C Mitchell Marner - London Knights, OHL (2015, 4th, TOR) II

[lanky]

Add to that top tier forwards are also found later in the draft and you just look silly. Forward or Defensemen the higher rated players and thus usually higher drafted players have higher chances of success. It's just a matter of preference.

You might want to look up the word irony.

Sorry, you're wrong. Look at a list of recent Norris winners and a list of recent Richard/Hart winners and make note of their draft positions.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sorry, you're wrong. Look at a list of recent Norris winners and a list of recent Richard/Hart winners and make note of their draft positions.

Art Ross winners don't count? Lol.

Martin St Louis - undrafted, won 2
Jamie Benn - 5th rounder

2 of the last 3 art ross winners were undrafted or out of the 5th round

 

[lanky]

Art Ross winners don't count? Lol.

Martin St Louis - undrafted, won 2
Jamie Benn - 5th rounder

2 of the last 3 art ross winners were undrafted or out of the 5th round

And 8 of the last 10 were picked in the top 5.

0 of the last 10 Norris trophies went to players picked in the top 5.

 

[King Mapes]

Forwards are typically easiest to predict. That's why.

 

[Sonic Disturbance]

Art Ross winners don't count? Lol.

Martin St Louis - undrafted, won 2
Jamie Benn - 5th rounder

2 of the last 3 art ross winners were undrafted or out of the 5th round

Yes, let's use a three-year sample size... if you look the top forwards in the league the past 10-15 years (just off the top of my head):

Crosby (1st)
Ovechkin (1st)
Malkin (2nd)
Stamkos (1st)
Tavares (1st)
Thornton (1st)
Jagr (5th)
Kane (1st)
Toews (3rd)
Hall (1st)
Lecavalier (1st)
Heatley (2nd)
Kovalchuk (1st)
Spezza (2nd)
Seguin (1st)
Forsberg (6th)
Lindros (1st)
Sundin (1st)
Modano (1st)
Kariya (4th)
Iginla (11th)
St. Louis (undrafted)
Datsyuk (very late)
Zetterberg (very late)
Alfredsson (very late)
Benn (late)

Yes, there are exceptions like the aforementioned Benn/St. Louis and others like Alfredsson Datsyuk, Zetterberg, but so many of the top-end forwards were drafted top-5. Compare this to D-man:

Keith (54th)
Weber (49th)
Doughty (2nd)
Karlsson (15th)
Lidstrom (53rd)
Pronger (2nd)
MacInnis (15th)
Stevens (5th)
Chara (56th)
Green (29th)
Blake (70th)
Subban (43rd)
Pietrangelo (4th)
Niedermayer (3rd)
Giordano (undrafted)
Letang (62nd)
Brodie (114th)

Far, far more variation. Yeah, you have Doughty, Niedermayer Pie and Pronger top-5. Then a whole slew of them in the late first/second and after.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes, let's use a three-year sample size... if you look the top forwards in the league the past 10-15 years (just off the top of my head):

Crosby (1st)
Ovechkin (1st)
Malkin (2nd)
Stamkos (1st)
Tavares (1st)
Thornton (1st)
Jagr (5th)
Kane (1st)
Toews (3rd)
Hall (1st)
Lecavalier (1st)
Heatley (2nd)
Kovalchuk (1st)
Spezza (2nd)
Seguin (1st)
Forsberg (6th)
Lindros (1st)
Sundin (1st)
Modano (1st)
Kariya (4th)
Iginla (11th)
St. Louis (undrafted)
Datsyuk (very late)
Zetterberg (very late)
Alfredsson (very late)
Benn (late)

Yes, there are exceptions like the aforementioned Benn/St. Louis and others like Alfredsson Datsyuk, Zetterberg, but so many of the top-end forwards were drafted top-5. Compare this to D-man:

Keith (54th)
Weber (49th)
Doughty (2nd)
Karlsson (15th)
Lidstrom (53rd)
Pronger (2nd)
MacInnis (15th)
Stevens (5th)
Chara (56th)
Green (29th)
Blake (70th)
Subban (43rd)
Pietrangelo (4th)
Niedermayer (3rd)
Giordano (undrafted)
Letang (62nd)
Brodie (114th)

Far, far more variation. Yeah, you have Doughty, Niedermayer Pie and Pronger top-5. Then a whole slew of them in the late first/second and after.

The forwards are pretty much all top 2 picks. We're talking about picks 3-5 . . . huge drop off from 1st overall picks and 4th overall picks. If you were to exclude 1/2 overall picks from both positions the variation looks strikingly similar.

But even then, you're excluding a ton of forwards in your list lol, its like your consciously selecting top 5 picks or something (Taylor Hall, really?)

Some of the best forwards of the last 15 years came from outside the top 10.

Getzlaf
Bondra
Hull
Perry
Bure
Robitaille
Savard
B Richards
Hossa
T Johnson
Parise
Giroux
Palat
Eberle
Havlat
Kopitar
Giroux
Elias
Gaudreau
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Kucherov
Alfredsson

 

[SingleAallStar]

We're talki
Some of the best forwards of the last 15 years came from outside the top 10.

Getzlaf
Bondra
Hull
Perry
Bure
Robitaille
Savard
B Richards
Hossa
T Johnson
Parise
Giroux
Palat
Eberle
Havlat
Kopitar
Giroux
Elias
Gaudreau
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Kucherov
Alfredsson

Robitaille? that is streching it pretty far back. Pretty sure Kopitar was top 10. Bure was easily top 3 except nobody was sure if he would come over.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

We get it, you wanted Hanifin. It's time to get over it, I swear all you do is rip Marner on the Leafs board and now you're here.

By his backwards logic if we drafted Hanifin we shouldn't expect a franchise guy and only hope he becomes a top 4 D man . What a joke.

 

[Bad News Bears]

i remember another touted player draft by a toronto sports franchise that had the nickname of the magician. He was andrea barfnani...wonder who he's playing for now.

f**k brooklyn!

 

[Sundinisagod]

Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, JVR, Brown, Kadri, Gauthier
Rielly, Gardiner, Harrington, Loov, Dermott, Percy
Bernier, Bibeau

Not bad. Add Chychrun to that list and we're good to go.

Could use a Lawson Crouse type on top of that.

 

[Sundinisagod]

As for drafting defenders high, we're seeing improved scouting, they seem to be getting the high D picks right more often these days. It's less of a crapshoot with defenders than it used to be.

 

[Sundinisagod]

The part where you said he won't be NHL ready.

It's not a foregone conclusion that he'll make the NHL the next year. He'll be too good for junior, but maybe not physically mature enough for the big show, and with Babcock as coach the tendency has been to give prospects extra time to develop.

 

[Shwaguy*]

Could use a Lawson Crouse type on top of that.

I don't think Management would use a high pick on a Lawson Crouse/Max Jones type pick. So if we do get that guy it'll probably be a 2nd/3rd round pick that becomes that.

Or who knows, he doesn't have the mean streak. But maybe GOAT becomes something along those lines?

Julien Gauthier with our 2nd first next year could be a possibility as well.

 

[one77]

Could use a Lawson Crouse type on top of that.

Agreed. I was hoping we would make a deal with Florida and draft Crouse. He's PERFECT for this team.

 

[BlueBaron]

Sorry, you're wrong. Look at a list of recent Norris winners and a list of recent Richard/Hart winners and make note of their draft positions.

Sorry I'm not. You just chose a very self serving criteria. Are Doughty, Hedberg and Petro not among the best in the game or are they failures because they did not get the subjective Norris votes ? For every star defenseman picked out of the top ten I am sure I can name you a star forward. Only one trophy matters, it's called the Stanley Cup.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I don't think Management would use a high pick on a Lawson Crouse/Max Jones type pick. So if we do get that guy it'll probably be a 2nd/3rd round pick that becomes that.

Or who knows, he doesn't have the mean streak. But maybe GOAT becomes something along those lines?

Julien Gauthier with our 2nd first next year could be a possibility as well.

Is Julien the brother of Freddy?

 

[Shwaguy*]

Is Julien the brother of Freddy?

He is not.

Alex Nylander is Willie's brother though

 

[Aceboogie]

The forwards are pretty much all top 2 picks. We're talking about picks 3-5 . . . huge drop off from 1st overall picks and 4th overall picks. If you were to exclude 1/2 overall picks from both positions the variation looks strikingly similar.

But even then, you're excluding a ton of forwards in your list lol, its like your consciously selecting top 5 picks or something (Taylor Hall, really?)

Some of the best forwards of the last 15 years came from outside the top 10.

Getzlaf
Bondra
Hull
Perry
Bure
Robitaille
Savard
B Richards
Hossa
T Johnson
Parise
Giroux
Palat
Eberle
Havlat
Kopitar
Giroux
Elias
Gaudreau
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Kucherov
Alfredsson

Hahaha Gaudreau, uhhh what? Hall was at least ppg+

 

[HarrisonFord]

The forwards are pretty much all top 2 picks. We're talking about picks 3-5 . . . huge drop off from 1st overall picks and 4th overall picks. If you were to exclude 1/2 overall picks from both positions the variation looks strikingly similar.

But even then, you're excluding a ton of forwards in your list lol, its like your consciously selecting top 5 picks or something (Taylor Hall, really?)

Some of the best forwards of the last 15 years came from outside the top 10.

Getzlaf
Bondra
Hull
Perry
Bure
Robitaille
Savard
B Richards
Hossa
T Johnson
Parise
Giroux
Palat
Eberle
Havlat
Kopitar
Giroux
Elias
Gaudreau
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Kucherov
Alfredsson

It's really weird that you talk about guys drafted in the last 15 years, and then go on to list Bondra, Hull, Bure, Robitaille and Savard.

Would you like to play the likelihood game here? By % of the top 10 going on to become top 6F/top4D/#1G vs. 11-30?

2000: 40% vs. 25%
2001: 60% vs. 10%
2002: 70% vs. 15%
2003: 90% vs. 45%
2004: 50% vs. 20%
2005: 40% vs. 25%
2006: 70% vs. 30%
2007: 70% vs. 20%
2008: 60% vs. 30%
2009: 70% vs. 25%
2010: 50% vs. 40%

2011 onwards is still too early to tell.

And in those drafts (outside of goalies because they're a different animal), the best player in the draft was found in the top 10 82% of the time. The top 3 players 73% of the time. Even more notable is if you look at the numbers from 2008 onwards.

With how much better scouting is getting, and how much more focused on it teams are, you're getting far less gems slipping through the cracks.