Rumor: Byfuglien to Detroit or Philadelphia

[ajmidd12]

No way Buff is traded, especially if we're anywhere near a playoff spot. We're 2 seasons in now and it's very clear that he's the heart and soul of this team. He's got that rare gift to be able to take over a hockey game if he feels like it. Love his leadership too, he keeps the guys laughing in the room but at the same time knows when to buckle down and play. If teams are scouting our D it's Stuart, Postma, and Hainsey on the block.

They can have Hainsey. He has played a bit better but still not part of our long term plans.

 

[jetsfan8]

Star players and game breakers can be two different things. A lot of star players are game breakers, but they are much more than just game breakers.

The last two Stanley cup winners do not support your point.

The Bruins scratched their best game breaking forward most of their Stanley Cup run.

The Kings have a lot of talent players but I don't think many people would identify any of them as outright game breakers.

Crosby, I don't view his main value to be as a game breaker. Crosby is an extremely hard working player and probably the best possession forward in the game. Without the occasional flash Crosby would still be one of the most dominant forwards in the league due to his ability to tilt the ice in his team's favour.

Ovechkin is a prime example of why I don't believe a player should be untouchable just because he is a game breaker. Is Ovechkin no longer a game breaker? Did he magically lose his talent? His speed? His shot?

Absolutely not, he's just not applying himself. Because the Caps' were designed to have a disproportionate amount of their offence run through him they're struggling as a result. To me this is exactly why a team should not be built to rely on game breakers.

Anyways, I'm not saying that having players with game breaking ability is bad. I'm saying that game breaking ability alone is not enough to make a player untouchable in my eyes. Especially to a team that is not a contender.

chara, lucic, richards, carter, kopitar

those are star players, and thats why those teas won the cup

 

[garret9]

Purely on the statistical side I am not aware of any such analysis in hockey (I don't know how it would really be done). I know that it has been done in basketball at both the NBA and NCAA levels. Those studies have shown that std deviation varies a lot player to player.

On the conceptual level I firmly believe that individual performance varies a great deal game to game, depending on a variety of factors.

It wasn't the level of st deviation I was wondering about, but whether the st. dev is different between different players, and if so, does it tend to correlate with the average or not.

But... that's neat to hear they've done stuff on basketball.
I just wonder if sometimes consistency is a narrative that sometimes gets forced by media types more times than it exists.

 

[PaperRockChamp]

What did he say?

Then again it's Holmegren, Mr. NowayITradeRichardsorCarter

- Doesn't want to shake up the core
- Believes in his roster
- Trade talks of a big move are pure speculation
- No plans for any major trades

 

[RECCE]

Well, looks like that was all much ado about nothing...

 

[Do or Die]

Well, first ..you have to compare Buff... to the other potential point-a-game, 260 lb defensemen, in the league....

Then.....uh, nevermind.

 

[almostawake]

It wasn't the level of st deviation I was wondering about, but whether the st. dev is different between different players, and if so, does it tend to correlate with the average or not.

But... that's neat to hear they've done stuff on basketball.
I just wonder if sometimes consistency is a narrative that sometimes gets forced by media types more times than it exists.

Yup, the basketball research showed that within, for example, a group of players that average 20 (+/- 1) points a game, there is wide distribution of standard deviations for game by game point total and FG%. There is also considerable evidence that players with smaller sigma are 'better' (their wins over replacement are much higher).

I mean, it is a bit chicken and egg to be honest though, guys with large sigma tend to be volume shooters that most good teams wouldn't even play.

In hockey it would be nearly impossible to quantify such things because the typical output statistics are sparse. Although it may work for shots per game. You know a fair bit about advanced statistics, has anyone ever looked at the second moment of players' shots per game distribution, for example?

Regarding the narrative question I cannot say anything about hockey but I can give an example from baseball. Using pitch tracking and classification some people have been able to show that players that have a significant weakness against certain pitches and locations tend to experience larger fluctuations in (for example) batting average on different time scales (5, 10, 20 games etc.). Basically in quantitative finance lingo, players with greater strengths and weaknesses have a higher volatility.

Obviously this is very difficult to map on to hockey, but there does exist some evidence that in competitive systems the mean is relevant in addition to the mean.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

I made a beautiful analogy over on the main trade board but I guess it was deemed a little too risque. Pity... I rather enjoyed it.

 

[almostawake]

chara, lucic, richards, carter, kopitar

those are star players, and thats why those teas won the cup

Ya, great, except I specifically prefaced my comment with:

Star players and game breakers can be two different things. A lot of star players are game breakers, but they are much more than just game breakers.

If you're not going to read my post well enough to actually reply to the content you're better off just saving your keyboard the wear.

Of the players you listed at the most Carter is the only player that would primarily be described as a game breaker. The others are all players who's value are primarily derived from the incremental advantages they build up over the course of a game. In the case of Lucic I'd go so far as to say his primary value is derived from the incremental advantages he accumulates over the course of a 7 game series.

 

[jetsfan8]

Ya, great, except I specifically prefaced my comment with:



If you're not going to read my post well enough to actually reply to the content you're better off just saving your keyboard the wear.

Of the players you listed at the most Carter is the only player that would primarily be described as a game breaker. The others are all players who's value are primarily derived from the incremental advantages they build up over the course of a game. In the case of Lucic I'd go so far as to say his primary value is derived from the incremental advantages he accumulates over the course of a 7 game series.

the gamebreaker/star is just something you classify players as in your opinion, i have nothing wrong with that

but in my opinion, teams win championships because of star/gamebreaker/awesome/good/smart/talent/1stround/superstar.......
whatever you want to call them, players that are one step above the rest
the "elite" group of nhlers if you will

and i stand by my point every cup winner has a player a step avove the rest, whatever it is you would like to call them

 

[almostawake]

the gamebreaker/star is just something you classify players as in your opinion, i have nothing wrong with that

but in my opinion, teams win championships because of star/gamebreaker/awesome/good/smart/talent/1stround/superstar.......
whatever you want to call them, players that are one step above the rest
the "elite" group of nhlers if you will

and i stand by my point every cup winner has a player a step avove the rest, whatever it is you would like to call them

Ok, so if that is your definition how does Byfuglien fall into that category at this point in his career?

 

[jetsfan8]

Ok, so if that is your definition how does Byfuglien fall into that category at this point in his career?

he is a step above the rest
teams plan their gameplan around him, they are scared of him, they know every time hes on the ice hes a huge threat

those players are the players im talking about, buff is one of those players

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Well, first ..you have to compare Buff... to the other potential point-a-game, 260 lb defensemen, in the league....

Then.....uh, nevermind.

no other player like him in the NHL, and that makes him hard to trade

 

[Scheifele55]

If the return is there, I would move him in a second and so would Cheveldayoff. This team isn't a Stanley Cup contender and that is enough reason to explore all options. I heard that Philly and Detroit inquired about him. I was curious what he would get in return not whether the Jets would trade him or if its a good idea.