Boston Bruins Bruins Prospects Discussion IV - Mod warning 565

[mikelvl]

Give the guys who are in their first full professional season at least one full season before being concerned or overly critical. IIRC, Heinen and DeBrusk went through lengthy scoring slumps last year in their first full seasons. If no progress is shown after two years, then maybe there is an issue with the players development. But now is not that time.

 

[Tampbear]

I didn't criticize the overall depth of their prospect pool. My post was specifically about the new crop of AHL guys who have been pretty quiet so far. This is exactly why discussing this stuff is so difficult. Some people are so quick to defend the Bruins FO that if you say anything critical about some of their draft picks then you have people putting words in your mouth & saying you called their prospect pool shallow.

Yes, the Bruins have drafted really well and yes I'm thrilled about the guys contributing in the NHL already. The B's are considered to have one of the deepest prospect pools in the league. Depth by its very definition implies you know...depth...like as in beyond their top 5-10 prospects. A lot of us were hoping and counting on this 2nd wave of prospects to come in to the AHL and tear it up like the first wave guys (the guys you listed) and so far it hasn't happened. It's a little concerning is all I'm saying.

Players do not all develop at the same rate. Senyshun was a known project, that unlike the other prospects mentioned doesn't have a well rounded game but was chosen because of his scoring potential, I would have been blown away if he had stepped right in and started putting up numbers. Reports however indicate that his play is improving through the first 10 games which is what i expect. Again, Gabrielle was a 4th round pick that scored a lot over the last couple years, there is a reason he was a 4th round pick and again should be expected to take longer to get there. Grzelcyk of the guys you mentioned is the only one I would worry about not being able to make it right now, but even then I'm not worried at all because if he can't make it there is a lot of other players that could take up that position. Again, any of the guys mentioned could be busts, but trying to judge that 10 games into their professional career is just going to leave you worrying a lot.

 

[ODAAT]

perfect world/icing on the cake scenario for me, a kid plays a season in the AHL, develops nicely, earns a spot in camp the following year with the big club.

Reality part of my small brain, the majority of these kids need time, 2-3 years is not, IMO, a negative. Just like the draft itself, how quickly or how slowly a kid develops and shows he`s ready for the NHL is an inexact science

 

[DKH]

perfect world/icing on the cake scenario for me, a kid plays a season in the AHL, develops nicely, earns a spot in camp the following year with the big club.

Reality part of my small brain, the majority of these kids need time, 2-3 years is not, IMO, a negative. Just like the draft itself, how quickly or how slowly a kid develops and shows he`s ready for the NHL is an inexact science

Seems they would like JFK to adjust to pace while his game and body mature the way DeBrusk did

They all can't be like Boeser Connor or Barzal

 

[ODAAT]

Seems they would like JFK to adjust to pace while his game and body mature the way DeBrusk did

They all can't be like Boeser Connor or Barzal

Looks like it, any idea how JFK has looked in Providence? I get Twitter notifications during PB games and it feels like he`s putting up some numbers but that doesn`t always tell the whole story

 

[DKH]

Looks like it, any idea how JFK has looked in Providence? I get Twitter notifications during PB games and it feels like he`s putting up some numbers but that doesn`t always tell the whole story

Been to 2 games and you can see he's got excellent hockey smarts - consistently makes good decisions but he has Agostino and Cehlarik on his winds

Agostino led the AHL in scoring last year and Cehlarik was the best player on the ice both games

Incidentally one was against the Marlies who dress many prospects and former NHL players

 

[ODAAT]

Been to 2 games and you can see he's got excellent hockey smarts - consistently makes good decisions but he has Agostino and Cehlarik on his winds

Agostino led the AHL in scoring last year and Cehlarik was the best player on the ice both games

Incidentally one was against the Marlies who dress many prospects and former NHL players

Great to read, thanks. Is he more a playmaker or C-man who finishes? Sorry for the questions but I don`t get the opportunity to watch the PB`s

 

[PlayMakers]

perfect world/icing on the cake scenario for me, a kid plays a season in the AHL, develops nicely, earns a spot in camp the following year with the big club.

My perfect world development path is a little slower.

To me, the first year is growing pains/adjustment. Get used to playing against men who are bigger/stronger. Get used to playing faster and competing harder for pucks. Get used to the pro style game... 40-60 points (or a 40-60 point pace) in year 1 is a very good, very promising season for a forward. If you can have a good playoffs then that usually bodes well for development curve and will put you in the running for a spot on September. If not, no biggie.

In year 2 I want to see players take what they learned in Year 1 and start asserting themselves. They find a level of consistency and should start looking like impact players every time they step on the ice. In year 2, I expect an point per game pace, or if you're more of a shooter/goal scorer, a 30 goal pace. For defensemen I'm looking for 50 point pace and TOI in all situations. Goalies should be in the .920 range. Players playing at that level usually get a few call-ups, but during those call-ups it's best to keep expectations low. They're once again in that adjustment phase and that usually extends into their first full season in the NHL in Year 3. I think a lot of fans lose faith in prospects during that tweener phase where they've dominated the A, but haven't found comfort/consistency yet in the National.

Look at Marchand. He followed that path exactly. 59points year 1. PPG pace year 2. Called up to the NHL for 20 games and no points. Over the summer, fans wrote him off. The next year he's a critical piece in a Stanley Cup victory.

Honestly, I think it can hurt players who skip that year 2 step. Sometimes you see guys get elevated because they're physically strong and have high compete levels but if they never get to feel "dominant" they sometimes lose confidence in their offensive abilities and end up pigeon-holed as 4th liners. I wanted Acciari to get a full second year (for this reason) but it never happened.

 

[DKH]

Great to read, thanks. Is he more a playmaker or C-man who finishes? Sorry for the questions but I don`t get the opportunity to watch the PB`s

Playmaker - Krejci offensive skill set

 

[ODAAT]

Playmaker - Krejci offensive skill set

Nice, real worried about DK, not at all liking this back issue

 

[Mount Kramer Cameras]

perfect world/icing on the cake scenario for me, a kid plays a season in the AHL, develops nicely, earns a spot in camp the following year with the big club.

Reality part of my small brain, the majority of these kids need time, 2-3 years is not, IMO, a negative. Just like the draft itself, how quickly or how slowly a kid develops and shows he`s ready for the NHL is an inexact science

Yeah, it's different for each player. With that said, I still think that there are generally three kinds of prospect. I'll use current B's as a reference point:

1) The ones who learn on the job in the NHL (Bergeron, Carlo, McAvoy, Pastrnak, Bjork). This is the top talent that's most likely to be a top 6/top 4 player.

2) The ones who look good/great in the AHL and make an impact the year or two after (Heinen, Krug, Marchand, Krejci). Still a potential top 6/Top 4 player - it's just a different path.

3) The ones who don't make a huge splash in the AHL but eventually figure out how to get to the NHL (Nash, Beleksey, McQuaid, Schaller).

History says that if a player needs two/three years to get up to speed in the minors then he's probably going to top out as a 4th liner or a 3rd pairing defenseman. We may have to adjust our expectations at some point. But if we get serviceable lower-end players in the future then that's gonna be a part of the jigsaw too.

In any case, I'm waiting for another 20/30 games before taking a hard look at these guys.

 

[PlayMakers]

Great to read, thanks. Is he more a playmaker or C-man who finishes? Sorry for the questions but I don`t get the opportunity to watch the PB`s

He can do both but I consider him a cerebral playmaker with hands, like a Krejci. Very smart and subtle defensively. Did everything for BU. 1st line C. 1st PP. 1st PK. If they had a 5on3 he was the lone PK forward. If they needed a goal late, he was the extra attacker. This was on a team with Clayton Keller, Patrick Harper, Keifer Bellows, Jordan Greenway, McAvoy, Dante Fabbro... so there was no shortage of quality options.

I know a lot of highly respected folks think he has top6 upside but I'm not entirely sold on his offensive game being strong enough to drive a top6 line. I see him more as the perfect 3c. Good enough offensively that he can play with a mix of skill and grit and help make that line productive, while also being good enough defensively to be a real positive factor 5on5. That could be selling him short though... he certainly had some highlight reel goals at BU.

 

[ODAAT]

He can do both but I consider him a cerebral playmaker with hands, like a Krejci. Very smart and subtle defensively. Did everything for BU. 1st line C. 1st PP. 1st PK. If they had a 5on3 he was the lone PK forward. If they needed a goal late, he was the extra attacker. This was on a team with Clayton Keller, Patrick Harper, Keifer Bellows, Jordan Greenway, McAvoy, Dante Fabbro... so there was no shortage of quality options.

I know a lot of highly respected folks think he has top6 upside but I'm not entirely sold on his offensive game being strong enough to drive a top6 line. I see him more as the perfect 3c. Good enough offensively that he can play with a mix of skill and grit and help make that line productive, while also being good enough defensively to be a real positive factor 5on5. That could be selling him short though... he certainly had some highlight reel goals at BU.

Greatly appreciate the feedback

 

[DKH]

He can do both but I consider him a cerebral playmaker with hands, like a Krejci. Very smart and subtle defensively. Did everything for BU. 1st line C. 1st PP. 1st PK. If they had a 5on3 he was the lone PK forward. If they needed a goal late, he was the extra attacker. This was on a team with Clayton Keller, Patrick Harper, Keifer Bellows, Jordan Greenway, McAvoy, Dante Fabbro... so there was no shortage of quality options.

I know a lot of highly respected folks think he has top6 upside but I'm not entirely sold on his offensive game being strong enough to drive a top6 line. I see him more as the perfect 3c. Good enough offensively that he can play with a mix of skill and grit and help make that line productive, while also being good enough defensively to be a real positive factor 5on5. That could be selling him short though... he certainly had some highlight reel goals at BU.

Like a Derek Stepan?

 

[PlayMakers]

Like a Derek Stepan?

Very much so. Good comp.

 

[Dr Hook]

Very much so. Good comp.

We could do a lot worse than have JFK grow into a Stepan-level player

 

[DKH]

Very much so. Good comp.

I actually thought that as well when I would watch him - a 2/3 solid player

Like to see him with Heinen & DeBrusk

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Some surprising low (or no) point totals from some surprising prospects.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Some surprising low (or no) point totals from some surprising prospects.

Like who?

 

[Bruin4Life]

^^ Every player has to put up at least 40-60 points in first AHL year or will be a bust. Look at that bum Draisatl who had 2 points in 6 ahl games. 0.33 point player in the AHL. Yikes thats scary numbers

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Like who?

Matt Grzelcyk for example. Zachary Senyshyn I expected not many points but several goals based on skill set. Zboril.

It's interesting but stat watching (I haven't gotten to a game yet) I had thought Providence would dominate offensively.

Seems to be a big divide between the prospects thriving and the rest slowly getting used to AHL life.

Looks like Macintyre and Vladar are doing well.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Matt Grzelcyk for example. Zachary Senyshyn I expected not many points but several goals based on skill set. Zboril.

It's interesting but stat watching (I haven't gotten to a game yet) I had thought Providence would dominate offensively.

Seems to be a big divide between the prospects thriving and the rest slowly getting used to AHL life.

Looks like Macintyre and Vladar are doing well.

Grzelcyk definitely is having a tough start. I haven't been able to make a game yet either, but I'd like to know what line Senyshyn seems to be playing on and who he tends to play with. I'm not really worried about Zboril or Lauzon, stat wise. I just like reading that they've been playing well at the position.

 

[LouJersey]

82 games average

DeBrusk 19-19-38
Bjork 18-25-42
Heinen 18-45-63

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

^^ Every player has to put up at least 40-60 points in first AHL year or will be a bust. Look at that bum Draisatl who had 2 points in 6 ahl games. 0.33 point player in the AHL. Yikes thats scary numbers

jesus christ, this type of response really makes constructive discussion difficult. nobody (me especially) is saying these guys will be busts. I was just pointing out that they're not off to hot starts. It's OK to acknowledge reality even if it's sometimes unpleasant.

 

[Dr Hook]

But Don Cherry always told me Euro players were soft and there was no hitting over there