The only way this will happen is if the NHL owns a large number of the teams.
With the western move the ECHL essentially lost some of its best drawing markets in Ontario and Bako, and replaced them with weaker markets such as Adirondack.
Manchester may survive, but certainly can't be as financially strong as when they were in the AHL. Maybe Norfolk can be OK since fans there have no other alternative for hockey.
If there is a large number of teams owned by the NHL I think fans in those cities will see through the whole scheme and realize that their team is not there to win at all, but is just a place to stash prospects and "develop talent".
There are at least 5 existing markets on shaky ground as in Kalamazoo, Wheeling, Elmira, Brampton, and Evansville. Adirondack is not looking good either.
They will need to come up with at least another 7 markets to place teams to get to the 30.
This is not baseball. 30-30-30 may happen, but this will not benefit the fans in any way, makes no financial sense, and relies on a bottom-down approach being forced on markets.
If they do get to 30 they will have to keep replacing 3-4 teams each year as if there were that many viable AA level markets they would already have teams, so you are resorting to areas with marginal support and ultimately a lot of turnover.
I agree with your post entirely. I think the 30-30-30 model over any considerable time frame is a pipe dream unless NHL teams go into direct ownership or heavy subsidization of ECHL franchises.
The ECHL has huge issues, many of which, are linked to its "overaffiliated", if you will, model.
It's not just playing players who are bad-especially goalies-over better players, it's the overall style of hockey being played. The ECHL is a relatively low minor league and most of the fans aren't sophisticated hockey fans. As fighting and hitting become more rare by the season, these fans-along with sophisticated ones who enjoy the physical elements of the game-are becoming bored with the product. People would much rather see some heavy duty fighting than watch David Desharnais, Scott Darling, Anthony Bittetto, Logan Shaw and Byron Froese-all former Cyclones who are now in the NHL. Most fans at a Cincinnati game couldn't even name 8 players on the team if you put a gun to their heads. I doubt most could name more than one Cyclones alumnus currently playing in the NHL. For most in attendance at any given game, it's about action, goals and fighting to them, not "development" or even winning.
The Cincinnati management team has done a great job marketing the team. It appears to be healthy to me and I'm not worried about it leaving. But, there are so many teams in the league whose real attendance is probably in the 50-66% of what is announced and that is not good.
My list of health of ECHL franchises:
Good to Excellent:
Toledo, Colorado, Missouri, Fort Wayne, Cincinnati (5)
Mediocre Health:
Florida, Indy, Orlando, Quad Cities, Atlanta, Alaska, Idaho, Wheeling , Utah (9)
Poor Health:
Brampton, Evansville, South Carolina, Greenville, Reading, Elmira, Kalamazoo (7)
No opinion:
Adirondack, Norfolk, Manchester, Tulsa, Wichita, Rapid City, Allen(7)
By my measure, over half of the teams are not in real good shape and could be listed as doubtful to be in the ECHL anywhere from 1 to, say, 10 years down the line.
I think the ECHL is 100% committed to its current business model (30/30/30, heavy NHL/AHL influence) and until the structure starts to crumble, I wouldn't expect any alteration in their basic strategy.
The 30/30/30 cannot be achieved long term without NHL subsidy. I can see the NHL going either way on ECHL subsidization.