Buffalo Bills Talk 2018 - The Offseason

[Der Jaeger]

I think the supporting cast argument for a rookie QB is irrelevant for a couple reasons. The first reason is that I’d hope the Bills wouldn’t play him immediately. The second is it’s not that bad.

O-line: Center to LT is solid. Dawkins played well enough to be at LT again next season or even move to RG/RT. Incognito and Wood are solid. Groy is a starter who is a back up. Miller can still develop. And the Bills have options with Glenn. LT, RT, or trade. So, they need 1 or two players here depending on what they do with Glenn. It’s not bad. A Dawkins-Incognito-Wood-Groy-Glenn line works.

Tight end: Clay and O’Leary are a good 1-2 combo who have different skill sets. Unless the Bills are moving Clay’s contract, not much need here.

Running back: Bills need a better back up. Fortunately, rookie RBs make great back ups, and teams can get them deep into the draft. Otherwise, Bills are fine here.

Receiver: Bills have a basketball team at receiver. Looks a lot like the Chargers receivers from around 2007-2010. Lots of jump balls and contested throws that the receiver wins. Taylor is a very safe QB so he doesn’t throw a ton of 50/50 balls. Put on video of Philip Rivers in 2007 to see what the Bills receiving corps could be. I’d add a speed receiver at some point. But this isn’t a priority. Having a healthy Matthews and a healthy Benjamin, with their size and wingspan, is exactly who you want a young QB throwing to.

QB: the team can either keep Taylor or sign a veteran. Either way, that QB is just keeping the seat warm for the rookie. Peterman looks like he could develop into a solid #2.

Defense: need DL. Run clogging DTs can be found in free agency. I’d use my picks on athletic pass rushers. LBs and DBs later in the draft and in free agency.

Overall, I’d package to get to #1 and Darnold or #4 and Allen. Either way leaves the Bills with a 2nd and 3rd round pick, so it’s a normal draft instead of a volume draft. I’m ok with that if the team comes away with Darnold or Allen.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Trading up with Cleveland might not be that crazy. They might not be in love with Rosen or Darnold. They passed on Wentz and regret it. And Josh Allen has a little Wentz to his game. The Browns also have the 4th pick.

Would Cleveland trade out of 1st overall for a slew of picks, knowing it could come at at 4 and taken Allen? A lot less pressure on the QB and the franchise. Personally, if I were the Browns GM, that's exactly what I'd do.

21 and 22 get you to 6th overall. If Beane wants a QB, that's not good enough, since the Jets aren't trading out if 6, and the QB needy Broncos pick 5th. Add in one of the second round picks and Beane can get to 4th overall - and deal with the Browns.

Add in next year's first and Beane could get the top pick. Cleveland gets their QB at 4. They get two more picks in the first and an additional second, then two more firsts in the 2019 draft.

If Beane really likes Darnold, that's the trade I'd pursue. If not, I'd shoot for 4th overall and Allen.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I am not comfortable trading 21,22,2018 2nd and 2019 1st for #1. I don't feel there is a can't miss future all pro QB prospect there and even if there was you really think Cleveland will trade out of getting it?

 

[SoFFacet]

In my opinion, Rosen and Darnold are worth trading up for. But they are likely going 1+2. If for some reason one slips, 21+22+53 is enough to get to 3 or 4. Every other QB in the class has enough potential to take a chance on at 21, but too many question marks to be worth trading up for, IMO. I really dislike the oversimplification of "taking your guy, not a guy." It doesn't make any sense to pretend to have conviction. But you can't wait forever for a sure thing, so sometimes you just have to take a chance on a guy you're not totally sure about. I.e. Allen, Jackson, or Mayfield at 21.

 

[Woodman19]

Lots of incorrect assumptions people make. (Actually had this From someone at work)

"Just trade up" has two problems, it assumes someone wants to trade down and going from top 5 to the 20's is asking a lot. Secondly, trading up only makes sense of the talent is worth it. I know everyone feels their guy is a top talent and every team needs a QB, but there are just as likely to be a Allen/Mayfield/Rudolph dropping to us. Taking Mayfield at 8 for example at great cost doesn't in any way change his career path than if we got him at 21.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

In my opinion, Rosen and Darnold are worth trading up for. But they are likely going 1+2. If for some reason one slips, 21+22+53 is enough to get to 3 or 4. Every other QB in the class has enough potential to take a chance on at 21, but too many question marks to be worth trading up for, IMO. I really dislike the oversimplification of "taking your guy, not a guy." It doesn't make any sense to pretend to have conviction. But you can't wait forever for a sure thing, so sometimes you just have to take a chance on a guy you're not totally sure about. I.e. Allen, Jackson, or Mayfield at 21.

Taking a chance on a guy is how we got Losman and Manuel. I'd rather keep Tyrod/trade for a starter/sign Case Keenum and wait for 2019 then move up for a QB with some question marks. What scares me is that this is the first time since 04 we had 2 1sts right ? And ever since then we have had a few drafts without a first round pick. That's why I don't want to trade 4 high picks that are supposed to garner 4 high end starters for a roll of the dice at QB.

 

[Der Jaeger]

There's no such thing as a can't miss prospect at QB. Last one was Andrew Luck.

You have a 50% hit rate in the first round. Take a look at Super Bowl winning QBs:

Aikman (1)
Aikman (1)
Young (1)
Aikman (1)
Favre (2)
Elway (1)
Elway (1)
Warner (UDRFA)
Dilfer (1)
Brady (6)
Johnson (9)
Brady (6)
Brady (6)
Roethlisberger (1)
P.Manning (1)
E.Manning (1)
Roethlisberger (1)
Brees (2)
Rodgers (1)
E. Manning (1)
Flacco (1)
Wilson (3)
Brady (6)
P.Manning (1)
Brady (6)

Take Brady of that list, and you've got a list for mostly 1st rounders.

You roll the dice on the most important position on the field. It's the only position you do this for in football. The Bills have been reluctant to take chances on QBs in the first round for a while, aside from Losman and Manuel. You bring in a veteran to steady the team, or keep Taylor, and you bring in a young gun. You give him the Rodgers treatment. I'm ok with any of the top three QBs.

If I'm Beane, I'm talking to Cleveland today.

 

[Der Jaeger]

If JP Losman and EJ Manuel are keeping you from drafting a QB in the first round, you should go take a look at what a legit college QB prospect looks like.

Losman was a disaster waiting to happen with his attitude.
Manuel was elevated a round too early because of the desire to have a QB in place when moving from Nix to Whaley.

Darnold, Rosen, and Allen are worlds better than either of those two.

 

[SoFFacet]

Taking a chance on a guy is how we got Losman and Manuel. I'd rather keep Tyrod/trade for a starter/sign Case Keenum and wait for 2019 then move up for a QB with some question marks. What scares me is that this is the first time since 04 we had 2 1sts right ? And ever since then we have had a few drafts without a first round pick. That's why I don't want to trade 4 high picks that are supposed to garner 4 high end starters for a roll of the dice at QB.

It's also how Seattle got Wilson, Dallas got Prescott, NE got Brady, Washington got Cousins, Houston got Watson, etc. Sometimes it works out, sometimes not. As long as you don't pretend to have conviction like we did with Manuel, missing on a 1st-round pick isn't the end of the world. You can't let it discourage you from trying again, otherwise you'll end up like... the Bills. Unless you're picking in the top-2 this is the situation everyone has to deal with.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

It's Locker Clean Out Day at One Bills Drive

ERIC WOOD: "THERE'S A LOT TO BUILD ON" (3:43)
C Eric Wood talks about breaking the playoff drought, taking momentum in to next season and more.

TRE'DAVIOUS WHITE: "SET A GREAT STANDARD"(4:28)
Cornerback Tre'Davious White addressed the media inside the locker room Monday topics include; reflecting on his rookie year, playing in a playoff game, and his thoughts on next year.

 

[OkimLom]

Trade Tyrod for Eli Manning, Draft your future QB, Re-structure Manning's contract. Address the O-Line in Free Agency if you can. Let the kid learn under Eli. Hire a new Offensive Coordinator that can create gameplans to get your best weapons open.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

If you compare the past decade of Super Bowls, rather than looking back to uncapped and stylistically obsolete eras, you'll see a bunch of teams that added a QB to existing foundations or rebuilt with their own pick.

 

[Der Jaeger]

If you compare the past decade of Super Bowls, rather than looking back to uncapped and stylistically obsolete eras, you'll see a bunch of teams that added a QB to existing foundations or rebuilt with their own pick.

Works well if you’ve got a top five pick and the foundation built. But that’s not really how it played out.

Giants paid though their teeth for Manning.
Rodgers fell.
Steelers had a down year.
Ryan went to a bad team.
Eagles traded up for Wentz.
Colts tanked.
Panthers were terrible.


What you wrote applies to Wilson and Flacco.

Stylistically, the league hasn’t changed since 2007 in the passing game. Only big change was dual threat QBs. And we see how that went.

 

[Husko]

This season was so odd. Between the trades, some nice wins, and bad losses, this team isn’t good enough. Breaking the drought was amazing. But I still sit here and think if Kyle Williams retires, the Bills are in big trouble. We need a new QB, 2 WRs, a RT, DE and DT, minimum.

FWIW having picks 21 and 22 are equivalent to about the 7th overall pick, if the Bills wanted to move up.

Don't forget MLB, probably the biggest need on defensive. A speedy, coverage/attacking MLB is supposed to be the central piece to a McDermott defense. Preston Brown, while a fine player, is a horrible fit for this scheme, not to mention a UFA.

But yeah, breaking the drought was nice, but this team is nowhere near contention. Holes all over the team.

 

[Husko]

Don't waste the valuable picks on moving up. We made the playoffs this year. Sign a QB that can pass and use the picks to fill in the rest of the needs.

You're going to make my eyes bleed. This mentality is what got us to a 17 year playoff drought. Find a franchise QB. It's. All. That. Matters.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

WGR Audio from Locker Clean Out Day:

1-8: Lorenzo Alexander (2:31)

1-8: Kelvin Benjamin (3:42)

1-8: Kyle Williams (03:02)

 

[Jim Bob]

Trading up with Cleveland might not be that crazy. They might not be in love with Rosen or Darnold. They passed on Wentz and regret it. And Josh Allen has a little Wentz to his game. The Browns also have the 4th pick.

Would Cleveland trade out of 1st overall for a slew of picks, knowing it could come at at 4 and taken Allen? A lot less pressure on the QB and the franchise. Personally, if I were the Browns GM, that's exactly what I'd do.

21 and 22 get you to 6th overall. If Beane wants a QB, that's not good enough, since the Jets aren't trading out if 6, and the QB needy Broncos pick 5th. Add in one of the second round picks and Beane can get to 4th overall - and deal with the Browns.

Add in next year's first and Beane could get the top pick. Cleveland gets their QB at 4. They get two more picks in the first and an additional second, then two more firsts in the 2019 draft.

If Beane really likes Darnold, that's the trade I'd pursue. If not, I'd shoot for 4th overall and Allen.

The Jets need a QB and they aren't trading 6OV for 21 & 22.

21, 22, & 2019 1st for 4OV is a possibility if the Browns are still playing moneyball with their picks.

 

[Husko]

Dennison absolutely sucks but I think at least some of his worst tendencies were the byproduct of the team being absolutely devoid of a power run game.

Like, I'd rather see him gone, but I can see the offense rebounding to average with lower variance on the ground and actual possession receivers.

Well that's partly his fault... His offense doesn't employ a power run (pulling guard) scheme. He's all about the zone blocking style. It wasn't until the horrible slow start for the running game that he finally started mixing in some power runs with Incognito pulling.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

NO DECISION, NO TIMETABLE FOR KYLE WILLIAMS

Kyle Williams believes he can still play, but when it comes to a decision about his playing future he hasn't crossed that bridge yet.

 

[hizzoner]

If a franchise qb is available then sure go all in. But why would that pick be available with what we have to trade? I have no issue with risking a first rounder on a qb at 21 but he better be someone who plays the style the bills want and has proven he can do it well in college. Then DE or MLB, WR(Ridley at 22 if still around?), then OL and RB.

 

[Icicle]

At least this staff seemed to 'hit' on more drafts picks last year than the org did for many years before that.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[brian_griffin]

Works well if you’ve got a top five pick and the foundation built. But that’s not really how it played out.

Giants paid though their teeth for Manning.
Rodgers fell.
Steelers had a down year.
Ryan went to a bad team.
Eagles traded up for Wentz.
Colts tanked.
Panthers were terrible.


What you wrote applies to Wilson and Flacco.

Stylistically, the league hasn’t changed since 2007 in the passing game. Only big change was dual threat QBs. And we see how that went.

Not stirring the pot for the sake of stirring, but legitimately asking...

If you consider the majority of the best pure pocket passers who are champions are long in the tooth:
(P. Manning 39 his final season), Brady 40, Brees 38, Rivers & E. Manning 36, Big Ben 35, Rodgers 34, [let's call this group A]
...And the apparent dearth of up-and-coming pure pocket passers to replace them:
Goff 23, Wentz 25, ...whom else do you want to place on that list [let's call this Group C]?

Would you then consider that any of the handful above-average pocket passer QBs in the in-between "age gap": Alex Smith 33, Matt Ryan 32, Stafford & maybe Cousins both 29, Luck 28 [let's call this Group B] have anywhere near the chance of success that the Group A QBs have had? (I'd argue Stafford has the best shot after Luck, assuming Luck can come back from injury.) Smith, Ryan, Stafford, Luck all Rd1, #1-3.

Let's further assume the dual-threat QBs will have shorter careers (Wilson, Newton, Taylor, Prescott, etc.), so it might actually make sense to avoid drafting them from a depreciation standpoint / preservation of value.

Then to me, it boils down to 3 scenarios:
1. Trade up to draft the can't-miss franchise QB, and have him turn out to actually be that QB, and be on a team good enough to do it. What team would trade with BUF to give the Bills that chance? I just don't see it.

2. Trade up to draft the can't-miss franchise QB, and have him "languish" on a team which can't get over the hump.

3. Draft QB when the player falls to you and develop and hope you get the next Big Ben, Rogers, Brady, (Wilson).

You're going to make my eyes bleed. This mentality is what got us to a 17 year playoff drought. Find a franchise QB. It's. All. That. Matters.

If only it were that easy, each and every year, why don't all teams do it?

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]