Cale Makar vs Connor Bedard, with a twist

[Fig]

I'm pleasantly surprised that the poll isn't a runaway in any direction, though I'm a bit surprised that Makar is losing to Bedard by a factor of 2 to 1. I was actually concerned this would be a bit unfair to 98. Bedard's obviously going to be a whale of a player, but for so many people to take him over a guaranteed top 10 dman of all time and a 7th overall pick? And if the other GM who traded up thinks anything like HF, there's still a ~30% chance you would still get Bedard. Those are some crazy high expectations!

Part of me is curious at the preferences of the people voting to trade down? Based on the distribution of votes of Makar vs Bedard, you would think most would be expecting to receive Makar + 7th OA for Bedard. But I doubt that's actually the case.



That's more or less the way I looked at it. But I could also see the logic behind just outright taking either, as a 7th overall pick isn't necessarily a lot when talking about the margins between elite players. In this case I just think it's tough enough to figure who will actually be theore impactful guy, that it's easier to just take the extra pick and let the other guy potentially make the wrong pick.

I don't know the thought process when you designed the question, but the way I looked at it made it feel like it was almost like a Monty Hall problem. By hiding who the team willing to trade up to aim for, aren't you basically saying Makar and Bedard are in theory, near equal?

By giving us hindsight and trading down, aren't you basically saying that if 1OA and 2OA are so close that in theory, by electing to change your decision, your original odds of selecting a GOAT naughty change to you getting good odds to selecting a GOAT and getting a car?

Makar draft: 7OA was Lias Andersson with Glass above and Mittelstadt below.
Bedard draft: 7OA was Michkov with Simashev above and Leonard below.

Some may fear getting 2OA and drafting a Lias Andersson. But I also agree with you where with hindsight, you already said that with one of Makar or Bedard left over, you know you wouldn't look dumb. So I imagined 2OA and getting an Andersson or Michkov or Mittelstadt at 7OA. IMO, trading down is a bonus round fence swinging move.

I voted to trade down.

The concept is certainly interesting.

 

[Acallabeth]

It depends on the needs of the club, but adding another core, world class player to Bedard or Makar seems to be a better option to start the franchise than having just one Makar or Bedard.

 

[HolyHagelin]

Makar has proven he's the best player in his position and translates that dominance to the post season.

I think there are still question marks if Bedard ever becomes that kind of center and I'd take the best defenceman in the league on my team rather than the best winger in the league which I think Bedard will be in his prime.

This is just wrong. Makar is in a career long analytical nosedive. He has gotten worse consistently over time. This board constantly singing his praises got me to do the deep dive. He is pretty mid.

 

[HolyHagelin]

Cake makar, declining in value every year while somehow convincing these boards he is Bobby Raymond Lidstrom-Pronger

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Cake makar, declining in value every year while somehow convincing these boards he is Bobby Raymond Lidstrom-Pronger

Are you really using all situations rel CF%?

His 5v5 numbers fine.

He's having a down year this year but last year was his 2nd best season for rel xG%. And his 3 years prior have all been effectively flat for rel CF%.

Not to mention that he's leading all defenseman in pts/gp.

 

[cneely]

Try watching him play

I've watched him plenty. He's great. He's not the 2nd coming.

You are in the wrong thread the Norris is going to Hughes this year but maybe you haven't been watching Makar since the draft?

My reference to the Norris is in response to a poster who is pointing to his Norris position as proof of his greatness.

Makar is awesome. He won't be a top 10 defenceman of all time.

 

[Muffin]

Feels like a lot of new toy syndrome here. Makar will go down as a top 5 defenseman of all time, will Bedard will be a top 5 forward of all time?

 

[wetcoast]

I've watched him plenty. He's great. He's not the 2nd coming.


My reference to the Norris is in response to a poster who is pointing to his Norris position as proof of his greatness.

Makar is awesome. He won't be a top 10 defenceman of all time.

It's too early to tell but he is trending towards top 20 pretty easily right now but he has to stay healthy.

 

[cneely]

Feels like a lot of new toy syndrome here. Makar will go down as a top 5 defenseman of all time, will Bedard will be a top 5 forward of all time?

Orr, Lidstrom, Bourque, Potvin, Harvey, Coffey, Robinson.

Which of those is he better than?

 

[Muffin]

Orr, Lidstrom, Bourque, Potvin, Harvey, Coffey, Robinson.

Which of those is he better than?

All of them except Orr at his current trajectory.

 

[AvroArrow]

Both guys are legitimate franchise players. Give me the 7th overall pick + one of them.

 

[AvroArrow]

All of them except Orr at his current trajectory.

This makes no sense, we don't know what his career will look like at 30+ or 32+ or whatever, his biggest strength IMO is his skating ability, does he have the defensive skill and IQ like Lidstrom did to continue playing at an elite level at age 40? Will he be as conditioned as Lidstrom that late into his career to continue being an elite player at that age ?

There's absolutely nothing that suggests he will be and even if he was, Lidstroms greatest talent was his defensive skill, mainly with his stick and IQ. Makar's defensive abilities don't come anywhere near Lidstrom. Lidstrom was never as good as a skater as Makar but was phenomenal offensively as well.

I stroooooongly disagree with your statement. He has a LONG way to go before we can consider him better all time than those guys.

 

[hairylikebear]

All of them except Orr at his current trajectory.

I think Bedard's trajectory has been more impressive than Makar's.

 

[cneely]

All of them except Orr at his current trajectory.

This is what I'm talking about. Cale Makar is a great player. He's quickly becoming the most overrated player in the league.

We have people calling him better than Lidstrom and Bourque. Hell, Paul Coffey had more points in his D+2 year than Makar has ever had.

 

[Muffin]

This makes no sense, we don't know what his career will look like at 30+ or 32+ or whatever, his biggest strength IMO is his skating ability, does he have the defensive skill and IQ like Lidstrom did to continue playing at an elite level at age 40? Will he be as conditioned as Lidstrom that late into his career to continue being an elite player at that age ?

There's absolutely nothing that suggests he will be and even if he was, Lidstroms greatest talent was his defensive skill, mainly with his stick and IQ. Makar's defensive abilities don't come anywhere near Lidstrom. Lidstrom was never as good as a skater as Makar but was phenomenal offensively as well.

I stroooooongly disagree with your statement. He has a LONG way to go before we can consider him better all time than those guys.

I mean that goes for Bedard as well? All you can do is project these two players? If anything Makar has a longer track record we can use to project. This will be the 4th consecutive year he'll nominated for a Norris.

 

[AvroArrow]

I mean that goes for Bedard as well? All you can do is project these two players? If anything Makar has a longer track record we can use to project. This will be the 4th consecutive year he'll nominated for a Norris.

Obviously ? No one is making a claim Bedard will be top 5 all time, you're making a claim that Makar will and already is better than everyone not named Orr.

 

[Ncit3]

Isn't Makar like the highest scoring defenceman of all time at his number of games played? I remember him just edging out Bobby Orr for the fastest 300 points by a defenceman or whatever.

But he's not generational. But Bedard after 3/4 of a season is truly an elite generational type player.

HF posters are infatuated with upside. Let's see Bedard do this for 5 seasons and lead a team to a cup before he can be in the same conversation as Makar. Makar is obvious hurt this year and still is scoring at a rate of 1.2 PPG. Lest we forget one of these guys is also a Conn Smythe winner.

 

[Ncit3]

This is what I'm talking about. Cale Makar is a great player. He's quickly becoming the most overrated player in the league.

We have people calling him better than Lidstrom and Bourque. Hell, Paul Coffey had more points in his D+2 year than Makar has ever had.

I mean totally fair comparison. Coffey played in the most inflated stats era in NHL history alongside the greatest hockey player ever.

 

[Ncit3]

Orr, Lidstrom, Bourque, Potvin, Harvey, Coffey, Robinson.

Which of those is he better than?

He's only 25, only time will tell, but his raw talent is undeniably above a handful of those guys. The question is can Colorado sustain enough success over the years that his resume stacks up with the other guys. He already has more Conn Smythes than all of them outside of Lidstrom, Robinson, and Orr. Has a Norris already. Won a cup. He still has more resume to fill out but I'd say that at this point he's firmly at a pace above all but Orr and Lidstrom. Will he finish better than the rest? Nobody knows. Is he currently in the conversation as a superstar defender in the NHL? Hell yes he is.

I'm almost 40, I could be considered a bit of an oldhead when it comes to NHL players. I loved watching hockey in the mid-to-late 90s. I grew up with parents that loved watching hockey in the 80s and exposed me to the greats. But the problem I have is with a lot of oldheads only considering the "legends" and not realizing that legends are being born in front of our eyes now too. Cale Makar could be on that trajectory and if he's better than Harvey, Potvin, Coffey, and Robinson, and maybe even Bourque, so be it.

 

[Akrapovince]

Am I getting this right?

Your choice of Bedard/Makar or whoever falls into your lap plus a 7th overall?

Either way, I’ll take whoever falls into my lap plus another top prospect.

Or I’ll take whoever falls into my lap and trade the pick.

Bedard, trade 7th overall in a package for a defensemen.

Makar, trade 7th overall in a package for a centre.

 

[AKL]

Knowing what I know about Makar, the obvious answer to me is to take the #2 and another 7th overall.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Interesting how trading down is now leading the votes after being only ~25% of the first 50 votes or so.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

He's only 25, only time will tell, but his raw talent is undeniably above a handful of those guys. The question is can Colorado sustain enough success over the years that his resume stacks up with the other guys. He already has more Conn Smythes than all of them outside of Lidstrom, Robinson, and Orr. Has a Norris already. Won a cup. He still has more resume to fill out but I'd say that at this point he's firmly at a pace above all but Orr and Lidstrom. Will he finish better than the rest? Nobody knows. Is he currently in the conversation as a superstar defender in the NHL? Hell yes he is.

I'm almost 40, I could be considered a bit of an oldhead when it comes to NHL players. I loved watching hockey in the mid-to-late 90s. I grew up with parents that loved watching hockey in the 80s and exposed me to the greats. But the problem I have is with a lot of oldheads only considering the "legends" and not realizing that legends are being born in front of our eyes now too. Cale Makar could be on that trajectory and if he's better than Harvey, Potvin, Coffey, and Robinson, and maybe even Bourque, so be it.

To be fair, Makar is at a pace much better than Lidstrom's was at 25. Lidstrom wasn't a Norris finalist until he was 27, and didn't win his first until he was 30, with his Smythe coming the next year.

But, I'd be extremely surprised if Makar wins 6 Norris trophies in 7 years at any point in his career, let alone after his 30th birthday.

 

[cneely]

I mean totally fair comparison. Coffey played in the most inflated stats era in NHL history alongside the greatest hockey player ever.

Paul Coffey was a ridiculously good hockey player.

 

[cneely]

He's only 25, only time will tell, but his raw talent is undeniably above a handful of those guys.

Wait, what? Which of them?

The question is can Colorado sustain enough success over the years that his resume stacks up with the other guys. He already has more Conn Smythes than all of them outside of Lidstrom, Robinson, and Orr. Has a Norris already. Won a cup. He still has more resume to fill out but I'd say that at this point he's firmly at a pace above all but Orr and Lidstrom. Will he finish better than the rest? Nobody knows. Is he currently in the conversation as a superstar defender in the NHL? Hell yes he is.

Of course he's a superstar defender. He's not a better player than Ray Bourque. People forget how good Ray Bourque was. He regularly led his mediocre team in scoring, was an insanely good defender, and played 30 plus minutes a night. In 86-87 he led the Bruins in scoring by 23 points and was a plus 44.

I'm almost 40, I could be considered a bit of an oldhead when it comes to NHL players. I loved watching hockey in the mid-to-late 90s. I grew up with parents that loved watching hockey in the 80s and exposed me to the greats. But the problem I have is with a lot of oldheads only considering the "legends" and not realizing that legends are being born in front of our eyes now too. Cale Makar could be on that trajectory and if he's better than Harvey, Potvin, Coffey, and Robinson, and maybe even Bourque, so be it.

I watched all of those guys play hockey with the obvious exception of Harvey. I have no problem with anointing Makar a superstar; he is, without a doubt. He's not a top 5 defenceman of all time. That's totally overrating him.