Speculation: Brett Pesce's next contract

[captainpaxil]

7x5 is fair value. he's performed well enough to get top top money the issue is term

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

the league struggles with defender evals. I would say it is 5 mil x 8 years or 6 x 6.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

(Not Slavin’s partner as often?)

He hasn't been Slavin's partner since about 2017

He was with Faulk in 18-19
It was a hodgepodge in 19-20
He's been with Skjei pretty much ever since then.

He's been dealing with some injuries and his "poor play" is a bit exaggerated IMO. He and Skjei are the guys that have taken on the toughest assignments for the last 3 seasons. Slavin has been the stabilizing force on his pairing with Hamilton, DeAngelo and now Burns. Given the offensive ability of those 3, that pairing, that left Skjei-Pesce to do the heavy lifting defensively.

That said, he's been a good skater but a guy with a choppy stride and has had some injuries. His game isn't foot speed though, it's smarts and being able to process things quickly.

I'd be wary of giving him a long term deal simply because of the injuries and the fact that his skating style could be susceptible to degrading (speculation).

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If he hits the market he would be my #1 UFA target.

A Rielly-Pesce pair would be great

 

[NotOpie]

Ideally, probably even for the Canes, they'd be willing to go to 4 years (5 at the outside), but they're not paying a salary that starts with a 6 and ends with an *illion.
I'd probably do 5 X $5 million or 4 X $5.5 million.

 

[Ezpz]

Sounds like what happened to Vlasic is happening to him.

 

[Jarvi]

Any chance the Canes move him before the TDL if they don't feel they will re-sign him? I know moving a top 4 D from a contender seems like a pipedream, but maybe they have a replacement in mind or would like to swap him out for a top 6 fwd and have a lesser D fill his role.

Not sure how he would fit this year, but he is what Edmonton has needed for a long while.

 

[SEALBound]

I thought the Lindholm extension in Boston was a good comparable. He got $6.5mil x 8yrs. I think Lindholm is a bit better, so I think $6-6.5mil x 7-8yrs would be "fair." If they want shorter, maybe $7mil x 4-5yrs.

 

[SlavinAway]

Any chance the Canes move him before the TDL if they don't feel they will re-sign him? I know moving a top 4 D from a contender seems like a pipedream, but maybe they have a replacement in mind or would like to swap him out for a top 6 fwd and have a lesser D fill his role.

Not sure how he would fit this year, but he is what Edmonton has needed for a long while.

I'd say this is probably as close to a 0% chance as you can get.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Artem Zub got 4.600 FWIW

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I think that there's an underrated chance that Pesce sticks around in Carolina. Canes are not the type of team to overpay, but they do value different things than some other teams. I could easily see a situation where the Canes and Pesce find a number that works, especially because his poor offensive numbers this year could be a turn-off for potential overpays.

 

[Unsustainable]

I can see him moved at the draft maybe if terms cant be made.

I think the FO has shown a willingness to acquire Dmen. Chychyrn could be a potential target to replace him. Slavin is likely the only one to stay till retirement in the Defense.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I've been one of the more critical Canes fans re: Pesce over the last few years... and that's not to say I don't like him as a player, but I would say about 2 years ago Skjei surpassed him as to who was the better D-man on that pair and the gap has widened significantly at this point.

As others has mentioned, Pesce is a smart, positionally sound d-man, who plays more physical that his size... not that he's small... he's like 6'2/6'3... but he isn't a big guy. He has A LOT of hard and heavy minutes on him as his bread and butter is shutting things down through board play and net front presence. He plays a tough gritty game and while not an amazing skater he is decent for his style of play, but that is starting to fade.

Over this season and last, he has been getting beat more and more by quicker forwards and this isn't something he's going to get better at. He doesn't have the same stick work, skating, and positional awareness like Slavin to calmly thwart zone entries and threats before they happen.

He has put up some decent offensive numbers in the past for his style of play but he doesn't really have good offensive skills. His passing is average, and I'd say when the puck is on his stick it's borderline... seeing more and more turnovers over the last two seasons. He doesn't have a strong shot but he's smart with it.

He can continue to hang for a few more years as a 3 on a weak team or a 4 on a good team but in 2-3 years he's probably bottom pairing/veteran mentor type.

Signing him to an AAV that start with a $6+ is going to be a huge mistake if there is any significant term on that. If the Canes could bring him back on a 3-4 year deal at $4.5-5.5 then I'd be fine with that. Otherwise I hope he gets his big time payday from another team. He's worked hard and he's a complete gamer, but as others have mentioned, he's slowing and the wheels are gonna fall off in 2-3 years most likely.

 

[Menzinger]

6.5-7 mil x 7

 

[cheesymc]

His regression has been quite bad... he might need to take a prove it contract, but that hasn't turn out well for many players like Klingberg, Dumba, etc.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

His regression has been quite bad... he might need to take a prove it contract, but that hasn't turn out well for many players like Klingberg, Dumba, etc.

He still has a very solid around the leafue as a strong defensive RHD who can play up and down the lineup, with a variety of partners and also play LD if needed. He will get at minimum 4x4 type offers and non playoff or bubble teams with money to spend might throw a 6x6 out there. Unless he wants a 1-2 year deal and then try again hoping for something better he won’t go that route. And in general as a defensive D man that’s not typically the way to get a better deal. Defensive D-men are generally underpaid vs their offensive counterparts do it would be hard for him to ‘look amazing’ for a year or two and then have that translate into a monster contract. He doesn’t play that type of game where he could sell himself to teams like that.

 

[bleedgreen]

Any comments about his play this year? Thank you.

I think the slip in his play is pretty exaggerated. As a group we pick a couple of guys every year to criticize when we don’t win every night and Pesce drew the short stick sometime over the last year. He still makes great selfless defensive plays every night, and he can still move the puck. I think he looks a little stiffer and generally seems like he’s fighting off injuries, but I don’t really think he’s much slower. Both he and Slavin have lost a little bit of their jump, those tires have a lot of miles on them.

I don’t think I’d want to sign either one of them for more than five years but I’m sure someone will offer more. We’re going to have a real hard time replacing either of them.