Value of: Brett Pesce

[Cardiac Jerks]

hockey is also a sport of war id take the fully automatic assault rifle (nylander) over a bulletproof vest (pesce) and a pellet gun (3rd line scrub you get with that extra $290)

Can’t believe no one has laughed at this yet.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

Can’t believe no one has laughed at this yet.

We only have a “like” button. There is no “laugh” button.

 

[TakeTheBody]

This is the guy the Leafs have to acquire. Strictly based on how restricted they will be by the cap. Pesce's contract is too good. They may end up overpaying a bit but in the big picture it will be good for them.

 

[NotOpie]

hockey is also a sport of war id take the fully automatic assault rifle (nylander) over a bulletproof vest (pesce) and a pellet gun (3rd line scrub you get with that extra $290)

The problem is that you run out of bullets. The bulletproof vest always works.

I’d have to confirm the defensive numbers, but my point is, Pesce at a proposed (and outlandish) cost of Nylander isnt redefining our club. Given the option of having Pesce at the cost of Nylander vs Nutivaara while retaining Nylander, the latter is the much better option for Toronto.

In the end it is all about scoring goals or keeping the puck out of your net. Pesce does the latter exceedingly well. Here's some of the defensive stats (highlighting last 2 seasons to be able to compare apples to apples):

Pesce
ATOI - 21:12 (16-17); 20:54 (17-18)
Giveaways - career = 80/last 2 seasons = 58
Takeaways - career = 140/last 2 seasons = 93
Blocks - career = 346/last 2 seasons = 249
Hits - career = 152/last 2 seasons = 114

Nutivaara
ATOI - 13:13 (16-17); 16:02 (17-18)
Giveaways - 39
Takeaways - 18
Blocks - 78
Hits - 78

The ice time explains the difference in giveaways (Nutivaara's ratio is significantly higher that Pesce's). Brett's takeaway numbers indicate that he's just more effective at stripping the puck. He blocks more shots and, for a guy who isn't known for it, he throws more hits.

There's no value comparison between the two players today....maybe Nutivaara will get there, but he's not there yet.

Prediction: Car is gonna send their 2019 1st, Buff's second and Jake Bean/Julien Gauthier.

Maybe an offer sheet might work better here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think Toronto matches at anything at or above $7 million per season.

 

[Fogelhund]

Maybe an offer sheet might work better here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think Toronto matches at anything at or above $7 million per season.

Toronto likely matches, as long as the value of the contract is below $8.2 for compensation purposes. I think Toronto would take the 4 first round picks if above. The very well may have to trade him after though.

 

[Fogelhund]

This is my favourite graphic, showing defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities of D-men. The further to the right, the better the defender defensively. The higher up, the better offensively. Just a note, what it does lack, is context... Zone starts, Quality of competition. Some D look better than they are, because of this, some worse.

Tableau Public

You can easily see where Pesce is in terms of defensive strength.

 

[ITM]

In the end it is all about scoring goals or keeping the puck out of your net. Pesce does the latter exceedingly well. Here's some of the defensive stats (highlighting last 2 seasons to be able to compare apples to apples):

Pesce
ATOI - 21:12 (16-17); 20:54 (17-18)
Giveaways - career = 80/last 2 seasons = 58
Takeaways - career = 140/last 2 seasons = 93
Blocks - career = 346/last 2 seasons = 249
Hits - career = 152/last 2 seasons = 114

Nutivaara
ATOI - 13:13 (16-17); 16:02 (17-18)
Giveaways - 39
Takeaways - 18
Blocks - 78
Hits - 78

The ice time explains the difference in giveaways (Nutivaara's ratio is significantly higher that Pesce's). Brett's takeaway numbers indicate that he's just more effective at stripping the puck. He blocks more shots and, for a guy who isn't known for it, he throws more hits.

There's no value comparison between the two players today....maybe Nutivaara will get there, but he's not there yet.

I appreciate the information.

Ice time could also be used to reflect the difference in the other three categories in Nutivaara's potential favor. Recognizing the difference in value between the two players, I would rather have Nutivaara and keep Nylander, than trade Nylander for Pesce. I'm not in the camp that believes we have a window that's rapidly closing on a Cup. I don't think our program is close enough and I don't think we've had enough time with some of our players in order to evaluate their true value to the club.

How much does Slavin influence Pesce's success? Or...Is it the other way around?

Thanks.

 

[bluedevil58]

I appreciate the information.

Ice time could also be used to reflect the difference in the other three categories in Nutivaara's potential favor. Recognizing the difference in value between the two players, I would rather have Nutivaara and keep Nylander, than trade Nylander for Pesce. I'm not in the camp that believes we have a window that's rapidly closing on a Cup. I don't think our program is close enough and I don't think we've had enough time with some of our players in order to evaluate their true value to the club.

How much does Slavin influence Pesce's success? Or...Is it the other way around?

Thanks.

Both of them are really good. Let me reverse this and ask you how much Matthew's influences Nylander's success? Also, would John Tavaras influence his success if Nylander was playing right now? Could Nylander put up points on a bad offensive team? Could Nylander handle top defensive pairings every game? We know Pesce can play good defense on a bad team. We don't know if Nylander can put up 60 points on a bad offensive team though.

 

[ITM]

Both of them are really good. Let me reverse this and ask you how much Matthew's influences Nylander's success? Also, would John Tavaras influence his success if Nylander was playing right now? Could Nylander put up points on a bad offensive team? Could Nylander handle top defensive pairings every game? We know Pesce can play good defense on a bad team. We don't know if Nylander can put up 60 points on a bad offensive team though.

"Both of them are really good" doesn't answer the question I asked and it' not a slight to Pesce or to Slavin. But I'll respond to your question directly by pointing you to examine Nylander's international career and his developmental career in Sweden and ask you...Is there anything from his statistics that indicates William Nylander, is anything other than a very good offensive forward?

Perhaps he is a product of Matthews, although advanced stats suggest he drives play. Perhaps he's a product of Backstrom when playing internationally or of the Swedish developmental system.What's certain is that Nylander produces at every level and in multiple systems. Perhaps the common denominator is, William Nylander's just a very talented hockey player?

Per your example and my unanswered question, the season Pesce was +23 was also the season Slavin was a +23, while every other player on the Canes roster for 2016-2017 was a minus player except Lee Stempniak at a +2. That indicates that there's an influence one to the other or simply extraordinary chemistry occurring between Pesce and Slavin.

So it's not an incidental question when considering that flanking that +23 season, Pesce was -7 and -6 while Slavin remained a plus player, albeit +1...That indicates to me that the catalyst just might be Jacob Slavin and not Brett Pesce. And that any hypothetical conversation one might have concerning a trade for a Carolina defenceman with William Nylander as a principal going the other way shouldn't be named Brett Pesce, but Jacob Slavin.

But in any event, my strong preference to that effect, is to keep Nylander and kick tires on other potential comparable rather than use a principal piece like Nylander for the apparent lesser of Pesce and Slavin.

 

[bluedevil58]

"Both of them are really good" doesn't answer the question I asked and it' not a slight to Pesce or to Slavin. But I'll respond to your question directly by pointing you to examine Nylander's international career and his developmental career in Sweden and ask you...Is there anything from his statistics that indicates William Nylander, is anything other than a very good offensive forward?

Perhaps he is a product of Matthews, although advanced stats suggest he drives play. Perhaps he's a product of Backstrom when playing internationally or of the Swedish developmental system.What's certain is that Nylander produces at every level and in multiple systems. Perhaps the common denominator is, William Nylander's just a very talented hockey player?

Per your example and my unanswered question, the season Pesce was +23 was also the season Slavin was a +23, while every other player on the Canes roster for 2016-2017 was a minus player except Lee Stempniak at a +2. That indicates that there's an influence one to the other or simply extraordinary chemistry occurring between Pesce and Slavin.

So it's not an incidental question when considering that flanking that +23 season, Pesce was -7 and -6 while Slavin remained a plus player, albeit +1...That indicates to me that the catalyst just might be Jacob Slavin and not Brett Pesce. And that any hypothetical conversation one might have concerning a trade for a Carolina defenceman with William Nylander as a principal going the other way shouldn't be named Brett Pesce, but Jacob Slavin.

But in any event, my strong preference to that effect, is to keep Nylander and kick tires on other potential comparable rather than use a principal piece like Nylander for the apparent lesser of Pesce and Slavin.

So you're of the opinion Nylander can return Slavin or that Pesce is just a product of Slavin or both?

 

[SlavinAway]

Pesce and Slavin are both very good defensemen individually; together they have a 1+1=3 synergy.

Pesce is good enough that I wouldn't want to trade him for Nylander at this point and if Slavin is on the table at all (which he isn't) we're talking Marner or Matthews, not Nylander.

 

[ITM]

So you're of the opinion Nylander can return Slavin or that Pesce is just a product of Slavin or both?

Well let's isolate the concern implied in the unanswered question first. It appears that if there is an influence from one to the other, it's Slavin on Pesce rather than Pesce on Slavin.That's a question any GM will pose to his circle given the value of a player like Nylander. If that's the determination, then the obvious route of inquiry is to get the better player...isn't it?

As a Leafs fan asking (presumed) Canes' fans about the two, my starting point is always to keep Nylander. I believe Nylander is a better talent than Slavin or Pesce and certainly poses much more potential to Taylor Hall us in the event he was moved for an "all-around defenceman". I've stated repeatedly that I view Pesce as a supplementary piece rather than a primary piece when Nylander's name is involveed in hypothetical trade talks. I think Slavin is a more appropriate starting point.

And judging by the comment below, it appears that Slavin is the more influential of the two, leaving Pesce's value reasonably in question without Slavin.

Pesce and Slavin are both very good defensemen individually; together they have a 1+1=3 synergy.

Pesce is good enough that I wouldn't want to trade him for Nylander at this point and if Slavin is on the table at all (which he isn't) we're talking Marner or Matthews, not Nylander.

Slavin...for Matthews.
Pesce...for Nylander.

But Leafs fans are overvaluing Nylander...Alrighty then.

 

[emptyNedder]

So it's not an incidental question when considering that flanking that +23 season, Pesce was -7 and -6 while Slavin remained a plus player, albeit +1...That indicates to me that the catalyst just might be Jacob Slavin and not Brett Pesce.

This season Pesce is +6 and Slavin is 0. Slavin has had the "better" partner on a regular basis. Also, the WOWY for 16-17 (when both were +23) clearly showed Pesce improved Slavin more than Slavin improved Pesce. Last season it was reversed. So I think the answer is that both are elite defensive defensemen. This season (and the last 20 games of last season) Pesce has shown an offensive upside as well. Together they are a great pair, which is why several Canes fans have seriously stated they would rather trade Hamilton even though he is the new shiny addition.

 

[SlavinAway]

Slavin...for Matthews.
Pesce...for Nylander.

But Leafs fans are overvaluing Nylander...Alrighty then.

I didn't say it would be 1-for-1 Slavin for Matthews, I know that would never happen. I'm only saying that Slavin is so valuable to us that we wouldn't even consider moving him for anyone who is not an elite player. Slavin is better than Pesce but that doesn't detract from Pesce's value at all. Pesce could easily step into the top 4 on any team in the league.

 

[ITM]

I didn't say it would be 1-for-1 Slavin for Matthews, I know that would never happen. I'm only saying that Slavin is so valuable to us that we wouldn't even consider moving him for anyone who is not an elite player. Slavin is better than Pesce but that doesn't detract from Pesce's value at all. Pesce could easily step into the top 4 on any team in the league.

What scenario do you envision where Jacob Slavin is either sought after or approached for and the response is, "Marner or Matthews. Not a straight exchange, but one of those two pieces in a package involving Slavin for either Marner or Matthews." Aren't you still saying the same thing? That the lynchpin, the starting point for conversation on Slavin is Auston Matthews?

I'm not denegrating Pesce by trying to ascertain his worth, because I'm not interested in moving Nylander for him, in any model, including one similarly positioned in a Slavin not one for one for Matthews model.

I think the perceived necessity of the moment in Nylander's situation is completely deforming his value and that there are far too many conversations relativizing his worth to be equivocal for good pieces like Pesce that can be found similarly across the league for less cost than a William Nylander or Nik Ehlers.

 

[SlavinAway]

What scenario do you envision where Jacob Slavin is either sought after or approached for and the response is, "Marner or Matthews. Not a straight exchange, but one of those two pieces in a package involving Slavin for either Marner or Matthews." Aren't you still saying the same thing? That the lynchpin, the starting point for conversation on Slavin is Auston Matthews?

I'm not denegrating Pesce by trying to ascertain his worth, because I'm not interested in moving Nylander for him, in any model, including one similarly positioned in a Slavin not one for one for Matthews model.

I think the perceived necessity of the moment in Nylander's situation is completely deforming his value and that there are far too many conversations relativizing his worth to be equivocal for good pieces like Pesce that can be found similarly across the league for less cost than a William Nylander or Nik Ehlers.

I didn't say it was likely or even plausible; all I'm saying is that Slavin's value to us would take a vast overpayment (quality not quantity) to get us to even consider moving him.

I think many people are undervaluing Nylander right now but I also feel the same is happening to Pesce too. You would rather keep Nylander and I would rather keep Pesce.

 

[ITM]

This season Pesce is +6 and Slavin is 0. Slavin has had the "better" partner on a regular basis. Also, the WOWY for 16-17 (when both were +23) clearly showed Pesce improved Slavin more than Slavin improved Pesce. Last season it was reversed. So I think the answer is that both are elite defensive defensemen. This season (and the last 20 games of last season) Pesce has shown an offensive upside as well. Together they are a great pair, which is why several Canes fans have seriously stated they would rather trade Hamilton even though he is the new shiny addition.

This season Auston Matthews has 16 points and Conor McDavid has 11 points...As a Leafs fan, I humbly submit that Conor McDavid is the more valuable player.

You say, "Slavin has had the "better" partner on a regular basis. Be that as may be, I thought his regular partner was Pesce? I don't watch Carolina so I can't comment on consistent pairings. But it seems the consistent representation is Pesce and Slavin are paired more often than they're not. Is this accurate? If it is, when you note Pesce improved more than Slavin, is that akin to saying, Pesce's bottom was below Slavin's and so Pesce rose more than Slavin did....but did so from a level Slavin didn't have to improve from?

As for Hamilton...I'll agree with Canes fans there.

 

[GoldiFox]

What scenario do you envision where Jacob Slavin is either sought after or approached for and the response is, "Marner or Matthews. Not a straight exchange, but one of those two pieces in a package involving Slavin for either Marner or Matthews." Aren't you still saying the same thing? That the lynchpin, the starting point for conversation on Slavin is Auston Matthews?

I'm not denegrating Pesce by trying to ascertain his worth, because I'm not interested in moving Nylander for him, in any model, including one similarly positioned in a Slavin not one for one for Matthews model.

I think the perceived necessity of the moment in Nylander's situation is completely deforming his value and that there are far too many conversations relativizing his worth to be equivocal for good pieces like Pesce that can be found similarly across the league for less cost than a William Nylander or Nik Ehlers.

You keep assuming that Pesce could only be worth Nylander in a scenario where the offer assumes Nylander’s value is depressed due to his circumstances.

How much Pesce have you actually watched? Honestly? Pesce is worth a #1 winger all on his own. No value suppression needed. If Winnipeg wanted Pesce, the cost would be Ehlers as well.

This season Auston Matthews has 16 points and Conor McDavid has 11 points...As a Leafs fan, I humbly submit that Conor McDavid is the more valuable player.

You say, "Slavin has had the "better" partner on a regular basis. Be that as may be, I thought his regular partner was Pesce? I don't watch Carolina so I can't comment on consistent pairings. But it seems the consistent representation is Pesce and Slavin are paired more often than they're not. Is this accurate? If it is, when you note Pesce improved more than Slavin, is that akin to saying, Pesce's bottom was below Slavin's and so Pesce rose more than Slavin did....but did so from a level Slavin didn't have to improve from?

As for Hamilton...I'll agree with Canes fans there.

So you never watch Carolina, you don't even know what their D pairings look like, but you also have a strong opinion about the value of their players? Classic.

 

[ITM]

I didn't say it was likely or even plausible; all I'm saying is that Slavin's value to us would take a vast overpayment (quality not quantity) to get us to even consider moving him.

I think many people are undervaluing Nylander right now but I also feel the same is happening to Pesce too. You would rather keep Nylander and I would rather keep Pesce.

I completely understand the notion of value to the club. Nylander is that. Marner is beyond that and Matthews is as untouchable a player as has ever put on a Leafs sweater in my lifetime.

It's interesting because many fans take depth of strength at position as being a catalyst to undermine that position of strength in order to shore up weaknesses. An either/or scenario. I don't view team building in that way. If I'm Carolina's GM, I look at my defense as being fundamental to success and only acquire improvement at needed position by moving from that position and offsetting it with similar positional players. In other words, the trade with Calgary was the right idea. What Edmonton did with Hall, the absolute wrong idea. And it's the latter example I see happening if Nylander moves for, whomever, with no disrespect intended toward Larsson or Pesce.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I think the perceived necessity of the moment in Nylander's situation is completely deforming his value and that there are far too many conversations relativizing his worth to be equivocal for good pieces like Pesce that can be found similarly across the league for less cost than a William Nylander or Nik Ehlers.

Name 5.

 

[GoldiFox]

Name 5.

The poster just said he never watches Carolina and has no idea if Slavin and Pesce even play together. I'm going to go ahead and guess he doesn't have a good idea of comparable players to a player he never watches.

 

[ITM]

You keep assuming that Pesce could only be worth Nylander in a scenario where the offer assumes Nylander’s value is depressed due to his circumstances.

How much Pesce have you actually watched? Honestly? Pesce is worth a #1 winger all on his own. No value suppression needed. If Winnipeg wanted Pesce, the cost would be Ehlers as well.



So you never watch Carolina but you also have a strong opinion about the value of their players? Classic.

Omitting questions I've had on Pesce is an even better example that you're hoping to find in my approach. If it's too much to read the entire thread, then don't chime in. Feelings what they are, I've inquired about Pesce because I know about Nylander. I can access Pesce's stats and I can access Slavin's and infer the obvious while still asking for impressions on their mutual influence on one another.

You said: "How much Pesce have you actually watched? Honestly?"

Why not ask how much hockey I've actually watched? Honestly...Born in Toronto in the 70s. Watched almost every game since I can recall...Watched HNIC late games for as long as I can remember...Watch as much playoffs hockey as I am able to...I watch and have watched a lot of hockey. My opinion on Nylander, independent viewing Pesce on a regular basis, balances that accumulated knowledge and concludes Nylander's value as being exceptional amongst his peers. This to say, I have a strong opinion on Toronto's players because I've seen them play and wouldn't want their value compromised due to the impression of needing an urgent resolve.

Perhaps you haven't actually watched William Nylander play? Rather than run on the presumption you haven't, I'll wait for your answer to the question I've asked and determine the next appropriate line to follow, rather than occasion need for insult...where it might not be warranted.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Slavin has had the "better" partner on a regular basis. Also, the WOWY for 16-17 (when both were +23) clearly showed Pesce improved Slavin more than Slavin improved Pesce. Last season it was reversed.

I think this is because the only time Slavin and Pesce were on the ice without the other in 16-17 was when Slavin would be double shifted at the end of games, when the team went into defensive shell mode. Whereas 17-18, Pesce sat for the last 4th of the year with an injury so Slavin got regular reps with someone else.

 

[ITM]

The poster just said he never watches Carolina and has no idea if Slavin and Pesce even play together. I'm going to go ahead and guess he doesn't have a good idea of comparable players to a player he never watches.

Well I've never followed Markus Nutivaara to any focused degree, but his stats convey similarity that wouldn't demand William Nylander in return. I've also mentioned Justin Braun on the Leafs boards. He doesn't tick that oh so wonderful box of trust us his potential is there and will be realized once you've acquired him age descriptor, but it appears his stats convey similar possibilities.

I also didn't actually say that I had no idea if Slavin and Pesce play together but noted I'm not sure how often they do but that from statistical appearance and random testimony to that effect, that they have...Thus the questions about one's effect on the other. See that's the only reasonable inference you could glean if you were interested in a calm exchange of information rather than inciting misrepresentation to your fellow fan...I guess to feel what? Empowered?

It's a good guess of possibility, but, there's not a shred of charity about it. So...Nutivaara, Braun...Names repeatedly thrown in with respect to Toronto's concerns. And the comparison doesn't need to be interchangeable. I've said I'd rather have Nutivaara and Nylander rather than Pesce at the cost of Nylander.

Never mind the nuance though. Go ahead...solicit more support for your preferred focus.

 

[ITM]

Name 5.

Well no one's your dog, so two will do, especially since the object isn't to trade for five options, just one that supplements our defense without trading William Nylander. Those two names I've mentioned on the Leafs boards are Markus Nutivaara and Justin Braun.

My objective, like many Leafs fans, is to keep our talent on forward and trade from expendable assets, of which Nylander isn't one. So to repeat, the objective is to retain Nylander, not trade for Pesce. To that end, I'd like to keep Nylander and acquire a similar player (noting full well that similar need not be a precise substitute) rather than trade Nylander.