Speculation: Bucky agrees to 6 years...who's next?

[Mortimer Snerd]

doesn't matter who if we can't afford the other. getting jmo long term is a priority

We really don't have any plugs. Our cheap guys are too cheap to solve any cap problem by moving them. Teir replacement cost eats up any saving. Lowry is the lowest one you could move and he is a very important part of the team. Then we get to some, like Kulikov who would be extremely hard to move and who can't simply be dropped. There is no easy solution.

Myers and Perreault are moveable but the time to do that has already passed. Not to mention their value to the team. The amount of debate we have had over moving either or both of them shows that they are not in the easy solution category either.

 

[Whileee]

That honestly seems like a fair compromise. We get a few extra years of service from him. He doesn't get stuck with a lower salary the next couple of years. And he still gets to make an even bigger contract next time.

I'd even be okay with a 3 year deal to keep the AAV down. At least that way he could traded, if we wanted and get something decent back. And we would have lots of time to find his replacement.

I'd be fine with 4 years, and less with 3 years. A 4 year deal would be the same result as Rielly, Jones and others getting 6 years out of their ELC. 4x$6m would be the same overall salary as Rielly at 6x$5m two years ago. I expect Trouba to want a bit more because he's better and with cap inflation.

 

[KingBogo]

The thing is that every contract requires 2 parties to agree. Chevy doesn't get to dictate terms. They have to be negotiated. Who here would not have preferred 4 years at 3.5 mil? Helle would not sign that. He would go to arbitration and if Jets continue to try to short change him, he would leave at the first opportunity. An underpaid employee is an unhappy employee.

Yup. It is easy for us all just to type in our ideal contract and say "get it done Chevy". In the real world him and Simmons are grinding out every deal with an agent that is trying to get what he can squeeze out for his client. Now that we are in the arb countdown I expect to see the signings in order of the next scheduled hearing, and for each one to be for a touch more than hoped for.

 

[puck stoppa]

Any news on Kulikov? Did he get surgery? If so is he out for a while and therefore won't count vs cap? Would that change things and help Chevy money wise?
Or will he be ready for camp?

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Any news on Kulikov? Did he get surgery? If so is he out for a while and therefore won't count vs cap? Would that change things and help Chevy money wise?
Or will he be ready for camp?

From page 1.

Putting Kulikov on LTIR for cap relief reasons is a bad bad bad BAD idea for the Jets. LTIR doesn't give you more cap space. It can let you exceed the cap by the amount you are over (up to the value of the contract put on LTIR). The key difference here is you can't "bank" cap space. The end result of this would be that any performance bonuses gained by the players on ELC's would carry over. So if they approached the cap to the point where they would need to use Kulikov on LTIR it means that all of that 3.7 million in ELC bonuses (assuming they hit them, but considering the two biggest are Laine and Connor who hit them last year IIRC) would carry over into next season. So the Jets would have 3.7 less in cap room next year. This would only matter if the Jets exceed the cap without the bonuses, so it would change all the calculations. Putting Kulikov on LTIR when under the cap wouldn't make any difference though.

 

[puck stoppa]

From page 1.

Thx. Answered my one question very well. Any reliable source about his status for camp?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

no it doesn't need to go 1 step at a time. he is a core piece that needs to be signed long term. there is no well we are not sure what he is worth as there was with trouba. as a matter of fact overpaying for trouba now wont help with Morrissey signing a good contract. he is our present top pairing ld. should 4th line players get priority with a long term contract over top pairing dmen. trouba and Morrissey need long term contracts. everyone else can get what ever is left over and if we need to make a trade then that's what they have to do. you don't sign all the 4th line players and pb guys and say well there isn't enough to pay Morrissey. you sign Morrissey and then what is left you use sign lowry to a long term contract and everyone else to 1 or 2 year deals. Morrissey 2 years from now on the pp getting points can command around 7.5 million a year as apposed to mid 5's and around 6 on a long term deal now. not worth not signing him long term now.

It isn't about what he is worth and it wasn't with Trouba either. It is building a team that gets priority. that means managing the cap.

Sign Morrissey and Trouba long term, Lowry long term and everybody else to cheap 1 & 2 year contracts and we are over the cap. This year it is injury costs and bonuses that put us over. That bonus overage carries over to next year and reduces the cap space we have available when we really need it. Signing Morrissey long term now doesn't just cost us a Tanev or even a Copp. They don't make any appreciable difference. It costs us Wheeler, or Connor, or Ehlers, or Buff.

Morrissey isn't likely to be on the PP 2 years from now. He isn't likely to suddenly start scoring in bunches and cost big money. He would cost ~5.5 to sign long term now and will cost ~6.5 to sign long term in a couple of years. Between now and then we have other contracts expiring and the cap going up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm guessing Lowry comes in over a 3.2 AAV. My call is $14 M over 4 years for an AAV of $3.5 M.

Could well be. When I looked at ranges, I had him between 2.5-3.5 with higher more likely than lower. 3.2 is my best guess number. Him at 3.5 just adds a little more to the cap pressure.

If everybody keeps coming in 5-10% above my best guess numbers, I think we will have to start thinking about trading an expensive young player for a big - inexpensive - return. The alternative will be to let some expensive older players go to FA with no return. Take away Wheeler, Myers, Kulikov, Perreault and Buff for no return and we are a playoff bubble team again.

 

[surixon]

It isn't about what he is worth and it wasn't with Trouba either. It is building a team that gets priority. that means managing the cap.

Sign Morrissey and Trouba long term, Lowry long term and everybody else to cheap 1 & 2 year contracts and we are over the cap. This year it is injury costs and bonuses that put us over. That bonus overage carries over to next year and reduces the cap space we have available when we really need it. Signing Morrissey long term now doesn't just cost us a Tanev or even a Copp. They don't make any appreciable difference. It costs us Wheeler, or Connor, or Ehlers, or Buff.

Morrissey isn't likely to be on the PP 2 years from now. He isn't likely to suddenly start scoring in bunches and cost big money. He would cost ~5.5 to sign long term now and will cost ~6.5 to sign long term in a couple of years. Between now and then we have other contracts expiring and the cap going up.

I would argue Morrissey will be on the PP this coming season. Maurice is quoted as saying it is getting hard to keep him off of it. They are going to have to find a second unit QB with Myers being on his way out. I think Morrissey wins the spot this season.

Anyhow only one contract in Helle came over my projections and he was only 2.5% over.

 

[ffh]

It isn't about what he is worth and it wasn't with Trouba either. It is building a team that gets priority. that means managing the cap.

Sign Morrissey and Trouba long term, Lowry long term and everybody else to cheap 1 & 2 year contracts and we are over the cap. This year it is injury costs and bonuses that put us over. That bonus overage carries over to next year and reduces the cap space we have available when we really need it. Signing Morrissey long term now doesn't just cost us a Tanev or even a Copp. They don't make any appreciable difference. It costs us Wheeler, or Connor, or Ehlers, or Buff.

Morrissey isn't likely to be on the PP 2 years from now. He isn't likely to suddenly start scoring in bunches and cost big money. He would cost ~5.5 to sign long term now and will cost ~6.5 to sign long term in a couple of years. Between now and then we have other contracts expiring and the cap going up.

I have no idea how waiting 2 years changes anything in terms of finding money to pay everybody. Paying morrissey 1 to 2 million more a year in 2 years hardly makes sense. I think chevy can and will sign all 3 long term if trouba wants to sign here. But if it's a choice between Lowry and Morrissey for a long term and the other getting a 1 or 2 year contract i can't see Chevy not going with who might be our best dmen getting the long term contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would argue Morrissey will be on the PP this coming season. Maurice is quoted as saying it is getting hard to keep him off of it. They are going to have to find a second unit QB with Myers being on his way out. I think Morrissey wins the spot this season.

Anyhow only one contract in Helle came over my projections and he was only 2.5% over.

You figured Morrow for a mil? He and Helle are the only 2 signed so far, IIRC. I had Helle at 5.75, that's 6.7%. I don't remember for sure what I had Morrow at since I've updated. I think I had his mid number at 900k, 10%. KB was estimating Lowry at 3.5, compared to my 3.2. That's 8.5%.

I have long thought Morrissey should get a big share of the PP time but I think Trouba gets that time after Buff. If I'm wrong about that his scoring will rise and his next contract after the bridge would be proportionately larger. I will live with paying him more because he is contributing more, at a time when we can better accommodate the increase. If we don't have the cap to lock him up now, we don't have it and that's all there is to it. The options are a lot worse than having to pay him an additional 1mil later.

If Chevy can find a way to do it that doesn't hurt too much in '20 and beyond, great. Do it. But my numbers show us going over, even this year. Unless signing him long term means something under 4.5. Doesn't mean it couldn't be done but it does mean another move of some kind would have to be made. I just don't see Chevy doing any more. We'll see.

 

[DarthMonty]

Lowry, probably for ~$2.8M over 4 or 5 year term. I think the Jets see Lowry as a VIP (very important piece) moving forward. Followed by JoMo; I think this week will be a flurry of signings, leaving Trouba until the end.

I believe some of the RFA players have bought into the long term future of this team being a perennial playoff qualifier/cup finalist, and will sign deals that, while being "team friendly", are also reasonably close to the average they could expect on the open market. There are teams that have the cap space to pay out more, but I think some players place more value on a Cup over an extra half million playing in the wilderness that is Phoenix or Florida.

My 2 cents.

 

[Whileee]

Lowry, probably for ~$2.8M over 4 or 5 year term. I think the Jets see Lowry as a VIP (very important piece) moving forward. Followed by JoMo; I think this week will be a flurry of signings, leaving Trouba until the end.

I believe some of the RFA players have bought into the long term future of this team being a perennial playoff qualifier/cup finalist, and will sign deals that, while being "team friendly", are also reasonably close to the average they could expect on the open market. There are teams that have the cap space to pay out more, but I think some players place more value on a Cup over an extra half million playing in the wilderness that is Phoenix or Florida.

My 2 cents.

I think that's low for Lowry. Remember, Devin Shore just nabbed $2.3m on a two year deal. I think Lowry is a tier or two higher than Shore.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have no idea how waiting 2 years changes anything in terms of finding money to pay everybody. Paying morrissey 1 to 2 million more a year in 2 years hardly makes sense. I think chevy can and will sign all 3 long term if trouba wants to sign here. But if it's a choice between Lowry and Morrissey for a long term and the other getting a 1 or 2 year contract i can't see Chevy not going with who might be our best dmen getting the long term contract.

If it is just about choosing whether to sign Morrissey long term and Lowry and some other for shorter term then I would agree.

The only way I see that happening is if most players are signed for less than my estimated numbers. So far they are coming in higher. And I am not going long term on anybody but Trouba and Helle this year.

In 1 year Myers' contract expires. In 2 years Kulikov's contract expires. Two Dmen with a cap hit of 9.833 mil. That is the difference for waiting 2 years to give Morrissey his LT deal. It then costs 6.5 instead of 5.5 but we get a combined 10 years instead of 8. If he gets a lot of PP time and his scoring goes up it costs us 7.5 instead of 6.5. That gets tough but we can manage it, if necessary. Maybe the cap goes up enough that we can do it. At worst it means losing a player like Copp to accommodate the extra mil.

 

[ffh]

If it is just about choosing whether to sign Morrissey long term and Lowry and some other for shorter term then I would agree.

The only way I see that happening is if most players are signed for less than my estimated numbers. So far they are coming in higher. And I am not going long term on anybody but Trouba and Helle this year.

In 1 year Myers' contract expires. In 2 years Kulikov's contract expires. Two Dmen with a cap hit of 9.833 mil. That is the difference for waiting 2 years to give Morrissey his LT deal. It then costs 6.5 instead of 5.5 but we get a combined 10 years instead of 8. If he gets a lot of PP time and his scoring goes up it costs us 7.5 instead of 6.5. That gets tough but we can manage it, if necessary. Maybe the cap goes up enough that we can do it. At worst it means losing a player like Copp to accommodate the extra mil.

You say the numbers are coming in higher then your estimates. There has only been 1 set of numbers. Also Chevy said they had Helle at 5.5 for 1 year so my guess is 6.1 for six are right along with what he had set aside for Helle. I doubt morrissey isn't offered a long term contract. we will see I guess. I don't see how you prioritize hellebuyck and trouba over morrissey . To me they are equal.

 

[KingBogo]

You say the numbers are coming in higher then your estimates. There has only been 1 set of numbers. Also Chevy said they had Helle at 5.5 for 1 year so my guess is 6.1 for six are right along with what he had set aside for Helle. I doubt morrissey isn't offered a long term contract. we will see I guess. I don't see how you prioritize hellebuyck and trouba over morrissey . To me they are equal.

You prioritize them over Morrissey because they are arbitration eligible and your window is much tighter to get a deal done. Trouba is now done to 6 days. Morrissey doesn't have arbitration rights and his deal doesn't have to be signed until players need to show up to camp. So Chevy has 2 months to get it done. I think it is likely Chevy wants to sign him long term but that will require another roster move. It only makes sense to wait and see how much juggling needs to be done. If for example the plan is to move out Myers, Chevy needs to know how much contract he can take back.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You say the numbers are coming in higher then your estimates. There has only been 1 set of numbers. Also Chevy said they had Helle at 5.5 for 1 year so my guess is 6.1 for six are right along with what he had set aside for Helle. I doubt morrissey isn't offered a long term contract. we will see I guess. I don't see how you prioritize hellebuyck and trouba over morrissey . To me they are equal.

That's easy. Both Hellebuyck and Trouba have completed their 2nd contracts. They have had their bridge/show me contracts. They are closer to UFA, with fewer RFA years to work with. Give them 2 year contracts and they are UFA's at the end. Morrissey has just completed his ELC and is 4 years from UFA.

 

[ffh]

That's easy. Both Hellebuyck and Trouba have completed their 2nd contracts. They have had their bridge/show me contracts. They are closer to UFA, with fewer RFA years to work with. Give them 2 year contracts and they are UFA's at the end. Morrissey has just completed his ELC and is 4 years from UFA.

This exactly is my point. Morrissey doesn't have to sign a bridge show me contract because he has already proven himself with the elc contract like scheifele and ehlers did. What would be the point to bridging him. Don't think chevy was comfortable with going long with trouba at the money he wanted or hellebuyck coming of their elc's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This exactly is my point. Morrissey doesn't have to sign a bridge show me contract because he has already proven himself with the elc contract like scheifele and ehlers did. What would be the point to bridging him. Don't think chevy was comfortable with going long with trouba at the money he wanted or hellebuyck coming of their elc's.

But - it isn't about proving himself. It was with Bucky. It wasn't with Trouba. A bridge contract is one thing. A 'show me' contract is another. Trouba's was a 'show me' in the other direction, about usage. Trouba wouldn't even consider a long term contract at that time. Was not willing to negotiate.

The point of bridging him now is to delay the big salary until some other contracts expire - so we can fit his new contract under the cap. Cap hadn't become an issue yet when Scheifele and Ehlers signed. It is now.

 

[surixon]

You figured Morrow for a mil? He and Helle are the only 2 signed so far, IIRC. I had Helle at 5.75, that's 6.7%. I don't remember for sure what I had Morrow at since I've updated. I think I had his mid number at 900k, 10%. KB was estimating Lowry at 3.5, compared to my 3.2. That's 8.5%.

I have long thought Morrissey should get a big share of the PP time but I think Trouba gets that time after Buff. If I'm wrong about that his scoring will rise and his next contract after the bridge would be proportionately larger. I will live with paying him more because he is contributing more, at a time when we can better accommodate the increase. If we don't have the cap to lock him up now, we don't have it and that's all there is to it. The options are a lot worse than having to pay him an additional 1mil later.

If Chevy can find a way to do it that doesn't hurt too much in '20 and beyond, great. Do it. But my numbers show us going over, even this year. Unless signing him long term means something under 4.5. Doesn't mean it couldn't be done but it does mean another move of some kind would have to be made. I just don't see Chevy doing any more. We'll see.

Yup I had Morrow pegged at $1 million, and Helle at $6 million.

I don't see it with Trouba on the PP especially with the pieces we have. The org has also given him multiple opportunities to run with the PP and he just can't seem to take advantage. Two seasons ago when Myers was out all year he was given the keys to the second unit. He also was given the keys the start of last season but lost out to Myers when the unit wasn't performing.

I also think there where some politics at work last season to keep thing positive with his camp. Once he signs I think that goes out the window.

 

[bumblebeeman]

This exactly is my point. Morrissey doesn't have to sign a bridge show me contract because he has already proven himself with the elc contract like scheifele and ehlers did. What would be the point to bridging him. Don't think chevy was comfortable with going long with trouba at the money he wanted or hellebuyck coming of their elc's.

If there's not enough cap space

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup I had Morrow pegged at $1 million, and Helle at $6 million.

I don't see it with Trouba on the PP especially with the pieces we have. The org has also given him multiple opportunities to run with the PP and he just can't seem to take advantage. Two seasons ago when Myers was out all year he was given the keys to the second unit. He also was given the keys the start of last season but lost out to Myers when the unit wasn't performing.

I also think there where some politics at work last season to keep thing positive with his camp. Once he signs I think that goes out the window.

Could be but my expectation is that Trouba is #3 on the D rota for PP time. And gawd knows Maurice can be stubborn. I don't expect him to be particularly successful. Just enough to keep the job - and move up if Myers isn't there. We'll see.

 

[ffh]

Could be but my expectation is that Trouba is #3 on the D rota for PP time. And gawd knows Maurice can be stubborn. I don't expect him to be particularly successful. Just enough to keep the job - and move up if Myers isn't there. We'll see.

ehlers is completely useless on the pp from the point look for Morrissey and trouba if he signs to play on the 2nd pp there. Morrissey to play ld on the 2nd pp this year though. they will have to find another spot for ehlers this year on the pp.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

ehlers is completely useless on the pp from the point look for Morrissey and trouba if he signs to play on the 2nd pp there. Morrissey to play ld on the 2nd pp this year though. they will have to find another spot for ehlers this year on the pp.

I doubt Maurice abandons the 4F/1D PP system. If we were playing a conventional 3F/2D system the story of PP time for the D would be very different.

 

[Georgetown Al]

edited..