C Frederik Gauthier (2013, 21st, TOR)

[FLYguy3911]

Ace on the dot? You realize he actually hasn't been great on the dot over his Q career. His win rate was what this year...52-53%? This myth keeps persisting probably fueled by his WJC wins.

I was trying to be nice. I didn't look at the numbers. The Q is the only league that tracks faceoff stats so kind of hard to compare him to other prospects (not to mention trust them). This is the first year I watched him extensively and I thought he was pretty good in the circle.

He averaged 27 faceoff opportunities a game which was tops in the league by a good margin. He practically took every difficult faceoff for Rimouski.

I don't think he's anything but a number 4 center in the NHL, but I think he will be a good faceoff guy at the next level.

 

[FlyRoutine]

But no one is saying it was a wasted pick because couts is a bottom 6 player.

Dont you think, GMs choose their pick in context with what the player could become at his peak, or what type of player he is going to be at age 22?
As I already mentioned, Coots has still easily 2nd line upside. I am not so sure about Gauthier though, at least he hasnt shown it yet.

Absolutely goats hasn't done anything yet, criticize him for that,

I never criticized him, just compared him to Couturier, because you found it "funny" that Coots gets more praised compared to Gauthier.
I simply wanted to explain you, why he is generally more praised compared to Gauthier.
That wasnt a knock at Gauthier at all.

but don't say he was a wasted pick because you don't use a first rounder on a defensive 3c when couts is just that, and a top ten pick to boot.

I havent said that either.

 

[FanHabtic*]

Well Gauthier was ranked near 20 on all lists so not sure why he should have gone in the 2nd round.

Many players drop in the draft due to shortcomings in their game. With Gauthier, the biggest knock was skating and offense. Those are important attributes for 1st round picks.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

FWIW Leafs came out and said he projects to be a 3rd line C right after he was picked

IMO they were going for need instead of taking BPA when they made the pick, and I think they were looking for a shutdown type of C after the way they came down vs Bruins in the playoffs. It's too bad, because apparently they were also very high on Poirer and Burakovsky, who were selected after Gauthier. Nice to see Gauthier playing well in the Memorial Cup though

 

[FanHabtic*]

FWIW Leafs came out and said he projects to be a 3rd line C right after he was picked

IMO they were going for need instead of taking BPA when they made the pick, and I think they were looking for a shutdown type of C after the way they came down vs Bruins in the playoffs. It's too bad, because apparently they were also very high on Poirer and Burakovsky, who were selected after Gauthier. Nice to see Gauthier playing well in the Memorial Cup though

I think it was a somewhat cowardly pick. Gauthier was a very safe pick. I don't think there is any question that he will be a 3rd or 4th line NHL centerman. Therefore he won't be a bust. But the Leafs of all teams should be swinging for the fences as they need high-end talent.

 

[LilySmoov]

I think it was a somewhat cowardly pick. Gauthier was a very safe pick. I don't think there is any question that he will be a 3rd or 4th line NHL centerman. Therefore he won't be a bust. But the Leafs of all teams should be swinging for the fences as they need high-end talent.

We also need guys - especially forwards - who know how to play defense.

We suck pretty much from from top-to-bottom. While we do need high-end talent, we also need a potential defensive stalwart or two.

 

[FanHabtic*]

We also need guys - especially forwards - who know how to play defense.

We suck pretty much from from top-to-bottom. While we do need high-end talent, we also need a potential defensive stalwart or two.

You can draft those in the 2nd round. Or trade for them. Or sign them as a UFA.

 

[Liminality]

You can draft those in the 2nd round. Or trade for them. Or sign them as a UFA.

I've always thought there's a difference between a good 3rd line centre and a great 3rd line centre. Those depth guys you can count on when the going gets tough and are the back bone of your shutdown lines. Leafs have gotten numerous ones from FA and none have really stuck. If Gauthier works out to be a great 3rd liner who knows his role then I think the pick was worth it.

 

[Hynh]

He practically took every difficult faceoff for Rimouski.

I wish people would make an advanced stat for FO%. It's insane that we count wins against Toews/Bergeron types the same as wins against wingers or Malkin.

 

[Diatomic]

I've always thought there's a difference between a good 3rd line centre and a great 3rd line centre. Those depth guys you can count on when the going gets tough and are the back bone of your shutdown lines. Leafs have gotten numerous ones from FA and none have really stuck. If Gauthier works out to be a great 3rd liner who knows his role then I think the pick was worth it.

I kinda agree, but still great 3rd line centers can be found and can be had for fairly cheap. I'd say Bolland for us was a great 3rd line center, and he was young too when we acquired him, plus and he only cost some 'meh' picks.

 

[Whileee]

I think it was a somewhat cowardly pick. Gauthier was a very safe pick. I don't think there is any question that he will be a 3rd or 4th line NHL centerman. Therefore he won't be a bust. But the Leafs of all teams should be swinging for the fences as they need high-end talent.

But would he be a 3rd or 4th line centre on a good NHL team?

How many teams would see Gauthier as their future 3rd or 4th line centre?

As an example, it doesn't look like he would make it on the Jets, who were a playoff team but not a contender. They have a couple of big young prospects (Lowry and Copp, drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds) who both are tracking as better prospects than Gauthier.

 

[Shwaguy*]

But would he be a 3rd or 4th line centre on a good NHL team?

How many teams would see Gauthier as their future 3rd or 4th line centre?

As an example, it doesn't look like he would make it on the Jets, who were a playoff team but not a contender. They have a couple of big young prospects (Lowry and Copp, drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds) who both are tracking as better prospects than Gauthier.

Yet Gauthier will still be better than both of them.

 

[ottawah]

he wasn't a wasted pick, but again at 8th overall you are kind of expecting a top 6 player.

Actually this is where many people just do not get the draft.

At 8th you literally hope to get an NHLer. I know that really sounds harsh, but the stats back it up.

http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

The stats are through 20 years of drafting, decent sample. 8th overall gets you a fringe to regular NHLer, far from a second liner.

The best forward taken at 8th overall in that timeframe was a guy who had 39 goals over an 800 game career. Thats an average of 4 goals per year. And he was considered the second best in that 20 year period.

Have a look at that article. It shows just was an absolute crap shoot the draft is outside of the top 5.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

Actually this is where many people just do not get the draft.

At 8th you literally hope to get an NHLer. I know that really sounds harsh, but the stats back it up.

http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

The stats are through 20 years of drafting, decent sample. 8th overall gets you a fringe to regular NHLer, far from a second liner.

The best forward taken at 8th overall in that timeframe was a guy who had 39 goals over an 800 game career. Thats an average of 4 goals per year. And he was considered the second best in that 20 year period.

Have a look at that article. It shows just was an absolute crap shoot the draft is outside of the top 5.

Exactly.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Leafs wanted a Sean Couturier type of player I think, and saw some pretty good stats for a rookie with huge size and potential to be a late bloomer.

Don't get me wrong, Gauthier will probably play in the NHL, but I would be absolutely shocked if he put up more than 15 goals in a season in his career.

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

If Gauthier was taken 10 picks later (2nd round) , people would be excited. Take a look as LA , you need more than offensive top six forwards to win championships. He will never be the most exciting player but I think he turns out to be an effective third liner with an important role on the team.

 

[Whileee]

Yet Gauthier will still be better than both of them.

I highly doubt he'll be as good as either of them. Lowry is already a strong NHL #3 C, and has shown much more skill and aggressiveness than Gauthier ever has (also named WHL player of the year in his draft+2). He's already put up very impressive defensive / possession numbers in the NHL. Copp also has better credentials, including a much stronger performance at the WJHC than Gauthier. Other than draft position, name one objective reason that Gauthier should be considered a better prospect than either of them.

 

[Canucks LB]

If Gauthier was taken 10 picks later (2nd round) , people would be excited. Take a look as LA , you need more than offensive top six forwards to win championships. He will never be the most exciting player but I think he turns out to be an effective third liner with an important role on the team.

His biggest problem is that the guy skates in quicksand. He needs to fix that part of him if he wants to be an NHL regular.

 

[firstemperor]

His biggest problem is that the guy skates in quicksand. He needs to fix that part of him if he wants to be an NHL regular.

He's gotten better at it. I was pretty down on him but his skating has improved significantly and you can say the same for other players (like Lucic, Chara, Hal Gill) that have made their games work despite being poor skaters. I'm not saying he's comparable to a Lucic. I'm simply stating it's not an absolute requisite for a guy of his size and wingspan/reach.

If he were a smaller projected top 6 player than yes, it's a huge concern.

I would say his absolute ceiling is a Hanzal type. I will be glad if he is an effective bottom 6 player that can play shut-down minutes, win a lot of battles on both ends down-low, and is good on the dot. To me, he remains a mystery. He can become a Brian Boyle type or he can easily be a career AHL-er. His development curve moving forward will define his career but he does fit the typical late-bloomer prototype IMO.

With that said, I've never been a huge fan of Morrison and co. and hope this new regiment gets their act together and drafts well, consistently (i.e like L.A)

 

[FlyRoutine]

Exactly.

No response to post #952? So I suppose you dont think its funny anymore?

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

His biggest problem is that the guy skates in quicksand. He needs to fix that part of him if he wants to be an NHL regular.

Although his skating isn't great , it's come along way the last couple of seasons. I remember watching him in his rookie year in the Q and is was a noticeable flaw. Now you have to look to notice it. That's one of the main reasons I'm excited for next season when Gauthier is with the Marlies. Gauthier is going to be surrounded by some professional trainers and coaches. I think some time with TO's skating coach will do him wonders. Only time will tell and regardless of what team he's drafted by, I hate to see a kid ripped apart before he's given a fair chance.

 

[Hynh]

Actually this is where many people just do not get the draft.

At 8th you literally hope to get an NHLer. I know that really sounds harsh, but the stats back it up.

http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

The stats are through 20 years of drafting, decent sample. 8th overall gets you a fringe to regular NHLer, far from a second liner.

The best forward taken at 8th overall in that timeframe was a guy who had 39 goals over an 800 game career. Thats an average of 4 goals per year. And he was considered the second best in that 20 year period.

Have a look at that article. It shows just was an absolute crap shoot the draft is outside of the top 5.

Are you referring to Matvichuk? He of the 796 GP, 39-139-178 stat line? He's a defenceman.

And in that study 8th overall is 1 of only 2 picks in the top 14 that have an average rating below 5. To me this indicates an issue with the mentality of the team picking 8th. They probably feel that they are far enough back of the top of the draft that they can start going off the board. Obviously with Couturier that wasn't the case since he was being considered a lock for the top 5 all the way up to the draft.

It's also kind of silly to say that Couturier isn't a top 6 forward, given that he was 140th this year and 133rd the year before in league scoring, meaning his average finish on a average team would have been 4th or 5th among forwards. This while playing in a defensive role with more PK time than PP time.

8th overall also has a 55% chance of getting a top 9 forward/top 6 defenceman or better, with a large number of complete busts skewing the average rating.

 

[nbwingsfan]

But no one is saying it was a wasted pick because couts is a bottom 6 player.

This argument that a first round pick must be top six is kinda flawed, IMO. And couts validates that.

Absolutely goats hasn't done anything yet, criticize him for that, but don't say he was a wasted pick because you don't use a first rounder on a defensive 3c when couts is just that, and a top ten pick to boot.

The issue with this is that Couts was drafted to be a top 6 C and showed plenty of potential that he unfortunately has not lived up to yet. Hell he led the Q in scoring during his draft year.

Meanwhile Gauthier has never showed any indication that he will be anymore than a 4th liner at best it seems.

 

[ottawah]

Are you referring to Matvichuk? He of the 796 GP, 39-139-178 stat line? He's a defenceman.

And in that study 8th overall is 1 of only 2 picks in the top 14 that have an average rating below 5. To me this indicates an issue with the mentality of the team picking 8th. They probably feel that they are far enough back of the top of the draft that they can start going off the board. Obviously with Couturier that wasn't the case since he was being considered a lock for the top 5 all the way up to the draft.

It's also kind of silly to say that Couturier isn't a top 6 forward, given that he was 140th this year and 133rd the year before in league scoring, meaning his average finish on a average team would have been 4th or 5th among forwards. This while playing in a defensive role with more PK time than PP time.

8th overall also has a 55% chance of getting a top 9 forward/top 6 defenceman or better, with a large number of complete busts skewing the average rating.

Yes, I was thinking someone else, he was a D man.

I agree with your assesments of the 55%, my point is "expecting" to get a top 6 forward with the 8th pick, which was the initial claim, is not beared out by past drafting results. Argubably you cannot even expect to get a top 9 if it happens only 55% of the time.

I'd think a better comment would be "anticipate to get a top 9 forward". Maybe "hope"

I honestly think people expect all top 10 picks will have NHL first line potential. The fact is the draft turns into a crap shoot really fast.


I know my only viewing that year of Gauthier was the U18, maybe a small sample size, but to see him drafted ahead of Baptiste, Klimcuck, Dauphin seemed almost mind boggling to me.

 

[NylanderBros]

He looked great in the memorial cup, needs to improve his skating still but I can see him being a big penalty kill player for babcock that he loves to have.