood how so many around here were so enamored with that dumb game every year and seemed to pretend any of it meant anything.

Tons of fights, if that's your thing. And by that point I'm suffering bad enough from hockey withdrawal that I'd watch damn near any organized form of the sport, especially at the professional level.
 

strungout

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The Traverse City tournament they played in years ago was far more influential towards development than that stupid Flyers game. So getting back to that is a step in the right direction for the organization for sure.
 

Ajax1995

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Dec 9, 2002
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The Traverse City tournament they played in years ago was far more influential towards development than that stupid Flyers game. So getting back to that is a step in the right direction for the organization for sure.

My feelings exactly. Anything that might help the development of the organization's prospects I'm for and a one off punch up with the Flyers wasn't going to ever do anything except possibly end some poor sucker's career. IMO of course...
 

Langway

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Yeah, raising the stakes and visibility of their rookies games is only a good thing. Hopefully they make quality development camp invitations to CHLers because they're probably going to need at least a handful due in part to college player unavailability.
 

g00n

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We don't really need face-punching auditions every year, do we? Didn't think so.
 

usiel

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Glad to hear they are getting back in to playing a rookie tourney. Hopefully there will be some radio play by play via the website.

I'm really digging the prospects that will be around at #22 even not taking into account any potential sliders. Hoping they keep the pick. Not opposed to trading for more immediate help but I think the Forsberg fall out and the difficulty of landing a trade just makes me discount the possibility.
 

Cush

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who are you guys hoping for #62? I'm hoping caps get Dergachyev. Although caps do need to start drafting dmen...

He'll probably be gone by then. Giving up a 2nd & 3rd for Glencross :shakehead. They need to work on their pro scouting (at lest when it comes to trades). What was the last a trade that actually worked out? Fedorov? Huet? (believe those were in the same season)
 

Langway

In den Wolken
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Forwards @ 62: Dergachyov, Trenin, Cirelli, NRoy, Knott, Wagner

Defensemen: Vande Sompel, Guhle, Wotherspoon
 

pman25

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I think LW Erik Foley and C Brad Morrison would also be good picks at 62.

For 22, I change my mind everyday. Eriksson Ek, Gurianov, Kylington, Boeser, Zboril, Chabot, White. Oh and Svechnikov, if he drops!

I do wonder if they take a defenseman. I remember in 2012 when they were eyeing a defeseman at 11 and then Forsberg dropped. And last year there were rumors about Fleury. So maybe Kylington/Chabot/Zboril?

Just take good players and don't make dumb trades. That is all that I ask.
 

CapsJunkie

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should be a great draft, wish caps had more picks. Zbroil reminds me so much of Carlson at that age, the way he moves, skates and his snapshot from that far out.
 

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