Brady-Quinnest NHL pick?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Lambert Closse, Jun 15, 2007.

  1. Lambert Closse

    Lambert Closse Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Messages:
    817
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    2313 Ste-Catherine W
    Home Page:
    Or which former # 1 top NHL prospect fell down on draft day?

    I remember in 1990 Mike Ricci dropping to # 4. Then in 1994 Radek Bonk fell to # 3 while being rank # 1 prospect for awhile. A year before he was eligible Daniel Cleary was consider possible #1 for the 1997 draft but dropped to # 13 on draft day. That being said, he was not considered a # 1 on the eve of the draft.

    My point is that we get so many "worst draft pick" and "biggest bust" thread that we tend to forget that NHL management make their decison with the information they have on draft day and the can project all they want, they cannot read the future and each team as the same #1 pick.

    Drafting Doug Wickenheiser, Alexandre Daigle or Patrik Stefan were not mistakes as any other team given the opportunity would have done the same.

    Could it be safe to say that all if not most NHL top prospects are selected in the top 3 while it's not the case in the NFL and NBA.
     
  2. deflowd

    deflowd Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2007
    Messages:
    573
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    76
    it doesn't really happen in the NHL draft because the NFL is so highly specialized in terms of positions and players are expected to come in and make an immediate impact. That means the best player available isn't always the right draft pick for the particular team in question and guys drop, but in the NHL you need to give most guys 2-3 years to develop at least so you don't know where your team will be at that point.

    With that said, Kessel dropped to 5 from consensus 1st overall, Patrick O'sullivan's drop because of charector issues though is probably the most dramatic recent example i can think of.

    Russian guys dropping before the fall of the Soviet Union because of Visa/defecting concerns were substantial too.
     
  3. norwoodmustang

    norwoodmustang Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2005
    Messages:
    2,227
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    96
    Location:
    Norwood, MA USA
    Sergei Samsonov was considered the #1 overall pick a year before the draft and dropped to #8.
     
  4. Meichel Kane

    Meichel Kane My Name Is

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    10,821
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Esposito used to be #1 I think.
     
  5. Jimmi McJenkins

    Jimmi McJenkins Sometimes Miracles

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2006
    Messages:
    49,259
    Likes Received:
    384
    Trophy Points:
    154
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Public Servant
    Location:
    Alberta
    Kyle Chipchura, was one of the top prospects in his draft year, then an injury and questions about foot speed forced him to the Habs at #18
     
  6. DaveG

    DaveG Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2003
    Messages:
    39,836
    Likes Received:
    5,507
    Trophy Points:
    232
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Brewer/Medical Software
    Location:
    Winston-Salem NC
    Awards:
    Rob Schremp maybe? At one time he was among the top 3 in the draft, ended up falling to the 20s (25 I think).
     
  7. daethfromabove1979

    daethfromabove1979 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2006
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    96
    frolik and jesse jonesue were both ranked number 1 for last years draft at some point in time.. frolik went tenth i think and jesse fell to the late second maybe
     
  8. kingsfan25

    kingsfan25 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2003
    Messages:
    8,835
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Canada
    Home Page:
    It's not really an interesting case unless that player plummets on draft day due to the fact that the rankings fluctuate so much.
     
  9. misfit

    misfit 5-14-6-1

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2004
    Messages:
    16,307
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    just north of...everything
    It's much easier for a player to drop like Quinn did in football, because the players are almost always ready to step in and play right away, which means teams almost always pick based on need rather than who is the best player available at the time. In hockey, if a player drops, it's because the teams picking saw someone else who they thought was (or was going to be) a better hockey player.

    Brady Quinn didn't drop because other players were seen as better, he fell because only one other team that picked when Quinn was on the board thought Russell was better.
     
  10. Esposito will... I still think that he could be drafted top 5 but teams may be weary and he could slip way down.
     
  11. GoneFullHextall

    GoneFullHextall Cautiously pessimistic pretty much all the time

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2003
    Messages:
    46,842
    Likes Received:
    2,081
    Trophy Points:
    232
    Chereponov is going to fall, or at the very least as the potental to with the lack of a transfer agreement.
     
  12. Lambert Closse

    Lambert Closse Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Messages:
    817
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    2313 Ste-Catherine W
    Home Page:
    That's my point. I understand that from the start of the season to the draft, many prospects could be ranked # 1 and then drop. I wanted to point out that in the NHL for various reasons already mentionned the #1 prospect don't fall below # 3.
     
  13. NYR469

    NYR469 Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    5,785
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Home Page:
    just to clarify, are you talking about just guys ranked #1 at draft time that dropped? or are you also including guys that were ranked #1 months or a year before that dropped? going by memory there are probably very few guys ranked #1 at draft time that fell more then a handful of spots. but there are tons of guys that were ranked as top 10 picks in the initial rankings at the start of the year and then didn't even go in the 1st round, but thats usually a gradual decline to the point that by draft time they are no longer expected to go high.
     
  14. mooseOAK*

    mooseOAK* Guest

    Patrick O' Sullivan is another one.
     
  15. Wojtek Wolski.
     
  16. Rabid Ranger

    Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    22,311
    Likes Received:
    205
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Occupation:
    Contract manager
    Location:
    Murica
    I was thinking of Adam Colagiacamo.
     
  17. Lambert Closse

    Lambert Closse Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Messages:
    817
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    2313 Ste-Catherine W
    Home Page:
    Top ranked prospects on the eve of the draft that drop down on draft day.
     
  18. Gustave

    Gustave Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2007
    Messages:
    4,945
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    86
    Location:
    Here
    Rob Schremp dropped a lot on Draft Day: attitude concerns I believe...

    To a certain point, and I say certain, Kopitar was a projected top 5 in talent but him being from Slovenia prevented that. It wasn't like Brady, but a drop for sure.
     
  19. Irish Blues

    Irish Blues Worth waiting for :)

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,800
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Occupation:
    Actuary
    Marek Schwarz, 2004. Was a virtual lock to be a top-10 pick according to everyone that covers the draft, and was 1/2 with Al Montoya as the best goalies in the draft.

    On draft day, Schwarz was still on the board at 11 and the TSN crew figured Los Angeles would take him. They were stunned when Minnesota didn't take him at 12, somewhat surprised when Buffalo didn't take him at 13, then went berserk when Edmonton came up at #14 and instead took Devan Dubnyk. St. Louis finally came up at 17 and took Schwarz, and I think it was McKenzie who exclaimed, "IT'S ABOUT TIME!" right after the selection was announced.

    That's probably the closest example in the last few drafts.
     
  20. rigger

    rigger Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2004
    Messages:
    8,950
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Occupation:
    Dream Weaver
    Location:
    Jessica Alba's Dream
    This year espowill fall into this category.

    Cherry may be a Kopitar like drop, top 3 to maybe top 10.

    Cunit as well has dropped significantly.
     
  21. Ferjo

    Ferjo Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2004
    Messages:
    254
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    76
    he's who I had in mind when i clicked the thread. He was rated up there with Thornton to start the year, and by the draft, was still rated as a mid-first round pick before slipping to the fourth on draft day. I think he ended up retiring within 4 or 5 years. 97 was supposed to be some unbelievable year for the OHL, with Thornton, Tkaczuk, Cleary, Colagiacamo, and Jarrett Smith pegged as top 10 prospects, and only one worked out as expected.

    Jiri Hudler dropped to the second round after being a top 10 prospect on draft day, Evseev slipped to the second after being a top 5 prospect at the start of the season. Petr Hamrlik was rated top 5 in 2000 at one point and went third round.

    Alot of people had Risto Korhonen in the first round in 05, after he was rated very high to start the year and he slipped to late fifth round.

    And another first round fall, Michael Henrich fell a bit. I think it was Redline that had him second overall, but no one thought he'd go any lower than sixth or seventh. After the Ducks, Isles, Leafs and Avs all go off the board to take Vishnevsky, Rupp, Antropov and Tanguay he fell to 13th. The big stunner was that the leafs didn't take their hometown boy.
     
  22. Dwight

    Dwight The French Tickler

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2006
    Messages:
    8,181
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    West Island
    Couture used to be #1 ranked, now he's hovering around 10th
     
  23. X-SHARKIE

    X-SHARKIE Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2003
    Messages:
    9,362
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Janesville Wisconsin
    Home Page:
    Couture, Esposito, and Cherepanov are the players this year that I could see taking a Brady Quinn like fall.
     
  24. Bam Beet*

    Bam Beet* Guest

    Yup, he fell because a week before the draft, he got into a fight at a house party and he allegedly pushed some kid off a balcony or something because he did something to Wolski's girlfriend. Anyways the charges were dropped but he still fell all the way to 21 after being a top 5 player.
     
  25. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    17,168
    Likes Received:
    194
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    San Diego
    Can't remember something as dramatic as Quinn dropping from potential #3 to #22. In the NFL, teams obviously draft with a higher regard to positional need than the NHL. So teams were passing on Quinn simply because they already had a QB. That wouldn't happen in the NHL (or at least shouldn't).

    I remember Petr Sykora dipped a bit in 1995 with teams concerned about his shoulder. Went from a top 10 pick down to #18 to the Devils.

    Guillaume Latendresse in 2005? I seem to remember most thinking he was a consensus top 10 pick and he falls to the middle of the 2nd round. As others noted, O'Sullivan fell quite a bit. And I seem to remember Patrick Thoresen was a rated by THN as a late first rounder in his draft year, and then he proceeds to go undrafted.
     

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"