Okay thats fair. .
But lets say they miss playoffs again and Drai gets 60-70 pts.
Is Oil nation happy w. That contract still knowing MCD is about to enter 12.5 range and litterally not much wiggle room left after talbot amd.others get re signed.
I mean obviously no one is going to be happy if the team misses playoffs, but if Draisaitl finishes this season playing centre and scored 70P I don't think anyone is going to be unhappy with the contract. It won't be his fault, it will be a slow start and poor goaltending+special teams early in the year that cost us playoffs if we do miss, not Draisaitl or his contract. If there's any contract to be unhappy with its probably the Russell contract going forward, but even that becomes a modified NTC in 2019 when Talbot needs to be re-signed.
As for your concern regarding the cap, its not nearly as bleak as you think it is. Yes McDavid jumps from 3.75 to 12.5 next year, a 7.775M increase. But, the Oilers also shed 2.6M from Faynes contract and 1M from the Korpikoski buyout. That results in just over 4M in cap hit, and the cap is expected to rise between 3 and 7M next season. The Oilers also already have over 6M in current cap space, and can further shed money in a few different ways. One would be to not re-sign Letestu (or sign him cheaper), or trade Kassian/Strome if needed. Cammalleri won't be back and can be replaced with a cheaper option internally as a 4th line/13th forward. They could let Maroon walk if he prices himself out and replace him internally with an ELC player like Yamamoto or Benson, or a cheap UFA 1 year deal.
I'm not sure how much of a raise you expect out of Talbot or Nurse, but Talbot's already making 4.16, so if he goes up to 6M thats not even a 2M increase (and thats a year and a half away). If they decide to sign Nurse long-term I'd guess he'd get somewhere in the 4-4.5 range, or he could likely be bridged for less than 3M. I just don't see major issues with the cap.