The Athletic - Boston Boston Bruins 2021-22 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

Fenway

HF Bookie and Bruins Historian
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Finally, we’ve made it to the top five and it’s an unsurprising group of teams. It’s literally the exact same top five from last season’s previews: Boston, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Vegas.

Boston was fifth among that contender pileup last year and I’m sure there are some that are surprised the Bruins even grade out as highly anymore. They had the 10th best record in the league last season and lost some pretty important players during the offseason. It stands to reason that Boston shouldn’t be expected to improve in the standings.

But that’s the difference between real results and projected ones as Boston’s 102 projected points is in fact a step down from last season’s 106-point pace. And 2019-20’s 117-point pace. This is probably a team in decline, though the Bruins are coming from such a high place that it’s still safer to expect they’ll hover around their usual locale.


The Projection

Screen-Shot-2021-10-03-at-1.49.04-PM.png


The Roster

Screen-Shot-2021-10-03-at-1.48.55-PM.png


In the end, the Bruins are who they usually are thanks to their collection of elite talent, but their season will be defined by how much they can get out of their new talent. It doesn’t look like much as the fresh faces look like they can plug holes in the lineup rather than meaningfully contribute in those roles. That means a likely step back for the team with a much heavier emphasis placed on the team’s top-end talent to carry them.

Those guys can do that though, much better than most team’s top-end talent can. Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak and McAvoy are the reason the Bruins rank so highly year after year and that should be the case again this season until proven otherwise. In Hall, Smith and Grzelcyk the team has some strong support behind them which should make up for the lack of depth otherwise.

Boston won’t have many more chances to contend for a Stanley Cup, but this season should still be a good one for it — even if it’s not as large of a chance as usual.
 

BruinsBtn

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
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This guy's model is garbage, he did worse than a coinflip in the playoffs. Any model that ranks Taylor Hall and Craig Smith as equal players is ....questionable.
 
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4ORRBRUIN

Registered User
Sep 27, 2005
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Dat centre depth

Why is Carlo rated so low? If they take injuries into consideration, maybe.

I get a ton of pushback on Carlo but to me, he's grossly overrated in Boston. Brings zero in the physical game and actually attracts big hits on himself on nothing plays.

At this point, he is what he is. Big and a great skater that uses he long stick in passing lanes. In front of the net? creampuff.
 

JAD

Old School
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I have Boston at 98 points +/- 3 ... depending on health and puck luck.
 

BlackFrancis

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Dec 14, 2013
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Why are the two 23% bars different heights?

Why is Carlo rated so low?
Carlo had a lousy season, at least compared with his 2019.

He was trying to bully someone last night, and the last time I remember him doing that was during the 2019 season, so hopefully he's back on track.
 

RoccoF14

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This guy's model is garbage, he did worse than a coinflip in the playoffs. Any model that ranks Taylor Hall and Craig Smith as equal players is ....questionable.
I've been reading him for a couple of years now as well, and I take whatever his "model" shits out with a grain of salt. For gambling purposes, his model is marginal at best, and he's NEVER been statistically significant in accuracy with his predictions. This year, his model has the Seattle Kraken as the 10th best team in the league, with Yanni Gourde as their 1C at a +1.7. That's all you need to know, right there.....

I don't want to turn this into a Hockey Analytics debate.....All I'll say is that who you are on the ice with, has a LOT more to do with your GSVA, than any other sport......and ANYTHING that says Yanni Gourde is an above average 1C needs to be viewed with suspicion.
 
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BruinsBtn

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
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Why are the two 23% bars different heights?


Carlo had a lousy season, at least compared with his 2019.

He was trying to bully someone last night, and the last time I remember him doing that was during the 2019 season, so hopefully he's back on track.

Carlo is weighted low because all defensive defensemen are rated low in this model. It's a model that likes to pretend that teams don't have to kill penalties or defend leads.
 
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BruinsJoe

Registered User
Sep 29, 2020
1,569
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I get a ton of pushback on Carlo but to me, he's grossly overrated in Boston. Brings zero in the physical game and actually attracts big hits on himself on nothing plays.

At this point, he is what he is. Big and a great skater that uses he long stick in passing lanes. In front of the net? creampuff.
you are absolutely right, Carlo is a big soft D great skater, should shoot the puck more often, and he s a great D for Bruins. AND now we have one of the baddest big soft slow D in Forbort what a bad signing at 3 millons, this guy is simply bad thats it...This D corp is not physical, cannot clear the crease and we saw last night vs Caps, when a team play phisycal, Bruins are pretty weak to start the play in their own zone, D lose the puck and fall in their ass, i m not confidence in this soft D corp, and i even talked about Reilly, what the hell this guy is so scary of physical play, jesus christ, another guy with a bad 3 millions contract who looks goods in regular season when its not too physical, but...sad!
 

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