BPA vs. Organizational Need

Le Golie

...
Jul 4, 2002
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How do you know if 2 players are an absolute tie? Let's say you are comparing a d-man from Europe and a winger from the Q at the 150th spot you can accurately discern which is the BPA? IMO a tremendous amount of subjectivity goes into BPA.

That's the entire point of the draft though. Teams spend millions of dollars on scouting so that they can get an edge in accurately predicting what players will end up contributing most effectively in the NHL one day. Some are a lot better at it than others.

It's also a dynamic environment. Teams know what resources they have available to a prospect and what they may have working for, or against, their development.

It's such a long time before the player is in the NHL, it's a fools game to guess your organizational needs 4 years down the road.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
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That's the entire point of the draft though. Teams spend millions of dollars on scouting so that they can get an edge in accurately predicting what players will end up contributing most effectively in the NHL one day. Some are a lot better at it than others.

But taken as a whole, after the 2nd round which pick becomes an NHL player and which pick never plays a game looks like random fluctuation. For example in the 2011 draft (draft +5 years) starting at the beginning of the 3rd round players that have played 80 NHL games. Picks: 64, 67, 79, 82, 96, 104, 114, 139, 148, 160, 184, 195, 205, 208. The top 3: 104 - Gaudreau, 139 - Shaw and 208 - Palat.

I get the concept of BPA, but it doesn't take far into the draft until it almost completely becomes unpredictable which pick makes it and which doesn't. At that point it becomes almost an art trying to guess what attributes lead to future success and which lead to dead ends.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Jun 10, 2014
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I'd say that the variables you mention, and the complicated benefit analysis they entail, are all part of determining what the BPA is.

Once your board is determined, draft according to it. An unnecessary top 6 winger is always better than an AHL LHD.

Is that ever going to be the choice you are faced with? The 14th guy on your list is a probable top 6 winger and the 15th is a probable AHL LHD? I agree though that you should stick to your list because it should rank all the prospects by value as it applies to your team. If some circumstance changed you could re-evaluate but I can't imagine what kind of thing could lead you to that.

The way BPA is being described here covers all factors including organizational need so the question of this thread becomes moot.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Puckatron 3000 great post!

There's no right or wrong answer really also for either going BPA and/or for organizational need there sometimes come a time when your drafting a player at the draft position number you have that fills both BPA and organizational need at the very same time.

As for our Jets I think Chevy has much more chess pieces to play with now than he has ever had, so Chevy's wheeling and dealing options as well as filling BPA and organizational need scenarios have also increased now with our lucky 2nd round pick.

We all know how Chevy did well when forced to move Kane so it will be even more interesting to see what Chevy can do now going forward with so many more options and as far as I am concerned I think Chevy will surprise us all at how well he can fill BPA, organizational needs and make our Jets even better than they are now and us fans will be very surprised and very happy when he does!

Go Jets Go

I agree. Basically it has to be BPA. Position is essentially only a tie-breaker. If drafting BPA leads to a wealth of forwards and a lack of defensemen like what the Jets currently have though you have to be prepared to give up some of your most prized prospects in trade to balance it out. This could be done at any stage in theory. You could start swapping the day after the draft but the preference seems to be to wait until 2-3 years into the development of the prospects when it is more clear where they are going to land. That is not the important thing as long as it is done before the lack in one area affects the NHL team.

The important point I think is that you have to be prepared to pay quality for quality. The trade proposals that we see here and on the mainboards seem to lean towards being the type where we propose giving up 3 middling pieces who might never amount to much in the NHL in exchange for top 6/top 4 players. Then there is the 5 pieces of pure junk, players that a team just needs to shed in exchange for their start prospect. :laugh:

I think the recent Nashville - CBJ trade is a good example. We won't know who won that trade for 2-3 years but it was a 1C for a potential 1D, both young. It was 2 teams with offsetting needs who both gave up a quality player in exchange for a quality player of similar ages and development levels.

All that said what is Edmonton going to do in 4th place? Their situation fits this discussion because they are clearly unbalanced with high end forwards and lacking RHD. PLD is probably BPA. If not him then it is Tkachuk. The top D is probably 6th and we aren't even sure who that is. Chychrun? Sergachyev? Juolevi? The Oil need a top pair D - right handed shot. Those top 3 are all LHD. So is Jake Bean. The highest ranked RHD is likely Fabbro ranked around the 12-21 range.

So it looks like they will just about have to draft yet another high ranked forward. Not what they need. Will they choose between PLD and Tkachuk? Or will they deal the pick for a RHD? The other option would be to keep the pick but trade some other asset(s) for a RHD.

This is possibly the most interesting thing to watch. :popcorn: I think last years trade for Reinhart surprised just about everybody. Maybe this year they trade him back to the Isles in exchange for Hamonic. :laugh:
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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That's the entire point of the draft though. Teams spend millions of dollars on scouting so that they can get an edge in accurately predicting what players will end up contributing most effectively in the NHL one day. Some are a lot better at it than others.

It's also a dynamic environment. Teams know what resources they have available to a prospect and what they may have working for, or against, their development.

It's such a long time before the player is in the NHL, it's a fools game to guess your organizational needs 4 years down the road.

Amazing that they spend so many millions and get outperformed by hobbyist making a basic algorithm.
 

gbill2004*

Registered User
Sep 23, 2011
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Oilers draft BPA, which will be a forward. They will then trade Eberle/Hall for a d-man.
 

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