Husko
Registered User
There may be outlier examples that say otherwise, but if you compare top 5 pick QBs to QBs taken 6-15 to QBs taken 16-32, it’s pretty clear the higher you pick your QB the better. Second half QBs bust well over 50% of the time.
Buffalo Bills Talk 2018 - The Offseason
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I'd be fine with Rudolph or Jackson in the 2nd round, but neither will be there by the time we pick. Taking either at #22 or god forbid at #12 seems like too much of a reach. Sit tight, see how the draft plays out. The Browns, Jets, and Broncos will take a QB. Whomever slips out of that group could then be the target. A small trade up to get ahead of the Dolphins might be all that is then required. No ridiculous overpayment like the Jets paid. I'd imagine getting to #2 would cost both 1st's and next years 1st, which is just way too rich for my blood.
What does Jets' trade mean for top-3 picks? (2:52)
Adam Schefter joins SportsCenter and explains that Jets moving up to the 3rd pick means there will be a battle for quarterbacks at the top of the draft.
Adam Schefter joins SportsCenter and explains that Jets moving up to the 3rd pick means there will be a battle for quarterbacks at the top of the draft.
Mike Rodak
Jets box out Bills in quarterback race by trading up to No. 3
With the Jets nabbing the draft's No. 3 pick, the Bills will have to pay a hefty price if they intend to jump their rival and grab their preferred QB.
Your move, Buffalo Bills.
The New York Jets got an almost six-week jump on the Bills before April's draft, trading the No. 6 overall pick and three second-round selections (two in 2018 and one in 2019) to the Indianapolis Colts for the No. 3 overall pick.
Jets box out Bills in quarterback race by trading up to No. 3
With the Jets nabbing the draft's No. 3 pick, the Bills will have to pay a hefty price if they intend to jump their rival and grab their preferred QB.
Your move, Buffalo Bills.
The New York Jets got an almost six-week jump on the Bills before April's draft, trading the No. 6 overall pick and three second-round selections (two in 2018 and one in 2019) to the Indianapolis Colts for the No. 3 overall pick.
JThorne
Stop accepting failure
MayDay
Registered User
Aaron Rodgers was drafted #24 overall.
You could get a great quarterback anywhere in the draft. And QBs taken at the top bust pretty often too.
Whatever the Bills do, they should be smart. Don't pay a king's ransom, and don't reach. If you can't easily get one of the top QBs, don't try to force it. Maybe Mason Rudolph will turn out to be the best of the bunch. No one really knows.
Chad Thundercock
Slayer
SundherDome
Y'all have to much power
TheStorm
Registered User
Do they wait it out for the draft and see who is left at 5 and try to deal with Denver if their guy is still there.
This year seems tough to know who is going where. If the Browns really take Allen then it seems worth to blow a lot of picks on Darnold and trade with the Giants.
If not, take Jackson and load up your team with this load of picks. They can just about address every position of weakness with a top 90 selection.
Let Jackson learn to not get killed during a redshirt year, and give Macarrooni has talent to prove himself with.
This year seems tough to know who is going where. If the Browns really take Allen then it seems worth to blow a lot of picks on Darnold and trade with the Giants.
If not, take Jackson and load up your team with this load of picks. They can just about address every position of weakness with a top 90 selection.
Let Jackson learn to not get killed during a redshirt year, and give Macarrooni has talent to prove himself with.
CaptPantalones
Registered User
At this rate, I'd eather wait and see if we can get to between 4 and 7. All 4 Qbs are about even and I don't see the Broncos taking one. Let's see what drops
SundherDome
Y'all have to much power
This might be the year that 5 QBs go in the first five picks. I have been all in on Rosen but Darnold is growing on me.
Jesus. This is the same argument about not tanking we just went through as a fan base.
Yea. You can get good / elite / hall of fame players later in the draft. It’s a crapshoot. “Tom Brady was a 6th rounder”. Datsyk went in the fifth. Who cares. Everyone knows the best players are concentrated at the top of the draft. This is not debatable. This goes for any sport: NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA. It doesn’t matter.
At the end of the day there’s one way to increase your odds of landing a franchise defining player. That’s at the top of the draft.
NotABadPeriod
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From now on, every time someone mentions Aaron Rodgers's draft position I am going to counter with JP Losman.
Husko
Registered User
Yes, as I said there are outliers. But if you look at the success rate in each bracket, teams find success more often at the top of the round. It’s just fact.
Husko
Registered User
Yep, that draft should be the cautionary tale for the “just grab the guy that falls” aka Mike Schoppe narrative.
La Canfora: Here are the winners and losers from the blockbuster Jets-Colts trade
The Browns are sitting pretty and the Jets should be able to finally get their franchise QB
At this point I'd bet even money that the first five picks of the draft go: QB, RB/Pass Rusher, QB, QB, QB (yeah, four of the fop five picks are quarterbacks), setting the stage for a wild draft full of trades and plot twists. Here's a look at who I believe stands to gain the most from the swap:
The Browns are sitting pretty and the Jets should be able to finally get their franchise QB
At this point I'd bet even money that the first five picks of the draft go: QB, RB/Pass Rusher, QB, QB, QB (yeah, four of the fop five picks are quarterbacks), setting the stage for a wild draft full of trades and plot twists. Here's a look at who I believe stands to gain the most from the swap:
Chad Thundercock
Slayer
Since Kelly, they've never really went out and got a guy they wanted. It's been more of "We need a QB this year, and that's it", which is unfortunately what they've boxed themselves into again...
2004, rumor is they were desperately trying to trade for Ben. Then forced themselves into Losman.
2013, they felt comfortable trading down below numerous QB needy teams and still getting EJ.
Husko
Registered User
Panthaz89
Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
that's 4-5 busts waiting to happen my bet is either 1 or none of these guys pan out
Husko
Registered User
Panthaz89
Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
my opinion which usually pans out kind of like how 1 or 2 QBs tend to actually be good when 5 or so get taken in the first two rounds.....and none of these guys aren't exactly as good as Watson was for the NFL throwing wise(which was hilarious to hear critics somehow say his was bad). Darnold is the funniest of them all considering how inefficient he is compared to the others. Only one with a REAL chance is Mayfield but he has an attitude problem which means he might not be looking to work as hard in the NFL.
Husko
Registered User
Here's the numbers I alluded to above. First round QBs over the past 20 drafts (excluding last year because too early to tell):
Top 5
Franchise: 11 (42%)
Competent Starter: 7 (27%)
Bust: 8 (31%)
6-15
Franchise: 1 (10%)
Competent Starter: 4 (40%)
Bust: 5 (50%)
16-32
Franchise: 1 (6%)
Competent Starter: 4 (25%)
Bust: 11 (69%)
And that is why I want to go to the top and get the guy they think is the best instead of just taking whichever QB falls. The best guys go first more often than they don't.
Top 5
Franchise: 11 (42%)
Competent Starter: 7 (27%)
Bust: 8 (31%)
6-15
Franchise: 1 (10%)
Competent Starter: 4 (40%)
Bust: 5 (50%)
16-32
Franchise: 1 (6%)
Competent Starter: 4 (25%)
Bust: 11 (69%)
And that is why I want to go to the top and get the guy they think is the best instead of just taking whichever QB falls. The best guys go first more often than they don't.
Husko
Registered User
In the last 20 years, here is every time 5 or more QBs have been taken in the first round rounds, including number taken (denominator) and how many have been good (numerator):
2014: 3/5 (counting Bortles as 'not good')
2012: 2/5
2011: 3/6
2007: 0/5
2006: 2/5
1999: 3/6
So usually it's actually 2 or 3. But tell me more about how your opinion usually pans out.
Panthaz89
Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Their careers will tell everyone...and the jury is still out on 2012+ QBs really...so and getting a competent QB isn't really going to do anything considering the Bills WRs suck...Tyrod was already competent. People need to be more realistic with QBs instead of being so optimistic. A few good years isn't good for a top pick as they are expected to stay with your franchise til the end. Who the heck are you including other than Newton and Dalton in the 2011 draft? Gabbert is bad and Kaepernick is basically out of the league at this point. most of your QBs that you included still have a great chance of fizzling out at which point it wouldn't of been worth the pick.
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