Blues Offense / Defense vs other teams

[KingBran]

So just looking at the standings and as of right now and some interesting notes:

- Blues are 3rd in the central with 83 points, 2 points out of first (CHI)

- Blues have the second worst goal differential of all playoff teams in the league at +4 (DET -5 WAS +62 for the lead (Also COL is tied with MIN but out of the playoffs, Their goal differential is -11))

- Blues have 166 goals. Vs playoff teams Only ANA (161) and DET (163) have less goals.

- Though ANA has less goals (161) their differential is +14. 10 goals better than STL.

- ALL teams that are out of the playoff are negative in goal differential (DET and COL (out but tied with MIN who is in) are the only teams in the playoffs that have a negative differential.)

- 7 Other playoff teams have allowed more goals than the Blues. 8 have allowed less.


https://www.nhl.com/standings


My takeaway here is that our D is not as good as we thought / as it has been. Our Goaltending has been fantastic all season yet were struggling in the differential department. Which we can attribute to lack of scoring as well since we are on the bottom end of that part of it. Which is concerning because the teams that make the playoffs but are in the bottom half of scoring rarely ever go far. More concerning is that these issues were not addressed in the off-season or by the trade deadline.

Just wanted to point out some team stats when it comes to offense and defense.

Click to read more...

 

[SirPaste]

Everyone knows that our offense is brutal. Our D hasn't been up to snuff this year either due to goalie injuries, extended injuries to both Petro and Shatty, Bouw refunding his game, and counting on 2 rookies every night. All in all I think it's fine, the only thing that will hold this team back is its lack of goal scoring, as has been the problem the last several years

 

[ManyIdeas]

I still believe it's a system issue instead of a player issue.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

As Easton has alluded to more than once, I don't think the defense is being properly utilized. It's easily our greatest strength (transition and puck moving ability), and Hitch is neutering their possible impact. He needs to turn them loose, especially Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, and Parayko.

 

[Robb_K]

I still believe it's a system issue instead of a player issue.

I do too.

 

[carter333167]

^^Yep...at the very least, the system is what needs to be changed to see if it makes a difference.

I get the sense that some of the players are a bit numb to Hitch. I think they flat out quit on him against the Wild last year. Tank seems to be doing what he wants on the ice at this point...even heard Stastny make a comment in a post game interview that raised an eye brow.

 

[carter333167]

As Easton has alluded to more than once, I don't think the defense is being properly utilized. It's easily our greatest strength (transition and puck moving ability), and Hitch is neutering their possible impact. He needs to turn them loose, especially Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, and Parayko.

Parayko should be put permanently on the right side and told to shoot most every time he has an opening.

His shot velocity causes many fat rebounds just outside the crease...even Lundvquist was having trouble smothering his initial shot and I think he is the best in the business in that area.

Honestly, I don't think we even have a consistent system anymore.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Parayko should be put permanently on the right side and told to shoot most every time he has an opening.

His shot velocity causes many fat rebounds just outside the crease...even Lundvquist was having trouble smothering his initial shot and I think he is the best in the business in that area.

Honestly, I don't think we even have a consistent system anymore.

He needs to work on getting his shot off faster. There are times where he simply takes too long to get it off.

 

[KingBran]

^^Yep...at the very least, the system is what needs to be changed to see if it makes a difference.

I get the sense that some of the players are a bit numb to Hitch. I think they flat out quit on him against the Wild last year. Tank seems to be doing what he wants on the ice at this point...even heard Stastny make a comment in a post game interview that raised an eye brow.

Thought I read somewhere that Frank has a free pass and is not obligated to play Hitch's game. Forget where I heard that but they said Frank is allowed to play "outside the box" of what Hitch has set fourth for every other player.

 

[Brian39]

I'm not worried about our D. Defensively, our D has been above average to good this year. Nothing amazing, but our D's strength is in transition, which they have still been good at this year. Considering injuries and the fact that we are giving a rookie 19:30 a night, I'm pretty satisfied with the D. Our goals against has certainly been helped by very good goaltending, but that is true of every team above us as well. 9 of the top 10 teams in GA/game have at least 1 goalie with a SV% of .920 or higher. The only exception is Minnesota at 10th, and Dubnyk is rocking a .918.

The offense is much more concerning and will be our undoing unless it heats up. Our D and goaltending are both sufficient for a decent playoff run, but we need our offense to be at least decent. If our offense was simply average, we would have about 13 more goals this year, which would put our differential at +17. That would be about middle of the pack for playoff teams and is about what you would expect given our record.

Edit: and count me among those that think the problem is the system (or lack of one). There is just too much talent on this team to be 24th in the league in goals per game. I realize that a lot of that talent has been injured through long stretches, but the lineup most nights has enough talent to at least be average. Our play with the goalie pulled really illuminates this problem to me. We have almost no structure, we struggle to get the puck on goal and we almost always cough the puck up after 15-20 seconds of perimeter play. I use my NHL.TV account almost nightly to watch games around the league and we are the only team that struggles this badly with the goalie pulled. New Jersey, the worst offense in the NHL, has structure and a plan with the extra attacker. It is centered around rebounds, crease crashing and ugly goals, but it is a plan. I don't think that is a player personnel issue.

 

[carter333167]

He needs to work on getting his shot off faster. There are times where he simply takes too long to get it off.

Agreed---I've noticed it more later in the season than early in the season. It's really the only troubling development I've seen in Parayko and I think it is even more pronounced when he is on the left side...one reason I hate to see him played there....a kid that oozes confidence shouldn't be put in a spot where doubt can creep in this early in his NHL career.

One of the coaches needs to direct him to just shoot it the second he sees an opening before he develops a bad habit of double and triple clutching. The double and triple clutch has become Petro's hallmark (don't want to see it happen with Parayko) and it makes me wonder if some of it isn't a problem with Hitch and his assistants.

 

[medkit]

If this team played that same Wild series again, they'd lose it the exact same way. There's just nothing going on with the offense and if a playoff-calibre team with a #1D plays conservative and focuses Tarasenko I don't see where the goals are going to come from. Even in a 5 on 3 or 6 on 5 I'll just see the defense set up in the slot and the Blues will stand and pass it around the perimeter. Yet the other team will inevitably get a couple per game and that should be enough.

Rooting for the opposite of course.

 

[MissouriMook]

He needs to work on getting his shot off faster. There are times where he simply takes too long to get it off.

I think he is falling into the same trap as Petro. It seems as though he is being coached (like all of our other players) to allow the screen to develop to take away the goalie's eyes. As we have seen over and over again, most of these shots don't get through and even when they do the goalie has had the opportunity to be in the right position to stop even the shots they can't see. I agree that he should just let it rip. Hopefully he works with Chopper (and maybe even Hull) on developing his one-timer skills.

BTW, I bring up Petro in this conversation because I am beginning to lean more and more to the system being the root cause of Petro's inability to get pucks on net. He just seems like more of a "shoot to daylight" kind of point man which, combined with the Hitch mandate to allow traffic in front before shooting, moves the daylight wide of the net. Sorry for digressing; just a theory.

 

[67Blues]

The defense is best when it is one pass across their blueline and they go on the attack. Unfortunately, teams that give the Blues fits are those that forecheck hard and force the Blues to make two passes out of their zone or try and carry it causing a defensive zone turnover. I'm basically describing most playoff hockey schemes unfortunately.

The offense tends to be to careful once they enter the zone which typically results in a lot of possession time but no, or one and done scoring chances. Any good team will gladly let you cycle the puck on the half boards and just wait for a mistake, or let you take those odd angle shots that the goalie can easily stop and divert the rebound back into the corner and let their defensemen go after it. You just don't see many Blues chances coming from the slot where those juicy rebounds come from.

It isn't the players, it is Hitch's possession first, zone time first, scoring changes and after thought system. The players know that a shot on the net could result in the puck going the other way after the rebound and that isn't Hitch hockey. The look too much for the perfect pass, that top corner pick and waste simple opportunities to go into the dirty areas and fight for the rebound.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

The defense is best when it is one pass across their blueline and they go on the attack. Unfortunately, teams that give the Blues fits are those that forecheck hard and force the Blues to make two passes out of their zone or try and carry it causing a defensive zone turnover. I'm basically describing most playoff hockey schemes unfortunately.

The offense tends to be to careful once they enter the zone which typically results in a lot of possession time but no, or one and done scoring chances. Any good team will gladly let you cycle the puck on the half boards and just wait for a mistake, or let you take those odd angle shots that the goalie can easily stop and divert the rebound back into the corner and let their defensemen go after it. You just don't see many Blues chances coming from the slot where those juicy rebounds come from.

It isn't the players, it is Hitch's possession first, zone time first, scoring changes and after thought system. The players know that a shot on the net could result in the puck going the other way after the rebound and that isn't Hitch hockey. The look too much for the perfect pass, that top corner pick and waste simple opportunities to go into the dirty areas and fight for the rebound.

Hitch just needs to go.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I think he is falling into the same trap as Petro. It seems as though he is being coached (like all of our other players) to allow the screen to develop to take away the goalie's eyes. As we have seen over and over again, most of these shots don't get through and even when they do the goalie has had the opportunity to be in the right position to stop even the shots they can't see. I agree that he should just let it rip. Hopefully he works with Chopper (and maybe even Hull) on developing his one-timer skills.

BTW, I bring up Petro in this conversation because I am beginning to lean more and more to the system being the root cause of Petro's inability to get pucks on net. He just seems like more of a "shoot to daylight" kind of point man which, combined with the Hitch mandate to allow traffic in front before shooting, moves the daylight wide of the net. Sorry for digressing; just a theory.

That's an interesting point of view, and one that I agree with to a certain extent. There are times when you want to wait for the traffic, but others when you want to fire it right away. It sure feels like they are being coached to wait at al costs. The frustrating part is that Parayko's shot is good enough to beat a lot of goalies clean if he gets it off quick.

 

[67Blues]

Hitch just needs to go.

I should have saved a lot of typing and been as succinct as you were

 

[KingBran]

Hitch just needs to go.

Kind of where I am at.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

I should have saved a lot of typing and been as succinct as you were

I was simply responding to the depressing nature of all those facts you listed about Hitch's system as a whole and why it fails in today's league.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

This is why I love this board. Great posts all around filled with numbers, facts, strong conjectures, and valid reasoning.

How are we so incapable of scoring with three elite wingers (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen), 3 good-great centers (Lehtera, Stastny, Backes), and excellent PMD (Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Parayko, Bouwmeester, Gunnarsson)?

It must be the system, and what's worse is that most of us have known this for the last two years if not more.

 

[MissouriMook]

This is why I love this board. Great posts all around filled with numbers, facts, strong conjectures, and valid reasoning.

How are we so incapable of scoring with three elite wingers (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen), 3 good-great centers (Lehtera, Stastny, Backes), and excellent PMD (Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Parayko, Bouwmeester, Gunnarsson)?

It must be the system, and what's worse is that most of us have known this for the last two years if not more.

I agree that the system appears to be the main culprit, but there are some other factors to consider:

1. I would mildly disagree with your assessment of our centers. I think we have three good centers but I wouldn't consider any of the three to be great.

2. We have seen over the last three years that while we have some great players on this team, we have very few that elevate their game the way champions do in the playoffs.

3. This team appears on the surface to be mentally fragile on a collective basis. That is not to say that all players fit into this category, but it seems that when things don't quite go our way in the playoffs, the team as a whole plays worse and not better. Some of the fragility may be due to how they are coached, but I believe that for the most part the players need to be accountable to how they respond to adversity.

I think all three of these factors (and there may be more) are secondary reasons (behind the coaches' system) why we have seen a team over the last few years that has developed into a regular season powerhouse and a playoff flop.

 

[Multimoodia]

This is why I love this board. Great posts all around filled with numbers, facts, strong conjectures, and valid reasoning.

How are we so incapable of scoring with three elite wingers (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen), 3 good-great centers (Lehtera, Stastny, Backes), and excellent PMD (Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Parayko, Bouwmeester, Gunnarsson)?

It must be the system, and what's worse is that most of us have known this for the last two years if not more.

Not sure I can agree with any winger other than one being elite, nor do I rate the centres very high...Staz is good as is Lehtera...Backes was good.
PMDs though...yes.
Puzzled as to how the Blues can be as poor as they are at scoring...yes.

Ultimately coming to the decision that Hitchcock needs to find other employment after this season: Most definitely.

 

[Multimoodia]

Also the reason the team flops in the playoffs every year is to ensure that they proudly live up to the level those previous bastions of greatness did.

 

[Frenzy31]

So just looking at the standings and as of right now and some interesting notes:

- Blues are 3rd in the central with 83 points, 2 points out of first (CHI)

- Blues have the second worst goal differential of all playoff teams in the league at +4 (DET -5 WAS +62 for the lead (Also COL is tied with MIN but out of the playoffs, Their goal differential is -11))

- Blues have 166 goals. Vs playoff teams Only ANA (161) and DET (163) have less goals.

- Though ANA has less goals (161) their differential is +14. 10 goals better than STL.

- ALL teams that are out of the playoff are negative in goal differential (DET and COL (out but tied with MIN who is in) are the only teams in the playoffs that have a negative differential.)

- 7 Other playoff teams have allowed more goals than the Blues. 8 have allowed less.


https://www.nhl.com/standings


My takeaway here is that our D is not as good as we thought / as it has been. Our Goaltending has been fantastic all season yet were struggling in the differential department. Which we can attribute to lack of scoring as well since we are on the bottom end of that part of it. Which is concerning because the teams that make the playoffs but are in the bottom half of scoring rarely ever go far. More concerning is that these issues were not addressed in the off-season or by the trade deadline.

Just wanted to point out some team stats when it comes to offense and defense.

I think we have to keep in mind one big issue: Injuries. Not just the sheer number, we will have less then 10 games this season with a full projected line up. It is the fact that we have missed multiple top 6 forwards and top 3 d at the same time.

Our production is way off from last year primarily due to injuries. Schwatz will wind up playing in 32 games - out of 82. That is well more then half and it likely cost this team 15 goals or so - conservative number. - Steen and Stas likely another 15 between them. That is almost a full .5 goals per game over a season.

Steen will likely miss 20. Stastny has missed about 16 or so. Shatty - another 10+. Those are critical losses. Pie - 9. Bergy will have missed 40.

Take a look at the number of man games lost by Washington/Chicago/Dallas and then look at the players lost for those games.

We have not been healthy. Our PP sucked butt when Shatty was out. All of this leads to scoring problems. You can't miss key players and expect to produce the same number of points or score the same number of goals.

Backes and Brouwer are only players on the roster to have played in all games so far.

I am all for Hitch to be gone, but I have to give him some credit with how we have done this year. Many other teams wouldn't be in the playoffs right now with everything that has happened to the Blues. He has done a good job keeping the team focused and playing.

Let me put it another way, if we had gotten past the Wild then I think fans would have been more positive. But we didn't and Hitch should have been fired at that time.

I think a lot of angst by fans is due to the last post season fracking no show by the team. What they have done this year is pretty darn good. But as a fan base, WE DONT HAVE A STRONG BELIEF that this will do any damage in the post season and most are already looking towards the summer. Right we are very pessimistic due to past performance and therefore we look at things in a negative light- glass half empty type.

 

[medkit]

Not sure I can agree with any winger other than one being elite

I don't consider the LWs to be gamebreakers that will compete for the Art Ross in the mold of a Ovechkin, Kane, Benn, Crosby etc. By that sort of definition I wouldn't put them in the elite group of NHL players.

But I would definitively put them both in the top-15 LWers in the NHL, and in my mind both in the top 10 (maybe this gets harder to argue with the emergence of Johnny Hockey and Panarin). That would imply that both are impactful top-liners at the position. I don't know how many playoff teams could come up with a better 1-2 punch at the position.

Anyway, I agree with the overall point that our top 6 wingers are as good as anyone's (at least it was pre-Oshie trade when we were last in the playoffs), our defense is as good as anyone's at chipping in, and our center depth is strong even if it's not elite, so we should be a lot higher than 24th in scoring.