Bold Predictions: 1. There WILL be NHL hockey in January.

[David]

1. No matter how stupid the players are, even they are not stupid enough to let the season go by because in the GRAND scheme of things, the only people that they are hurting by holding out longer is themselves. At this point, I don't think that any of the fans really care if the season was cancelled...actually I think that most are expecting it. If the season does get cancelled, then it becomes that much easier to use replacement players...and if that happens, the NHLPA guys (especially the lower rung ones) will have to come crawling back for whatever the going rate is at that time...even if it's $5 bucks/hour! There are minor legal ramifications but they are just that...Minor, and no matter how stupid the players may be, they cannot possibly be THAT stupid!


2. Many fringe NHL'ers will lose their job as a result of this none sense that's been going on for the last 4 months. No matter what the PA reps may say now, they nor your Chris Prongers nor your Bryan McCabes will be willing to give up their money to keep your Pierre Dagenais, Mike Commodores and other such fringe players in the NHL. NHL hockey will suffer for the next 5 to 10 years as a result of this year's lockout and the recovery will be slow.


3. Bob Goodenow will be relieved of his duty. After the 1994 lockout, Gary Bettman has done a pretty good job of ensuring that the owners are ready for this current lockout (now if he could just channel that energy into properly marketing the game and making it better!) However, on the flip side, Bob Goodenow rested on his laurels and he's in between a rock and a hard place right now with very limited actions available to him. Once this lockout thing is resolved, or in order to resolve this lockout thing, Bob Goodenow's head will roll.

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[Captain Lou]

1. Wrong
2. Wrong
3. Wrong

1. This is about pride now, the players have already offered back 24% of their collective salaries, only to have the NHL slap them in the face by making their ridiculous "offer". Secondly, these "minor legal issues" are hardly minor. The NHL has to get their impasse if they want to use scabs. The PA (and many others) believe the owners chances of this are small, seeing as they haven't even made a complete offer. An impasse is used to implement a "last best offer", which the NHL hasn't even proposed yet, and you can bet that after Jan. 14, there will be no more negotiation. So, I don't really see the players coming back for what the NHL is proposing, just to save money. If the owners don't get their impasse, then they will have blundered big time, and caused the shutdown of the game for a year (minimum) for no good reason. The PA knows this, and for that reason, the next move must come from the owners. The only way the players come back is if the lague offers them something much more substantial than previous.

2. Unless there is contraction, no fringe players will lose their jobs. There will still be 30 teams and roughly 600 jobs. The fringe guys are still needed to fill out the rosters of these teams. Not only that, but their salaries (the real bottom feeders) will not decrease either.

3. Bob Goodenow is not stupid, as many here portray him. Many people only look at the short term ("Look at all the millions these players are losing....etc.). This fight from the PA side is about protecting rights of ALL players to seek the maximum salary the market will bear. This is not about Chris Pronger, per se, but it is about the fact that every player thinks that one day, he might get that big payday. Ask youself, why is George Bush so popular in this country as far as his tax plans? It's because everyone thinks, that with hard work and maybe a little luck, they could be rich, too. And if you think it can't happen, look at a guy like Pavol Demitra or Marting Straka. Both of these guys were discarded by Ottawa (when they sucked). Now they make multi million dollar salaries, due to a couple of breakout years and improved all-around play. These guys do not get this far without having the belief that they can become among the elite. It's the attitude that is necessary to get this far. As far as his handling of the situation, it is not up to you (or any of us) to decide whether he should stay or go. He is protecting the best interests of the whole association, and if they wanted a deal so bad, the bottom 51% could order him to make a deal with Bettman. They haven't yet, and I doubt they will. Also, think about this. The highest paid players have already lost 1/2 their salaries, sacrificing upwards of $5 MM minimum (not even counting the other 24%) so that guys like Mike Commodore and Pierre Dagenais can have the VEHICLE to get the big payday. It might never happen for those two guys specifically, but it will happen again, where a no-name suddenly becomes a star and wants to get paid like it. THAT is what the PA is fighting for.

 

[Twine Seeking Missle]

1. No matter how stupid the players are, even they are not stupid enough to let the season go by because in the GRAND scheme of things, the only people that they are hurting by holding out longer is themselves. At this point, I don't think that any of the fans really care if the season was cancelled...actually I think that most are expecting it. If the season does get cancelled, then it becomes that much easier to use replacement players...and if that happens, the NHLPA guys (especially the lower rung ones) will have to come crawling back for whatever the going rate is at that time...even if it's $5 bucks/hour! There are minor legal ramifications but they are just that...Minor, and no matter how stupid the players may be, they cannot possibly be THAT stupid!


2. Many fringe NHL'ers will lose their job as a result of this none sense that's been going on for the last 4 months. No matter what the PA reps may say now, they nor your Chris Prongers nor your Bryan McCabes will be willing to give up their money to keep your Pierre Dagenais, Mike Commodores and other such fringe players in the NHL. NHL hockey will suffer for the next 5 to 10 years as a result of this year's lockout and the recovery will be slow.


3. Bob Goodenow will be relieved of his duty. After the 1994 lockout, Gary Bettman has done a pretty good job of ensuring that the owners are ready for this current lockout (now if he could just channel that energy into properly marketing the game and making it better!) However, on the flip side, Bob Goodenow rested on his laurels and he's in between a rock and a hard place right now with very limited actions available to him. Once this lockout thing is resolved, or in order to resolve this lockout thing, Bob Goodenow's head will roll.

While I appreciate your optimism, I must disagree with the first part of your argument. The players ARE that stupid. Maybe its not thier fault. Maybe, just maybe they have been brainwashed by Goodenow. I dont see anything getting done simply because of how excessively stubborn both sides seem to be. I know both have made some concessions but the players HAVE to know by now that they are fighting a losing battle. That is how i can justify saying that they ARE that stupid. If they know this, why not just take what the league is offering because if Bettman gets his impasse, the cap will not be 38 ( as talked about in the last meeting ) mil i can guarantee that. The cap will be more like the 31 mil that Bettman was talking about earlier in these so called " negotiations ". That said, I dont think we will be seeing NHL hockey this year but i WOULD support replacement players next year if it comes to that. I have been going to AHL games this year and these kids can flat out play. People are under the impression that these minor leaguers would not be up to par with the NHL'ers but these kids are the future of the NHL and unlike some of the superstars in the NHL, they dont takes shifts and especially nights off. I do agree with the point you made about the NHL taking 5 to 10 years to recover though. If this season could miraculously be saved, i dont think the fallout will be too bad but to whipe out a whole season would devastating for the upcoming years.

 

[nyr7andcounting]

While I appreciate your optimism, I must disagree with the first part of your argument. The players ARE that stupid. Maybe its not thier fault. Maybe, just maybe they have been brainwashed by Goodenow. I dont see anything getting done simply because of how excessively stubborn both sides seem to be. I know both have made some concessions but the players HAVE to know by now that they are fighting a losing battle. That is how i can justify saying that they ARE that stupid. If they know this, why not just take what the league is offering because if Bettman gets his impasse, the cap will not be 38 ( as talked about in the last meeting ) mil i can guarantee that. The cap will be more like the 31 mil that Bettman was talking about earlier in these so called " negotiations ". That said, I dont think we will be seeing NHL hockey this year but i WOULD support replacement players next year if it comes to that. I have been going to AHL games this year and these kids can flat out play. People are under the impression that these minor leaguers would not be up to par with the NHL'ers but these kids are the future of the NHL and unlike some of the superstars in the NHL, they dont takes shifts and especially nights off. I do agree with the point you made about the NHL taking 5 to 10 years to recover though. If this season could miraculously be saved, i dont think the fallout will be too bad but to whipe out a whole season would devastating for the upcoming years.

I don't see how anyone could blame the players for what they've done thus far. It's tough when you get locked out by your employer, you can't expect them to give in to whatever the NHL offers.

The one point you are not getting is that Bettman hasn't won an impasse yet. IF he wins an impasse than the players will have lost the battle and yes, the cap won't be as high as the $38 million that was proposed by the NHL. But at this point it doesn't look like the NHL is going to win an impasse, so it is the right move for the players to not give in. If the NHL finally makes a good offer in the near future than I bet the players accept it, because at that point they would most likely lose in court anyway. But, until that happens theres not much the players can do.

 

[likea]

The NHL will win an impasse...and they have proposed a full CBA....show me proof that they have not

they just have not made it public like the NHLPA did

the 24% give back was a joke of an offer and did nothing to solve the problems of the league...

 

[GKJ]

3. Bob Goodenow will be relieved of his duty. After the 1994 lockout, Gary Bettman has done a pretty good job of ensuring that the owners are ready for this current lockout (now if he could just channel that energy into properly marketing the game and making it better!) However, on the flip side, Bob Goodenow rested on his laurels and he's in between a rock and a hard place right now with very limited actions available to him. Once this lockout thing is resolved, or in order to resolve this lockout thing, Bob Goodenow's head will roll.

Is this why Bettman renewed the CBA twice since 1994, said that the owners shouldn't complain about it since they agreed to it and claimed that it was working as recent as 2001?


Meanwhile....back in reality....

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

Is this why Bettman renewed the CBA twice since 1994, said that the owners shouldn't complain about it since they agreed to it and claimed that it was working as recent as 2001?


Meanwhile....back in reality....

This CBA negotiation is supposed to be about saving the league.

And you've listed one of my top 10 reasons why Bettman's lockout is a 100 percent sham.

If things are so bad now that owners are willing to throw away an entire season or more and hire scummy scabs to wear NHL jerseys, how did we get here.
IMO, a full year of lockout and starting the next season with scabs could produce irreparable damage to the NHL. Especially the lockout part of the equation.

People have been calling 2004 armegeddon since long before the last CBA was signed.
Bettman recklessly signed the last agreement without so much as a peep, preparing for this season-long lockout.

Then he made UNREASONABLE demands. Unreasonable by any standards, particularly when you consider that he skated right by his last chance to begin to fix problems with the NHL's economic problems.

Seems to me that if the owners were willing to negotiate, they could have agreed to a 3 or 4 year deal that would begin to make some sense of the league's finances.
He could have done so with a month or two lockout.

I think a THN writer said something like this: "He's trying to hit a 450 homer when all he needs is a two-run single."

My question is this: What happens if he whiffs? WHat happens if he loses?

 

[MojoJojo]

If by January, you mean January of 2006, then maybe.

 

[thinkwild]

The 24% rollback shows the players are serious and want to adress problems the NHL has. They are willing to make huge concessions almost unheard of. They have known from the start they must make concessions. They will go very far to try and negotiate something. They really want to play. Bettmans period of reflection has enhanced this. IF the NHL cant negotiate a deal with such a compliant partner... There is a deal here. Lets hope the owners want to find it and all the rhetoric has been just that. ITs hard to see anything the owners or Bettman have done that would give rise to optimism. Hopefully its just good hardball typical of labour negotiation. Both sides have well established their hard lines for the 11th hour compromises.

Bettman seems to want to let the season slip away first. The suspected drop dead date of Jan 14th will probably not clarify anything at all. Pretty soon players like Richards and Lecavalier will commit to playing the rest of the season in Europe.

 

[Stephen]

F*ck the NHL and the NHLPA. I love how they're going all World War 2004 over profits when they completely shaft their revenue source: the fans. I'd love it if the fans stayed away in droves and reduced this bush league operation to a CFL level subsistence, Bob Goodenow loses players support and Gary Bettman is out of a job. Again, thanks for nothing, NHL.

 

[iagreewithidiots]

scummy scabs

The only scummy scabs I see are the NHL players taking jobs away from other players in the various other leagues around the world.

Any little bit of support I may have given the NHLPA went out the window the day players started being no better then scabs.

I hope the "union" is smashed to bits.

 

[thinkwild]

The fans in Europe seem to be really loving all these players coming over and playing for their teams. Many are hoping the lockout continues. The NHL players playing in Europe are not scabs, as their is no picket lines in Europe. Obviously anyone suggesting otherwise is attempting some fancy spin, lame as it is.

I noticed Mcreary reffing a Spengler cup game. NO comments?

 

[rt]

F*ck the NHL and the NHLPA. I love how they're going all World War 2004 over profits when they completely shaft their revenue source: the fans.

My friend, truer words have never been typed.

 

[djhn579]

The fans in Europe seem to be really loving all these players coming over and playing for their teams. Many are hoping the lockout continues. The NHL players playing in Europe are not scabs, as their is no picket lines in Europe. Obviously anyone suggesting otherwise is attempting some fancy spin, lame as it is.

I noticed Mcreary reffing a Spengler cup game. NO comments?

Talking about fancy spin, your going to make a case for one official working in a 6 day tournament?

And, upon further investigation, he is not taking anyones job to do this...

The NHL has been asked for many years past, to supply one NHL Referee to help officiate this Tournament. Past NHL Referees to work this Tournmant during the NHL Season, have included Lance Roberts, Blaine Angus and Kevin Maguire.

http://www.nhlofficials.com/display_news.asp?articleID=96

At any rate, their statement did not say anything about working tournaments...

With the possibility of a disruption of the upcoming NHL Regular Season, the NHLOA would like all Amatuer and Professional Hockey Officials to know that our Membership will NOT replace any fellow Officials in any League, if NHLOA Members are without work.

http://www.nhlofficials.com/display_news.asp?articleID=85

 

[Fish on The Sand]

The 24% rollback shows the players are serious and want to adress problems the NHL has. They are willing to make huge concessions almost unheard of. They have known from the start they must make concessions. They will go very far to try and negotiate something. They really want to play.

Massive bribe, not a concession at all, just a massive bribe.

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

The only scummy scabs I see are the NHL players taking jobs away from other players in the various other leagues around the world.

Any little bit of support I may have given the NHLPA went out the window the day players started being no better then scabs.

I am of two minds on this.
1> I am dismayed that NHLers are pushing other hockey players out of jobs, even if I'm glad to see that they are committed to staying in shape (it ain't for money, that's for sure)
2> Europeans having been pushing North Americans out of jobs for years. And besides, it's about time Euros got to see some of the best players on earth in their backyard.

In the end, I'm still opposed to NA players playing in Europe.
If you want to play, play locally for charity. There are a thousand charities that could use the help.
A working Euro vacation wouldn't be so bad if you weren't taking needed money from guys just trying to make a living.

So in this instance, I think the players are flat out wrong (the ones who've taken spots on Euro rosters).

Doesn't change my overall view on Bettman's Plot To Destroy Hockey

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

Massive bribe, not a concession at all, just a massive bribe.

Disingenious, not a genuine post, just disingenious.

 

[DownFromNJ]

I'm willing to bet that in the long run Euro-league players will benefit from the lockout. Sure, they may be out of the job for a season, but the game's popularity can't hurt with all the hometown heros coming back.

 

[OlTimeHockey]

Are we talking about the portion of the NHLPA members who have contracts that gave up 24%? There are, what, a dozen who will give up 24% three or four years from now? Half the players will get offers and demand more, and eventually (I said about four years), the average payroll figures would be right around where they were last season. Salaries will inch up higher within six years.

That was the NHLPA's 24% in my eyes.

The players would give up a few players salaries short term and raise their own eventually.

Only poor saps like Yashin (ONLY making $8.36M in a few years after the "offer") and Jagr and a handful of others will have given up anything. Everyone else will be welcome to business as usual.

And fans will be asked to pay more. For tickets, Center Ice, parking, licensed apparel and ultimately for the agents' new cars/boats/houses/mistresses/alcohol/drugs/clothing/office space/etc.

Gotta make that 3-6% on the front end count.


That's not saying Bettman shouldn't be drawn and quartered by raffle winning fans in a gala festivity involving clown suits and baloons and Goodenow forced to catch anthrax infected lawn darts from angry fans. (My melodramatic euphoria)


sorry, ranting. Back to watching celebrity b-movie actor bowling (my NHL replacement sport of choice).......Carrot Top might be on. I'm excited. Uh, woo, uh, hoo.